*******Official Cubs 2025 Thread*******

[hawkifann]

2024 is over and it’s time to start looking ahead. I don’t have much more to say other than I picked 7 asterisks because it’s been that many years without this franchise winning a postseason game.

I’m not a rule maker, but I’m going to try to keep this thread off-season and forward-focused. Let’s definitely keep today’s mess in the 2024 thread.

I always say we’ll have plenty of time to be mad when it’s over. Well….Are you ready? I’m ready. HERE! WE! GO!

 

[hawkirugged17]

 

[lucas80]

The first impactful order of business will be does Bellinger stay or go? That triggers different needs and financial obligations.
Smyly and the Cubs have a mutual option, which I am meh, on. I could be wrong, but Hendricks only had this year, right? No buyouts or options for next year by him or the Cubs?

 

[chalupa81]

The first impactful order of business will be does Bellinger stay or go? That triggers different needs and financial obligations.
Smyly and the Cubs have a mutual option, which I am meh, on. I could be wrong, but Hendricks only had this year, right? No buyouts or options for next year by him or the Cubs?

Hendricks is free and clear so no more salary. Smyly might have a $2.5M buyout?

I think Bellinger will opt out. Not that he will get more per year, but will get a few more years added into the contract. Maybe a 4 year $90M deal? He has no qualifying offer so that will help his market. If he opts out, there is no reason the Cubs shouldn’t give $500M+ to Soto. He is everything the Cubs want (young, elite hitter, franchise player), but I have no faith that Ricketts will let Jed spend that much on him.

To be honest, I have zero faith in Jed.

You have $55M in 2024 payroll coming off the books from Hendricks, Smyly, Bote, Madrigal, Neris, Mancini, Gomes, and Barnhart. Guys that gave you almost nothing in 2024.

You also have to figure out what you are going to do with guys like Shaw, Alacantara, Caissie, and Triantos. You either need to move half of them or get them up to the big leagues.

That is why I am a fan of moving Horner to get some big league help (closer?) and giving Shaw some runtime at 2nd.

 

[hawkifann]

The first impactful order of business will be does Bellinger stay or go? That triggers different needs and financial obligations.
Smyly and the Cubs have a mutual option, which I am meh, on. I could be wrong, but Hendricks only had this year, right? No buyouts or options for next year by him or the Cubs?

You’re correct all around. Belli will be the first shoe to drop for anything. Hendricks is a FA, no options/buyouts left and Smyly has a mutual option for $10M. I’m a lean against Smyly, but pitching depth is good, so I won’t freak out if they pick it up.

 

[lucas80]

Hendricks is free and clear so no more salary. Smyly might have a $2.5M buyout?

I think Bellinger will opt out. Not that he will get more per year, but will get a few more years added into the contract. Maybe a 4 year $90M deal? He has no qualifying offer so that will help his market. If he opts out, there is no reason the Cubs shouldn’t give $500M+ to Soto. He is everything the Cubs want (young, elite hitter, franchise player), but I have no faith that Ricketts will let Jed spend that much on him.

To be honest, I have zero faith in Jed.

You have $55M in 2024 payroll coming off the books from Hendricks, Smyly, Bote, Madrigal, Neris, Mancini, Gomes, and Barnhart. Guys that gave you almost nothing in 2024.

You also have to figure out what you are going to do with guys like Shaw, Alacantara, Caissie, and Triantos. You either need to move half of them or get them up to the big leagues.

That is why I am a fan of moving Horner to get some big league help (closer?) and giving Shaw some runtime at 2nd.

I think only Cassie has to be added to the 40 man this offseason. Alcantara is already on it. Brennen Davis gets dropped because of health issues, so there is Cassie's spot. I'm not sure if there is a pitcher they really will need to add to the 40 man to protect.
The money coming off the books, and the point about Nico are spot on. Trading Nico nets a solid return, and opens up some flexibility. lots of teams will want a Gold Glove 2B who can hit. For the Cubs it would be about trying to add power to a roster that can be stagnant.
Shaw might be ready to play there. Or, you might also look at 3B. And, partially depending on what Bellinger does, you can add a full time bat at DH. Maybe slide Suzuki to DH, and either add from within or from outside in RH with a big bat.

