NOT OUT OF IT, BUT HOPES ARE SLIM
Cincinnati Reds (7.2%): This is frustrating. The Reds finally have a good rotation (second-best ERA in the NL), but the offense has struggled and the bullpen hasn't been clutch (24th in the majors in the FanGraphs "clutch" index). The Reds are 39-44 and 4½ games out of a wild-card spot and just 5½ behind the Brewers, but they do have a plus-37 run differential, fifth best in the NL and are 39 runs better than the Brewers, which is why their playoff odds still hover this high. Still, they have a lot of teams to jump over and they could end up being sellers if they don't get on a hot streak soon.
New York Mets (6.6%): FanGraphs projects a rest-of-season winning percentage of .518 -- better than the Phillies, Brewers and Rockies -- so we can't count the Mets out just yet. Hey, it's not inconceivable for
Jacob deGrom,
Noah Syndergaard and
Zack Wheeler to perform much better in the second half. Still, it will take a 10-game winning streak just to get back over .500, and the bullpen is a complete disaster right now. I'll take the under on that 6.6%.
Pittsburgh Pirates (6.2%): They're ahead of the Reds in the standings and have received a breakout season from
Josh Bell, plus surprising rookie seasons from
Bryan Reynolds and
Kevin Newman, but they lack power. And with
Chris Archer struggling and
Jameson Taillon on the IL, the rotation -- supposedly the strength of the team -- has been a letdown. They have 27 games left against the Cubs and Cardinals -- 35% of their remaining schedule.
Los Angeles Angels (2.2%): The devastating death of
Tyler Skaggs will be a difficult emotional hurdle to overcome. From a baseball standpoint, he'd also been their best starting pitcher (7-7, 4.29 ERA). The Angels have a tough schedule the rest of the way, including 17 games against the Astros -- somehow they've played them only twice so far. They also have two series against the Red Sox, one at Yankee Stadium and two games at Dodger Stadium. It looks like another season with
Mike Trout watching the playoffs on TV.
Chicago White Sox (0.1%): The White Sox have probably overachieved just to be a few games under .500 as FanGraphs forecasts some big-time regression in the second half (.425 winning percentage the rest of the way).
Lucas Giolitoand
James McCann have been two of the biggest surprises and made the All-Star team.
Yoan Moncada has already surpassed last year's WAR, and
Eloy Jimenez has shown why he'll be an elite slugger. At least they're interesting for the first time in a long time.
TIME TO PLAN THOSE CARIBBEAN VACATIONS FOR OCTOBER
San Francisco Giants: Thanks to one of the best bullpens in the game, the Giants haven't been a complete disaster in 2019, but the long rebuild is just beginning. Some of those relievers will be traded,
Madison Bumgarner might be traded and six of the eight players with the most plate appearances are 30 or older.
Seattle Mariners: The season is disappointing only in the context of that 13-2 start. The Mariners didn't expect to contend and this is a bad baseball team, especially horrid on defense and in the bullpen. Jerry Dipoto has already churned through 32 pitchers (not including position players) and 15 of the 32 have an ERA over 6.00. Yuck. A few bright spots:
Daniel Vogelbach hits bombs and draws walks;
J.P. Crawford has hit since his call-up; the
Robinson Cano/
Edwin Diaz trade looks good with those two struggling and Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn making the Futures Game.
Toronto Blue Jays: The Jays' .372 winning percentage would be their first below .450 since 2004 and their worst since a .349 mark in 1981. That was one bad baseball team. They hit .226 and averaged just 3.1 runs per game. However, they had three 21-year-old outfielders named Jesse Barfield, George Bell and Lloyd Moseby who became the foundation of the 1985 playoff team, the first in franchise history. This Jays team will hope that
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.,
Cavan Biggio and Bo Bichette (probably called up in the second half) will be this generation's version of Barfield, Bell and Moseby. Now they just need a Dave Stieb.
Miami Marlins: The Marlins actually have played respectable baseball for the past month and a half. Since a 10-31 start through May 15, they've gone 22-20. There isn't much offense here and it's not even a young lineup (the average position player age is older than league average), but the starting rotation is young and has been effective.
Kansas City Royals: The Royals are probably the most
interesting of the bottom-feeders thanks to
Adalberto Mondesi's all-world excitement,
Hunter Dozier's breakout at the plate and
Whit Merrifield's all-around excellence. They will be tempted to trade Merrifield -- he's a perfect fit for the Dodgers -- and given that he's 30 years old, they should at least listen very closely to offers for him.
Detroit Tigers: Well, the Tigers are last in the AL in runs, home runs, average, OBP and slugging. They've averaged 3.42 runs per game in a league that has averaged 4.81 per game. Put it this way: Their wRC+ (adjusted for league and park) of 75 would be the third worst since 2000, better only than the 2004 Diamondbacks (74) and 2013 Marlins (74). Their big question: Do they cash in on the strong seasons of starter
Matthew Boyd and closer
Shane Greene? I'd keep Boyd and hope for a future rotation built around him,
Spencer Turnbull, Casey Mize and Matt Manning. That seems the best/only hope to get back into playoff contention by 2021 or 2022.
Baltimore Orioles: The 2002-03 Tigers went 55-106 and 43-119. In 2006, they were in the World Series. The 2012-13 Astros went 55-107 and 55-111. In 2015, they were in the playoffs and in 2017 they won the World Series. Don't give up, Orioles fans!