ADVERTISEMENT

*****Official Cubs 2018 thread*****

Brief thoughts:
I can see the Cubs simply cutting ties with Russell.
Either way the infield must be revamped.
I need someone to explain where the money will come from to add a big FA. The Cubs need to move salary to add salary.
This team needs a lead off batter. Someone who can hold down one position that has good speed.
I think the bullpen will be in good shape. Tinkering is needed, but I can see Maples, Smyly and Webster stepping in.
What is the rotation? Can the Cubs turn Chatwood into something useful, or get someone to pick up half of his remaining money?

I do think Ricketts will be willing to go over the luxury tax threshold, so that's where I think they'll get the space. That said, I could definitely see them packaging Heyward with a Schwarber/Happ in a deal where the Cubs maybe pay half his due money. Heyward can still play and someone will want him if the Cubs can make the money thing work.

Here's where the Cubs stand right now for 2019 (all numbers are base salary per spotrac.com). The Cubs have $144M currently locked in for guys already signed for 2019 plus Heyward's player option. There's another $46.75M in team options. $20M of that is Hamels, so there's some space if the Cubs opt to not take his option and the $10M for Kintzler likely won't be picked up. I assume they will pick up Q and Strop, so that's $16.75M. They're also likely going to see $36-40M in Arb deals and the rest of the roster will be under $800k.

Places to cut: $20M for Hamels if the Cubs don't pick it up (Rangers would even be paying the buyout). $10M for Kintzler, $3M if they move or drop Russell. I think Duensing will be moved, so that's another $3.5M. I don't think LaStella will be back and if Schwarber gets dealt, the pair would free about $4M. If ownership will go into luxury tax territory, then they likely have room for 1 big deal or a couple mid-tier deals.

Under Contract $124M
Lester, $22.5M
Darvish, $20M
Chatwood, $12.5M
Zobrist, $12M
Rizzo, $11M
Morrow, $9M
Smyly, $7M
Cishek, $6.5M
Duensing, $3.5M

Player Option $20M
Heyward, $20M (no way he opts out)

Team Option
Hamels, $20M (I'd guess 60/40 the Cubs pick it up)
Quintana, $10.5M (Cubs should and will pick it up. Hasn't been as good as hoped, but getting an equivalent pitcher would cost more than this)
Kintzler, $10M (Likely gone)
Strop, $6.25M (He's a bargain. Cubs will/should pick this up)

Arb1
Baez - Bryant got a record $10.85M in Arb 1 year. I'll guess Baez around $6-7M, well up from the $675k he made this year.
Montgomery - Certainly added value due to starting. I'll guess he goes from $611K to $4-5M.
Schwarber - Likely goes to $3-4M up from $604K

Arb2
Bryant - Will get a small bump. Maybe he goes to $13M
Hendricks - Goes up from $4.1M to probably $7-8M
LaStella - Likely wouldn't get much bump, making $950k now. Maybe $1.5M
Russell - Made $3.2M this year. Cubs likely deal him for scraps, but between his lousy offensive year and the suspension, he won't be in line for much more than he's getting now.
Webster - If he stays in the system, he'll still be around league minimum, no more than $600K

Pre-Arb All of these guys would make somewhere between the league minimum and maybe $650K.
Almora
Caratini
Contreras
T. Davis
Edwards
Gore
Happ
Maples
Mills
Rosario
Zagunis
 
All these make sense, but I still think YD is a huge ???

Sure, but what else are they going to do? I see Darvish the way dgordo does....that he was hurt all year, so I want him to get healthy and see what he has next year. He's come back from injury before and been very good.

One guy that could have good trade value is Montgomery. I really like him and have no problem if he's part of the rotation next year, but he's a guy that could definitely be packaged to dump a bad contract or land a leadoff hitter.
 
  • Like
Reactions: lucas80 and dgordo
To the comment about Theo spending out of control, Theo is given a budget and yes he spends every cent he’s allowed to spend. Theo doesn’t make the budget.
 
Last time I checked best overall record and as mentioned the only division with 4 teams with a winning record.
Al west had a better record I believe.
not really a fair comparison either way as they don't play the same schedules.
 
I do think Ricketts will be willing to go over the luxury tax threshold, so that's where I think they'll get the space. That said, I could definitely see them packaging Heyward with a Schwarber/Happ in a deal where the Cubs maybe pay half his due money. Heyward can still play and someone will want him if the Cubs can make the money thing work.
If we are going to pay half heywards salary and throw in happ or schwarber, then we might as well keep them all imo.
He put up an average offensive year and plays top notch D. He's not worth what he is making, but he's probably worth about half without including anyone. Maybe I'm just nuts? I guess it will partially depend on what teams are willing to pay FAs this year, at least the non elite ones.
 
To the comment about Theo spending out of control, Theo is given a budget and yes he spends every cent he’s allowed to spend. Theo doesn’t make the budget.

