NIL/ Transfer portal = SALARY CAP ???

Aardvark86

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One should not forget that nil is still a fairly new concept. As such is a very immature market, and highly volatile because many nil funders are essentially buying options rather than proven pull through value. at some point that is going to shake out and the market will reach an equilibrium.
 

Old_wrestling_fan

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One should not forget that nil is still a fairly new concept. As such is a very immature market, and highly volatile because many nil funders are essentially buying options rather than proven pull through value. at some point that is going to shake out and the market will reach an equilibrium.
Wisdom. ^^ But I also add that pure market forces may not govern NIL. For instance, if you had enough money that you really are unconstrained in what you choose to do in your life...what's another $50k, or whatever amount, to help your favorite team?

In other words, the source of NIL money is not limited to businesses making logical, investment decisions.
 

Aardvark86

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Wisdom. ^^ But I also add that pure market forces may not govern NIL. For instance, if you had enough money that you really are unconstrained in what you choose to do in your life...what's another $50k, or whatever amount, to help your favorite team?

In other words, the source of NIL money is not limited to businesses making logical, investment decisions.
Agreed. NIL "buyers" are not really "buyers" in the sense of traditional consumers. They are "buyers" who receive services, but are looking to get their ego stroked in a very strange way.

Interestingly though, I do wonder whether there is a practical "cap" to the size of the market. For all of the talk of gazillionaires writing ginormous checks, I can't help but think that there is only so much NIL value to be funded. What will be very interesting in the long run is whether state, federal, or NCAA standards eventually put some some burden, on someone, to defend the fair market value of payments - even the fair market value of what is really an intangible. In other words, I'm leaning toward the idea that this is an arms-race that most large/BiG schools will in fact be able to play in with relative ease.

Also, I am reminded of when our government decided to create national cell phone service on an expedited basis by essentially giving away market licenses for free, by lottery. (No, literally, they did that, and the only way your lottery ticket would be invalidated was if it had a typo, the pages were out of order, or upside down. No, really.) My current senior senator (Mark Warner) made his money by being smart enough to know that all of the little fractional ownership interests in these licenses were eventually going to be gobbled up by big telecom, and taking on the role of "market maker/broker" for such transactions. I do think it's going to be very interesting to see who eventually emerges as a sort of NIL "clearinghouse" -- whether that will be traditional sports agents, advertising agencies, tech, or someone else. That is, frankly, where I think the true genius of the recent initiative by the PSU sports alumni lies. They may well stake out a really strong claim in the space. If anybody out there has a strong entrepeneurial streak and some expertise, this wouldn't be a bad place to invest your time, and then eventually flip it to private equity since they like unregulated investments.
 
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el dub

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I am just going by numbers that I have read. Are these numbers real? I have no idea, but suriano was reported to have received 150K, and RBY Jelly has said to be asking for 165K. Are people crazy enough to give this much money? Well the great Fale had the 660K camp expenses several years back??? not his $$$$ being thrown around so that makes it a lot easier!

Now if I was a super wealthy guy and had some extra cash to burn. Would it be worth it to throw some at the HAWKS? Possible get great seats at Carver, accesses to the coaches and wrestlers B1G and NCAA tickets etc.... I am guessing I would, and I would build a IOWA STYLE Wrestling club and have as many coaches and wrestlers come in to do clinics as possible.

matter of fact, how much do you think this would cost?
Simple. 83% of 660K should be a nice start.
 
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YoungGun07

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The majority of NIL investors are going to need some ROI. Some individuals will go rogue, but the people that need ROI will set the market. After the market matures, the dollar amounts will be a lot more predictable.
 

Aardvark86

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ROI may be measured differently than you are expecting. It could simply be access to the program.
yeah, i think there's actually two tracks here = "real" advertising buyers (some of which will already be using sophisticated metrics from the social/tech world), and "booster" buyers

This is another interesting aspect of the PS alumni platform. While they have a general link to field more significant nil/ad inquiries, they also have a "crowdsourced" element where small donations get the donor various autographed trinkets/memorabilia or similar low level access benefits at different donation levels.
 
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YoungGun07

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ROI may be measured differently than you are expecting. It could simply be access to the program.

Understood, but I'm expecting the super fan that wants access to the program to be a small minority. The investors that need their ROI to come in the form of impressions, marketing, and ultimately revenue will be the ones to set the market.

A social media post will be worth $x, a TV commercial worth $y etc.

If the actual market determines a top wrestler is worth $50k, the guy that wants access to the program may spend $100k because he doesn't care about ROI, but he won't spend $10m, because he isn't stupid, and doesn't have to.

I don't think we should overreact in the next year or two based on rumored dollar amounts.

edit to add: this is my opinion, and it could be worth what you paid for it, but its what I expect to see.
 

YoungGun07

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I would also add that if someone wants to spend a bunch of money for access to coaches and wrestlers, that is likely already happening through RTC's and earmarked donations to the collegiate program.

i.e. I'm sure Bob Nichols can pick up the phone and call Tom whenever he wants already, and I wouldn't expect him to write a huge check to a recruit.
 

Ismellarat

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With the introduction of the Transfer portal and now NIL money in college sports, one of the biggest problems will be with the big schools who have the financial ability to" buy up" so many transfers and entice recruits with the promise of NIL $$$$ that smaller schools will become even more disadvantaged than ever. The 9.9 scholarship limitations have been stretched and contorted to fit into many various formulas and seems to be an outdated system now with NIL money and RTC opportunities to fill in the financial gaps. Should or will there be some kind of Salary cap or spending limit imposed ? if not this will bloom into a full fledged collegiate version of Free Agency.
Once again, this is the law of the land. The Court isn't going to get into the business of limiting what the players can be paid. That was the primary point of the NIL decision.