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*****Official Cubs 2021 thread*****

MeetTheFerentz said:
Unfortunately, this team isn't going to be better next year. They will get worse for the next 2-3 years and then maybe the rebuild will begin. The Cubs have officially mirrored the Tigers since their last W.S. - huge contracts on underperforming players, horrible trades and bare cupboard of a farm system.
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I don't believe that to be the case at all with regards to big contracts hindering them
C: Next to nothing. Contreras is in Arb 2 I believe and he'll see a bump, but nothing out of the ordinary. He'll probably move the cubs into the top 10 payroll wise at the position, but he is easily one of the top 5 catchers in the league.

1B: Rizzo at $16.5M is still a steal.

2B: No money spent

3B: Bryant will probably see a little bump, but not much

SS: Baez will probably see a little bump, but not much

OF: Schwarber will probably see a little bump, but not much. Happ will see the biggest increase as he enters Arb 1, but he was probably their best player last season. You still have Heywards monster contract, which isnt all that monster anymore.

P: You got Darvish and Hendricks who both played well and earned their salary. Lester has a $25M option or $10M buyout. I am guessing he resigns for between $15 and $20 (since they already have $10 sunk).

Cubs are sitting at $89M (with $10M buyout for Lester and $2M for Rizzo) for 2021 PLUS Arb numbers for Contreras ($4.5M in 2020), Bryant ($18.6M in 2020), Baez ($10M in 2020), Schwarber ($7M in 2020), Happ ($600K in 2020). Plus they have club options of $14.5M for Rizzo ($16.5M in 2021, but $2M buyout already included) and $15M for Lester ($25M in 2021, but $10M buyout already included). Off the books and FA's are Kipnis, Maybin, Hamilton, Chatwood, Quintana, Jeffress... about $31M.

I am willing to bet they go out and get 2 SP, whether that's resigning Chatwood or Quintana or Lester to better deals or another FA. Then with Darvish and Hendricks I bet they let a newby go for #5 (Alzolay or Mills or maybe both and just run with 1 new signing)
 
MeetTheFerentz said:
Unfortunately, this team isn't going to be better next year. They will get worse for the next 2-3 years and then maybe the rebuild will begin. The Cubs have officially mirrored the Tigers since their last W.S. - huge contracts on underperforming players, horrible trades and bare cupboard of a farm system.
Click to expand...

I disagree with the longer view. I do think next year will be one more roll of the dice with the same core (maybe minus a couple guys, like Lester). They'll basically have KB, Javy, Schwarber, Rizzo, Kimbrel and a couple others on 1-year deals. If those guys get back to hitting, then they'll be improved, if they don't, then it'll be a long year.

I think the changes the Cubs made in the pitch lab/pitching development is already showing benefits. I think guys like Rowan Wick, Jason Adam, Ryan Tepera, Adbert Alzolay are among those who showed some real gains this year. Kimbrel was much improved by the end of the year. I'm excited by Marquez as well as Carroway and the other pitchers the Cubs drafted this year.

For the long view, the Cubs are not nearly as locked up as the Tigers were. In 2022, the Cubs will only be paying Darvish (currently performing), Heyward, Hendricks (very fair deal) more than $10M, as far as guys currently on the roster. The Cubs will likely clear $20M this year by taking the buyout for Lester and Quintana leaving. The 2021 season will be the last before KB (projected $22M), Rizzo ($16.5M), Javy (projected $15M), Schwarber (projected $10M) and Kimbrel ($16M) hit free agency. That's $100M per year coming off the books. Some of that will be offset by arb gains from Contreras and Happ and the Cubs will obviously have to fill out a roster, but that's a lot of opportunity for Theo or whoever succeeds him to remake the face of this roster.

After a really weird 2020 season, it's going to be an even weirder offseason. Will teams spend? Will we see a lot of guys who would typically get arbitration allowed to walk? What happens to the various minor league rosters full of guys who didn't play this year? It's going to be really interesting to see.
 
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Cubs had a great farm system several years ago.
Here are some former Chicago Cubs:

With 2019 as the last full season as a measurement,
Jorge Soler hit 48 Home Runs for the KC Royals.

Gleyber Torres in 2019 hit 38 Home Runs for Yankees.

Of course, one Cub who did not get away was Kyle
Schwarber who hit 38 Home Runs in 2019
 
It’s just so irritating watching the Cubs. This team has so so much talent and can’t get anything done. You literally have 3 top 10 players in Javy, Rizzo, and Bryant (excluding this years stats), a much better pitching core now, and a very good defense. This team should be able to contend for the World Series every year but they always seem to blow it. Good it’s hard to be a Cubs fan.
 
