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*****Official Cubs 2018 thread*****

That was a really good finish to the first half for the Cubs. It's interesting to look back at previous Maddon seasons. In 2015, the Cubs were really young and emerging and didn't really take off until August. 2016, they pretty much ran away from the start. Last year, the first half was a mess, before they came on late. In a lot of ways, this season has felt at times more like 2017 than 2016, but it's pretty interesting to line the teams up, because that's not reality:

Overall record & run differential through 93 games
2015: 50-43, +4 run diff
2016: 56-37, +146 run diff
2017: 48-45, +22 run diff
2018: 55-38, +114 run diff

First half offensive slash (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS)
2015: .239/.315/.374/.690
2016: .256/.348/.438/.786
2017: .239/.326/.419/.744
2018: .265/.345/.426/.771

First half pitching numbers
(ERA, K/BB, K/9, BAA/OBPA/SLGA/OPSA)

2015: 3.31, 3.41, 8.6, .234/.291/.372/.663
SP: 3.41, 4.32, 8.6, .238/.285/.382/.667
RP: 3.13, 2.42, 8.6, .226/.303/.351/.655

2016: 3.36, 2.85, 8.9, .216/.294/.356/.644
SP: 3.09, 3.18, 8.7, .216/.283/.353/.636
RP: 3.94, 2.37, 9.3, .216/.303/.355/.658

2017: 4.10, 2.47, 8.7, .242/.318/.405/.724
SP: 4.66, 2.44, 9.2, .259/.328/.440/.768
RP: 3.26, 2.51, 9.8, .214/.304/.350/.653

2018: 3.56, 1.96, 8.3, .230/.322/.368/.690
SP: 3.88, 1.84, 7.6, .238/.328/.392/.720
RP: 3.08, 2.11, 9.2, .218/.314/.333/.647

You can look at this and see some interesting things. This year's team is not as dominant as the 2016 team had been through 93 games, but it's not far off. The offense has been largely on par with 2016 (a little less power). The starters haven't been as good, but this year's bullpen has been much better. 2015's pitching was pretty much on par with this season, but the offense that year was far inferior. If the Cubs play the 2nd half the way Maddon's teams often play the second half, this team could make a run at 100 wins.
 
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It was nice to see Norwood come up over the weekend and get a test drive. He certainly has some good velocity.
It's also really nice to have the Bote safety blanket. Just out of mild curiosity, I checked the minor league game recaps on BCB and BN and did Bote even rejoin Des Moines when Bryant came up? Iowa and Nashville played on Saturday, and with the Cubs in San Diego I know if he was with the I-Cubs he must have been moving on Saturday to rejoin the big league club. I know the Cubs have done it several times with pitchers where there is a tough series, and they shuttle a guy to the big league club, file papers that he is going back to the minors, then he's right back due to another pitcher having "tightness and discomfort".

They said he did go back to Iowa and caught a 6:00 am flight to San Diego.
 
Honestly my advice to some Cubs fans... we've experienced years and years of crap... we have a team that has been to 3 straight NLCS and a World Series Champion. We're nit picking about a team with the best record in the NL and leading their division? Sit back and enjoy it, it's fun as hell.

100% agree with this comment. I became a Cubs fan in 1982 when we got cable TV and I could watch the end of games on WGN after school. From 1982 to 2014, the Cubs achieved 90 wins only four seasons (1984, 1989, 1998, 2008). Who knows what happens the rest of this year, but they are on pace to achieve 90 wins in each of the past four seasons. The last 3.5 seasons have been amazing, what a great time to be a Cubs fan!
 

Using FanGraph's $/WAR calculations, the 6-yr, $155M contract looks like a sound investment even if you completely ignore the legitimacy he brought and the, you know, WS ring. FanGraphs estimates Lester was worth $40M in 2015, $34.8M in 2016, $21.4M last year. Based on his WAR projections over the rest of 2018, he'd be worth $24-28M this season. That would bring his 4-year tally to $120-124M earned through 4 years. Even if he fell off to become a 1-2 WAR pitcher his last two years, that would be a combined value of roughly $25-30M, which would put him really close to the total overall value of the contract.

