*****Official Cubs 2020 thread*****

hawkifann

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Hendricks and Quintana should be more of the same. Hopefully we get a Darvish that's much more like the 2nd half Yu than the first half. After that, Mills, Chatwood, Alzolay, Rea, Graveman and others should compete. If a Rizzo, KB or Contreras are traded, I'd expect a young arm back as part of the package. If the Cubs do deal for a good, young pitcher, maybe that opens the door to trading Q after the Cubs exercise is $10.5M option.
 

H4wkfan4life

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Hendricks and Quintana should be more of the same. Hopefully we get a Darvish that's much more like the 2nd half Yu than the first half. After that, Mills, Chatwood, Alzolay, Rea, Graveman and others should compete. If a Rizzo, KB or Contreras are traded, I'd expect a young arm back as part of the package. If the Cubs do deal for a good, young pitcher, maybe that opens the door to trading Q after the Cubs exercise is $10.5M option.
Might as well tear it all down if they go and trade KB or Rizz....
 
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H4wkfan4life

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Why? That would likely give them the space to sign Castellanos plus another player or two plus the haul they'd get back in a trade.
Rizzo is set to make around 15M IIRC, KB probably less than 20M.
I don't see how that is gonna get us Castellanos and another player worth mentioning(certainly not 2 more).
How can we trade either and expect to make the team better next year, especially considering both are underpaid.
Prospects are nice but I don't see them helping us the next 2 years. If we find the right trading partner, it's possible but probably not that likely. If we are looking for future kids and saying screw the now then sell off.....
 

hawkifann

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Rizzo is set to make around 15M IIRC, KB probably less than 20M.
I don't see how that is gonna get us Castellanos and another player worth mentioning(certainly not 2 more).
How can we trade either and expect to make the team better next year, especially considering both are underpaid.
Prospects are nice but I don't see them helping us the next 2 years. If we find the right trading partner, it's possible but probably not that likely. If we are looking for future kids and saying screw the now then sell off.....
Cubs have roughly $70M to spend right now, plus, the two years of discount for Rizzo and KB add to the value. They'll get young ML talent in return (or you don't deal).
 

hawkifann

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The problem with trading Bryant is that it’s almost impossible to get equal value.
I do agree with this, so you have to be picky....but you also have to factor in the possibility that he doesn't sign a long-term deal here as well. But you don't just dump him for prospects...it has to be a killer deal.
 

lucas80

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The problem with trading Bryant is that it’s almost impossible to get equal value.
So many of Theo's deals wound up with the Cubs getting less value in return, but they were sold as getting a critical piece to be competitive and win now, or dealing from the strength of such a strong farm system. Personally I think a lot of hubris was involved. Theo just got less than the other team got in return too many times.
 

LuteHawk

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It would be a big surprise if Rizzo is traded. He is not
going anywhere. Bryant is another story, his offense
has gone down hill the past two years. He is probably
trade bait, that no team will bite on.
 

Hime_Peterson

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https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...ubs-dont-which-team-is-going-to-the-playoffs/

Here is an article from 538 on the Cubs futility with drafting/developing pitchers.

Some of us started sounding the alarm bell during the summer of 2018 that the inability to develop pitching would close the contention window earlier, and prevent a sustained run of success like we are currently seeing from LA and Houston.

We were told by some of you that this isn't a huge deal, that you can always find pitching, and that the contracts given to Darvish/Chatwood were "no big deal because it was just money, not prospects."

The concerns were proven right this year. I think some of you were so in awe of Theo Epstein as the curse-busting genius that you thought he would be able to prevent this.

I'm sure the sycophants in this thread will convince themselves that Theo is a genius because Brailyn Marquez seems to be an improvement. Get back to me when he hits a top 50 ranking on an impartial prospect list.

Some of the Epstein worshippers in here got all excited about Adbert Alzolay. He will be 25 years old next March and has never thrown over 121 innings in a single season. #5 potential at best, but that's actually really good for this group.
 
