New South Carolina Polls - All Over the Place

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

This thing could get interesting, depending on how accurate the polls are.

SC House Republican Caucus Poll (3,500 polled)
-Trump 34
-Cruz 19
-Rubio 18
-Bush 12

National Research Inc (500 polled)
-Trump 32
-Cruz 19
-Rubio 18
-Bush 8

Marist College (722 polled)
-Trump 28
-Cruz 23
-Rubio 15
-Bush 13

Fox News (759 polled)
-Trump 32
-Cruz 19
-Rubio 15
-Bush 9

Opinion-Savvy (780 polled)
-Trump 27
-Rubio 24
-Cruz 19
-Bush 11

So what happens on Saturday folks? Obviously I think Trump, Rubio, & Cruz will be the top three. One thing I have noticed is the polls that are tight typically poll more "really conservative" voters compared to the others. A lot of the polls have Independents breaking at around 40% for Trump. So the big question is this, since SC is an open primary do independents stay at home? do they vote? Does the upstate/evangelical vote break for Cruz?

 

[naturalmwa]

Are all these polls taken after that last R debate? Assuming so, it looks like those establishment endorsements are helping Rubio.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

Are all these polls taken after that last R debate? Assuming so, it looks like those establishment endorsements are helping Rubio.

It does, especially in the polls where 50% or more identify as really/ultra conservative. Now the polls that have less than 50% of those as the sample are the ones where you see Trump well into the 30's. So what is turnout going to be like? Remember this is an open primary. I think Trump is going to have some trouble in some of the upcoming closed primary states.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

Watching Fox News, they are interviewing a couple SC insiders who are on the ground. They claim it's a race for 2nd place and all the campaigns have been saying this too. So maybe the internal polls show a healthy Trump lead? Who knows...

 

[lucas80]

Charlie Cook was on Hardball and he said the private polling numbers are tighter. The Republican Caucus poll is probably worthless. Turnout as always will be key, and I can't wait for the analysis and spin tomorrow night.

 

[SCHawkFan]

Opinion Savvy was a poll in Iowa that saw the late Rubio momentum and had Cruz basically even with Trump going on the Monday of the caucuses, so pretty accurate. The last Emerson poll in Iowa was the most the accurate in Iowa. In SC Emerson has it Trump 36, Rubio 19, Cruz 18. I went to see Rubio tonight and the crowd was pretty fired up. Rubio, Senator Tim Scott, Governor Haley and Representative Gowdy have been barnstorming the state and it appears as Rubio once again has late momentum.

With all that being said, Trump's crowd of 12,000 tonight in Myrtle Beach shows that it is very unlikely he does not win tomorrow. Best case for the GOP establishment is Trump is kept under 30% and Rubio is 5-6 points behind.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

I think it's tougher to poll an open primary than a closed one.