Several teams are expected to be over the luxury tax threshold, which looks to be $206M next year. Teams will likely want to stay under $237M, however, because going over that threshold will now drop a team's top draft pick 10 spots. As the Cubs sit right now, they're probably looking at hovering around $195M or so depending on how arbitration goes. I expect some moves in the off-season, so there could be a $10-15M reduction from there. They would seem to have $20-30M in room if Ricketts is willing to go to the levels that the Yanks, Dodgers and a couple others likely will.
 
If we are going to pay half heywards salary and throw in happ or schwarber, then we might as well keep them all imo.
He put up an average offensive year and plays top notch D. He's not worth what he is making, but he's probably worth about half without including anyone. Maybe I'm just nuts? I guess it will partially depend on what teams are willing to pay FAs this year, at least the non elite ones.

It also depends on the return. The Dodgers dumped 3 bad contracts in exchange for Matt Kemp in a deal with the Braves. As with many deals, the more cash the Cubs throw into a deal for a guy like Heyward, the better return they'll be able to demand.

It also depends on what Theo's plan is. If his plan is to go hard after Harper, then he's going to have to clear out the OF a little bit. They won't go into next season with Zobrist, Heyward, Almora, Happ, Schwarber AND Harper, they'd likely clear 2 of those. If they go after Machado, then it's not as critical to clear an OF, so they'd just have to figure out the money and the balance.
 
It also depends on the return. The Dodgers dumped 3 bad contracts in exchange for Matt Kemp in a deal with the Braves. As with many deals, the more cash the Cubs throw into a deal for a guy like Heyward, the better return they'll be able to demand.

It also depends on what Theo's plan is. If his plan is to go hard after Harper, then he's going to have to clear out the OF a little bit. They won't go into next season with Zobrist, Heyward, Almora, Happ, Schwarber AND Harper, they'd likely clear 2 of those. If they go after Machado, then it's not as critical to clear an OF, so they'd just have to figure out the money and the balance.

This is why I think they are more likely to go after machado, oh and the Russell situation.
 
This is why I think they are more likely to go after machado, oh and the Russell situation.
Russell is going to be back. It was very clear in the interview that the Cubs we're going to be there to get him and his ex the help he needs. Said that domestic violence is everybody's problem and that they will work to fix it so it never happens again.

ItsI actually refreshing, if you think about it. It would be so easy for the Cubs to cut this guy loose, but how does that help anybody? That doesn't fix the problem. It doesn't help Russell, or his ex, or maybe some future woman down the road. The Cubs signed Russell as a teen and have had him in their system for a while, and he's still young, they bear some responsibility here to fix the problem.
 
  • Like
Reactions: HawkAttackDial911
Russell is going to be back. It was very clear in the interview that the Cubs we're going to be there to get him and his ex the help he needs. Said that domestic violence is everybody's problem and that they will work to fix it so it never happens again.

ItsI actually refreshing, if you think about it. It would be so easy for the Cubs to cut this guy loose, but how does that help anybody? That doesn't fix the problem. It doesn't help Russell, or his ex, or maybe some future woman down the road. The Cubs signed Russell as a teen and have had him in their system for a while, and he's still young, they bear some responsibility here to fix the problem.
This is what a GM says when he's desperately trying to create some value. I have no doubt that a lot of GMs around MLB will give Russell the buffet line treatment. Pick him up with a pair of tongs and give him a sniff. I have no doubt that Russell will say everything right, and I have no doubt that Scott Boras has reached out to all of the potential land mines in his past (The baby mommas), and reminded them that his ability to provide money to them is dependent upon nothing else coming out.
I respect your Cubs fandom, but it isn't the Cubs responsibility to fix his problem. Abusing women is a core human being problem, not something that occurs on the job site. That is the calculus a lot of GMs will go over this Winter. If I were a GM of a team in rebuild mode I'd consider dealing for him, especially if my time frame for a return to success is 2 years. If the Cubs can't deal him, then they have a problem. We don't know what the Cubs know. Is there more out there that the MLB investigation dredged up?
Beyond that there is his actual baseball value. He has not improved as a player the last two years. He will be suspended for the first 30 games next year, and as I understand MLB rules with the union, the Cubs will have limited access to Russell while he serves the suspension. Meaning limited access to his work outs, limited access to his mental progress, and only a limited minor league rehab schedule. All of the opposing GMs know that Theo is in a very weak position. They can pass rather easily on Russell. He is a luxury option. If he works out, fine. But, do you want to be a GM that trades for a guy who might abuse a woman again? It isn't like rolling the dice on a guy coming off of a PED suspension.
 
Then the best course would be to keep him, rehabilitate him, see if his production gets better, then deal him.

Sign Machado. Russell can be a bench player until he's dealt.
 
Russell still has options, keep him, send him to Iowa after his suspension and let him earn his way back. Don't sell at the absolute low point
 
  • Like
Reactions: TC Nole OX
IF Harper and Machado are on the Cub's radar, then
Happ and Heywood become expendable as well as
Russell. Some AL team might want Schwarber for DH
and so there is some more trade bait. Cubs need
some offense they can count on. It might mean
Bryant gets shoulder surgery.
 
ADVERTISEMENT