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@ScrewTheClowns.........When a MLB team has talent and does
not produce playoff winners, then it is time to look at the manager.
A good manager can motivate his players to work hard for the good
of the team. In 2020, the Cubs were too soft and did not have a
tough mental attitude.
 
chalupa81 said:
Fair point, I think you can get a few high upside/risk A ball players from a team, not top 100 players. But maybe a few that could break into the top 100 with a good minor league season.
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Hope he has a great 2021 start and ask the yankees if they want to bend over or lose again. :)
 
MeetTheFerentz said:
Unfortunately, this team isn't going to be better next year. They will get worse for the next 2-3 years and then maybe the rebuild will begin. The Cubs have officially mirrored the Tigers since their last W.S. - huge contracts on underperforming players, horrible trades and bare cupboard of a farm system.
Click to expand...
Rebuild should be next year and only one year.
 
I watching the Rays and Astros tonight while flipping back and forth on college football games, and I’m beginning to think Tom Ricketts should have invited Theo to leave one year early, and then hired Eric Neander away from TB.
 
First thing that has to happen is the NL needs to adopt the DH. Until they know that, Theo will not be able to improve the team. If the NL gets smart, they'll follow the AL's lead.

So if they do... you keep Schwarber, get Lindor and move Bote to full time 3B. Find someone to take Bryant off your hands and get either a #3 starter in return or defensive left fielder.
 
MitchLL said:
First thing that has to happen is the NL needs to adopt the DH. Until they know that, Theo will not be able to improve the team. If the NL gets smart, they'll follow the AL's lead.

So if they do... you keep Schwarber, get Lindor and move Bote to full time 3B. Find someone to take Bryant off your hands and get either a #3 starter in return or defensive left fielder.
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Agree on the DH thing. I've never wanted it and if I controlled baseball, I'd get rid of it, but I've also recognized for at least a decade that having it in the NL was inevitable. They need to make a decision once and for all so that teams can build in whichever direction is warranted.

Looking at it just from the Cubs' perspective, it makes a huge difference in what they do. If the DH is in place, then Schwarbs with a small arb increase is fine to put out there as DH and part-time LF. If there's no DH, then you have to think harder between his defense and overall lineup flexibility.
 
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hawkifann said:
Agree on the DH thing. I've never wanted it and if I controlled baseball, I'd get rid of it, but I've also recognized for at least a decade that having it in the NL was inevitable. They need to make a decision once and for all so that teams can build in whichever direction is warranted.

Looking at it just from the Cubs' perspective, it makes a huge difference in what they do. If the DH is in place, then Schwarbs with a small arb increase is fine to put out there as DH and part-time LF. If there's no DH, then you have to think harder between his defense and overall lineup flexibility.
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See... I knew we'd find common ground.

Theo has to find a new home for Bryant while the guy still has trade value. You need only look at the NYY and their dilemma with Gary Sanchez. He's total trash and has lost any leverage. Bryant still has some value.
 
MitchLL said:
See... I knew we'd find common ground.

Theo has to find a new home for Bryant while the guy still has trade value. You need only look at the NYY and their dilemma with Gary Sanchez. He's total trash and has lost any leverage. Bryant still has some value.
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Depends on the deal. At this point he's a one-year deal, so it depends on the plan for both what you can get back and what you would do with the saved $$.
 
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hawkifann said:
Depends on the deal. At this point he's a one-year deal, so it depends on the plan for both what you can get back and what you would do with the saved $$.
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Or you lose him in free agency and get next to nothing back.
 
lucas80 said:
I watching the Rays and Astros tonight while flipping back and forth on college football games, and I’m beginning to think Tom Ricketts should have invited Theo to leave one year early, and then hired Eric Neander away from TB.
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Two different types of GM's. One manages with money while the others hands are tied. They have to manage completely differently. This was apparent when Minaya managed a very competitive team in Montreal with limited resources, but when he went to the Mets and got money, he blew it like a meth head who found $100 on the sidewalk. Not saying it couldn't work, but I'd be cautious.
 
MitchLL said:
Or you lose him in free agency and get next to nothing back.
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What do you get in return for a guy who hit .206 w/4 HR's and 11 RBIs in 34 games out of 60. And, the other team knows he may walk. I can't imagine much. Same deal as Sanchez.
 
