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Not to go overboard, but how do we interpret this?

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ghostOfHomer777

HB Heisman
May 20, 2014
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https://www.hustlebelt.com/2018/8/2...nois-huskies-top-25-mac-football-players-2018

A quick distillation:
  • Max Scharping is a darn fine player (6-6, 320 - not a small man)
  • Started in 39 straight games (presumably 40 counting the game vs Iowa)
  • In '17, on 425 snaps, allowed only 5 pressures
  • According to PFF, has an exceedingly high pass-blocking efficiency (98.9 in '16 and 99.2 in '17)
  • USA Today lists him as the 6th best O-lineman
What did we see on Saturday?

Hesse had 2 sacks - if memory serves, both while at his RDE spot (feel free to correct me if I'm remembering incorrectly).

AJ Epenesa had 1 sack and 2 QB hurries - also from the RDE spot.

Three sacks and 2 QB hurries just from the right side ... and against a guy with the aforementioned resume? How do we interpret this without getting a little excited?

What's more one of our most disruptive DTs is reputed to be Reiff. When a guy is disruptive, it garners the attention of other O-linemen (and often forces double-teams). If our DTs get a lot of attention ... then our DEs are more likely to be able to come free. I know that if NIU looked at the Boston College game ... that probably made them a little concerned about Nelson and Nelson. Thus, I could understand them being wary of Anthony ... but that seemed to open up other opportunities for Parker and AJ!
 
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ghostOfHomer777 said:
https://www.hustlebelt.com/2018/8/2...nois-huskies-top-25-mac-football-players-2018

A quick distillation:
  • Max Scharping is a darn fine player (6-6, 320 - not a small man)
  • Started in 39 straight games (presumably 40 counting the game vs Iowa)
  • In '17, on 425 snaps, allowed only 5 pressures
  • According to PFF, has an exceedingly high pass-blocking efficiency (98.9 in '16 and 99.2 in '17)
  • USA Today lists him as the 6th best O-lineman
What did we see on Saturday?

Hesse had 2 sacks - if memory serves, both while at his RDE spot (feel free to correct me if I'm remembering incorrectly).

AJ Epenesa had 1 sack and 2 QB hurries - also from the RDE spot.

Three sacks and 2 QB hurries just from the right side ... and against a guy with the aforementioned resume? How do we interpret this without getting a little excited?

What's more one of our most disruptive DTs is reputed to be Reiff. When a guy is disruptive, it garners the attention of other O-linemen (and often forces double-teams). If our DTs get a lot of attention ... then our DEs are more likely to be able to come free. I know that if NIU looked at the Boston College game ... that probably made them a little concerned about Nelson and Nelson. Thus, I could understand them being wary of Anthony ... but that seemed to open up other opportunities for Parker and AJ!
Click to expand...
It’s DTs will not garner attention....especially now our DEs combined for 5 sacks
 
ghostOfHomer777 said:
https://www.hustlebelt.com/2018/8/2...nois-huskies-top-25-mac-football-players-2018

A quick distillation:
  • Max Scharping is a darn fine player (6-6, 320 - not a small man)
  • Started in 39 straight games (presumably 40 counting the game vs Iowa)
  • In '17, on 425 snaps, allowed only 5 pressures
  • According to PFF, has an exceedingly high pass-blocking efficiency (98.9 in '16 and 99.2 in '17)
  • USA Today lists him as the 6th best O-lineman
What did we see on Saturday?

Hesse had 2 sacks - if memory serves, both while at his RDE spot (feel free to correct me if I'm remembering incorrectly).

AJ Epenesa had 1 sack and 2 QB hurries - also from the RDE spot.

Three sacks and 2 QB hurries just from the right side ... and against a guy with the aforementioned resume? How do we interpret this without getting a little excited?

What's more one of our most disruptive DTs is reputed to be Reiff. When a guy is disruptive, it garners the attention of other O-linemen (and often forces double-teams). If our DTs get a lot of attention ... then our DEs are more likely to be able to come free. I know that if NIU looked at the Boston College game ... that probably made them a little concerned about Nelson and Nelson. Thus, I could understand them being wary of Anthony ... but that seemed to open up other opportunities for Parker and AJ!
Click to expand...
A few other additional comments:
  • 3 of NIU's starters on the OL were multi-year starters (their LT, RT, and C).
  • Their RT moved over after having started 2 straight seasons at LG.
  • One of their OGs, had 1 season of prior starts.
  • NIU's final starter on the OL was a JUCO transfer ... and was a first-team all-American (in the JUCO ranks) in '17
Again, the above highlights that the Hawk DL dominated an OL that was both a pretty experienced group ... and also presumably a pretty talented group too. Hopefully they can keep it up! Unfortunately, as past seasons have shown ... the DL sometimes can start off hot ... but it doesn't always last. Hopefully this season is different!
 
