NFL win total projections for all 32 teams

cigaretteman

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May 29, 2001
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Buffalo Bills


Win total: 11.6


The Bills are in one of the most lopsided divisions in the NFL this year, getting six games against the AFC East. They’ll take on the AFC North, which has two teams in a transitional year and an NFC North division with two teams that could pick in the top 10 come April. With all of the Bills’ talent, despite some challenging opponents early, the Bills should be able to get to the 12-win plateau by season’s end. — Joe Buscaglia


Green Bay Packers


Win total: 11.4


The Packers have won 13 games in each of the past three regular seasons, but there will be a regression at some point, right? Right?! Maybe a small one, but nothing significant. The wide receiver corps is diminished but the Packers should still field a stalwart offensive line, running game and defense. They also have the back-to-back MVP at quarterback and a favorable 2022 schedule. I’ll go 12 wins for the Packers, so take the over. — Matt Schneidman


Dallas Cowboys


Win total: 10.6


The Cowboys have averaged nine wins per season the past five years, but they haven’t had consecutive seasons with double-digit wins since 1996. Combine that with Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith’s recent hamstring injury and taking the under seems like the best bet here. Barring a notable trade to improve the roster, nine or 10 wins seems more likely than 11 or even 12, their total from last year. — Jon Machota




Kansas City Chiefs


Win total: 10.6


The Chiefs have won 12 games every season with quarterback Patrick Mahomes as the starter. Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid have earned the benefit of the doubt, even with this understandable projection. The rest of the AFC West has improved, and the Chiefs’ streak of divisional crowns will end at some point. But the Chiefs are capable of another 12-5 season if Mahomes is excellent, the offense remains efficient even without Tyreek Hill, and the defense creates timely turnovers. — Nate Taylor


Tampa Bay Buccaneers


Win total: 10.5


It won’t be hard for the Bucs to get to 11 wins as long as Tom Brady stays healthy. The start of their schedule is daunting, but they still get the Falcons and Panthers twice, not to mention the Seahawks and plenty of other winnable games. They’re likely to have fewer injuries than they had last year, when they went 13-4, so for them to drop by three wins would represent a significant drop-off. Losing center Ryan Jensen to a knee injury creates concern on the offensive line, but not enough to keep them from 11 wins. — Greg Auman


Los Angeles Rams


Win total: 10.1


This seems pretty conservative, considering the state of largely the rest of the NFC as compared to last season (the Rams won 12 regular-season games). Their schedule is brutal, but the roster is also arguably better than it was in 2021. If Matthew Stafford’s elbow doesn’t become an issue down the stretch, I might hit the over here. — Jourdan Rodrigue


Indianapolis Colts


Win total: 10


This feels like a fair number, considering the AFC West teams the Colts will face this fall. The benefit they have — in theory at least — is three or four wins against the AFC South bottom-dwellers in Houston and Jacksonville. My sense is we’ll get a good feel for whether the Colts might be able to creep into the double digits (11 wins? Even 12?) four weeks in, after they’ve opened with Houston and Jacksonville then face two tough tests against Kansas City and Tennessee. — Zak Keefer


Baltimore Ravens


Win total: 9.9


That seems about right, just because there’s so much uncertainty about who the Ravens will even have available early in the season. So many of their key players who sustained major season-ending injuries last year are either just getting back to the field or won’t be back for weeks or months. They could be vulnerable early. However, they are well-coached and still have a motivated Lamar Jackson and a relatively deep and talented roster. — Jeff Zrebiec


Los Angeles Chargers


Win total: 9.8


I think the Chargers will finish above this number. I had them at 11 wins in my schedule breakdown, and I am sticking with that. The offense is going to be elite. And with the defensive pieces added this offseason, I think they will be dramatically improved in that phase — certainly better than their 26th finish in DVOA in 2021. The AFC West is going to be a bloodbath, but I have the Chargers emerging as victors when all is said and done. — Daniel Popper