HawkRugged17 said:
What do you get in return for a guy who hit .206 w/4 HR's and 11 RBIs in 34 games out of 60. And, the other team knows he may walk. I can't imagine much. Same deal as Sanchez.
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The only difference I see is Sanchez wants to be in NY. I don't get the vibe that Bryant wants to be a Cub. So teams will see Bryant as more motivated to do well by leaving Chicago.
 
MitchLL said:
The only difference I see is Sanchez wants to be in NY. I don't get the vibe that Bryant wants to be a Cub. So teams will see Bryant as more motivated to do well by leaving Chicago.
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It's possible you are correct. I would agree that Bryant won't be a Cub forever. I just don't think there's a market at this point. Oh, and ...

 
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MitchLL said:
The problem for the NYY is nobody wants a poor defensive catcher that hit .147 this year. He has zero value.

I'm not afraid to admit he sux.
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This quote is funnier now with Shaq, but there's always a team that thinks they can fix someone. Tampa loves a reclamation project. Heck, the Braves catcher Travis d'Arnaud has been traded twice and released twice - including by the Mets :) (been on 6 teams) and was batting cleanup in the NLCS. Just not sure there's a market for much in return.
the-designated-hitter-rule-is-like-letting-someone-else-take-wilt-chamberlains-free-throws-quote-1.jpg
 
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MitchLL said:
Or you lose him in free agency and get next to nothing back.
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Yes, but the Cubs would have him for 2021. Like I said, it all depends on the timing and the deal. The Cubs effectively have Rizzo, KB, Schwarber, Javy and Kimbrel on one-year deals right now. They have Rizzo and Kimbrel and they have the option on KB, Javy and Schwarbs. I think they have 2 paths right now and they need to pick one and go all-in on it. One of those paths may have another branch later:

Tear Down/Rebuild
The Cubs opt to tear this down and try to complete a 1-2 year rebuild. Committing to this path would mean dealing Rizzo and Kimbrel in the off-season or first half of the season and committing to letting 2 of KB/Javy/Schwarber go by either not offering arbitration or by signing them and dealing them. They might use Happ, Contreras or Hendricks as a separate deals or as sweeteners to get better return, but the Cubs would be committing to clearing $60M+ in contracts (plus $38M left open by Lester, Quintana and Chatwood) to open up space to pursue other players either this off-season or next. If this is the path chosen during this off-season, then they'll need to commit to it and focus more on freeing up cash than on pure return. In this scenario, maybe they do deal KB for low-level minors guys with upside or potentially even for a cost-equivalent player that fills a specific need for the Cubs that has 1-2 years left on a deal.

Run it back one more time
Unless you're going to commit to a tear down, it doesn't make sense to trade KB for a bag of balls this offseason. With those 5 guys on 1-year deals, you have a chance to run a team back out there that has flaws for sure, but also has enough talent to compete in the NL Central. You give the guys the arbitration and eat what's looking like a small raise for each (maybe $6-8M total for the three based on early projections). You take the money you were paying Lester, Quintana and Chatwood (minus Lester's buyout, which leaves roughly $38M based on luxury tax numbers on Spotrac.com). You plug Alzolay into one rotation spot and see if you can get a mid-level guy on a 1-year deal to fill out the other and use some of that $38M to find a solution for the top of the order. You then let the season play out. If the Cubs compete, then you see how far they can go, if the struggle in the first half, then you deal the performers. Either way, there's close to $100M in annual spend that will be opened up in the next 12 months.
 
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hawkifann said:
Yes, but the Cubs would have him for 2021. Like I said, it all depends on the timing and the deal. The Cubs effectively have Rizzo, KB, Schwarber, Javy and Kimbrel on one-year deals right now. They have Rizzo and Kimbrel and they have the option on KB, Javy and Schwarbs. I think they have 2 paths right now and they need to pick one and go all-in on it. One of those paths may have another branch later:

Tear Down/Rebuild
The Cubs opt to tear this down and try to complete a 1-2 year rebuild. Committing to this path would mean dealing Rizzo and Kimbrel in the off-season or first half of the season and committing to letting 2 of KB/Javy/Schwarber go by either not offering arbitration or by signing them and dealing them. They might use Happ, Contreras or Hendricks as a separate deals or as sweeteners to get better return, but the Cubs would be committing to clearing $60M+ in contracts (plus $38M left open by Lester, Quintana and Chatwood) to open up space to pursue other players either this off-season or next. If this is the path chosen during this off-season, then they'll need to commit to it and focus more on freeing up cash than on pure return. In this scenario, maybe they do deal KB for low-level minors guys with upside or potentially even for a cost-equivalent player that fills a specific need for the Cubs that has 1-2 years left on a deal.