I think I heard somebody say if Iowa gets 30 sacks in a season... they win 10+ games...
according to my calculator... we are on pace for 75 sacks this season.

now, I don't expect that many... but I do expect a lot more sacks to come...
we get that many sacks against one of the best... it spells trouble for our remaining opponents.... including Iowa State.

the biggest challenge for our Defense right now, imo, is being able to stop the run... if we stop the run... its lights out, folks.... we got a team.
 
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Sack 1 - A. Nelson beats RT to the inside.

Sack 2 - Radar package. Hesse at DT runs stunt to outside and beats LT sharping. Meanwhile, A. Nelson beats RT straight up. Hesse gets credit, but that was a 50/50 sack, IMO.

Sack 3 - Hesse blows by TE

Sack 4 - Radar package, Welch blitzes up middle and RB whiffs on him.

Sack 5 - Epenesa beats LT Sharping with speed rush to outside.

Should also note, in the next series, Epenesa beats Sharping on an outside-in move and is 1/10th of a second late from another sack/FF.
 
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StallmanCurse said:
Sack 1 - A. Nelson beats RT to the inside.

Sack 2 - Radar package. Hesse at DT runs stunt to outside and beats LT sharping. Meanwhile, A. Nelson beats RT straight up. Hesse gets credit, but that was a 50/50 sack, IMO.

Sack 3 - Hesse blows by TE

Sack 4 - Radar package, Welch blitzes up middle and RB whiffs on him.

Sack 5 - Epenesa beats LT Sharping with speed rush to outside.

Should also note, in the next series, Epenesa beats Sharping on an outside-in move and is 1/10th of a second late from another sack/FF.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the correction .... Hesse's first sack was at DT!
 
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mrF6n6 said:
I think I heard somebody say if Iowa gets 30 sacks in a season... they win 10+ games...
according to my calculator... we are on pace for 75 sacks this season.

now, I don't expect that many... but I do expect a lot more sacks to come...
we get that many sacks against one of the best... it spells trouble for our remaining opponents.... including Iowa State.

the biggest challenge for our Defense right now, imo, is being able to stop the run... if we stop the run... its lights out, folks.... we got a team.
Click to expand...
First off - no offense to your calculator - but do you actually mean 65 sacks? Or were you assuming 15 games?

Also, I think that it goes without saying that it's unlikely for Iowa's sack numbers to keep up that pace. However, I would venture to guess that getting over 30 is very feasible.

Lastly, you hit the nail on the head ... the biggest key is stopping the run. If we can run AND if we can STOP the run ... then that's far more likely to equate to a great season for us. Of course, that is also assuming that we're capable of limiting the big play vs the pass.
 
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I tallied Iowa's QB disruption numbers last year by the DL - and the numbers were MUCH higher than they had been in prior seasons. I calculate the QB disruption numbers by adding the number of sacks, the number of QB hurries, and the number of deflected passes ... and then I divide by the number of games.

It's not necessarily a very complicated metric ... it would be nice to also count the number of times the QB is forced to scramble and is tackled for little or no gain (such plays don't count as sacks - but they still keep the O off-schedule) ... it would also be nice to normalize it by the number of passing snaps (as compared to the number of games). Lastly, it would also be nice to count the number of holding-penalties that are forced too ... because coming free and forcing an O-lineman to hold you can also throw off the O.

With the limitations of the metric now already spelled out ... it's interesting to note that the Hawk DL is picking up from where they left off. Here are the DL numbers:

4 sacks, 3 hurries and 1 deflected pass by the DL

The starting disruption number is 8 per game so far. Last year, through 13 games, the number was 5.1 per game. Anyhow, pretty cool stuff if you ask me!
 
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Aleister_Crowley said:
You're not assuming 15 games?
Click to expand...
Also, going off of what folks are posting about our LBs and WRs ... you'd think that we lost our first game. So yeah ... even I have my expectations measured a little bit ... at least until I see better play from our WRs and LBs.