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hawkifann

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So many of Theo's deals wound up with the Cubs getting less value in return, but they were sold as getting a critical piece to be competitive and win now, or dealing from the strength of such a strong farm system. Personally I think a lot of hubris was involved. Theo just got less than the other team got in return too many times.
He's been all over the board on trades. He basically stole Arrieta and Strop and on the other extreme, he gave up far, far too much for Quintana. He's had wins and losses in the middle.
 
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MitchLL

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It would be a big surprise if Rizzo is traded. He is not
going anywhere. Bryant is another story, his offense
has gone down hill the past two years. He is probably
trade bait, that no team will bite on.
If Cubs fans think another team will trade for Bryant and deal a 1/2 starter for him... they're delirious. Not a chance in hell KB brings that.

Fans on this forum are seriously over valuing their trade bait. There's just too much risk dealing high profile players in trades. What stars have been traded recently that worked well for both sides? Just too big of a gamble.

To me... the biggest way to improve is get lucky on a smaller name FA player or simply get lucky on a lower level trade(LaMahieu/Urshela).

Gerrit Cole must be salivating right now. The bidding for him will be insane. Might even include Strasburg/MadBum. Some teams will seriously overpay because of the lack of top of the line starters.

Cubs rebuild will be slow and painful, I'm afraid.
 
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hawkifann

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Cubs rebuild will be slow and painful, I'm afraid.
Do you honestly believe the Cubs have the talent level of the 2012-2013 Cubs? It certainly sounds like you do.

KB's market will be what it will be. There's no reason not to listen to offers. Other teams would like to have him as he's a very good, bordering on elite offensive player when he's healthy. What will teams be willing to give up? Who knows.

One thing is for sure - the economics of the game have changed substantially in the last 5 years. Guys who would have gotten big offers in the past haven't recently. Trades have been inconsistent. The end result is that some teams will overpay for guys and yet there will be bargains out there for the taking.
 

MitchLL

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Do you honestly believe the Cubs have the talent level of the 2012-2013 Cubs? It certainly sounds like you do.

KB's market will be what it will be. There's no reason not to listen to offers. Other teams would like to have him as he's a very good, bordering on elite offensive player when he's healthy. What will teams be willing to give up? Who knows.

One thing is for sure - the economics of the game have changed substantially in the last 5 years. Guys who would have gotten big offers in the past haven't recently. Trades have been inconsistent. The end result is that some teams will overpay for guys and yet there will be bargains out there for the taking.
I'm talking the expectations of dealing Bryant. Bryant only. He's not going to get the return some think he should. Bryant AND Bote/Caratini might get you a #1.
 

LuteHawk

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The two biggest free agents last Winter were Harper
and Machado. Harper and the Phillies are not going
to the World Series and neither are the Padres and
Machado.

Harper and Machado made out like bandits with their
free agent contract. Both players are over-rated and
over-paid.
 

SCHawkFan

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Myrtle Beach, SC
This thread had grown fast. Sorry if I repeat other posts, but did not read them all.

I agree that Ross has the best chance to be the next manager. The Cubs are not looking to pay a tier one manager salary, so someone like Ross is a good financial fit. He appears to have the respect of the players, so that is a plus.

Castellanos would be a great one to keep, but not sure the Cubs will be willing to pay enough. The guy is entering his prime and looks built for Wrigley.

I assume Schwarber was playing this weekend because the Cubs want to move him this winter. Padding the stats may help.

Happ seems on the way out. Maybe Almora too, but I would like him to stay. Batting him eighth and letting him do what he does in center field seems like a good idea to me.

Hayward is probably back. Who would take his contract?

Rizzo and Baez look to be Cubs for life. Bryant, not so sure.

There are plenty of moves to be made to be a championship contending team again, but the core of a playoff team is there. This is still a team that was in first place for three months this summer. Injuries and a few holes on the roster did them in in September.
 

LuteHawk

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The first order of business for the Cubs:

Hire a new manager...............buzz on the street is that
Rizzo really likes David Ross.
 

