Storm, I think your predictions are very practical and make a lot of sense. Conventional wisdom probably would have Iowa a year away from a "break out" season. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if 20-22 wins is about right for this team.
HOWEVER, the conventional wisdom of Iowa being a year away from breaking through that 20-22 win threshold has been said for several years now. Call me crazy, but I think this is the year Iowa surpasses expectations. Yes, I think this is the year we see a Fran-coached Iowa team start AND finish strong. And I'm going to lay out a few reasons why I think this year could be different. Before I do, though, I want to offer a simple disclaimer: I'm not suggesting by any stretch of the imagination that the season is a failure if Iowa doesn't win 25+ games or makes a deep run in March. I'm simply offering reasons why that COULD happen.
1. This is the first season in which I believe Iowa will have at least 4 players scoring in double figures. In fact, I predict 5 are possible, with JBo, Cook, Moss, Garza, and Baer being the likely candidates. (That list doesn't include Pemsl, who averaged almost 9 per game last season.) This team will be more balanced scoring than they've ever been under Fran.
2. This team is legitimately 10 deep.
3. PG play. So critically important to the success of any team. Iowa has never had a PG who was a legitimate scoring threat under Fran. This year they do. JBo should be poised to pick off where he left off at the end of last year and provide even greater scoring.
4. Iowa has a legitimate scoring threat in the post (Garza).
5. I believe the defense can improve to mediocre this year. I also think rebounding will improve as well.
Depth, balanced scoring, maturation of younger players (Moss, JBo, Cook, etc.), and slightly improved defense could add 4-5 more wins than expected this year and translate to a 3rd or 4th seed come tourney time.
