Only 140 days until pitchers and catchers report.
This our year to win it all!!
This our year to win it all!!
*****Official Cubs 2019 thread*****
- Thread starter QChawks
- Start date
You need to pull your post from the 2018 thread giving the roster and salary breakdown and bring it over here. Very informative.
I do think Ricketts will be willing to go over the luxury tax threshold, so that's where I think they'll get the space. That said, I could definitely see them packaging Heyward with a Schwarber/Happ in a deal where the Cubs maybe pay half his due money. Heyward can still play and someone will want him if the Cubs can make the money thing work.
Here's where the Cubs stand right now for 2019 (all numbers are base salary per spotrac.com). The Cubs have $144M currently locked in for guys already signed for 2019 plus Heyward's player option. There's another $46.75M in team options. $20M of that is Hamels, so there's some space if the Cubs opt to not take his option and the $10M for Kintzler likely won't be picked up (EDIT: Since posting, I've learned there's also a $5M player option for Kintzler, which I'm assuming he'll take). I assume they will pick up Q and Strop, so that's $16.75M. They're also likely going to see $36-40M in Arb deals and the rest of the roster will be under $800k.
Places to cut: $20M for Hamels if the Cubs don't pick it up (Rangers would even be paying the buyout). $10M for Kintzler, $3M if they move or drop Russell. I think Duensing will be moved, so that's another $3.5M. I don't think LaStella will be back and if Schwarber gets dealt, the pair would free about $4M. If ownership will go into luxury tax territory, then they likely have room for 1 big deal or a couple mid-tier deals.
Under Contract $124M
Lester, $22.5M
Darvish, $20M
Chatwood, $12.5M
Zobrist, $12M
Rizzo, $11M
Morrow, $9M
Smyly, $7M
Cishek, $6.5M
Duensing, $3.5M
Player Option $20M
Heyward, $20M (no way he opts out)
Team Option
Hamels, $20M (I'd guess 60/40 the Cubs pick it up)
Quintana, $10.5M (Cubs should and will pick it up. Hasn't been as good as hoped, but getting an equivalent pitcher would cost more than this)
Kintzler, $10M (Likely gone) EDIT: Again, he apparently has a $5M player option, so likely not gone.
Strop, $6.25M (He's a bargain. Cubs will/should pick this up)
Arb1
Baez - Bryant got a record $10.85M in Arb 1 year. I'll guess Baez around $6-7M, well up from the $675k he made this year.
Montgomery - Certainly added value due to starting. I'll guess he goes from $611K to $4-5M.
Schwarber - Likely goes to $3-4M up from $604K
Arb2
Bryant - Will get a small bump. Maybe he goes to $13M
Hendricks - Goes up from $4.1M to probably $7-8M
LaStella - Likely wouldn't get much bump, making $950k now. Maybe $1.5M
Russell - Made $3.2M this year. Cubs likely deal him for scraps, but between his lousy offensive year and the suspension, he won't be in line for much more than he's getting now.
Webster - If he stays in the system, he'll still be around league minimum, no more than $600K
Pre-Arb All of these guys would make somewhere between the league minimum and maybe $650K.
Almora
Caratini
Contreras
T. Davis
Edwards
Gore
Happ
Maples
Mills
Rosario
Zagunis
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I'd add TLS to Gonzo's list of players unlikely to return. He's a great pinch hitter, there is no doubt about that. But, he is a bad fielder. I'd prefer to find a cheaper option in the farm system, or on the FA market. Someone who can be part of a double switch.
I noted earlier that I think he's unlikely to stay. He's getting a bit pricey for what he gives. Bote isn't yet the bench bat that TLS is, but he was good off the bench this year and is much better defensively. Plus, Zobrist is getting older and if the Cubs retain Murphy or bring in a big FA or a couple upper/mid FAs, he's likely to get more bench time and then he's a better bench bat than TLS will ever be.
Use a different browser. I go from Chrome to Firefox to Opera each month as I "use up" my free articles on various websites.
Cubs roster outlook for 2019: Who's likely to return and who's likely to depart
Mark Gonzales
Now that the season is done, the Cubs will have a busy offseason refining and reworking their roster. Here are the current players, listed with their contract status and their possible futures with the Cubs.
