New R v D Generic Poll out--BIG shift

Nole Lou

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Apr 5, 2002
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At the very least republicans are going to have to work ALOT harder in those races than expected, especially in Georgia, which probably represents their best opportunity to pick up a seat. Could open the door to gains elsewhere if they have to spend even more than expected in those seats.

The Republicans likely gave away a golden chance to take the Senate with terrible nominations in Georgia, Ohio, AZ. Could still take those with a true wave election, but I think very unlikely at this point. Maybe if the election had happened three months ago, but this administration seems to be stabilizing. Trump movement keeps on giving, just like it gave the Democrats the Senate in the Georgia runoffs.

One way or another the party has to work through/past this movement to the other side if they want to win. The MAGAs literally don't care whether they win or not.
 

Chishawk1425

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Nov 27, 2019
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The Republicans likely gave away a golden chance to take the Senate with terrible nominations in Georgia, Ohio, AZ. Could still take those with a true wave election, but I think very unlikely at this point. Maybe if the election had happened three months ago, but this administration seems to be stabilizing. Trump movement keeps on giving, just like it gave the Democrats the Senate in the Georgia runoffs.

One way or another the party has to work through/past this movement to the other side if they want to win. The MAGAs literally don't care whether they win or not.
The GOP has no platform and is entirely MAGA Fascist rule. Period.
 

sober_teacher

HR Legend
Mar 26, 2007
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The Republicans likely gave away a golden chance to take the Senate with terrible nominations in Georgia, Ohio, AZ. Could still take those with a true wave election, but I think very unlikely at this point. Maybe if the election had happened three months ago, but this administration seems to be stabilizing. Trump movement keeps on giving, just like it gave the Democrats the Senate in the Georgia runoffs.

One way or another the party has to work through/past this movement to the other side if they want to win. The MAGAs literally don't care whether they win or not.

Agreed, and Ohio is probably the only one I wouldn’t consider a tossup at worst for the Dems.

It seems to be a race between Walker and Oz for who can run the worst race.
 

ZachJump

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Any one could have seen this coming. The second the Roe overturn leaked it was obvious that any momentum Republicans had was over.

That doesn't mean dems have a cake walk....just a much more favorable environment for them to win now than before....and it's all based on that one decision.
 
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ichawkeye

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Any one could have seen this coming. The second the Roe overturn leaked it was obvious that any momentum Republicans had was over.

That doesn't mean dems have a cake walk....just a much more favorable environment for them to win now than before....and it's all based on that one decision.

You mean that one decision on the one topic Republican leaders would never accept, and was then overturned by a SCOTUS that was formed through improper means with questionable candidates by Republicans?
 

ZachJump

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You mean that one decision on the one topic Republican leaders would never accept, and was then overturned by a SCOTUS that was formed through improper means with questionable candidates by Republicans?
I will just say that this was one topic Republicans, for their electability, where better off just talking and not doing
 
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thewop

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No, but maybe it's a topic many non-voters will vote on.
I like that angle, seems plausible. Seems unlikely that many single issue voters who otherwise don't care to vote at all are out there, but they are net-new voters.
 

Firekirknow

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Aug 20, 2013
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At the end of the day 'it's the economy, stupid" rules. Abortion rights (or lack thereof) outrage won't help you put gas in the car, food on the table and clothes on you or your kids backs. The people (D's) who liberalized our abortion laws are the same effers who now have overspent, kept us locked down too long and have extreme prejudice against fossil fuels, ramping up inflation.

Think of the senior voters. Is some blue-haired old gal with a dried up uterus going to lobby a protest vote to the overturning of Roe v. Wade or cast her vote because her social security check isn't nearly paying the bills anymore?
Some people aren’t as selfish as you. Democrats didn’t cause those problems. Republicans won’t fix them.
 

franklinman

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Apr 5, 2011
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anecdotally i think there are many who will. but even if what you say is the case, it may not be abortion that is the overarching issue. weaponization of the supreme court is.
What did you expect when the heritage " so called think tank" foundation picked 3 radical cons to sit on the high court for life ?
 

Jan Itor

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Jan 31, 2009
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Dems are also more likely to vote now. Who knows what staying power this will have? But it seems like the Rs are hellbent on shitting the midterms down their legs. Massive inflation with a recession should be a slam dunk for the minority party.
Wait, I thought there was no recession. ;)

And yes, the Republicans did shit this one away.
 
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sober_teacher

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anecdotally i think there are many who will. but even if what you say is the case, it may not be abortion that is the overarching issue. weaponization of the supreme court is.

