One Writers Take on the Defensive Depth Chart for the Upcoming 2018 Season.

[Harbinger273]

Looking forward to seeing who steps in at Weakside backer. We will have serious depth at Safety to go along with some new blood that should impress given the opportunity. Talent at corner, but some of the vets need to step up and take a leadership role with improved performance. DL has been discussed but we need big things from Epenesa, Brinks, Golston and Reiff behind the starters. Lord willing the punting improves with a healthy Gersonde. Need him to stay healthy.

 

[hawktrooper1]

Ugh. I typically like the work of Morehouse, but slideshow the story format is click desperation.

 

[HawkSTL]

Ugh. I typically like the work of Morehouse, but slideshow the story format is click desperation.

Pretty sure Marc doesn’t have control of that. I’m sure that’s the newspaper doing anything it can to generate revenue.

 

[Harbinger273]

Ugh. I typically like the work of Morehouse, but slideshow the story format is click desperation.

And the slideshow is just the pictures from the story. You can scroll down and read the entire story below.

 

[DodgerHawki]

And the slideshow is just the pictures from the story. You can scroll down and read the entire story below.

Exactly. Can read the whole thing, but don't have to look at the pictures.

 

[paladinhawk]

Here’s where it’s finished nationally in total defense since 2008: 12th, 10th, 25th, 60th (2011 was rough), 49th (4-8 team), 6th (the power of pro linebackers), 22nd, 22nd, 23rd and 36th last season.

I hope that they can get back into the top 30 this upcoming season; it will be tough with the inexperience at LB. The offensive needs to take some majors steps forward, and tilt the time of possession a bit more in Iowa's favor

 

[icantfindausernamethatisntused]

Here’s where it’s finished nationally in total defense since 2008: 12th, 10th, 25th, 60th (2011 was rough), 49th (4-8 team), 6th (the power of pro linebackers), 22nd, 22nd, 23rd and 36th last season.

I hope that they can get back into the top 30 this upcoming season; it will be tough with the inexperience at LB. The offensive needs to take some majors steps forward, and tilt the time of possession a bit more in Iowa's favor

Those defensive rankings should also come with a qualifier for SOS. I think last year's defense was every bit as good as the 2014-2016 defenses. While the 2014-2016 defenses ranked higher, the average SOS for those years was 48th in the country while last year's SOS was top 5 in the country. ESPN's FPI ranks defensive efficiency adjusted for SOS and Iowa's defense ranked 22nd last year in defensive efficiency.

Even though there's still talent and depth in the secondary, it's going to be difficult to match last year's passing defense as we ranked 11th in opponent's passing efficiency and led the country in interceptions. However, I think we can make significant progress in our rushing defense which was middle of the road last year. The defensive line should be the strength of our defense next year which hopefully makes the jobs of our new LBs easier.

 

[Harbinger273]

Those defensive rankings should also come with a qualifier for SOS. I think last year's defense was every bit as good as the 2014-2016 defenses. While the 2014-2016 defenses ranked higher, the average SOS for those years was 48th in the country while last year's SOS was top 5 in the country. ESPN's FPI ranks defensive efficiency adjusted for SOS and Iowa's defense ranked 22nd last year in defensive efficiency.

Even though there's still talent and depth in the secondary, it's going to be difficult to match last year's passing defense as we ranked 11th in opponent's passing efficiency and led the country in interceptions. However, I think we can make significant progress in our rushing defense which was middle of the road last year. The defensive line should be the strength of our defense next year which hopefully makes the jobs of our new LBs easier.

Looking at an anticipated ease in schedule this season, and the expected improvement of DL play, I could see our defense having a higher ranking this year. Whether they are actually a better D depends heavily on the ability of the new LB unit to get up to speed and the critical development of the secondary. Hope they have good chemistry to overcome inexperience.

 

[iahawkeyes17]

Looking at an anticipated ease in schedule this season, and the expected improvement of DL play, I could see our defense having a higher ranking this year. Whether they are actually a better D depends heavily on the ability of the new LB unit to get up to speed and the critical development of the secondary. Hope they have good chemistry to overcome inexperience.

Good observation that even though D won't be as talented as last year may have higher ranking due to schedule. Our DL only Bazata will be deep with experience. I think A. Nelson going to have a huge year. LBs I think Jones and the younger Niemann will be very good with Mends injury curious about 3rd spot but unlike 14' I don't think we will see that huge drop off in production when we started a 18 freshman with Spearman and walk on red shirt frosh in Bower. Least we have more depth and experience than 14' season. Secondary we have 3 experienced safeties and interesting to see if Snyder sees the field over Gervase at some point (also not sure if Snyder will be even playing 1st game from OWI if there will be a suspension or not). CBs have 3 with experience. Think Hankins going to be the next good CB who has a future in NFL but hope either Ojemudia or Rugumba one takes the next step and separates himself from the other as a starter. Hopefully Manny just had that sophomore slump and bust out as an upperclassman now.

