New R v D Generic Poll out--BIG shift

Hoosierhawkeye

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Sep 16, 2008
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Yes if the laws he proposed allows no restrictions or has a bounties on a person. Or how far further he/she wants to go . Some birth controls are considered abortion. I've seen it argued the pill is a form of it. If they say it will never happen. Well point to the Court's current makeup.

I think if the person is saying that they want to make the pill illegal then you can do that.

I think it's a huge mistake to try to put words in their mouth or just because one person said it operate as if the person you are running against also said it.
 

tumorboy

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I think if the person is saying that they want to make the pill illegal then you can do that.

I think it's a huge mistake to try to put words in their mouth or just because one person said it operate as if the person you are running against also said it.
Works for the GOP all the time. It may not be right. But it works. Gets out your vote.
Remember Pence we're going to overturn Roe vs Wade. Gorsch and Chuggs that's settled law :)
 

Hoosierhawkeye

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Sep 16, 2008
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Me too...didn't expect that much of a shift...pretty seismic...in polling terms.

I'm curious to see how it plays out in the real world. I don't think Generic ballots have been historically all that accurate as to who wins in November.

But it does indicate that there might be some blowback.

My feelings on the matter don't change but the R's might have been better off going off Robert's opinion and working the issue slowly rather than an immediate big change like this.
 
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hexumhawk

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Dems are also more likely to stop the election and see how many votes they need to win. Who knows what staying power this will have? But it seems like the Rs are hellbent on shitting the midterms down their legs. Massive inflation with a recession should be a slam dunk for the minority party.
FIFY
 

Hoosierhawkeye

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Sep 16, 2008
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Works for the GOP all the time. It may not be right. But it works. Gets out your vote.
Remember Pence we're going to overturn Roe vs Wade. Gorsch and Chuggs that's settled law :)

To be fair Kagan at the very least said very similar things about gay marriage before she ruled gay marriage a right.

SCOTUS nominees are basically politicians now who have to play to an electorate of 100 but then get a job for life. They are still coached up on what to say and what not to say.
 

tumorboy

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To be fair Kagan at the very least said very similar things about gay marriage before she ruled gay marriage a right.

SCOTUS nominees are basically politicians now who have to play to an electorate of 100 but then get a job for life. They are still coached up on what to say and what not to say.
To be fair Kegan wasn't having to strong arm votes to get in. Both of them were in a knife fight. Politically speaking. They knew 100% for certain what they were going to do.
 

Titanhawk2

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Jul 14, 2011
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Huge shift in the generic polling.....bigger than I had thought.

Thanks Clarence?


In April, an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found Republicans leading Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, 47 percent to 44 percent. In a new poll from the same outlet — conducted after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. WadeDemocrats now lead Republicans, 48 percent to 41 percent.
You honestly have faith in polls?
 

torbee

HR King
Gold Member
Huge shift in the generic polling.....bigger than I had thought.

Thanks Clarence?


In April, an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found Republicans leading Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, 47 percent to 44 percent. In a new poll from the same outlet — conducted after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. WadeDemocrats now lead Republicans, 48 percent to 41 percent.
Funny how taking away people's rights doesn't sit well with them. Hopefully a lesson the GOP will learn at the ballot box over time. Of course that's also why they are hellbent on gerrymandering, restricting voter rolls, limiting mail-in ballots and generally making it hard to vote -- they KNOW their policies are unpopular and know their only path to continued power (and more taking of rights) is through manipulation not straight democracy.
 

Nole Lou

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Apr 5, 2002
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It's going to take a while for this issue to settle out. A couple years maybe. A lot of people are reacting to thinking that the Supreme Court just outlawed abortion everywhere. Republicans may take the hit on that this November, or people might have a better sense of what this means to them.

A lot will depend on what Republicans to on this, how much restraint and/or political sense they have. If they campaign on a national abortion ban, or 100% banning across every red state, it will be damaging to them.

If they do what Glenn Youngkin did in VA (he's good at politics) who very quickly announced he would be seeking a 15 week limitation like Mississippi, then it's not going to have nearly the impact. Most people are against elective abortions after the early trimesters.

Eventually, states will have laws that more closely reflect the voters of their states, much like marijuana laws.

If the Republicans mainly run on "OK, now we are pushing for a total ban" that will be red meat for Democrats. If Republicans signal the intention to mostly let 12-15 week bans, and force Democrats to try to run on "No, legal late term abortions for all!" then I don't see the Democrats getting any advantage.

The crazy thing is that lots of money comes in from pro-life and pro-choice groups. Neither the "no abortion at any stage" nor "abortion through all nine months" is a popular position with voters. But that's pretty much the cost of tapping that Emily's List or pro-life money. As far as I know, there's no money spigot for "Assure safe legal abortion for the first trimester, abortion with limited exceptions in the second trimester, and only to save the life of the mother in the last trimester", which is the majority opinion in the country.
 
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SIXERS24

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CNN ran a character-by-character comparison between the final ruling and Alito’s leaked draft version, which was dated February 10. Overall, most of the leaked draft remained as written in the final ruling. While some parts were taken out, Alito’s opinion added more to the final ruling — including a critique of the dissenting opinions — than he removed.
 
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That's why the second part of my statement was so necessary. Brand a consistent message (What they have now is a mess when it comes to messaging. What do D's truly believe? Who knows, it's all over the map). Then get someone with some actual ability to move the needle running the House and Senate. Pelosi and Schumer aren't it anymore.
Or just confine your messaging to the issue that is giving you the clear advantage now and nothing more, just a policy vacuum. Just follow the Republican playbook, demonize your political opponents with half-truths/lies and reveal no policy priorities beyond the hot topic at hand. Dems try to be everything for everyone. Instead, be Republican, be absolutely nothing for everyone, the people will fill in the gaps with what they think you will do, even though there is no evidence to support that actually happening.

