Buffalo Bills
Win total: 11.6
The Bills are in one of the most lopsided divisions in the NFL this year, getting six games against the AFC East. They’ll take on the AFC North, which has two teams in a transitional year and an NFC North division with two teams that could pick in the top 10 come April. With all of the Bills’ talent, despite some challenging opponents early, the Bills should be able to get to the 12-win plateau by season’s end. — Joe Buscaglia
Green Bay Packers
Win total: 11.4
The Packers have won 13 games in each of the past three regular seasons, but there will be a regression at some point, right? Right?! Maybe a small one, but nothing significant. The wide receiver corps is diminished but the Packers should still field a stalwart offensive line, running game and defense. They also have the back-to-back MVP at quarterback and a favorable 2022 schedule. I’ll go 12 wins for the Packers, so take the over. — Matt Schneidman
Dallas Cowboys
Win total: 10.6
The Cowboys have averaged nine wins per season the past five years, but they haven’t had consecutive seasons with double-digit wins since 1996. Combine that with Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith’s recent hamstring injury and taking the under seems like the best bet here. Barring a notable trade to improve the roster, nine or 10 wins seems more likely than 11 or even 12, their total from last year. — Jon Machota
Kansas City Chiefs
Win total: 10.6
The Chiefs have won 12 games every season with quarterback Patrick Mahomes as the starter. Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid have earned the benefit of the doubt, even with this understandable projection. The rest of the AFC West has improved, and the Chiefs’ streak of divisional crowns will end at some point. But the Chiefs are capable of another 12-5 season if Mahomes is excellent, the offense remains efficient even without Tyreek Hill, and the defense creates timely turnovers. — Nate Taylor
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Win total: 10.5
It won’t be hard for the Bucs to get to 11 wins as long as Tom Brady stays healthy. The start of their schedule is daunting, but they still get the Falcons and Panthers twice, not to mention the Seahawks and plenty of other winnable games. They’re likely to have fewer injuries than they had last year, when they went 13-4, so for them to drop by three wins would represent a significant drop-off. Losing center Ryan Jensen to a knee injury creates concern on the offensive line, but not enough to keep them from 11 wins. — Greg Auman
Los Angeles Rams
Win total: 10.1
This seems pretty conservative, considering the state of largely the rest of the NFC as compared to last season (the Rams won 12 regular-season games). Their schedule is brutal, but the roster is also arguably better than it was in 2021. If Matthew Stafford’s elbow doesn’t become an issue down the stretch, I might hit the over here. — Jourdan Rodrigue
Indianapolis Colts
Win total: 10
This feels like a fair number, considering the AFC West teams the Colts will face this fall. The benefit they have — in theory at least — is three or four wins against the AFC South bottom-dwellers in Houston and Jacksonville. My sense is we’ll get a good feel for whether the Colts might be able to creep into the double digits (11 wins? Even 12?) four weeks in, after they’ve opened with Houston and Jacksonville then face two tough tests against Kansas City and Tennessee. — Zak Keefer
Baltimore Ravens
Win total: 9.9
That seems about right, just because there’s so much uncertainty about who the Ravens will even have available early in the season. So many of their key players who sustained major season-ending injuries last year are either just getting back to the field or won’t be back for weeks or months. They could be vulnerable early. However, they are well-coached and still have a motivated Lamar Jackson and a relatively deep and talented roster. — Jeff Zrebiec
Los Angeles Chargers
Win total: 9.8
I think the Chargers will finish above this number. I had them at 11 wins in my schedule breakdown, and I am sticking with that. The offense is going to be elite. And with the defensive pieces added this offseason, I think they will be dramatically improved in that phase — certainly better than their 26th finish in DVOA in 2021. The AFC West is going to be a bloodbath, but I have the Chargers emerging as victors when all is said and done. — Daniel Popper
San Francisco 49ers
Win total: 9.7
This is a fair number, but because a team must win a whole number of games, we’ll go with the over for the 49ers. Some offensive inconsistency amidst growing pains for quarterback Trey Lance and a new-look offensive line seems inevitable, but the 49ers have a ton of skill-position talent and possibly their most complete defensive arsenal of the Kyle Shanahan era. Ten wins is the baseline for the 49ers if Lance is at least competent. — David Lombardi
Minnesota Vikings
Win total: 9.7
This matches many of the casino odds put forth by Vegas and is not too far from my estimate of 10 wins. It is difficult to model new coaching changes, but there should be some marginal improvement in the Vikings offense and some mixed results in the efficiency of the defense — one that always had better advanced stats than the point totals would have suggested. Though I do expect to see a better team, uncertainty regarding a new coaching staff should be factored in. I’d say this number is basically spot on. — Arif Hasan
Cincinnati Bengals
Win total: 9.5
It’s a reasonable number on the surface, but when you consider the majority of the team’s best players are still approaching their prime and the front office addressed the biggest weakness by signing three starting offensive linemen in free agency, it’s hard to justify picking this team to win fewer games than last year. Yes, the Bengals are playing a first-place schedule and the AFC as a whole got a lot better, but the offense is on the cusp of being elite and the defense returns 10 starters. Bet against Joe Burrow at your own peril. — Jay Morrison
Denver Broncos
Win total: 9.4
I predicted the Broncos to win 11 games following the release of the team’s schedule. Russell Wilson at quarterback means a high floor. In 10 seasons with the Seahawks, Wilson won fewer than 10 games only twice — and one of those was a nine-win season in 2017. The Broncos may be even better defensively than they were under Vic Fangio in 2021, owing to key additions on that side of the ball in Randy Gregory and D.J. Jones. I can see a 10-7 finish for the Broncos, but outside of an injury to Wilson, I have a hard time seeing them falling under the 9.4 number represented here. — Nick Kosmider
more. — Zack Rosenblatt
NFL win total projections for all 32 teams: Experts react to our model
We ran 100,000 simulations to predict wins for every NFL team. Do our beat writers agree with the results?
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