Getting Lester and having him pitch like prime Lester as much as he has probably goes right with Jake Arrieta as arguably the biggest moves of Theo's rebuild.
 
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Because it is that time of year there are lots of rumors flying around. The Zach Britton to the Cubs rumors are spinning around.
Meh.
However, I don't think the Cubs are well positioned to get a higher level player, especially one who isn't a rental.
 
Using FanGraph's $/WAR calculations, the 6-yr, $155M contract looks like a sound investment even if you completely ignore the legitimacy he brought and the, you know, WS ring. FanGraphs estimates Lester was worth $40M in 2015, $34.8M in 2016, $21.4M last year. Based on his WAR projections over the rest of 2018, he'd be worth $24-28M this season. That would bring his 4-year tally to $120-124M earned through 4 years. Even if he fell off to become a 1-2 WAR pitcher his last two years, that would be a combined value of roughly $25-30M, which would put him really close to the total overall value of the contract.

Getting Lester and having him pitch like prime Lester as much as he has probably goes right with Jake Arrieta as arguably the biggest moves of Theo's rebuild.
Plus, he is absolutely raking at the plate this year. ;)
 
Using FanGraph's $/WAR calculations, the 6-yr, $155M contract looks like a sound investment even if you completely ignore the legitimacy he brought and the, you know, WS ring. FanGraphs estimates Lester was worth $40M in 2015, $34.8M in 2016, $21.4M last year. Based on his WAR projections over the rest of 2018, he'd be worth $24-28M this season. That would bring his 4-year tally to $120-124M earned through 4 years. Even if he fell off to become a 1-2 WAR pitcher his last two years, that would be a combined value of roughly $25-30M, which would put him really close to the total overall value of the contract.

Getting Lester and having him pitch like prime Lester as much as he has probably goes right with Jake Arrieta as arguably the biggest moves of Theo's rebuild.
how was he worth more in 15 vs 16? that doesn't make any sense to me.
i'd say the deal with hendricks was as important as any deal.
 
how was he worth more in 15 vs 16? that doesn't make any sense to me.
i'd say the deal with hendricks was as important as any deal.

It's based on FanGraphs stats, which had his WAR higher in 2015. If you look at K rate, BB rate, FIP, xFIP, ground ball %, HR rate, his numbers were actually better in 2015 than in 2016. They're probably underrating his 2016 season, so that value number should probably be even higher.
 
It's based on FanGraphs stats, which had his WAR higher in 2015. If you look at K rate, BB rate, FIP, xFIP, ground ball %, HR rate, his numbers were actually better in 2015 than in 2016. They're probably underrating his 2016 season, so that value number should probably be even higher.
Does everyone just figure WAR at whatever they want? Espn has his '16 war much higher than 15.

I don't care much for Ks and FIP as they can be overrated imo...especially with a D like the cubs have. What is the point of having all those plus defenders if you don't need them? Ground ball % can be overrated too imo, especially if it doesn't account for velocity.
His homeruns have been climbing.....but that has been pretty much standard in baseball.
 
Does everyone just figure WAR at whatever they want? Espn has his '16 war much higher than 15.

I don't care much for Ks and FIP as they can be overrated imo...especially with a D like the cubs have. What is the point of having all those plus defenders if you don't need them? Ground ball % can be overrated too imo, especially if it doesn't account for velocity.
His homeruns have been climbing.....but that has been pretty much standard in baseball.

There are definitely different ways to calculate WAR. Baseball Reference also has his 2016 WAR higher than 2015. FIP can be overrated, but we heard all through the 2016 season how the Cubs were having historically good defense, especially on the infield. Lester is primarily a ground ball pitcher, so there's no doubt he benefitted greatly from that in 2016. I think when it comes down to it, FanGraphs numbers likely overstate the impact of the Cubs D. That said, the goal of some of these stats is to try to isolate the pitcher's actual performance, which is not easy to do.

The main point of my post, though, was to try to show the value Lester has brought to the Cubs. It's amazing how well this FA contract has panned out for the Cubs.
 