Republicans win lately by doing nothing. Democrats can win by doing nothing but addressing the hot button only.
 

TylerJ76

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Jun 11, 2021
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Marist had it 47 Democrat 42 Republican on May 17th

This didn't change shit!


The Shift was from April to May that had nothing to do with the Supreme Court

Plus this is the outlier poll anyway.


CNN ran a character-by-character comparison between the final ruling and Alito’s leaked draft version, which was dated February 10. Overall, most of the leaked draft remained as written in the final ruling. While some parts were taken out, Alito’s opinion added more to the final ruling — including a critique of the dissenting opinions — than he removed.

This poll has had the Democrats ahead in the sample ballot for for every month except May 2022 since 2017

This is a very left-wing fringe poll

WRONG Dems were up by 5 Last month.



Tell me you're worried, without telling me you're worrried
 

torbee

HR King
Gold Member
If the Republicans mainly run on "OK, now we are pushing for a total ban" that will be red meat for Democrats.
If?

Clarence Thomas literally wrote that they are coming after same-sex marriage next.

And before you hit me with a "well he's not a politician, he's a Supreme Court justice" let me pre-empt you with this GIF:

giphy.gif
 

INXS83

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Huge shift in the generic polling.....bigger than I had thought.

Thanks Clarence?


In April, an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found Republicans leading Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, 47 percent to 44 percent. In a new poll from the same outlet — conducted after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. WadeDemocrats now lead Republicans, 48 percent to 41 percent.
Keep telling yourself that. LOL

Still 4 months from the election. The average American will shop for groceries 30+ times and pump gas in their car at least 20 times between now and then. That constant and reinfocing pain is going to TRUMP abortion frenzy at the ballot box.

The great liberal American vacation this summer is taking a road trip to a state that allows abortion (if yours doesn't) and thank Joe/Kamala/Nancy/Chuck S. for the high prices every time you eat, get gas or pay a motel bill on your trip.
 

Nole Lou

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If?

Clarence Thomas literally wrote that they are coming after same-sex marriage next.

And before you hit me with a "well he's not a politician, he's a Supreme Court justice" let me pre-empt you with this GIF:

giphy.gif

We will see. They will pay the price accordingly.
 
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binsfeldcyhawk2

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I would bet that most Republicans in office and the think tanks that have been pushing this agenda for decades were under the impression that they would be greeted as heroes by the fictional "silent majority".
I'm not so sure....

I think some of these "trigger laws" in the states were put in place to appease the base but they always had Roe to keep them from happening. Well.....now they got what they "wanted" and will lose "moderate" support as a result. As almost all polling shows...a total ban ain't popular and isn't a winner politically. They made their bad and will have to lay in it...

Limitations? Sure....15 week ban...sure, they can win with that. Total ban is a loser however....
 

binsfeldcyhawk2

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Keep telling yourself that. LOL

Still 4 months from the election. The average American will shop for groceries 30+ times and pump gas in their car at least 20 times between now and then. That constant and reinfocing pain is going to TRUMP abortion frenzy at the ballot box.

The great liberal American vacation this summer is taking a road trip to a state that allows abortion (if yours doesn't) and thank Joe/Kamala/Nancy/Chuck S. for the high prices every time you eat, get gas or pay a motel bill on your trip.
Just an opinion...you could be right. These elections are won by just a few percentage points though. At the very least it tightens things up from what was looking like a sure fire ass whoopin for the Dems...

Guarantee you R leadership is worried....no matter what they say publicly.
 

Jerome Silberman

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Oct 30, 2009
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I'm not so sure....

I think some of these "trigger laws" in the states were put in place to appease the base but they always had Roe to keep them from happening. Well.....now they got what they "wanted" and will lose "moderate" support as a result. As almost all polling shows...a total ban ain't popular and isn't a winner politically. They made their bad and will have to lay in it...

Limitations? Sure....15 week ban...sure, they can win with that. Total ban is a loser however....
It'd be nice if every voter were somehow granted the clarity to know that that is exactly what we had before we allowed The Federalist Society to dictate an entire branch of the government.
 
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Hoosierhawkeye

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F@ck that, he's no sacred cow. Roast him and let America know how calculated this all has been for the last 30 years.

No one is voting for Clarence Thomas because he's not running for elected office. The election in November will be about who is going to be making laws on abortion (The state offices) and who will be confirming future SCOTUS justices (Senate)

Again if this is really as big of a winner as the Dems think it is with the population they should run on this issue heavily and they would win big.
 

nu2u

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Aug 10, 2006
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Ask every candidate for Congress this question:

Do you agree with the Dobbs decision to overturn Roe v. Wade?

This question puts most Republican candidates in a precarious position

Answer YES and defend a widely unpopular political position which will alienate scores of moderate Republicans and independents, espcially women voters.

Answer NO and alienate pro-life single issue religious voters - a large segment of the GOP base.

Answer ambiguously and you will alienate a spectrum of voters but especially the hardcore pro-life religious zealots who will be listening closely to any waivering.

Its a lose-lose-lose proposition for Republican candidates.

Other than a "NO" answer, its not a deciding factor in heavily gerrymandered House districts but for GOP candidates in contested districts and many Senate races, its a hand grenade.
 

sober_teacher

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Mar 26, 2007
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I'd expect that to shrink if the economy keeps hurting but I think the "Red wave" ain't happening.

if for no other reason than gerrymandering, I never really bought the idea of a “red wave”. There simply aren’t that many tossup seats to be had. Enough to give them the majority sure, but nothing like what we saw in 2010 or 2018.