Scary thing is look at our D next year and setting up for a very experienced D with potentially 9 returning starters. Only guys we lose, unless someone pulls a josh jackson, is Matt Nelson and both FS. But in both those positions we will have 3 DT in 19' with Lattimore, Reiff and Jansen all who'd have been playing for previous 2-3 seasons and at FS Geno Stone who showed during Nebraska game he has a bright future. All that combined with a DE tandem of Epenesa and A. Nelson maybe best DE tandem since Roth and Babinuex.

 

[Johnsoda123]

Good observation that even though D won't be as talented as last year may have higher ranking due to schedule. Our DL only Bazata will be deep with experience. I think A. Nelson going to have a huge year. LBs I think Jones and the younger Niemann will be very good with Mends injury curious about 3rd spot but unlike 14' I don't think we will see that huge drop off in production when we started a 18 freshman with Spearman and walk on red shirt frosh in Bower. Least we have more depth and experience than 14' season. Secondary we have 3 experienced safeties and interesting to see if Snyder sees the field over Gervase at some point (also not sure if Snyder will be even playing 1st game from OWI if there will be a suspension or not). CBs have 3 with experience. Think Hankins going to be the next good CB who has a future in NFL but hope either Ojemudia or Rugumba one takes the next step and separates himself from the other as a starter. Hopefully Manny just had that sophomore slump and bust out as an upperclassman now.

Scary thing is look at our D next year and setting up for a very experienced D with potentially 9 returning starters. Only guys we lose, unless someone pulls a josh jackson, is Matt Nelson and both FS. But in both those positions we will have 3 DT in 19' with Lattimore, Reiff and Jansen all who'd have been playing for previous 2-3 seasons and at FS Geno Stone who showed during Nebraska game he has a bright future. All that combined with a DE tandem of Epenesa and A. Nelson maybe best DE tandem since Roth and Babinuex.

We lose Hesse also (big loss in leadership). We gain Nixon who will compete for snaps. I doubt Linderbaum is in the mix but Shannon might be.

 

[bigfridaynite]

The whole key to the D imo is if Snyder stays healthy.it might be one of Parkers biggest challenge has a D.C.
Iowa lost some big time talent in key positions.

 

[DutchyFunStar]

Am I the only one that thinks Snyder is the ideal fit for the hybrid Leo/Safety they keep teasing?

 

[greenelite]

Am I the only one that thinks Snyder is the ideal fit for the hybrid Leo/Safety they keep teasing?

Nope, I've been saying that for awhile now. Stone would be a good fit as well. Above all else though, Hooker needs to be on the field, whether that be in this position or FS where he should starting. He's definitely an upgrade over Gervase.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Am I the only one that thinks Snyder is the ideal fit for the hybrid Leo/Safety they keep teasing?

Ferentz has mentioned that one of the reasons why they didn't play more with the hybrid OLB/safety spot was because Snyder was injured. If and when they have the depth to train a few guys at the spot ... that is when they will install it. With a healthy Snyder .... the Hawks then have AT LEAST 3 starters at safety ... and with our base-D ... we only have 2 starting spots. That is likely why they're interested in installing the new look ... to match up with where they have personnel who they trust. Furthermore, I think that they're increasingly recognizing that against more pass-oriented teams - some of our DB heavy packages are a little too soft against the run. When we try to be strong against the run with our base 4-3 ... then we're a little too exploitable against the pass. My impression is that attempting to feature the hybrid OLB/safety is an attempt to find a happy medium between defending the run and pass.

 

[iahawkeyes17]

We lose Hesse also (big loss in leadership). We gain Nixon who will compete for snaps. I doubt Linderbaum is in the mix but Shannon might be.