Furthermore, I need to see our DBs respond when they're actually challenged by a more competent and experienced passing attack. Iowa State will be able to supply such a challenge .... NIU, not so much!
 
ghostOfHomer777 said:
I tallied Iowa's QB disruption numbers last year by the DL - and the numbers were MUCH higher than they had been in prior seasons. I calculate the QB disruption numbers by adding the number of sacks, the number of QB hurries, and the number of deflected passes ... and then I divide by the number of games.

It's not necessarily a very complicated metric ... it would be nice to also count the number of times the QB is forced to scramble and is tackled for little or no gain (such plays don't count as sacks - but they still keep the O off-schedule) ... it would also be nice to normalize it by the number of passing snaps (as compared to the number of games). Lastly, it would also be nice to count the number of holding-penalties that are forced too ... because coming free and forcing an O-lineman to hold you can also throw off the O.

With the limitations of the metric now already spelled out ... it's interesting to note that the Hawk DL is picking up from where they left off. Here are the DL numbers:

4 sacks, 3 hurries and 1 deflected pass by the DL

The starting disruption number is 8 per game so far. Last year, through 13 games, the number was 5.1 per game. Anyhow, pretty cool stuff if you ask me!
Click to expand...
Anyhow, part of the significance of the QB disruption numbers by the DL is that it supplies us with a means of understanding how our DL is helping us versus the pass. Since we're not a big blitzing team, it's always important for the DL to be able to make it hard for the QB to get comfortable.

If the DL is being disruptive against the pass ... and hopefully also doing well against the run ... that might also afford our LBs a little more wiggle room as they're learning to become every down starters. Furthermore, if it also leads to turnovers and fewer points by the opposition ... it also takes a little less heat off of the O.
 
ghostOfHomer777 said:
https://www.hustlebelt.com/2018/8/2...nois-huskies-top-25-mac-football-players-2018

A quick distillation:
  • Max Scharping is a darn fine player (6-6, 320 - not a small man)
  • Started in 39 straight games (presumably 40 counting the game vs Iowa)
  • In '17, on 425 snaps, allowed only 5 pressures
  • According to PFF, has an exceedingly high pass-blocking efficiency (98.9 in '16 and 99.2 in '17)
  • USA Today lists him as the 6th best O-lineman
What did we see on Saturday?

Hesse had 2 sacks - if memory serves, both while at his RDE spot (feel free to correct me if I'm remembering incorrectly).

AJ Epenesa had 1 sack and 2 QB hurries - also from the RDE spot.

Three sacks and 2 QB hurries just from the right side ... and against a guy with the aforementioned resume? How do we interpret this without getting a little excited?

What's more one of our most disruptive DTs is reputed to be Reiff. When a guy is disruptive, it garners the attention of other O-linemen (and often forces double-teams). If our DTs get a lot of attention ... then our DEs are more likely to be able to come free. I know that if NIU looked at the Boston College game ... that probably made them a little concerned about Nelson and Nelson. Thus, I could understand them being wary of Anthony ... but that seemed to open up other opportunities for Parker and AJ!
Click to expand...
One thing to remember is that PFF is notoriously bad at evaluating offensive line play.
 
scotthawk1964 said:
I guess we'll have to see how the season plays out on whether NIU is a good team or not. They are picked to challenge for the MAC, and they have been pretty good against the BiG, so well see. I think our DE's are going to cause fits for most of the teams we play.
Click to expand...
My feeling is that NIU is more limited on O than many folks think ... at least, the version that the Hawks saw. Maybe getting Tears back ... and having their top TE return from from injury ... maybe those factors also ultimately help them.
 
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ghostOfHomer777 said:
If the attentions switches over to our DEs ... won't that possibly equate to more QB hurries and sacks by our DTs?
Click to expand...
Well......sort of. The problem is that you won't see many OG's helping OT's on edge rushes because they are mostly rushing outside shoulder of OT because they still have contain. That means that TE's and RB's will be helping more so than interior lineman. That will still leave 3 OL on 2 DT's. However, Iowa does have a few blitzes from OLB/SS that allows that DE to crash, but is like maybe 5 times a game. What will help the DT's is that DE's force QB to step up into pocket by applying pressure or even the QB getting happy feet expecting outside pressure- they will step right into our awaiting DT
 
milehighhawkeye24 said:
Well......sort of. The problem is that you won't see many OG's helping OT's on edge rushes because they are mostly rushing outside shoulder of OT because they still have contain. That means that TE's and RB's will be helping more so than interior lineman. That will still leave 3 OL on 2 DT's. However, Iowa does have a few blitzes from OLB/SS that allows that DE to crash, but is like maybe 5 times a game. What will help the DT's is that DE's force QB to step up into pocket by applying pressure or even the QB getting happy feet expecting outside pressure- they will step right into our awaiting DT
Click to expand...
Absolutely ... but part of what I was thinking about also related to having the RB poised more to chip the guy on the outside. Furthermore, just as you indicated, I was thinking about the QB being more apt to step up in the pocket. However, with a "quick," high motor guy like Reiff ... he can split blockers and get to the QB who is now a step or two closer to him.