 

[hawkifann]

I think only Cassie has to be added to the 40 man this offseason. Alcantara is already on it. Brennen Davis gets dropped because of health issues, so there is Cassie's spot. I'm not sure if there is a pitcher they really will need to add to the 40 man to protect.
The money coming off the books, and the point about Nico are spot on. Trading Nico nets a solid return, and opens up some flexibility. lots of teams will want a Gold Glove 2B who can hit. For the Cubs it would be about trying to add power to a roster that can be stagnant.
Shaw might be ready to play there. Or, you might also look at 3B. And, partially depending on what Bellinger does, you can add a full time bat at DH. Maybe slide Suzuki to DH, and either add from within or from outside in RH with a big bat.

I’ll get into trade speculation later, but to the roster point, yes Caissie is a must add. Neely would have been, but obviously he has been. Next is probably Riley Martin, but I don’t think there’s great risk there. What’s worth noting about the 40-man is that it’s not just as simple as Davis out, Caissie in. The Cubs currently have 48 guys on the 40-man because of the 60-day IL, which has to be cleared within 5 days of the end of the WS.

Guys hitting free agency: Hendricks, Lopez, Bethancourt
Player option: Bellinger
Mutual option: Smyly
60-day IL: Almonte, Alzolay, Brewer, Brown, Little, Merryweather, Madrigal, Davis

So the Cubs currently have 40 guys on the 40-man. Once season is over, remove the 3 pending FAs and let’s assume Smyly goes. That’s 36. There’s still the Bellinger question plus 7 guys the Cubs have to decide on. That’s 44. The Cubs can certainly make the cuts to get to 39 to add Caissie, but that means letting 5 guys go. Adbert and Davis probably get DFA and maybe signed back on MiLB deals. Almonte, Brown, Little & Merryweather almost certainly get added back. Madrigal? Wisdom? Do any arb guys get non-tendered? Lots of decisions to make before they even start the offseason.

 

[lucas80]

I’ll get into trade speculation later, but to the roster point, yes Caissie is a must add. Neely would have been, but obviously he has been. Next is probably Riley Martin, but I don’t think there’s great risk there. What’s worth noting about the 40-man is that it’s not just as simple as Davis out, Caissie in. The Cubs currently have 48 guys on the 40-man because of the 60-day IL, which has to be cleared within 5 days of the end of the WS.

Guys hitting free agency: Hendricks, Lopez, Bethancourt
Player option: Bellinger
Mutual option: Smyly
60-day IL: Almonte, Alzolay, Brewer, Brown, Little, Merryweather, Madrigal, Davis

So the Cubs currently have 40 guys on the 40-man. Once season is over, remove the 3 pending FAs and let’s assume Smyly goes. That’s 36. There’s still the Bellinger question plus 7 guys the Cubs have to decide on. That’s 44. The Cubs can certainly make the cuts to get to 39 to add Caissie, but that means letting 5 guys go. Adbert and Davis probably get DFA and maybe signed back on MiLB deals. Almonte, Brown, Little & Merryweather almost certainly get added back. Madrigal? Wisdom? Do any arb guys get non-tendered? Lots of decisions to make before they even start the offseason.

Madrigal, Wisdom.. Gone. I think Vazquez sticks as a bench guy next season.
Alzolay isn't going to pitch next season for anyone, so yes, cut and try to sign back on a 2 year MiLB deal. Probably the same for Davis. Merryweather has a history of being unable to stay healthy. I doubt he comes back. He'll be 33 next season, and I don't think he's every pitched a full season in the majors.

 

[SoDakHawk]

 

[QChawks]

I will concede, but if they don’t win more than 83 games next year you lose your rights for 2026 😎

 

[MitchLL]

I realize having back to back winning seasons is a great accomplishment for this team, but being in, arguably, the worst division in baseball ...

You guys need mgmt change AT THE TOP.

 

[hawkifann]

I will concede, but if they don’t win more than 83 games next year you lose your rights for 2026 😎

Barring some crazy outlier set of circumstances, next year really has to be playoffs or bust for Jed vs number of wins. I can’t see an 85 win team missing the playoffs and losing the division to Milwaukee by 8 games leading to a shiny new contract for Jed.

 

[ICWestfan]

We now know who @hawkifann is. Who are you?

 

[win1forthe]

Coaching changes, Napoli (1st base), Adduci (hitting), Holmes (bullpen),and a couple of strength coaches not returning.