BioHawk

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David Ross is a done deal I think. However, it will be tough to contend next year. They need too much pitching. If Happ and Almora are gone, they may need to keep Schwarber just so they have enough outfielders. I figured he might be one of their most lucrative trade pieces given his contract and his production. Who knows, though. Hell, I don't even know if I'm going to be able to watch them next year on their new network.
 

33hawkfan

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This thread had grown fast. Sorry if I repeat other posts, but did not read them all.

I agree that Ross has the best chance to be the next manager. The Cubs are not looking to pay a tier one manager salary, so someone like Ross is a good financial fit. He appears to have the respect of the players, so that is a plus.

Castellanos would be a great one to keep, but not sure the Cubs will be willing to pay enough. The guy is entering his prime and looks built for Wrigley.

I assume Schwarber was playing this weekend because the Cubs want to move him this winter. Padding the stats may help.

Happ seems on the way out. Maybe Almora too, but I would like him to stay. Batting him eighth and letting him do what he does in center field seems like a good idea to me.

Hayward is probably back. Who would take his contract?

Rizzo and Baez look to be Cubs for life. Bryant, not so sure.

There are plenty of moves to be made to be a championship contending team again, but the core of a playoff team is there. This is still a team that was in first place for three months this summer. Injuries and a few holes on the roster did them in in September.
If Almora is still with the Cubs, I hope he’s starting in Des Moines. He’s terrible, and not even a good defensive CF.
 

hawkifann

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If Happ and Almora are gone, they may need to keep Schwarber just so they have enough outfielders..
Do you think they'll just non-tender these guys? They can't be FAs, so if they're not back, it's either because they're non-tendered or traded. If they're traded, I assume they'll be dealt as part of some plan.

I'd bring Almora back as a AAAA option guy before I non-tender him and non-tendering Happ would be flat ridiculous.
 
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BioHawk

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Do you think they'll just non-tender these guys? They can't be FAs, so if they're not back, it's either because they're non-tendered or traded. If they're traded, I assume they'll be dealt as part of some plan.

I'd bring Almora back as a AAAA option guy before I non-tender him and non-tendering Happ would be flat ridiculous.
No, I have no idea what they will do. I was just responding to someone else's idea of letting them go or trading them.
 

hawkifann

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No, I have no idea what they will do. I was just responding to someone else's idea of letting them go or trading them.
I was just making the point that just letting them go is short sighted. They don't cost much and they're organizational depth, if nothing else.
 

BioHawk

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I was just making the point that just letting them go is short sighted. They don't cost much and they're organizational depth, if nothing else.
I don't disagree with you, but if the right deal came along I could see them being shipped off. At this point, I would think Almora would have more value than Happ though.
 

Im4Iowa

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It would be a big surprise if Rizzo is traded. He is not
going anywhere. Bryant is another story, his offense
has gone down hill the past two years. He is probably
trade bait, that no team will bite on.
If Cubs fans think another team will trade for Bryant and deal a 1/2 starter for him... they're delirious. Not a chance in hell KB brings that.

Fans on this forum are seriously over valuing their trade bait. There's just too much risk dealing high profile players in trades. What stars have been traded recently that worked well for both sides? Just too big of a gamble.

To me... the biggest way to improve is get lucky on a smaller name FA player or simply get lucky on a lower level trade(LaMahieu/Urshela).

Gerrit Cole must be salivating right now. The bidding for him will be insane. Might even include Strasburg/MadBum. Some teams will seriously overpay because of the lack of top of the line starters.

Cubs rebuild will be slow and painful, I'm afraid.
But are the Cubs really in a rebuild mode right now? I don’t think they are. They were 2 games back of the Cardinals just a few weeks ago and then had a stretch of bad baseball combined with a half dozen 1 run loses. And this happened without Baez and a gimpy Bryant and Rizzo.

There’s no question they have to get better to win another WS with this group, but I dont see a complete rebuild. Their pitching staff couldn’t stay healthy and they really missed Zobrist. Theo said last year that their finish was unacceptable and things would be done to make sure it doesn’t happen again...then did nothing in the offseason. He has to be more active this winter and if so, the Cubs will be contenders again as the heart of this team is still young and relatively inexpensive.
 