Who’s likely to return: Pitchers
Tyler Chatwood
Signed through 2020. Couldn’t hurt to seek outside help to solve what has befuddled him.
Steve Cishek
Signed through 2019. Best free-agent signing.
Yu Darvish
Signed through 2023. Right arm will dictate if he can fulfill contract with the Cubs.
Carl Edwards Jr.
Likely arbitration eligible. Forearm injury added to second-half struggles, but he needs to regain control.
Cole Hamels
$20 million team option. Pitched well enough to earn option.
Kyle Hendricks
Arbitration eligible. Mr. Dependable.
Brandon Kintzler
$10 million team option; if declined $5 million player option. Cubs paid a steep price for his relief help.
Jon Lester
Signed through 2020. Always looks to get better.
Photos of Cubs starting pitcher Jon Lester.
Mike Montgomery
Arbitration eligible. Faces similar swing role in 2019.
Brandon Morrow
Signed through 2019. Lots of TLC with right arm, but likely back in closer role.
Jose Quintana
$10.5 million team option. He’d likely be gone if not for the continuing uncertainly of Darvish and Chatwood.
Randy Rosario
Under team control. Contributed in spurts.
Drew Smyly
Signed through 2019. Determined to start after missing 2018.
Pedro Strop
$6.25 million team option. Great mentor, insurance for Morrow.
Who’s likely to return: Position players
Albert Almora Jr.
Under team control. Hit right-handers almost as well as lefties.
Javier Baez
Arbitration eligible. Deserves extension talks.
Photos of Cubs infielder Javier Baez.
David Bote
Under team control. No worse than a super utility role in 2019.
Kris Bryant
Arbitration eligible. No more headfirst slides, but don’t expect a big contract.
Willson Contreras
Under team control. Time to hit the reset button offensively — and to improve his pitch framing.
Victor Caratini
Under team control. Enhanced versatility could lead to more playing time.
Jason Heyward
Signed through 2023. Could get better in 2019.
Tommy La Stella
Arbitration eligible. Knows his role well.
Anthony Rizzo
Signed through 2019. Another sound season.
Photos of Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo.
Ben Zobrist
Signed through 2019. Deserves NL comeback player of year award.
Who’s likely to depart: Pitchers
Jesse Chavez
Free agent. Could earn multiyear deal elsewhere.
Jorge De La Rosa
Free agent. Filled a glaring need.
Brian Duensing
Signed through 2019. Ineffectiveness and injuries mean no guarantees.
Justin Wilson
Free agent. Pitched well enough to get a robust deal elsewhere.
Who’s likely to depart: Position players
Ian Happ
Under team control. Trade fodder for pitching depth.
Addison Russell
Arbitration eligible. After domestic violence accusation and suspension, he’s unlikely to return.
Kyle Schwarber
Arbitration eligible. Power makes him attractive to AL teams.
mgonzales@chicagotribune.com
Twitter @MDGonzales
Probably a $1-1.2M. He won't get a massive raise, but Bote will likely just cost the league minimum as a part-timer who is pre-arb, so I don't know that the $500-600K difference between he and TLS is worth it if that money can be put to better use. TLS will land a gig somewhere if he wants one, I just think the Cubs are going to have to make some difficult decisions if they're going to make any significant additions this offseason.
Crap, in my analysis above, I didn't catch that Kintzler had a double option. I fully expect the Cubs to decline the $10M option, but I didn't look closely enough to see that he has a $5M player option. He might stay....but at least it likely won't be for $10M.
The Cubs are going to have to fill a couple relief spots. Wilson probably walks and the Cubs will obviously hope that guys like Rosario, Mills and Maples can take the next step, but I would not at all be opposed to the Cubs signing Jesse Chavez. I like that guy a lot.
The Cubs are going to have to fill a couple relief spots. Wilson probably walks and the Cubs will obviously hope that guys like Rosario, Mills and Maples can take the next step, but I would not at all be opposed to the Cubs signing Jesse Chavez. I like that guy a lot.
