$$$-NFL PLAYOFF DEGEN THREAD-$$$

[FAUlty Gator]

Early look:

There are 4 “Double Bounce” angle teams this week. And I think I like them all with the exception of the Titans who couldn’t stop a Pop Warner offense much less the smoking hot Ravens.

Colts +7 over Bills
Seahawks -4 over Rams
Titans +3 over Ravens
Bears +10

**The Double Bounce is a matchup between two teams where in the week before one team over-performed and the other under-performed. This can cause a line to be skewed due to recency bias.

These aren’t picks. Just getting the research ball rolling.

 

[wausauhawk]

I'm a big Colts fan. I like them to cover the number. They will achieve this by either jumping out to a big lead & allowing a Bills comeback, or falling way behind before mounting a furious rally that falls just short. Either way, I'm anticipating my heart being ripped out.

 

[seminole97]

I'm a big Colts fan. I like them to cover the number. They will achieve this by either jumping out to a big lead & allowing a Bills comeback, or falling way behind before mounting a furious rally that falls just short. Either way, I'm anticipating my heart being ripped out.

I’m convinced that Philip Rivers has spent half his career down by one score with the ball and less than two minutes to go.

 

[hexumhawk]

I like the Colts with that number and the Bears getting +10. Bears have actually been playing pretty salty FB lately and the Saints have the makings of a disaster waiting to happen. Not calling for an all out upset but I wouldn't be surprised.

I would stay far far away from the Bal/Tenn game.

 

[hawkeyez]

I see the Colts/Bills game playing out one of two ways.

1) Colts commit to giving Taylor 25+ carriers and keep it close
2) Colts get down early (forcing Rivers to shotput the ball all over the field) and Josh Allen steamrolls them by 14+

I think #2 is more likely, so I wouldn't touch the Colts in this one.

 

[WisestIowan]

I took:

Browns +190
Titans +3.5 -110
Bucs -6.5 -180
Seahawks -2.5 -190
Bears +365

 

[Greenway4Prez]

I see the Colts/Bills game playing out one of two ways.

1) Colts commit to giving Taylor 25+ carriers and keep it close
2) Colts get down early (forcing Rivers to shotput the ball all over the field) and Josh Allen steamrolls them by 14+

I think #2 is more likely, so I wouldn't touch the Colts in this one.

Old narratives are hard to quiet, and the notion that the Colts have a “great defense” is no longer true. They’ve been shredded through the air of late, and Buffalo is playing elite offense. Not a great combo. Their ONLY chance is to take the air out of the ball and hope that their defense can get a few early stops. Does Reich have the patience to stick with the running game IF they fall behind? I think he has to, no matter what, because your scenario #2 gives them no chance. Scenario #1, some chance.

 

[FAUlty Gator]

Old narratives are hard to quiet, and the notion that the Colts have a “great defense” is no longer true. They’ve been shredded through the air of late, and Buffalo is playing elite offense. Not a great combo. Their ONLY chance is to take the air out of the ball and hope that their defense can get a few early stops. Does Reich have the patience to stick with the running game IF they fall behind? I think he has to, no matter what, because your scenario #2 gives them no chance. Scenario #1, some chance.

Same thing with the Titans and Ravens. Tennessee has the worst defense I've ever seen in a playoff team. They need to grind it with Henry and Tannehill off the read to have any chance. Baltimore will score every time they touch the ball. The should leave their punter home.

I think my top play is OVER 28.5 Ravens Team Total. They will get close to that in the first half.

 

[FAUlty Gator]

I took:

Browns +190
Titans +3.5 -110
Bucs -6.5 -180
Seahawks -2.5 -190
Bears +365

Are you allowed to cancel action if a better line shows up? If not, I'd recommend to everyone that they wait at least until Saturday morning to put in their action due to people getting put on COVID restrictions like crazy.

 

[WisestIowan]

Are you allowed to cancel action if a better line shows up? If not, I'd recommend to everyone that they wait at least until Saturday morning to put in their action due to people getting put on COVID restrictions like crazy.

No but I took a risk with COVID because I didn't see any of those moving in my direction but, rather, if they moved they would move the other way.

 

[Greenway4Prez]

Same thing with the Titans and Ravens. Tennessee has the worst defense I've ever seen in a playoff team. They need to grind it with Henry and Tannehill off the read to have any chance. Baltimore will score every time they touch the ball. The should leave their punter home.

I think my top play is OVER 28.5 Ravens Team Total. They will get close to that in the first half.

The Titans took out Baltimore last year because they had a good defense.

Yeah, not so much this year. I don’t see this game being close, honestly.

 

[FAUlty Gator]

Saturday Free Money 10 Point Tease
Bills +3.5
OVER Bills 41.5
UNDER Rams 52.5

Still love Ravens over 28.5 team total tomorrow

 

[ICWestfan]

Saturday Free Money 10 Point Tease
Bills +3.5
OVER Bills 41.5
UNDER Rams 52.5

Still love Ravens over 28.5 team total tomorrow

Did a 3 team 6 pt tease with Bucs, Bills, and Saints.