 

[hawkirugged17]

Coaching changes, Napoli (1st base), Adduci (hitting), Holmes (bullpen),and a couple of strength coaches not returning.

Bye to this former Cedar Rapids Kernel ... one of my kids favorites.

 

[lucas80]

Bye to this former Cedar Rapids Kernel ... one of my kids favorites.

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Cool. Maybe they’ll find a 4 WAR 1st base coach out there for next season.

 

[hawkifann]

Coaching changes, Napoli (1st base), Adduci (hitting), Holmes (bullpen),and a couple of strength coaches not returning.

I have to think that this is Craig making some moves to bring in more of his own picks. I’ve seen a lot of talk on twitter about “scapegoating” the hitting coach, but on the Cubs hitting org chart, Kelly and Mellee are at the top, so I think this is just Craig doing some shuffling. We’ll see.

 

[lucas80]

Side note, the Cardinals seem to be shopping Sonny Gray after moving on from Paul Goldschmidt. Moving on from Goldschmidt is the right move, but moving Gray tells us the Cardinals have some issues.
I also think the FA market isn't going to be as robust as many players are counting on this offseason. Soto probably gets his, but it could be a disappointing year for a lot of FAs.

 

[St. Louis Hawk]

Side note, the Cardinals seem to be shopping Sonny Gray after moving on from Paul Goldschmidt. Moving on from Goldschmidt is the right move, but moving Gray tells us the Cardinals have some issues.
I also think the FA market isn't going to be as robust as many players are counting on this offseason. Soto probably gets his, but it could be a disappointing year for a lot of FAs.

Cards held a press conference yesterday where they essentially said they were cutting payroll in 25, allegedly to invest in their farm system - which they have let slip for a couple years.

Fans are less than happy here. It’s glorious.

 

[MitchLL]

NL Central looks like another pillow fight in 2025.

 

[lucas80]

A first look at 2025 arbitration projections. This gives me some ideas as to who will be back, and who won't be. Almonte and Alzolay are both on the 60 day IL. Alzolay we know isn't going to pitch next season. I can see both be non tendered. Almonte they seriously risk losing. I think Alzolay they sign to a 2 year deal back loaded for a healthy return. Merryweather is in the same boat. I can see the Cubs moving on even though he's projected at "only", a little over $1 million.
Given his age, I am surprised that Bethancourt pops in at $2.5 million for next season. That's a maybe.
It think we have seen the last of Wisdom and Madrigal.
Paredes shows up at almost $7 million, and I would not be shocked at all if he does not return, or he returns, but gets traded. He is an expensive insurance policy with limited coverage at this point in my mind.
They would be nuts to let Tauchman go for $3 million or less.
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2024/10/02/cubs-arbitration-projections/

 

[MeetTheFerentzes]

Cubs will have 48 on the 40-man when the 60-day IL players are activated, only 2 true free agents (Hendricks, Lopez), and at least one player will need room on the roster for activation prior to the R5D. So, one way or another, Jed has got to flush some dirt in early November. Lots of non-tender and trade candidates as you guys have indicated. There was just plain too much dead weight on the 2024 roster, as there were so many guys who took up space and contributed very little if anything. Jed can't sit on his ass again this offseason and let it happen again.

Free agents - Hendricks, Lopez, possibly Smyly and Bellinger

Most likely non-tender candidates - Brewer, Herget, Merryweather, Pearson

May have some trade value, or else non-tendered - Madrigal, Mervis, Paredes, Wisdom

Candidates to let go due to injury issues - Alzolay, Davis

 

[MeetTheFerentzes]

Bye to this former Cedar Rapids Kernel ... one of my kids favorites.

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What does someone have to do to lose his job as a 1st base coach?

 

[hawkirugged17]

What does someone have to do to lose his job as a 1st base coach?

 

[MitchLL]

What does someone have to do to lose his job as a 1st base coach?

Looking for as many scapegoats as possible.
When you have the highest paid manager in MLB, and the guy that replaced him in Milwaukee won the division as a rookie manager...it makes the entire mgmt team look like an assortment of putzs.

