Hopefully, Iowa can help with this. Getting rid of Hinson and MMM would be great!:
Democrats are voicing growing confidence about limiting losses in the House and potentially even salvaging their majority in the midterm elections, with candidates and allied groups making moves to capitalize on a backlash to abortion restrictions, signs of improvements in the economy and opposition to Donald Trump.
After months of gloomy predictions, Democrats are investing anew in flipping Republican seats. They are also directing more money to protect a roster of their own endangered incumbents — a list party officials said noticeably shrank since the spring. And they are trying to frame contests around abortion rights, putting Republicans on the defensive for strict opposition to the procedure in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade.
Democratic fundraisers have reported an uptick in donations over the last month, and at least one of the party’s biggest donors is considering pouring more money into House races, according to people with knowledge of the situation.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is privately voicing more confidence about the House landscape and opportunities to go on offense, people familiar with the conversations said, while President Biden’s White House has grown more optimistic in its outlook. One Biden adviser reacted with umbrage at a private meeting with reporters this month to the suggestion that Republicans were likely to win back control of Congress.
GOP prospects narrow in House as Democrats overperform in early contests
While Democrats acknowledge they still face major hurdles, there has been an unmistakable mood shift, according to interviews with candidates, strategists and officials. What was once a party privately bracing for dozens of losses is now one reassessing the House landscape and shifting to a more offensive posture with about 10 weeks left before Election Day.
“I definitely feel a different energy than even three months ago, but certainly six months ago,” said Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) one of the year’s most vulnerable incumbents. Seeing a “narrow” path to keeping the majority, Slotkin added: “Six months ago I think people were putting safe bets on a real blowout. And I don’t see that happening.”
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) delivers her weekly news conference at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Aug. 12, 2022. (Sarah Silbiger for The Washington Post)
One House Democratic strategist, who like others interviewed for this story spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly, was blunter in assessing what it would take to win the 218 seats required to control the House, in a chamber of 435 members. “The range has shifted. The world we were living in before, if we ended up in the 200s that was pretty good,” said the strategist. “Now it is much more that the majority is in play. We have a path. It is there.”
Democrats are defending only a five-seat majority in the House, putting Republicans well within reach of winning back control. Nonpartisan analysts still regard the GOP as the favorites and history shows the president’s party does not tend to do well in a first midterm. Republican strategists pointed to continued opportunities to make gains where Democrats are on defense and questioned whether recent indicators portend much for the fall, particularly if prices rise again on Democrats’ watch.
“Every great team experiences some adversity,” Rep. Tom Emmer (Minn.), the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, wrote in a memo after a special election loss this past week in New York’s 19th Congressional District. Trying to calm Republican nerves, much as Democrats had been doing last year, he added: “This will only make us stronger heading into Election Day.”
Yet several Republican strategists have expressed concern about winning the House with only single-digit margins, which would make it harder for Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to easily ascend to speaker and could complicate the party’s ability to rally for even routine partisan votes. Those same strategists had hoped earlier this year to win a margin of 20 or more on the backs of a soured national mood and rising inflation.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), departs after a dedication and unveiling ceremony of a statue in honor of Amelia Earhart, in Statuary Hall on Capitol Hill in July 2022. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)
In the battle for the Senate, Democrats started seeing signs of encouragement earlier this summer, due to unsteady Republican candidates and other factors that are also starting to show up in House races, party strategists said. Abortion has been a major driver of the improved Democratic outlook, they noted, with the Supreme Court decision in June to strike down the constitutional right to abortion as a key inflection point that angered many voters.
In four special elections for House seats since that decision — including in New York’s 19th District, where the party’s candidate centered his campaign on abortion — Democrats outperformed Biden’s 2020 showing. The resounding defeat of an antiabortion ballot measure in conservative Kansas was more evidence of the galvanizing effect of the court’s decision and subsequent attempts to curtail abortion rights, especially in states where the laws are in limbo. Democrats in recent days have launched ads in several battleground House races attacking Republicans for embracing strict antiabortion stances.