There are definitely different ways to calculate WAR. Baseball Reference also has his 2016 WAR higher than 2015. FIP can be overrated, but we heard all through the 2016 season how the Cubs were having historically good defense, especially on the infield. Lester is primarily a ground ball pitcher, so there's no doubt he benefitted greatly from that in 2016. I think when it comes down to it, FanGraphs numbers likely overstate the impact of the Cubs D. That said, the goal of some of these stats is to try to isolate the pitcher's actual performance, which is not easy to do.

The main point of my post, though, was to try to show the value Lester has brought to the Cubs. It's amazing how well this FA contract has panned out for the Cubs.

It’s the best free agent signing in the history of Chicago sports.
 
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It’s the best free agent signing in the history of Chicago sports.

No argument here. :)

Milton+Bradley.jpg
 
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Article from ESPN, what it would take for the cubs to get Jason Degrom. They are saying two of three Happ, Russell, and Montgomery, along with a top prospect. He’s under control through the end of 2020.

That would be an infield of Rizzo, Zobrist, Baez, and Bryant. Outfield of Schwarber, Heyward, and Alomar. Besides having, probably either Russell or Happ. Do you do that deal? I think maybe I would.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24132748/what-take-cubs-pull-degrom-blockbuster
 
Article from ESPN, what it would take for the cubs to get Jason Degrom. They are saying two of three Happ, Russell, and Montgomery, along with a top prospect. He’s under control through the end of 2020.

That would be an infield of Rizzo, Zobrist, Baez, and Bryant. Outfield of Schwarber, Heyward, and Alomar. Besides having, probably either Russell or Happ. Do you do that deal? I think maybe I would.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24132748/what-take-cubs-pull-degrom-blockbuster

i would do montgomery, russell and a prospect. i think happ has a better future than russell, mainly because of russell's personal life.
 
Good start to the second half, really could use a couple long outings from the starters over the next week or so.
 
Article from ESPN, what it would take for the cubs to get Jason Degrom. They are saying two of three Happ, Russell, and Montgomery, along with a top prospect. He’s under control through the end of 2020.

That would be an infield of Rizzo, Zobrist, Baez, and Bryant. Outfield of Schwarber, Heyward, and Alomar. Besides having, probably either Russell or Happ. Do you do that deal? I think maybe I would.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24132748/what-take-cubs-pull-degrom-blockbuster
Wouldn’t Baez move to SS, Alomar to 2nd, and Almora to CF ;)
 
Article from ESPN, what it would take for the cubs to get Jason Degrom. They are saying two of three Happ, Russell, and Montgomery, along with a top prospect. He’s under control through the end of 2020.

That would be an infield of Rizzo, Zobrist, Baez, and Bryant. Outfield of Schwarber, Heyward, and Alomar. Besides having, probably either Russell or Happ. Do you do that deal? I think maybe I would.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24132748/what-take-cubs-pull-degrom-blockbuster

I wouldn't even consider it for Jason DeGrom....but for Jacob, I'd have to consider it. Still, that's a chunk to give up. He might be worth it.....but pitchers are always a roll of the dice.

As for what's left, the Cubs have some depth to deal, but it's always a dicey proposition to subtract a ML starter or major bench piece from a team in contention. I'd probably consider the deal if Montgomery was one of the two, but I don't think I can do a Happ/Russell deal. That's two significant pieces.

Which Alomar would we have in the OF? I don't want to see Sandy out there in CF ;)
 
We are driving to Indiana and stopped in Galesburg for dinner, The Iron Spike if you are curious, and got to see the big inning for the Cubs. Pretty fun because there were a bunch of Cardinals fans there and they were groaning.
I guess firing Matheny didn’t make their defense better.
 
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I know this is my own dead horse to beat, but why bring in Strop with two outs in the 9th?
 
We are driving to Indiana and stopped in Galesburg for dinner, The Iron Spike if you are curious, and got to see the big inning for the Cubs. Pretty fun because there were a bunch of Cardinals fans there and they were groaning.
I guess firing Matheny didn’t make their defense better.

The cardinals have one of the worst defensive teams I have seen in a while.
 
The cardinals have one of the worst defensive teams I have seen in a while.
We listened to the Cardinals radio feed for awhile and they were pointed in their criticisms of the defense, and mentioned more than once their statistically putrid defense.
 
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