 

[jamesvanderwulf]

Side note, the Cardinals seem to be shopping Sonny Gray after moving on from Paul Goldschmidt. Moving on from Goldschmidt is the right move, but moving Gray tells us the Cardinals have some issues.
I also think the FA market isn't going to be as robust as many players are counting on this offseason. Soto probably gets his, but it could be a disappointing year for a lot of FAs.

Slid over the hill this year. One of the classiest guys in BB ( never and I mean never argued a ball/strike call with an umpire ) but 1st basemen are the most replaceable guys on the diamond. The Cards won 12 more games than last year while the Cubs stayed the same despite spending 35 million more than the Cards. Might be a total tear down if they move Arenado, Grey and Helsley ( bad move ).

 

[lucas80]

Slid over the hill this year. One of the classiest guys in BB ( never and I mean never argued a ball/strike call with an umpire ) but 1st basemen are the most replaceable guys on the diamond. The Cards won 12 more games than last year while the Cubs stayed the same despite spending 50-60 million more than the Cards. Might be a total tear down if they move Arenado, Grey and Helsley ( bad move ).

Lowest attendance since 2006, too. Congrats on saving money and not being in the playoffs.

 

[lucas80]

Cubs will have 48 on the 40-man when the 60-day IL players are activated, only 2 true free agents (Hendricks, Lopez), and at least one player will need room on the roster for activation prior to the R5D. So, one way or another, Jed has got to flush some dirt in early November. Lots of non-tender and trade candidates as you guys have indicated. There was just plain too much dead weight on the 2024 roster, as there were so many guys who took up space and contributed very little if anything. Jed can't sit on his ass again this offseason and let it happen again.

Free agents - Hendricks, Lopez, possibly Smyly and Bellinger

Most likely non-tender candidates - Brewer, Herget, Merryweather, Pearson

May have some trade value, or else non-tendered - Madrigal, Mervis, Paredes, Wisdom

Candidates to let go due to injury issues - Alzolay, Davis

Those two will absolutely be off the 40 man. Brewer, Herget, and I think Wingenter is on it. All gone. Bethancourt, Wisdom and Madrigal, gone. That's 8, and I didn't break a sweat.

 

[jamesvanderwulf]

Lowest attendance since 2006, too. Congrats on saving money and not being in the playoffs.

Congrats on spending an extra 35 million for the same not making the playoffs record. Congrats on drawing 30K more fans in a metro area 3X the size of St.Louis...

 

[lucas80]

Congrats on spending an extra 35 million for the same not making the playoffs record. Congrats on drawing 30K more fans in a metro area 3X the size of St.Louis...

Someone has a bad case of the Cyclone Fans insecurity complex tonight. It's okay Little Brother, go to sleep.

 

[jamesvanderwulf]

Someone has a bad case of the Cyclone Fans insecurity complex tonight. It's okay Little Brother, go to sleep.

Not till my Padres and Mike Shildt are done playing...

 

[hawkifann]

A first look at 2025 arbitration projections. This gives me some ideas as to who will be back, and who won't be. Almonte and Alzolay are both on the 60 day IL. Alzolay we know isn't going to pitch next season. I can see both be non tendered. Almonte they seriously risk losing. I think Alzolay they sign to a 2 year deal back loaded for a healthy return. Merryweather is in the same boat. I can see the Cubs moving on even though he's projected at "only", a little over $1 million.
Given his age, I am surprised that Bethancourt pops in at $2.5 million for next season. That's a maybe.
It think we have seen the last of Wisdom and Madrigal.
Paredes shows up at almost $7 million, and I would not be shocked at all if he does not return, or he returns, but gets traded. He is an expensive insurance policy with limited coverage at this point in my mind.
They would be nuts to let Tauchman go for $3 million or less.
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2024/10/02/cubs-arbitration-projections/

They might trade Paredes, but I can’t imagine trading Morel, Bigge and Johnson for him talking about improving the team for 2025 and beyond and then just non-tendering him. I’d be absolutely shocked and it would almost have to be a fireable offense. Trade? Fine, use his value.

As for the rest, mostly agree. Alzolay likely a 2-yr MiLB deal to rehab (Fulmer got that with Boston this year). Merryweather a coin flip. I think they’ll tender Almonte. Would certainly hope Wisdom and Madrigal are gone. Tauch is a no-brainer for that money (really even for a couple mill more). Bare minimum, you have a tradeable asset. Bethancourt likely depends on whether they’re going to pursue another catcher.

i think Brewer won’t be tendered.