“Showing a fighting spirit is absolutely critical,” said Democrat Pat Ryan, who was victorious in the New York’s 19th District after running heavily on abortion. “A lot of people rallied around just strong, clear, unequivocal positions on issues that in the past, a lot of people would say ‘You should be much more delicate or nuanced.'”
Ryan’s victory came in a district Biden won by under two percentage points — giving Democrats hope of performing well in the 222 seats where Biden did better, party strategists said. But analysts have noted that the recent special elections, including Ryan’s, saw high turnout in hubs for college-educated voters. Ryan tempered the outlook for others. “I don’t know if it’s replicable,” he said of his win.
Democratic candidate Pat Ryan, center, receives acknowledgment during a rally in Kingston, New York, on Aug. 13, 2022. (Cindy Schultz for The Washington Post)
Beyond abortion, Democratic strategists said they have found the reduction of gas prices and the slowing of inflation as helpful to their chances. Democratic strategists said they have come to feel, for the moment, that they can fight Republicans to something of a draw on the economy, in part because Republicans have not put forward any clear policy alternatives.
Party leaders have sought to channel these developments — along with recent legislative accomplishments on health-care and climate change as well as the high-profile House committee hearings about the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by a pro-Trump mob — into a simple argument they are putting before voters: Republicans are extreme and Democrats have delivered.
They are betting that such a platform will break through, particularly in the suburban battleground areas where the fight for control of the House is expected to heavily run through this fall. Such places swung sharply toward Democrats during Trump’s presidency but are seen as ripe targets for Republicans amid economic malaise and dissatisfaction with Biden.
Democrats’ newfound confidence about the overall map is evident in some of the recent spending decisions the party has made.
House Majority PAC, an outside group charged with helping Democrats hold on to the chamber, is investing in three GOP-held seats, according to data from the commercial tracking company AdImpact. The new buys are intended to boost Democratic challengers in California’s 22nd Congressional District, Ohio’s 1st Congressional District and New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District. All are Republican-held seats where Biden won in 2020.
Democrats are voicing growing confidence about limiting losses in the House and potentially even salvaging their majority in the midterm elections, with candidates and allied groups making moves to capitalize on a backlash to abortion restrictions, signs of improvements in the economy and opposition to Donald Trump.
After months of gloomy predictions, Democrats are investing anew in flipping Republican seats. They are also directing more money to protect a roster of their own endangered incumbents — a list party officials said noticeably shrank since the spring. And they are trying to frame contests around abortion rights, putting Republicans on the defensive for strict opposition to the procedure in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade.
Democratic fundraisers have reported an uptick in donations over the last month, and at least one of the party’s biggest donors is considering pouring more money into House races, according to people with knowledge of the situation.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is privately voicing more confidence about the House landscape and opportunities to go on offense, people familiar with the conversations said, while President Biden’s White House has grown more optimistic in its outlook. One Biden adviser reacted with umbrage at a private meeting with reporters this month to the suggestion that Republicans were likely to win back control of Congress.
GOP prospects narrow in House as Democrats overperform in early contests
While Democrats acknowledge they still face major hurdles, there has been an unmistakable mood shift, according to interviews with candidates, strategists and officials. What was once a party privately bracing for dozens of losses is now one reassessing the House landscape and shifting to a more offensive posture with about 10 weeks left before Election Day.
“I definitely feel a different energy than even three months ago, but certainly six months ago,” said Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) one of the year’s most vulnerable incumbents. Seeing a “narrow” path to keeping the majority, Slotkin added: “Six months ago I think people were putting safe bets on a real blowout. And I don’t see that happening.”
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) delivers her weekly news conference at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Aug. 12, 2022. (Sarah Silbiger for The Washington Post)
One House Democratic strategist, who like others interviewed for this story spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly, was blunter in assessing what it would take to win the 218 seats required to control the House, in a chamber of 435 members. “The range has shifted. The world we were living in before, if we ended up in the 200s that was pretty good,” said the strategist. “Now it is much more that the majority is in play. We have a path. It is there.”
