There's no way you can throw Maples out there in the playoffs. You can't possibly trust him. And I would love to see him succeed, I know as of last year the Cubs internal scouting had him graded out with the best fastball and slider in the entire system, MLB included, but his control has been terrible every chance he's got at the MLB level.
*****Official Cubs 2018 thread*****
- Thread starter QChawks
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There's no way you can throw Maples out there in the playoffs. You can't possibly trust him. And I would love to see him succeed, I know as of last year the Cubs internal scouting had him graded out with the best fastball and slider in the entire system, MLB included, but his control has been terrible every chance he's got at the MLB level.
I think last night pretty much wrapped the division up for the Cubs. It's pretty amazing with all that has gone wrong this year, the Cubs are looking at 95/96 wins, an NL Central title and homefield throughout the NL playoffs. Another reminder that we've come a long way since the pre-Theo days. This has also been Maddon's best managing job yet in my opinion.
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Yep, for all of Maddon's goofiness, the poor effort by Cubs hitters for a couple of weeks (until Phoenix), the lolligaggers, they are still a pretty darn good team and when they want to put it all together they can be downright super.
On the one hand, I'm pretty concerned about the back end of the bullpen for the playoffs with Morrow officially out and Strop officially iffy. And yet, this bullpen has amassed the 3rd best bullpen ERA in baseball and the third-highest save conversion % among playoff contenders (behind Yankees & A's).
We'll see how things go, but the Cubs bullpen just seems to keep finding a way.
I'd even be fine just doing closer by committee and/or riding hot hand. Maybe not having a "closer closes because he's the closer" easily and obviously defined, you just apply the right arm for the leverage of the situation - see last week when Wilson came in with bases loaded in the 8th and nailed down the K to end the inning and then whoever else could come in clean in the 9th and get 3 outs. The "save" was effectively ending the rally in the 8th.
Montgomery is going to be very important in the playoffs, he's going to get some real high leverage relief opportunities.
They have had a lot of organizational depth IMO. When guys like Darvish, Morrow, Bryant and others have spent so much time on the DL, other guys have stepped up and gotten the job done. There are guys in the bullpen I never would have suspected who have risen to the occasion and players like Bote have made major contributions. As much as I question some of Maddon's decisions, I think he has done a masterful job of managing this team this year.
He might be our ace in the hole once the playoffs start.
Another stab at playoff roster:
SP: Lester, Hendricks, Hamels, Quintana (in whatever order)
RP: Edwards, Wilson, Cishek, Montgomery, Chavez, Kintzler, De La Rosa, Rosario
C: Contreras, Caratini
IF: Rizzo, Murphy, Baez, Bryant, Zobrist, Russell
OF: Schwarber, Heyward, Almora, Happ, TLS
Right now, for all his heroics, I think I'd leave Bote off the roster. He has a .489 OPS over the last 30 games. In those late-inning pinch-hit spots, I'd rather roll with TLS right now. If Schwarber can't get his back right, then I'd probably add Gore for his speed. I don't think I'd pull a reliever for Gore right now, but I could see the Cubs making that move.
SP: Lester, Hendricks, Hamels, Quintana (in whatever order)
RP: Edwards, Wilson, Cishek, Montgomery, Chavez, Kintzler, De La Rosa, Rosario
C: Contreras, Caratini
IF: Rizzo, Murphy, Baez, Bryant, Zobrist, Russell
OF: Schwarber, Heyward, Almora, Happ, TLS
Right now, for all his heroics, I think I'd leave Bote off the roster. He has a .489 OPS over the last 30 games. In those late-inning pinch-hit spots, I'd rather roll with TLS right now. If Schwarber can't get his back right, then I'd probably add Gore for his speed. I don't think I'd pull a reliever for Gore right now, but I could see the Cubs making that move.
Not just the organizational depth, but also the depth of flexibility. When I was walking through a potential playoff roster, it almost seems silly to have IF/OF designations for half the guys. The Cubs also should have a lot of depth in the batting order to make pitchers work. Zobrist, Murphy, Rizzo and Bryant are all patient, professional hitters who make pitchers sweat. Javy isn't at their level, but if a starter loses concentration and gives him a mistake pitch, he'll crush it most of the time.
To add to this, Theo's acquisitions of Hamels and Murphy have paid major dividends as well down the stretch. Without Hamels, could the Cubs have relied on Chatwood down the stretch?
I could leave Kintzler off, he's been pretty bad in every meaningful situation he's been in. The bottom of the bullpen is full of some less than ideal choices.
To add to this, Theo's acquisitions of Hamels and Murphy have paid major dividends as well down the stretch. Without Hamels, could the Cubs have relied on Chatwood down the stretch?
No I think there was no coming back for Chatwood this year, he's at least temporarily broken. It would have been Mills or Underwood or some other option that no one really wants to see. Maybe Chatwood can clear his head this offseason, he was at the point where it was just getting worse the more he tried to fix things.
To add to this, Theo's acquisitions of Hamels and Murphy have paid major dividends as well down the stretch. Without Hamels, could the Cubs have relied on Chatwood down the stretch?