You're right can't believe I forgot Hesse. Fitting since he is under appreciated by a lot of us. Point and case myself being one right here. But I kind of count Epenesa as a starter even though technically he isn't. Hesse I see in the mold like Nate Meier played early in career and was steady and solid but see him better numbers with sacks and tackles for loss and having a great senior year. Nixon sitting out RS could be a blessing in disguise too because come 19' season that's 3 years post HS with a full season of Doyle and stagger the classes so Jansen, Reiff and him won't all be seniors in same class. But with the depth we can red shirt Linderbaum and Shannon unlike Lattimore where we were lacking depth his freshman year when he didn't.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

You're right can't believe I forgot Hesse. Fitting since he is under appreciated by a lot of us. Point and case myself being one right here. But I kind of count Epenesa as a starter even though technically he isn't. Hesse I see in the mold like Nate Meier played early in career and was steady and solid but see him better numbers with sacks and tackles for loss and having a great senior year. Nixon sitting out RS could be a blessing in disguise too because come 19' season that's 3 years post HS with a full season of Doyle and stagger the classes so Jansen, Reiff and him won't all be seniors in same class. But with the depth we can red shirt Linderbaum and Shannon unlike Lattimore where we were lacking depth his freshman year when he didn't.

The most interesting thing will be to see where the leaders emerge from the 2019 DL. I assume that Anthony will return ... although Morehouse seems to think that he'll probably have a decision to make after the '18 season. I think that he'll be one of our leaders. Epenesa will be poised to be a strong starter for us - opposite Nelson. Then, at DT, we'll have a nice complement of guys to fortify the interior ... Lattimore, Reiff, Nixon, and Jansen. Also, by '19, maybe Shannon will surpass Jansen to land on the DT rotation?

 

[Rocket98]

DL will be elite if our DT's continue to grow. LB will have some growing pains. Potential there of a safety and a 1st year player getting some time there. 3 corners that are solid, but no !ll B1G type player. A healthy Snyder and Hooker could be the best tandem in the conference. Gervase may give Niemann all he can handle at LEO.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

DL will be elite if our DT's continue to grow. LB will have some growing pains. Potential there of a safety and a 1st year player getting some time there. 3 corners that are solid, but no !ll B1G type player. A healthy Snyder and Hooker could be the best tandem in the conference. Gervase may give Niemann all he can handle at LEO.

Iowa's LEO tends to have a lot on his plate. Maybe Phil will use our safety depth to help out Niemann's development. I have no doubt that in time, he'll end up being an excellent LB for us. However, Rome wasn't built in a day either ...

As a back-up DE in '15, Matt Nelson got his feet wet. When he was a rotating starter in '16, he was pretty darn productive. However, Anthony's level of play demanded that he'd continue to get more snaps ... and Hesse and Epenesa were other DEs too! Consequently, we saw Matt then get his feet wet playing DT in '17. By the end of the season, it really appeared as though he had learned a lot ... and his level of play as really ramping up. I anticipate that a healthy Matt Nelson will supply us with A LOT of high quality snaps in '18.

Then look at Lattimore and Reiff ... both guys improved a lot too. Lattimore attempted to "anchor" things a little more ... whereas, Reiff relied a bit more on his quickness and his motor to make plays and be disruptive. By the end of the season, both guys were playing far better than they had earlier on. I look for both guys to continue to make strides. Everything I've heard suggests that Lattimore is quite an explosive guy and has a great first step ... so as he continues to learn how to play faster ... I think we'll see his productivity ramp up too. As for Brady, given the intangibles that we know that both he and his brother possess ... I'm excited to see how he will continue to improve too.

One of the great unknowns is Jansen ... there must be something about him ... because he was at least earning some reps within our NASCAR pass-rushing package. He's reputed to have really good quickness for an interior guy. Also, he's right at around 280 and he's on the shorter side ... so he can supply good leverage if he plays with good technique.

While I know that many fans lament Iowa's seeming "lack of beef" on the interior ... however, those same fans need to recognize that from 2003 to 2008 the Hawks enjoyed some of their very best defenses ... and we didn't have a single 300 pounder on the interior for the duration. It wasn't until Ballard shifted to the interior in '09 that we had a 300 pounder at DT. However, even then, it didn't last long ... because he played a lot at DE back in 2010 (because Mike Daniels was one of the lead starters at DT in '10).

One of our only sustained periods of having beefier guys at DT was from '13-'16. During that duration, the production of our D hasn't matched what it was with our smaller and quicker DTs. I'll be curious to see how things play out in the future for us ....

 

[DodgerHawki]

Good observation that even though D won't be as talented as last year may have higher ranking due to schedule. Our DL only Bazata will be deep with experience. I think A. Nelson going to have a huge year. LBs I think Jones and the younger Niemann will be very good with Mends injury curious about 3rd spot but unlike 14' I don't think we will see that huge drop off in production when we started a 18 freshman with Spearman and walk on red shirt frosh in Bower. Least we have more depth and experience than 14' season. Secondary we have 3 experienced safeties and interesting to see if Snyder sees the field over Gervase at some point (also not sure if Snyder will be even playing 1st game from OWI if there will be a suspension or not). CBs have 3 with experience. Think Hankins going to be the next good CB who has a future in NFL but hope either Ojemudia or Rugumba one takes the next step and separates himself from the other as a starter. Hopefully Manny just had that sophomore slump and bust out as an upperclassman now.