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33hawkfan

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But are the Cubs really in a rebuild mode right now? I don’t think they are. They were 2 games back of the Cardinals just a few weeks ago and then had a stretch of bad baseball combined with a half dozen 1 run loses. And this happened without Baez and a gimpy Bryant and Rizzo.

There’s no question they have to get better to win another WS with this group, but I dont see a complete rebuild. Their pitching staff couldn’t stay healthy and they really missed Zobrist. Theo said last year that their finish was unacceptable and things would be done to make sure it doesn’t happen again...then did nothing in the offseason. He has to be more active this winter and if so, the Cubs will be contenders again as the heart of this team is still young and relatively inexpensive.
The problem is with the Cubs lack of minor league talent coming up, if they don't do a sort of soft rebuild now, there's a real chance the bottom falls out in a few years. They really haven't felt the pain of their lack of minor league development yet because they still have so many position players on cheap deals, but it's coming.

But with Theo only having two more years left, maybe he's fine with that. Go all in for the next two years and let the next guy deal with things after that.
 
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hawkifann

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I don't disagree with you, but if the right deal came along I could see them being shipped off. At this point, I would think Almora would have more value than Happ though.
Absolutely, though I think Happ would have more value than Almora...but we'll see. Trading them is fine.
 

33hawkfan

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I'm not arguing that point at all. I still think there's hope for Happ.
I do too, I'm not nearly as optimistic on Almora though and I do think the front office has shown some bias toward their own high draft picks. If Almora had been a random guy acquired at the tail end of Hendry's tenure, I think he would have had a different route through the Cubs system.
 

hawkifann

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I do too, I'm not nearly as optimistic on Almora though and I do think the front office has shown some bias toward their own high draft picks. If Almora had been a random guy acquired at the tail end of Hendry's tenure, I think he would have had a different route through the Cubs system.
I don't disagree. Almora did show some decent flashes in 2016-2017, but he's been pretty bad for a while and his defense has been going downhill (though he had a hell of a catch in the Cards series). If the Cubs had a spark plug at the top to get the engine running, it would be a lot easier to float Almora in the 8 spot....but they don't currently have that luxury.

If he was even hitting the ball hard against lefties and playing solid to good defense as he did in that 2016-2017 stretch, he's cheap enough to be pretty useful....but now he's just not that useful. I'd still put him in AAA as opposed to non-tendering him, but if someone has an interest in him or if he can be a bit of a sweetener as part of a bigger deal, awesome, go get some value in return.
 

SoDakHawk

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Am I the only one who thinks hiring David Ross to manage the Cubs is a bad idea? He has zero managerial experience and his only qualifications are that he was a clubhouse favorite. I'm not sure hiring a guy because he is buddies with the players is a good strategy, in fact, it's a terrible idea.

There are a lot of good baseball guys out there that would be good candidates to be the next manager of the Cubs. Do a comprehensive search and go hire one of those guys.
 

33hawkfan

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Am I the only one who thinks hiring David Ross to manage the Cubs is a bad idea? He has zero managerial experience and his only qualifications are that he was a clubhouse favorite. I'm not sure hiring a guy because he is buddies with the players is a good strategy, in fact, it's a terrible idea.

There are a lot of good baseball guys out there that would be good candidates to be the next manager of the Cubs. Do a comprehensive search and go hire one of those guys.
If they don't hire him, I bet they hire Mark Loretta. They are going to hire someone cheap who will just run out whatever lineup the front office tells him to each day.
 
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MuscoHawk

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If the Cubs want to make another run with this core of players, they need to look at what this team is missing from the World Series squad:

1. Leadership — Arrieta, Ross, Fowler and Lackey were major leaders in the clubhouse. I think this is a big reason why they’re going to bring Ross in as manager.

2. Leadoff hitter — The “you go we go” thing was cute, but I didn’t buy into the need for a legit leadoff hitter. After a couple years of musical chairs at the top of the lineup—I DO NOW.

3. Ace — Arrieta was a beast—they don’t have a legit ace right now. Need someone like Gerrit Cole.
 
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