Looking at-
Sea/LAR U
WFT/Bucs U
Pit/Cle U


Question for those with DraftKings - Do you see a prop bet picking SB champ to beat certain teams? If you think the Bills vs GB in the Super bowl they had odds of 20-1 Bills over GB and 20-1 GB over Bills. I think it was their site so if that is a prop you might be interested in, check it out.

 

[fivecardstud14]

Got Steelers (-4) early in the week before it changed.

 

[Bank of Hawk]

Who likes the Colts here?

 

[FAUlty Gator]

Who likes the Colts here?

I don’t hate them to cover.

 

[ICWestfan]

I don’t hate them to cover.

Meh, Buffalo is rolling and Indy's D has been hot garbage the last 9 games. Pass on this one.

 

[FAUlty Gator]

Meh, Buffalo is rolling and Indy's D has been hot garbage the last 9 games. Pass on this one.

I’m teasing Buffalo. I like them to win.

 

[ICWestfan]

It sounds like ASmith won't start for WFT.
Keep an eye on LAR but it sound like Goff may be out.

 

[St. Louis Hawk]

If I had to bet, I’d take Bills and Seahawks and give the points.

But I suck at NFL betting, so I’m waiting for full field golf to start back next week.

Pro tip: The Masters starts in 3 months.

 

[chalupa81]

Put my free $100 play from DraftKings on Seattle -3. Hoping for the best.

 

[SWIowahawks]

I’ve got Buffalo -1.5 first quarter.
Buffalo -3 and Seattle -2 at +158 parlay.
Diggs to score first TD of game.
Also the Draftkings boost is a TD is scored this weekend. Which, the know I’ll just lose it later today or tomorrow.

 

[gusto79]

I’ve got Buffalo -1.5 first quarter.
Buffalo -3 and Seattle -2 at +158 parlay.
Diggs to score first TD of game.
Also the Draftkings boost is a TD is scored this weekend. Which, the know I’ll just lose it later today or tomorrow.

Draftkings also has mystery boosts for each NFL game this weekend. I got Diggs anytime TD at +170 for the first game.

 

[Scott559]

Same game parlay

Colts cover
Taylor over 78.5 rushing
Allen under 303.5 passing

 

[Greenway4Prez]

Bet #1 +320 (free bet from PointsBet)
Josh Allen OVER 307.5 yards passing
Seattle +1.5
WFT/Tampa UNDER 49.5

Bet #2 +140 (with parlay booster from PointsBet)
Buffalo +2.5
LAR/Seattle UNDER 47.5
WFT/Tampa UNDER 51.5

 

[hydro2.0]

Bills -5.5 bought a point

Also took the over in the first game

 

[SWIowahawks]

Draftkings also has mystery boosts for each NFL game this weekend. I got Diggs anytime TD at +170 for the first game.

I got Taylor to score first boosted to +950. Not as good as yours but worth $10.

 

[Greenway4Prez]

I got Taylor to score first boosted to +950. Not as good as yours but worth $10.

I like this. I could easily envision the Colts winning the toss, getting the ball, and grinding 9 minutes of clock with three yards and a cloud of dust.

 

[Bobcat07]

I took Bills -6.5.

 

[Bank of Hawk]

Here’s what I got for parlays:

Ind (+7.5 (bought 0.5)) & Over 50

Bills ML & Over 50.5

Wash +9 & Sea -2.5 & Indy + 7.5

Single bet: Indy +7

.... I plan to watch the ML and make additional wagers in game of course.

 

[Greenway4Prez]

I got Taylor to score first boosted to +950. Not as good as yours but worth $10.

+4500 Jonathan Taylor 1st TD & Stefan Diggs last TD

+12500 Diggs 1st TD & Cole Beasley last TD

 

[TJ8869]

Bills -6.5
Seahawks -3
Bucs win but don’t cover

Titans +3
Saints -10
Steelers -6

 

[Greenway4Prez]

Colts have to be somewhat pleased. If you’re not going to score, then burn 5 minutes and pin them deep.

 

[Greenway4Prez]

+4500 Jonathan Taylor 1st TD & Stefan Diggs last TD

+12500 Diggs 1st TD & Cole Beasley last TD

NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

 

[ICWestfan]

NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

Only prop I've done thus far is LJackson +1.5 TD's

 

[hawkeyez]

+4500 Jonathan Taylor 1st TD & Stefan Diggs last TD

+12500 Diggs 1st TD & Cole Beasley last TD

LOL... That's some true degen stuff right there!

 

[Bank of Hawk]

Here’s what I got for parlays:

Ind (+7.5 (bought 0.5)) & Over 50

Bills ML & Over 50.5

Wash +9 & Sea -2.5 & Indy + 7.5

Single bet: Indy +7

.... I plan to watch the ML and make additional wagers in game of course.

I’ll toot my own horn here .. won em all

 

[FAUlty Gator]

Saturday Free Money 10 Point Tease
Bills +3.5
OVER Bills 41.5
UNDER Rams 52.5

Still love Ravens over 28.5 team total tomorrow

Next Free money tease
Bucs -.5
Saints Pk
Browns +16

And because I put it in after Bucs start I would add OVER Ravens 44

Again...OVER 28.5 Ravens Team Total is where I am.