Of course, another thing to consider is that Iowa's DTs aren't exactly short guys either ... so if the QB steps up ... he still has to be able to get the ball through the long arms of Matt Nelson, Sam Brincks, and/or Ced Lattimore! Those batted balls lead to possible picks ... and, most often, lead to a loss of a down.
 
This defense's challenge is to be good on 1st and 2nd down. Because this defense is going be one of the best 3rd and + 5 defenses that Iowa has fielded in the KF tenure. We will be dominant on 3rd and mediums and 3rd and longs.
 
HawkSTL said:
This defense's challenge is to be good on 1st and 2nd down. Because this defense is going be one of the best 3rd and + 5 defenses that Iowa has fielded in the KF tenure. We will be dominant on 3rd and mediums and 3rd and longs.
Click to expand...
You're absolutely correct ... those guys need to EARN their opportunities to rush the passer. However, that requires that they make things tough on the early downs too.
 
StallmanCurse said:
Sack 1 - A. Nelson beats RT to the inside.

Sack 2 - Radar package. Hesse at DT runs stunt to outside and beats LT sharping. Meanwhile, A. Nelson beats RT straight up. Hesse gets credit, but that was a 50/50 sack, IMO.

Sack 3 - Hesse blows by TE

Sack 4 - Radar package, Welch blitzes up middle and RB whiffs on him.

Sack 5 - Epenesa beats LT Sharping with speed rush to outside.

Should also note, in the next series, Epenesa beats Sharping on an outside-in move and is 1/10th of a second late from another sack/FF.
Click to expand...

A correct reference to the radar package. Jules Yakapovich smiles from above.
 
Can't wait to see what Reiff adds to the equation. 4th year, finally at a good weight - Brady is primed to make an impact.

Also, has there ever been a position coach at Iowa more valuable than Reece Morgan? I don't think so.
 
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nu2u said:
Also, has there ever been a position coach at Iowa more valuable than Reece Morgan? I don't think so.
Click to expand...
No. They could stick him at equipment manager, towel distributor, or hydration specialist and he would excel at those positions as well. Dude just gets results, period.
 
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nu2u said:
Can't wait to see what Reiff adds to the equation. 4th year, finally at a good weight - Brady is primed to make an impact.

Also, has there ever been a position coach at Iowa more valuable than Reece Morgan? I don't think so.
Click to expand...
From everything I've heard about Reiff, I'm expecting some pretty big things from him. I'll be curious to see how Ced is improving. He has great explosiveness ... however, he still needs to play with better leverage and technique. If Ced can put everything together in his game, he really has the raw tools to be pretty dominant for us on the interior.

However, as Babineaux demonstrated against Arizona State back in '04 ... if you have a lapse in your technique ... the OL is just going to push you around. That's such a valuable lesson ... because he went on to have something like 25+ TFLs for us that season!
 
ghostOfHomer777 said:
Unfortunately, as past seasons have shown ... the DL sometimes can start off hot ... but it doesn't always last. Hopefully this season is different!
Click to expand...
In the past, I think some of the drop-off was due to a lack of depth. That will not be an issue this year.
 
ghostOfHomer777 said:
Absolutely ... but part of what I was thinking about also related to having the RB poised more to chip the guy on the outside. Furthermore, just as you indicated, I was thinking about the QB being more apt to step up in the pocket. However, with a "quick," high motor guy like Reiff ... he can split blockers and get to the QB who is now a step or two closer to him.

Of course, another thing to consider is that Iowa's DTs aren't exactly short guys either ... so if the QB steps up ... he still has to be able to get the ball through the long arms of Matt Nelson, Sam Brincks, and/or Ced Lattimore! Those batted balls lead to possible picks ... and, most often, lead to a loss of a down.
Click to expand...
Great point- many time DT's are unable to penetrate because it is not easy to do so without some stunts and twists- however, you will see Nelson maintain the point of attack and arm fight so he can disrupt passing lanes......at 6'8" that is pretty unique in the middle
 
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