San Francisco 49ers


Win total: 9.7


This is a fair number, but because a team must win a whole number of games, we’ll go with the over for the 49ers. Some offensive inconsistency amidst growing pains for quarterback Trey Lance and a new-look offensive line seems inevitable, but the 49ers have a ton of skill-position talent and possibly their most complete defensive arsenal of the Kyle Shanahan era. Ten wins is the baseline for the 49ers if Lance is at least competent. — David Lombardi


Minnesota Vikings


Win total: 9.7


This matches many of the casino odds put forth by Vegas and is not too far from my estimate of 10 wins. It is difficult to model new coaching changes, but there should be some marginal improvement in the Vikings offense and some mixed results in the efficiency of the defense — one that always had better advanced stats than the point totals would have suggested. Though I do expect to see a better team, uncertainty regarding a new coaching staff should be factored in. I’d say this number is basically spot on. — Arif Hasan


Cincinnati Bengals


Win total: 9.5


It’s a reasonable number on the surface, but when you consider the majority of the team’s best players are still approaching their prime and the front office addressed the biggest weakness by signing three starting offensive linemen in free agency, it’s hard to justify picking this team to win fewer games than last year. Yes, the Bengals are playing a first-place schedule and the AFC as a whole got a lot better, but the offense is on the cusp of being elite and the defense returns 10 starters. Bet against Joe Burrow at your own peril. — Jay Morrison


Denver Broncos


Win total: 9.4


I predicted the Broncos to win 11 games following the release of the team’s schedule. Russell Wilson at quarterback means a high floor. In 10 seasons with the Seahawks, Wilson won fewer than 10 games only twice — and one of those was a nine-win season in 2017. The Broncos may be even better defensively than they were under Vic Fangio in 2021, owing to key additions on that side of the ball in Randy Gregory and D.J. Jones. I can see a 10-7 finish for the Broncos, but outside of an injury to Wilson, I have a hard time seeing them falling under the 9.4 number represented here. — Nick Kosmider


more. — Zack Rosenblatt

 
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cigaretteman

HR King
May 29, 2001
72,299
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Win total: 9.4


That’s a fair number. Oddsmakers originally placed the over-under at 8.5 wins, and I looked at that total as too low. I figure the Saints can be a 10-win team and make the playoffs as a wild-card team. New Orleans’ defense should be the strength, so it will come down to offensive pieces like quarterback Jameis Winston and wide receiver Michael Thomas producing. — Larry Holder


Philadelphia Eagles


Win total: 9


At this point, nine wins would be something of a disappointment for an Eagles team with higher expectations. With A.J. Brown dropped on top of an offense that was 11th in offensive DVOA last season and a defense that has improved personnel-wise at all three levels, this is a team with eyes on making a deep run in the playoffs. Double-digit wins and an NFC East championship are what they think should be in store with a weak schedule in a bad division after making it through the summer healthy. — Bo Wulf


Miami Dolphins


Win total: 8.9


The Dolphins have had a winning record and missed the playoffs each of the past two seasons. How painful would a third such season be? It’s easy to get Miami to a 9-8 record — just consider one midseason stretch when they get, in order, the Vikings, Steelers, Lions, Bears, Browns (without Deshaun Watson) and Texans. They could go 5-1 just in that stretch, and they still get the Jets twice. We’ll take the over but might not have if it were a half-win higher. — Greg Auman


Arizona Cardinals


Win total: 8.7


With DeAndre Hopkins for a full season, the over here is a no-brainer. Alas, he’ll miss the first six contests for violating the league’s PED policy. Even so, this still looks like a playoff team. Motivated Kyler Murray has weapons, including close friend “Hollywood” Brown. No doubt, the defense needs to come around, and the schedule is tough, but the embarrassment from last season’s playoff exit still lingers. The Cardinals have something to prove. Expect a strong second half and 10 wins. — Doug Haller