I mean, republicans made gaining control of the Supreme Court so that they could overturn Roe a priority for 50 years, but sure, abortion isn’t a voting issue that got people turned out.

Of course the irony to me is, now that Roe is overturned, I think there are a lot of people who voted republican because of abortion who now are seeing what republicans will do in a word without Roe.
 

Jan Itor

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I mean, republicans made gaining control of the Supreme Court so that they could overturn Roe a priority for 50 years, but sure, abortion isn’t a voting issue that got people turned out.

Of course the irony to me is, now that Roe is overturned, I think there are a lot of people who voted republican because of abortion who now are seeing what republicans will do in a word without Roe.
They’re wasting their time and energy voting for Trump backed candidates which, in the end, will cost them their chance at the House and Senate. Deservedly so.
 

Hoosierhawkeye

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Sep 16, 2008
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This, abortion isn't something most people vote on.

I think that's something that remains to be seen. As someone who has many times wanted to get rid of at will abortions, I also have to admit that we are talking about a different environment than we where before Roe was overturned.

Before Roe was overturned a lot of it was theoretical, now we are talking about an election that is going to determine who's going to be making the rules regarding abortion for the forseeable future.

I can't pretend like that isn't going to potentially change how people vote.
 

Jan Itor

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Quite frankly, the republicans need an election they lose that was theirs to win. Perhaps that might be the jolt the moderate wing of the GOP needs to take their party back.
I don’t think it’s the fault of the moderates. I think there are far too many idiots following Trump off the cliff. I get voters were looking for something different, and the way he speaks his mind is different that most other politicians. But this narcissistic POS is not the one they should be hitching their wagon to.
 
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noleclone2

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I am certainly not getting my hopes up, but some recent polling shows the Florida Governor and Marco Rubio Senate seat races tightening, especially the Senate race. These were not even thought to be contests 3 months ago.
 

thewop

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I think that's something that remains to be seen. As someone who has many times wanted to get rid of at will abortions, I also have to admit that we are talking about a different environment than we where before Roe was overturned.

Before Roe was overturned a lot of it was theoretical, now we are talking about an election that is going to determine who's going to be making the rules regarding abortion for the forseeable future.

I can't pretend like that isn't going to potentially change how people vote.
Fair enough, it remains to be seen certainly.

I'm just thinking about it from the perspective of how many voters it truly impacts more than say inflation, wider Healthcare, education, the economy at large, etc. Also, the Supreme Court ruling didn't change a whole lot for very many people.

Abortion is still mostly available to anyone that wants it, and the Supreme Court ruling clears the way for it to be made law properly. Dems won't want to do that until after the election, but it's something that can get done with reasonable affect with bipartisan support.

I think the media value is just greater than the real value, and I don't think Im giving voters too much credit to see that.

Of course, as you say, it remains to be seen.
 

littlez

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Jan 29, 2003
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This, abortion isn't something most people vote on.
BS it’s not. Look at the voter turnout in KS. How can you say that? Any other election year this would be a slam dunk for the Republicans with inflation where it’s at. The momentum for the Dems is definitely on the rise now and Biden is actually getting things passed. And if you don’t think women are still pissed off and energized you can’t read a room. Which is pretty obvious.
 
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nu2u

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Aug 10, 2006
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Fair enough, it remains to be seen certainly.

I'm just thinking about it from the perspective of how many voters it truly impacts more than say inflation, wider Healthcare, education, the economy at large, etc. Also, the Supreme Court ruling didn't change a whole lot for very many people.

Abortion is still mostly available to anyone that wants it, and the Supreme Court ruling clears the way for it to be made law properly. Dems won't want to do that until after the election, but it's something that can get done with reasonable affect with bipartisan support.

I think the media value is just greater than the real value, and I don't think Im giving voters too much credit to see that.

Of course, as you say, it remains to be seen.
What you will see for the next several election cycles are Kansas-style constitutional ballot amendments.

For almost 20 years starting in the late 1980s Karl Rove successfully juiced voter turnout by placing general election ballot initiatives in battleground states regarding same-sex marraige. The initiatives and ad campaigns drove hundreds of thousands of additional dedicated anti-gay voters to the polls. The shoe is now on the opposite foot.

Kansas shows that ballot initiatives protecting reproductive rights will substantially spike voter participation. The KS abortion rights amendment garnered more than 250,000 votes over the the combined vote totals for both governor candidates. That's a political earthquake! .....and it was led by women who, coincidently, represented 70% of all newly registered voters post Dobbs.

Republicans are fooling themselves if they don't believe that abortion rights is a very potent voting issue. Watch GOP candidates in swing districts and state-wide elections scramble to moderate their prior stance on abortion.
 
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