Every season, there's at least one formerly good starting pitcher who appears to be about washed up who gets traded for at the deadline and gets completely rejuvenated. Verlander was that guy last year and Hamels has been that guy this year. He's been outstanding and he's pitching like he's 5 years younger. He's really been good enough that the Cubs are likely pondering using the team option on him next year. With Darvish absolutely a question mark and Chatwood making no progress on his command, the Cubs could do worse than to roll out Hamels as the #3/4/5 next year - especially given the fact that the Rangers sent over $10M to cover his buyout, the Cubs won't have much tied up in Hamels.
I could live with that, but you also want to have 1-2 guys in there that you can just burn in low-leverage situations if a game gets out of hand one way or the other so that you're not putting too much burden on the top half of the pen.
my understanding is that the rangers would pay the buyout, but if the cubs exercise the option the rangers dont have to pay anything.
I agree with this, but it's not really only mistake pitches that have Javy hits. He's basically Mike Trout on first pitch fastballs and curves. Anything in the zone early in the count, he pounds. Maddon is really right that if he can just lay off the low and away sliders late in the count, he's Manny Ramirez. And I don't have any numbers but it seems like he is getting better at chasing the really outside stuff, just needs to keep improving this and he's going to continue to get better...which is really saying something for a guy who's high in the MVP conversation right now.
Oh, maybe I misunderstood what I read back around the time of the deal. Still, picking up the option for one more season doesn't seem ridiculous at this point.
Hamels has made this a very tough decision for the Cubs.
I don't disagree with any of this. You're right that he absolutely mashes early in the count. I just meant that while he won't grind out ABs like those other guys I named, even if he's down 0-2, he'll be swinging for the hills and will crush a hanger or a mis-placed fastball.
He's been much better this year about not swinging at junk, but there are still plate appearances that make me pull my hair out when he seems to decide in the on-deck circle that he's going up there hacking at anything.
Yep, that's true, I do find it amusing that he's made a leap not by being more patient as most people suggested but instead getting even more aggressive and swinging at more pitches in the zone than anyone else in the baseball. It does make sense though, he's not a great two strike hitter, so one way to improve that is don't take pitches early in the count for strikes.
I don't think there is any question you bring back Hamels. Is this even a discussion? Who else are you going to go get?
I think you put Bote on the playoff roster. Something about him having that "it" factor in the big moment. Bote is probably good for one walk-off win in the playoffs and he is solid defensively as a late innings defensive replacement. I really like TLS ability to come through with a pinch hit too, so he stays. At this point I would leave Happ off the roster. He's been a human windmill this season.
I think you put Bote on the playoff roster. Something about him having that "it" factor in the big moment. Bote is probably good for one walk-off win in the playoffs and he is solid defensively as a late innings defensive replacement. I really like TLS ability to come through with a pinch hit too, so he stays. At this point I would leave Happ off the roster. He's been a human windmill this season.
While I don't disagree with Happ being a human windmill this year, he's such a versatile player as compared to Bote. I guess we'll see what Bote does down the stretch. He's 6 for 34 (.176) in September with 15 Ks. I'll grant that Happ has also been terrible - 7 for 40 (.175) in September with 18 Ks. I would default to Happ based on him being a more versatile player, but we'll see. I do think that Bote's slump has all but locked La Stella in. Maybe the bigger question is do you leave Happ off for Gore and his elite speed.
If the choice is Bote or Happ I think you have to go with Happ due to his switch-hitting. His strikeouts are worrisome, but Bote's not exactly Tony Gwynn either.
Happ has the most defensive flexibility and gets on base at the higher rate.
Plus sometimes you need to swing for the fences and there's always a chance Happ can run into one.
I still think Happ's switch hitting and defensive flexibility will keep him on the roster. The biggest question might be that last reliever (Kintzler/De La Rosa/Rosario) vs. Gore.
May as well put Maples in versus Kintzler.... maples at least has an out pitch.
Probably, but we'll see who's throwing well over the last 10 days. I like the idea of Maples, but he needs to figure out how to throw strikes ASAP. Right now, I'd leave him off.
It's not happening with Maples, a guy with his stuff suddenly becoming a dominant back end reliever would be the perfect thing for the Cubs now, but if they aren't giving him high leverage spots in the regular season, they won't do it in the playoffs.
Well, you get Darvish back, Smyly is a possibility, and you got Chatwood’s contract to deal with.
I’m not a GM, so I can piss money away and move players around like checkers. I’d keep him, maybe even offer him another year to smooth the money out. His mental discipline has been excellent in this run. That’s why you keep a vet like him. And, he has had good velocity.
On top of this they have Montgomery, who would prefer to start, but is under team control until 2022. I think they'll bring Hamels back, but I'm not sure that it'll be an easy decision. It wouldn't surprise me if Theo worked a couple trades this off-season.
Don't ever use a form of rely and Chatwood in the same sentence.To add to this, Theo's acquisitions of Hamels and Murphy have paid major dividends as well down the stretch. Without Hamels, could the Cubs have relied on Chatwood down the stretch?
Montgomery has really increased his value. Yes, he is under team control, but now he's a starter, not a mid level lefty reliever. He's helped himself a lot.
Since kintzler became a cub 2 months ago he has a whip over 2 and era near 8. No way I'd have him in over bote.
otherwise I'd agree.
who do you pull for strop? i'd probably say rosario, depending how important a lefty is vs the team we draw.