New England Patriots


Win total: 8.6


Even if I haven’t been super impressed by the Pats’ newly run offense throughout training camp, I’m taking the over on this one. It’s hard to bet against Bill Belichick putting together a winning season — he’s had one losing season since 2000, and I’m not figuring on another this year. I think the Patriots defense will surprise people in a good way, and I think Mac Jones will take a jump in Year 2 even if the offensive line and receivers haven’t been great in the preseason. — Chad Graff


Tennessee Titans


Win total: 8.6


This is a pretty easy call on the over, which of course will require Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill to be healthy backfield partners all season. If they are, despite a void left by A.J. Brown and questions at right tackle and left guard, this is a 10-win team. Tight end is upgraded with Austin Hooper, and variety is better at receiver (though Brown’s game-breaking ability will be missed). The thing many are missing on the Titans is the potential for their defense to be outstanding, especially with the corner group improving. — Joe Rexrode


Las Vegas Raiders


Win total: 8.3


It’s not impossible that the Raiders finish with a losing record, obviously, but I’m pretty confident they’ll be a winning team. They’re playing in the best division in the NFL, so the skepticism is warranted, but I view them more along the lines of a 10-win team that will be vying for a wild-card playoff spot. Despite having a questionable offensive line, they should have a top-10 offense following the addition of Davante Adams, and the defense should be good enough to get them over the postseason hump. — Tashan Reed


Cleveland Browns


Win total: 8.2


This is a fair number, and it’s just off the 8.5 most sportsbooks posted for the Browns in the wake of Deshaun Watson’s suspension. In leaning toward the under, I’m guessing the Browns will post an 8-9 record for the second consecutive season. The defense and run game will be strong, but the state of the pass game without Watson and the possibility of multiple transition periods at the game’s quarterback position tell me the Browns will end up under .500 on a rugged schedule. There will be chances for the Browns to stack a few wins and build some momentum early, but unless the defense becomes a turnover-causing machine, I don’t see enough offensive pop to overcome the adversity and uncertainty. — Zac Jackson


Washington Commanders


Win total: 8.2


Washington won seven games last season despite losing its Week 1 starting QB in the first half of the opening game and the defense cratering. The addition of Carson Wentz raises the offense’s ceiling this season, and the coaching staff believes continuity will boost the defense despite edge rusher Chase Young missing at least four games. Is that enough to top 8.2 wins? Um, maybe? This number sounds fair, though RB Brian Robinson suffering two non-life-threatening gunshot wounds adds yet another variable. — Ben Standig


Carolina Panthers


Win total: 7.5


With a motivated Baker Mayfield operating behind an improved offensive line, the Panthers should be better than they were in head coach Matt Rhule’s first two seasons, finishing each with only five wins. The key will be the health of Christian McCaffrey, who remains a matchup problem for safeties and linebackers and is the only Panthers’ weapon to truly worry opposing defenses. If McCaffrey plays 15 games, the Panthers should be slightly over the 7.5. If he’s out for a significant stretch again, it’ll be the under. — Joseph Person
 

cigaretteman

HR King
May 29, 2001
72,299
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113

Pittsburgh Steelers


Win total: 7.1


You may have not known this, but head coach Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record (sarcasm), so 7.1 wins would end that streak. It can be much worse with a tough division and schedule to deal with as they break in a new quarterback behind an awful offensive line. However, the defense is legit, and if they can win eight games with Duck Hodges as the quarterback in 2019, they can win that many with Mitch Trubisky/Kenny Pickett. So I’d go a tad over 7.1 — Mark Kaboly


Detroit Lions


Win total: 6.9


The Lions’ schedule is favorable, the offense should be better, and there’s a little more to work with defensively than last year. However, the depth isn’t where it needs to be to overcome significant injuries and there are plenty of questions that need to be answered with this secondary. A 7-10 season is certainly within reach if a few things go right, but 6-11 is probably the safer bet. I’d go under — but not by much. — Colton Pouncy