Scary thing is look at our D next year and setting up for a very experienced D with potentially 9 returning starters. Only guys we lose, unless someone pulls a josh jackson, is Matt Nelson and both FS. But in both those positions we will have 3 DT in 19' with Lattimore, Reiff and Jansen all who'd have been playing for previous 2-3 seasons and at FS Geno Stone who showed during Nebraska game he has a bright future. All that combined with a DE tandem of Epenesa and A. Nelson maybe best DE tandem since Roth and Babinuex.

The S&P+ ratings from Football Outsiders look at defensive efficiency and weight for schedule. Those had Iowa at 15 in 2017 for defense. Also 15 in 2016 and 33 in 2015.

As to how the defense performs. My own opinion is that it will be good with chance to be really good if injuries don't happen to certain players. I don't see other safeties who can do what Hooker can do. Or if Iowa were to lose Anthony Nelson, I don't see other guys on the line who can do what he can do. It may take a few games to sort out the secondary, but the collective group of athletes at Parker's disposal (Hankins, Rugamba, Ojemudia, all the safeties plus the freshmen and those who redshirted) I can't see how the secondary isn't good at a minimum the last half of the season.

 

[greenelite]

The S&P+ ratings from Football Outsiders look at defensive efficiency and weight for schedule. Those had Iowa at 15 in 2017 for defense. Also 15 in 2016 and 33 in 2015.

As to how the defense performs. My own opinion is that it will be good with chance to be really good if injuries don't happen to certain players. I don't see other safeties who can do what Hooker can do. Or if Iowa were to lose Anthony Nelson, I don't see other guys on the line who can do what he can do. It may take a few games to sort out the secondary, but the collective group of athletes at Parker's disposal (Hankins, Rugamba, Ojemudia, all the safeties plus the freshmen and those who redshirted) I can't see how the secondary isn't good at a minimum the last half of the season.

Anthony Nelson does not have more DE talent of AJ Epenesa IMO. He may be more physically developed at this point, but AJE is a true beast at the position. Nelson is no slam dunk to be productive in the NFL, but AJE is damn near a no-brainer (and he isn't even starting in the 2-deeps). Not saying we can afford to lose him, but losing an Easley or a T would hurt much more considering we'd have Hesse and Co. picking up the slack.

 

[wcbtee]

Anthony is pretty damn skilled and I think he is the better player in ‘18, but AJ May have the most raw talent we have seen in the last 20 yrs, I can’t wait to see how he develops he has tremendous potential.

 

[Harbinger273]

Alot of unknowns with the D outside of DL I think. We have come to expect a more than serviceable secondary with the guys we are bringing in and the expert coaching of Phil Parker. LB will experience growing pains and it will show at times. Hope there are some guys who can play beyond their years. Anthony Nelson has a knack for making a big play when it is needed or at the end of the game and that can't be taught. Epenesa has potential, but needs to prove more consistent and just continue to develop in the college game. Clayborn had alot of raw talent and I hope AJ can do some of the same things he did.

 

[Johnsoda123]

Alot of unknowns with the D outside of DL I think. We have come to expect a more than serviceable secondary with the guys we are bringing in and the expert coaching of Phil Parker. LB will experience growing pains and it will show at times. Hope there are some guys who can play beyond their years. Anthony Nelson has a knack for making a big play when it is needed or at the end of the game and that can't be taught. Epenesa has potential, but needs to prove more consistent and just continue to develop in the college game. Clayborn had alot of raw talent and I hope AJ can do some of the same things he did.

Of all the 5 stars that played in 2017, 247 had AJ at a 77.1 grade, which was near the top. He might of had the most snaps of any 5 star except for one RB. I think he is on schedule.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Alot of unknowns with the D outside of DL I think. We have come to expect a more than serviceable secondary with the guys we are bringing in and the expert coaching of Phil Parker. LB will experience growing pains and it will show at times. Hope there are some guys who can play beyond their years. Anthony Nelson has a knack for making a big play when it is needed or at the end of the game and that can't be taught. Epenesa has potential, but needs to prove more consistent and just continue to develop in the college game. Clayborn had alot of raw talent and I hope AJ can do some of the same things he did.