Democrats are defending only a five-seat majority in the House, putting Republicans well within reach of winning back control. Nonpartisan analysts still regard the GOP as the favorites and history shows the president’s party does not tend to do well in a first midterm. Republican strategists pointed to continued opportunities to make gains where Democrats are on defense and questioned whether recent indicators portend much for the fall, particularly if prices rise again on Democrats’ watch.
“Every great team experiences some adversity,” Rep. Tom Emmer (Minn.), the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, wrote in a memo after a special election loss this past week in New York’s 19th Congressional District. Trying to calm Republican nerves, much as Democrats had been doing last year, he added: “This will only make us stronger heading into Election Day.”
Yet several Republican strategists have expressed concern about winning the House with only single-digit margins, which would make it harder for Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to easily ascend to speaker and could complicate the party’s ability to rally for even routine partisan votes. Those same strategists had hoped earlier this year to win a margin of 20 or more on the backs of a soured national mood and rising inflation.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), departs after a dedication and unveiling ceremony of a statue in honor of Amelia Earhart, in Statuary Hall on Capitol Hill in July 2022. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)
In the battle for the Senate, Democrats started seeing signs of encouragement earlier this summer, due to unsteady Republican candidates and other factors that are also starting to show up in House races, party strategists said. Abortion has been a major driver of the improved Democratic outlook, they noted, with the Supreme Court decision in June to strike down the constitutional right to abortion as a key inflection point that angered many voters.
In four special elections for House seats since that decision — including in New York’s 19th District, where the party’s candidate centered his campaign on abortion — Democrats outperformed Biden’s 2020 showing. The resounding defeat of an antiabortion ballot measure in conservative Kansas was more evidence of the galvanizing effect of the court’s decision and subsequent attempts to curtail abortion rights, especially in states where the laws are in limbo. Democrats in recent days have launched ads in several battleground House races attacking Republicans for embracing strict antiabortion stances.
“Showing a fighting spirit is absolutely critical,” said Democrat Pat Ryan, who was victorious in the New York’s 19th District after running heavily on abortion. “A lot of people rallied around just strong, clear, unequivocal positions on issues that in the past, a lot of people would say ‘You should be much more delicate or nuanced.'”
Ryan’s victory came in a district Biden won by under two percentage points — giving Democrats hope of performing well in the 222 seats where Biden did better, party strategists said. But analysts have noted that the recent special elections, including Ryan’s, saw high turnout in hubs for college-educated voters. Ryan tempered the outlook for others. “I don’t know if it’s replicable,” he said of his win.
Democratic candidate Pat Ryan, center, receives acknowledgment during a rally in Kingston, New York, on Aug. 13, 2022. (Cindy Schultz for The Washington Post)
Beyond abortion, Democratic strategists said they have found the reduction of gas prices and the slowing of inflation as helpful to their chances. Democratic strategists said they have come to feel, for the moment, that they can fight Republicans to something of a draw on the economy, in part because Republicans have not put forward any clear policy alternatives.
Party leaders have sought to channel these developments — along with recent legislative accomplishments on health-care and climate change as well as the high-profile House committee hearings about the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by a pro-Trump mob — into a simple argument they are putting before voters: Republicans are extreme and Democrats have delivered.
They are betting that such a platform will break through, particularly in the suburban battleground areas where the fight for control of the House is expected to heavily run through this fall. Such places swung sharply toward Democrats during Trump’s presidency but are seen as ripe targets for Republicans amid economic malaise and dissatisfaction with Biden.
Democrats’ newfound confidence about the overall map is evident in some of the recent spending decisions the party has made.
House Majority PAC, an outside group charged with helping Democrats hold on to the chamber, is investing in three GOP-held seats, according to data from the commercial tracking company AdImpact. The new buys are intended to boost Democratic challengers in California’s 22nd Congressional District, Ohio’s 1st Congressional District and New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District. All are Republican-held seats where Biden won in 2020.