New York Giants


Win total: 6.6


This seems like the right total to set for the Giants, as I’ve seen overly optimistic sportsbooks place the number at 7 or 7.5. The schedule is undeniably favorable, and there’s reason to believe the coaching staff — at least offensively — will be a major upgrade. But the Giants have won six or fewer games in each of the past five seasons. I’m skeptical that streak gets snapped in the first year of a rebuild with a very thin roster. — Dan Duggan


Jacksonville Jaguars


Win total: 6.2


Jacksonville will take a step forward in head coach Doug Pederson’s first season, especially on offense, but I don’t know that the Jaguars win more than six games. That’s doubling last year’s total, and they have only seven games that are truly at home, and they have to play the AFC West. That lines up to five or six wins, and we’ll take the under here. If they don’t win the opener at Washington, they could open 0-4 really easily. — Greg Auman


Seattle Seahawks


Win total: 6


Six wins feels spot-on, honestly. Head coach Pete Carroll’s brand of football — which is essentially playing not to lose — will keep his team competitive in most games unless there’s a clear gap in talent between the Seahawks and their opponent, which is perhaps going to be relevant against the Bucs and teams atop the NFC West and AFC West. But the Seahawks will still have problems finishing games, regardless. However, they should beat the other bottom dwellers on their schedule. — Michael-Shawn Dugar\



Chicago Bears


Win total: 5.9


This is probably fair considering the litany of questions facing the 2022 Bears. Though it’s worth noting that the teams ranked 32nd, 31st, 28th, 26th and 25th are all on their schedule, those teams might all be looking at the Bears as a “win.” If quarterback Justin Fields takes off and head coach Matt Eberflus’ defense becomes a takeaway machine, they’ll go over. But the personnel alone makes this number seem right. — Kevin Fishbain


Atlanta Falcons


Win total: 5.8


This feels about right for Atlanta, which looks to be better in several areas, but notably not quarterback. The Falcons traded franchise quarterback Matt Ryan following their failed pursuit of Deshaun Watson. He is being replaced by Marcus Mariota, and maybe at some point this season Desmond Ridder. Both have looked OK-to-good in the preseason, but Ryan is a 15-year veteran and former MVP, so it’s hard not to project some regression. — Josh Kendall


Houston Texans


Win total: 4.8


Winning just four games three seasons in a row is tough to do, but the Texans might complete such a streak in Lovie Smith’s first season as head coach — if not fare a little worse. Houston has swapped out some mediocre veterans for new ones, but the team’s most exciting additions are rookies, who often aren’t impactful. Though the Texans are better positioned for the long term than they were a year ago, a slight step back in 2022 seems plausible. — Aaron Reiss


New York Jets


Win total: 4.7


It’s surprising to me that the Jets have the lowest win projection in the NFL — though if you don’t believe in quarterback Zach Wilson (or Joe Flacco) it’s hard to argue with that. Still, even in the worst-case scenario, it would be surprising if the Jets only won four games. Everybody would get fired and this organization would be starting from scratch all over again. This roster is significantly more talented around Wilson (offensive line, weapons, defense) that they should win at least five games and probably
 

NDallasRuss

HR Legend
Dec 5, 2002
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Dallas Cowboys

Win total:
10.6


The Cowboys have averaged nine wins per season the past five years, but they haven’t had consecutive seasons with double-digit wins since 1996. Combine that with Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith’s recent hamstring injury and taking the under seems like the best bet here. Barring a notable trade to improve the roster, nine or 10 wins seems more likely than 11 or even 12, their total from last year. — Jon Machota

I'm a Cowboys fan and I'll take the under. I guess 9-8
 
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LuteHawk

HR Legend
Nov 30, 2011
28,285
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The Chicago Bears have a soft schedule and need the
new coach to get production from QB Justin Fields.
Yes, defense wins games, but you still need an offense
that can score at least 24 to 28 points a game.
 
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