One of the problems with taking Kintzler and Chavez is that it's more bullpen guys without options. We saw this year how valuable it can be to have several bullpen spots that can be shuttled back and forth to Iowa. You can still game the 10 day DL rule to rotate arms in but having multiple relievers with options is advantageous from a roster management standpoint.
I heard a story that after the WC game Chavez was pretty emotional in the locker room and saying that he is either wearing this uniform (referring to his Cubs uni) next year or he's retiring. I love that dude and hope they can sign him.
I don't see Chatwood coming back. Maybe they keep him and try to fix him, but more likely he gets packaged as part of a deal.
Not worried about the BP because we have a decent backbone to build from and there is a lot of good relievers available in FA. Lots of options there.
The Cubs problem down the stretch
was definitely starting pitching. Scoring
runs is overrated in today's game.
was definitely starting pitching. Scoring
runs is overrated in today's game.
The Cubs will have several spots with options, I'm not worried about that. I don't really want to see Kintzler back, but we likely will. I want to see Chavez back. I really like his versatility in the pen. I wouldn't let him go just so we can churn AAAA guys.
I'd be perfectly fine with Chavez and not Kintzler back although I'm not expecting a repeat of Chavez's performance this year next season.
Depends on the cost. If what was posted earlier about Chavez looking at coming back or retiring, the Cubs will probably get him at a reasonable price. If he hits the market and someone else goes crazy, then maybe not. The Cubs could still pay Kintzler his $5M and send him packing or put him into a trade.
I heard the Chavez story. I love the guy but let's be honest, what he said about wanting to come back was in the heat of the moment. If someone dangles a fat contract in front of him I wouldn't blame him for leaving. I love that he wants to be here though.
Common theme that came out of Hamels mouth as well is that the Cubs are a great organization to play for.
I agree. Still, he's worth pursuing up to a point. If there's a way to keep him without blocking other moves, I'm in. Same for Hamels. We won't get a full year of the guy we saw the first 8 starts right after the deadline, but he can still pitch and he seems to be one of those vets who gets energized playing on a good team.
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Honestly, at this point, I think the Cubs have enough plan Bs that he's not worth dealing. His movement is still incredible, so I think he's still a guy the Cubs can work with. If he ever figures it out, he'll be electric. The Cubs just don't want to go into next year relying on him for 30 starts. They'll have some other potential options in the rotation. Unless he's packaged as a way to cut payroll to make a move for someone else, I just don't see the benefit to letting him go....just don't make him a core piece of what you're trying to accomplish next year.
Unless they can get him into a trade, there won't be much choice. He doesn't have options and if they just cut him, they're still going to have to pay him and count his contract towards luxury tax limit. The best course here, really, is to give him offseason assignments, maybe work with him in the AFL or winter league and see if he can clean some stuff up by the end of spring training. If not, then he probably starts the year as a low-leverage bullpen guy.
Even for the Cubs it's a ton of money. I can see them giving him every opportunity to be a back of the bullpen guy. It is nuts, but if he strips himself down to 2 pitches I think he'd improve his odds of being useful. The arm is there. Beyond that, you have to struggle along with him until someone agrees to take part of his salary off of your hands.
Well yeah, I was thinking as part of a package deal in order to free up some money. I don't see the point in paying him to play somewhere else when the guy still has good stuff, just can't control it.
I don't see where he is going to start anywhere, assuming they bring back Hamels, we'll have a rotation of: Lester, Hendricks, Darvish, Hamels, Quintana. Chatwood could come out of the pen for long relief, or spot start in case of injuries, but I don't see where we rely on him for 10 starts much less 30. Keep Montgomery around as that security blanket and Chatwood won't even have that role. Maybe he regains his stuff and earns a bigger role.
I admit to a minor case of TLSDS, but he's going to be over $1million next season. I just think he provides too little pop, and he only plays one position passably. He can't play 3rd, and he can't even go to the OF in an extra inning game. For the 25th man he needs to offer more flexibility, or the promise of some pop off the bench.
If the Cubs can save $500,000 on him maybe that is the extra $500,000 they need for a middle of the bullpen guy, or $500,000 they can hold in reserve for midseason moves.
I love that this thread is getting so much action. Somewhere there is a Cardinals fan with a case of the sads counting WS rings from 70+ years ago.