Run it back one more time
Unless you're going to commit to a tear down, it doesn't make sense to trade KB for a bag of balls this offseason. With those 5 guys on 1-year deals, you have a chance to run a team back out there that has flaws for sure, but also has enough talent to compete in the NL Central. You give the guys the arbitration and eat what's looking like a small raise for each (maybe $6-8M total for the three based on early projections). You take the money you were paying Lester, Quintana and Chatwood (minus Lester's buyout, which leaves roughly $38M based on luxury tax numbers on Spotrac.com). You plug Alzolay into one rotation spot and see if you can get a mid-level guy on a 1-year deal to fill out the other and use some of that $38M to find a solution for the top of the order. You then let the season play out. If the Cubs compete, then you see how far they can go, if the struggle in the first half, then you deal the performers. Either way, there's close to $100M in annual spend that will be opened up in the next 12 months.
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I'm impressed with your scenarios. The thought process, not the players.

I may be alone on this thought, but I thought the WS title in 206 was a precursor of a 4-6 year run. Things didn't pan out that way. And it really wasn't injury related.
 
MitchLL said:
I'm impressed with your scenarios. The thought process, not the players.

I may be alone on this thought, but I thought the WS title in 206 was a precursor of a 4-6 year run. Things didn't pan out that way. And it really wasn't injury related.
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To your first comment, the players are what they are. I don't get to just re-draw some new scenarios involving different players. Those are the decisions the Cubs have to make with the players they have. The money is the money.

In fairness, they did have that run. NLCS in 2015 started the run. WS champs in 2016. NLCS in 2017. Tied for best record in NL in 2018. Horrendous finish in 2019 and missed playoffs. The 2020 season was bizarre in a hundred ways, but the Cubs did win the division. This core may be together one more time in 2021 and there's no reason to think that they couldn't compete for the Central title.

So, in six seasons, they've made the playoffs 5 times, NLCS 3x, have a ring and have 3 division titles plus a 4th season where they tied for the regular season title. I have a really hard time saying they didn't have a 4-6 year run. It would be like saying the Braves didn't sustain a decade of success or that the Buffalo Bills were a failure during the Jim Kelly era. You can be a good team and sustain a lot of success and not necessarily be a "dynasty".

Another reality that has to be considered here is that Theo made his push and rebuilt his way right as the baseball landscape was changing. Theo made a lot of hay with young, cost-controlled players, but as he was doing that and focusing on college kids, other teams (Astros, Rays, Dodgers) were early adopters of the current player development trends. As a result, other teams have rocketed up quickly as well. Astros have a ring. Boston has a ring. The Nationals have a ring. Maybe the Dodgers will finally get one. This is not an era that's going to lend itself well to dynasties. Who is going to be good enough to plow over the Astros, Yankees, Dodgers every year?

I think too many people looked at 2015 and 2016 and just assumed the Cubs were going to roll without looking at how good the Dodgers were even in 2016 and how teams like the Astros were building from within.

Winning is hard.
 
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Interesting piece from BN about potential financial troubles for 2021. The Cubs laid off 100 employees recently. I expect this will be an uninspiring offseason for the Cubs, and Theo will be making a lot of decisions by 12/2, which will be well before he knows exactly how much money he will have for 2021. Will their be fans in the stands, and if so how many? Will Marquee be able to deliver the money they were projecting?
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs...r-the-cubs-could-mean-releasing-star-players/
 
This is certainly not the year to be a free agent looking for a long term, high $ deal. Teams lost boatloads of cash-- even the Rays who deal with minimal salaries and are in the World Series will be taking a big hit. Terrible season for them to get to the world series and lose out on all those ticket sales.
 
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MitchLL said:
The only difference I see is Sanchez wants to be in NY. I don't get the vibe that Bryant wants to be a Cub. So teams will see Bryant as more motivated to do well by leaving Chicago.
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This cub fan doesn't want him to be a cub either. Made of glass and cries about money even when he's sucking or injured. I know they won't release him if nobody wants to give anything for him but I get the feeling he's a clubhouse killer like Sammy was. Good riddance, pretty boy
 
HawkRugged17 said:
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Descalso should run off like a thief in the night with his $, and ten years of service. He fleeced Theo. I don't care that he had injuries, he fleeced Theo on the guaranteed contract.
Glad to see Rizzo is coming back. You will not find a better defensive first baseman, and even though the bat is slowing I think he will be productive next year. Plus, he gives you intangibles.
 
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Jed taking over as Director of Baseball Ops. No big surprise, but probably a good time to transition leadership.
 
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