 

[hawkifann]

Cubs will have 48 on the 40-man when the 60-day IL players are activated, only 2 true free agents (Hendricks, Lopez), and at least one player will need room on the roster for activation prior to the R5D. So, one way or another, Jed has got to flush some dirt in early November. Lots of non-tender and trade candidates as you guys have indicated. There was just plain too much dead weight on the 2024 roster, as there were so many guys who took up space and contributed very little if anything. Jed can't sit on his ass again this offseason and let it happen again.

Free agents - Hendricks, Lopez, possibly Smyly and Bellinger

Most likely non-tender candidates - Brewer, Herget, Merryweather, Pearson

May have some trade value, or else non-tendered - Madrigal, Mervis, Paredes, Wisdom

Candidates to let go due to injury issues - Alzolay, Davis

I’ll be shocked if Pearson gets non-tendered. I think he’ll at least get spring training to push for a role. Brewer likely gone and I don’t know about Herget, they signed him so late, that it may mean they’re going ot give him an offseason plan and see what happens in the spring.

As I said in another post, they don’t trade 3 guys for Paredes after talking about improving 2025 and beyond and then non-tendering Isaac. Would think there’s no shot there. The rest entirely possible. Maybe Mervis gets tendered and tossed in a deal somewhere.

Like Alzolay, I could see Davis coming back on a MiLB deal, but we’ll see what he wants to do, he’s had a pretty crappy 3 years and I feel terrible for him.

 

[hawkifann]

Looking for as many scapegoats as possible.
When you have the highest paid manager in MLB, and the guy that replaced him in Milwaukee won the division as a rookie manager...it makes the entire mgmt team look like an assortment of putzs.

Jed addressed this at his presser - Counsell came in late in the game last year and retained a lot of Rossy’s prior staff. This is about him having a chance to bring in more of “his” guys. Most of the guys let go (I think all of them but could be wrong on one or two) were Ross holdovers.

 

[hawkifann]

Those two will absolutely be off the 40 man. Brewer, Herget, and I think Wingenter is on it. All gone. Bethancourt, Wisdom and Madrigal, gone. That's 8, and I didn't break a sweat.

Remember they also need to add Owen Caissie to the 40 before the R5 draft and Jed likes to spend most of the offseason at 39 so he maintains space for waiver claims, so that likely means cutting down from 48 to 38. Caissie doesn’t have to be added until the 2nd half of November (deadline around the 20th, I think), but I assume they’ll just take care of it so whoever the additional person out would be would have more time to catch on with another team.

 

[MitchLL]

Jed addressed this at his presser - Counsell came in late in the game last year and retained a lot of Rossy’s prior staff. This is about him having a chance to bring in more of “his” guys. Most of the guys let go (I think all of them but could be wrong on one or two) were Ross holdovers.

Watching the Cubs this season on occasion, the problem isn't the various other coaches.
The Ricketts need a complete overhaul.

 

[hawkifann]

Watching the Cubs this season on occasion, the problem isn't the various other coaches.
The Ricketts need a complete overhaul.

That’s next year unless Jed figures this shit out on the fly somehow.

 

[lucas80]

BCB had a write up yesterday that gave MLB Pipeline's top 100 prospects, and the Cubs had 8 of them. That's stellar by any measure.
22 Shaw
34 Cassie
42 Horton
44 Ballesteros
55 Triantos
67 Alcantara
73 Smtih
100 Rojas

Josh, who does their minor league stuff speculated that Cassie and Triantos are the most likely pieces of trade bait in the Cubs system.

 

[ihawk in FWB]

BCB had a write up yesterday that gave MLB Pipeline's top 100 prospects, and the Cubs had 8 of them. That's stellar by any measure.
22 Shaw
34 Cassie
42 Horton
44 Ballesteros
55 Triantos
67 Alcantara
73 Smtih
100 Rojas

Josh, who does their minor league stuff speculated that Cassie and Triantos are the most likely pieces of trade bait in the Cubs system.

How many of those guys will have a chance to play in Chicago next season?

I assume some may be traded?

 

[chalupa81]

How many of those guys will have a chance to play in Chicago next season?

I assume some may be traded?

I would trade Hoerner and let Shaw play 2nd. You save salary, get some talent in return, and let Shaw show what he can do.