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Omicron ready to blow up in the US

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HR Heisman
Mar 8, 2010
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3 percent of cases already.

In Washington state yesterday 13% of cases analyzed were Omicron.

All signs seem to point to this variant becoming widespread and quite possibly usurping Delta.

With 3 shots (2 + booster) we're seeing 70-75 protection against infection. However, the number will almost assuredly be higher for protection against severe disease. Early returns say Omicron seems to be less virulent, but that's not been hammered down yet. Even with a less virulent disease, increased transmissibility could offset gains in reduction of virulence by putting more people in the hospital. Key here will be the degree of reduction in virulency of Omicron.


 
That's good right? Highly contagious, not very deadly. This is going to be OK. Getting some natural immunity spread around in a less deadly form.

Between my vaccine and the impending case of the 'cron' I should be well equipped to cheat death.

Definitely could be some silver linings here. I think that may be how we escape this thing, gain some immunity before being infected... and with each subsequent infection become stronger.

Still not sure how much less virulent Omicron is. (if it is at all -- although it seems that way)

Could still be a huge problem to contend with for our healthcare system. We shall see.
 
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How many people has it killed 2 or 3?
1 in England, although I'm not sure Omicron caused it.

New study from J&J showed no deaths in South Africa from Omicron.

Medical professionals down there seem rather optimistic

 
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Plus with the Pfizer anti viral news….this thing is on the ropes
 
South Africa Covid data. Huge spike, but still no indications a big wave in death is coming like previous waves. Need a little more time, though.

 
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Evidence seems to point strongly to the case that Omicron is more transmissible but less severe. All reports on the ground in SA still indicate this is what people are seeing. Most of the people admitted with Omicron are discovered because they're in the hospital for something else.

HOWEVER...it's not definitive, and the "less severe" aspect could simply be the effect of the virus on people who were already inoculated by vaccine (low in SA) or previous exposure (high in SA). It's possible it isn't an actually less severe variant, and we're just seeing the effects on a population that's been pretty much fully inoculated one way or the other at this point.

And that is its own kind of good news anyway. But until definitively proven less severe, if it is more transmissible than Delta, it could still rip through pockets of people that are unvaccinated and haven't had it already.

The important thing, is that there is no evidence that this variant is making vaccinated/previously exposed people sick.

The bottom line is this looks like an expected step toward what everyone with any honesty or intelligence is acknowledging...COVID is here to stay as an endemic illness like the flu or a hundred other respiratory diseases. We now have multiple vaccines and multiple effective treatments. Continuing to breathlessly react to case counts with hysteria or restrictions is not sane or productive in any way. People will continue to test positive for COVID forever, and some non-zero number of people will die of it every year, like they do from the flu.

At this point, whether COVID is "over" or not is pretty much a state of mind. For vast segments of the population and areas of the country, it's been over the better part of a year now. For other parts of the popuation, it will literally never be over, because there will always be cases and seasonal spikes.
 
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So, was just reading this morning on indications for why Omicron seems to be the way it is. This is very preliminary and may not turn out to be exactly true with more study.

Early studies show that Omicron multiplies in the bronchial tubes 70x faster than Delta. With such a higher viral load in the upper respiratory system, it is much more transmissible. And it's 10x slower to replicate in the lungs, hence much less severe disease.

If true, that explains more transmissible/less severe. And apparently vaccines are less effective against bronchial spread as well.

If true, this will spread (is spreading) so quickly there is not mitigation measure to stop it. We're all getting this one boys and girls. In the macro, that's not a bad thing for the vast majority of us, and is probably part of the evolution of this thing into just another endemic mild seasonal respiratory virus...sounds like this will quickly outcompete the more severe Delta.

In the micro however, anyone who is vulnerable and unvaccinated that has managed to not get COVID so far is going to get this one. There will be deaths.
 
It's already the dominant variant if I had to bet. Saw where it's basically 100% of Covid samples in Orlando wastewater yet they don't have a single clinically diagnosed case.
 
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That's good right? Highly contagious, not very deadly. This is going to be OK. Getting some natural immunity spread around in a less deadly form.

Between my vaccine and the impending case of the 'cron' I should be well equipped to cheat death.
It would be good news if it overtakes Delta and is less dangerous. The best-case scenario would be for it to burn through the populations fast and then disappear.
 
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It's already the dominant variant if I had to bet. Saw where it's basically 100% of Covid samples in Orlando wastewater yet they don't have a single clinically diagnosed case.
 
Osterholm put out these three possibilities:

1. Co-circulation. This would happen if both are similar in transmissibility and Omicron is able to evade Delta antibodies.

2. Omicron beats out Delta to become dominant strain. If Omicron is more transmissible and Omicron antibodies thwart the spread of Delta, Omicron wins.

3. An Omicron wave followed by a Delta resurgence and the extinction of Omicron. Omicron would have to be less infectious.

Osterholm be like.... grab your popcorn, we're about to watch something crazy play out in real time
 
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Osterholm put out these three possibilities:

1. Co-circulation. This would happen if both are similar in transmissibility and Omicron is able to evade Delta antibodies.

2. Omicron beats out Delta to become dominant strain. If Omicron is more transmissible and Omicron antibodies thwart the spread of Delta, Omicron wins.

3. An Omicron wave followed by a Delta resurgence and the extinction of Omicron. Omicron would have to be less infectious.

Osterholm be like.... grab your popcorn, we're about to watch something crazy play out in real time

Think we've answered the transmissibility question -- Omicron wins easily.

But will omicron antibodies knockout Delta?
 
What I love is that with each new "variant" more and more Americans move into the who cares category. I've been there from the get to.
Do you think anyone is surprised you are indifferent to 800,000 American deaths? Be thankful one of those 800,000 deaths isn’t someone you care about.
 
We‘re now being told cases don’t matter, hospitalizations and deaths matter.
If Omicron isn’t causing that, then no need to panic and discuss case numbers going up and down anymore.
 
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We‘re now being told cases don’t matter, hospitalizations and deaths matter.
If Omicron isn’t causing that, then no need to panic and discuss case numbers going up and down anymore.
I'm not sure if that's true but that should of been what we should have been looking at the most all along.

But the fear mongers who have gained celebrity and/or power aren't going to give it up with out a fight. If deaths plummet look for cases to be front and center.
 
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