As a RS FR in 2007, Clayborn had the following stat-line: (Iwebema was dinged through the season too - probably re-aggravated his shoulder - so Clayborn saw A LOT of quality snaps)
20 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 2 sacks, 1 pass deflection, 2 QB hurries, 1 forced fumble

As a TR FR in 2007, Ballard (another 4-star talent) had the following stat-line:
15 tackles, 4 TFLs, 2.5 sacks, 0 pass deflections, 0 QB hurries, 0 forced fumbles

As a TR FR in 2001, Roth (a 4 or 5-star talent) had the following stat-line:
19 tackles, 1 TFL, 0 sacks, 1 pass deflection, 0 QB hurries, 0 forced fumbles

As a TR FR in 2017, Epenesa (a 5-star talent) had the following stat-line:
15 tackles, 5.5 TFLs, 4.5 sackes, 1 pass deflection, 8 QB hurries, 1 forced fumble

In terms of "disruption numbers" as Marc Morehouse would call them, particularly against the pass, Epenesa had the biggest impact as a FR ... and it doesn't even appear close. The 8 QB hurries is especially a telling stat.

What's particularly cool is considering what Roth's numbers were in 2002 ... when he was a true SO. By then, he had acclimated to playing DE ... but he still wasn't yet a starter. Obviously, given his production ... he was clearly seeing a lot of reps!

As a TR SO in 2002, Roth had the following stat-line:
48 tackles, 11 TFLs, 10 sacks, 0 pass deflections, 11 QB hurries, 1 forced fumble

I wonder if this points to the advantage of NOT having Epenesa worry about all the responsibilities of an every-down starter. Early on, Roth was essentially a point-and-shoot weapon. He'd either make a big play, make a big penalty, or the play would just go away from him. it is worth annotating the data and noting that the Hawks didn't quite face the same diversity of offenses in '01 and '02 as they've seen subsequently (with the greater proliferation of spread-type Os).

In contrast, as every down starters in '08, Clayborn and Ballard didn't quite have the same big uptick in disruption numbers.

As a RS SO in 2008, Clayborn had the following stat-line:
50 tackles, 8 TFLs, 2 sacks, 3 pass deflections, 2 QB hurries, 1 forced fumble

As a TR SO in 2008, Ballard had the following stat-line:
40 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, 1 pass deflection, 5 QB hurries, 1 forced fumble

AJ Epenesa now has a season of reps under his belt and he's been learning how to play at either DE spot. That should be able to allow the coaches to up the number of snaps that he sees. Thus, we'll likely see more of a 3-man rotation at DE as opposed to a 4-man rotation ... because if Epenesa has the conditioning to see the reps ... they'll likely want him to see as many as he can handle.

 

[greenelite]

Gotdamn, Homer. You're a Hawkeye encyclopedia.

 

[TKingpin]

I really like the comparisons as True Freshmen of AJE vs those other pass-rushing Hawkeye legends.

How awesome would it be to see him get Matt Roth-like numbers this year from the RDE and ANelson get the same from the other side.

 

[Harbinger273]

I really like the comparisons as True Freshmen of AJE vs those other pass-rushing Hawkeye legends.

How awesome would it be to see him get Matt Roth-like numbers this year from the RDE and ANelson get the same from the other side.

Yes. AJ is well on his way to making a strong contribution as a Hawk. I'd love to see him put up 3 yuge seasons. And see others have big years. Could be real fun next couple of years.

 

[Roy-munson]

As a RS FR in 2007, Clayborn had the following stat-line: (Iwebema was dinged through the season too - probably re-aggravated his shoulder - so Clayborn saw A LOT of quality snaps)
20 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 2 sacks, 1 pass deflection, 2 QB hurries, 1 forced fumble

As a TR FR in 2007, Ballard (another 4-star talent) had the following stat-line:
15 tackles, 4 TFLs, 2.5 sacks, 0 pass deflections, 0 QB hurries, 0 forced fumbles

As a TR FR in 2001, Roth (a 4 or 5-star talent) had the following stat-line:
19 tackles, 1 TFL, 0 sacks, 1 pass deflection, 0 QB hurries, 0 forced fumbles

As a TR FR in 2017, Epenesa (a 5-star talent) had the following stat-line:
15 tackles, 5.5 TFLs, 4.5 sackes, 1 pass deflection, 8 QB hurries, 1 forced fumble

In terms of "disruption numbers" as Marc Morehouse would call them, particularly against the pass, Epenesa had the biggest impact as a FR ... and it doesn't even appear close. The 8 QB hurries is especially a telling stat.

What's particularly cool is considering what Roth's numbers were in 2002 ... when he was a true SO. By then, he had acclimated to playing DE ... but he still wasn't yet a starter. Obviously, given his production ... he was clearly seeing a lot of reps!

As a TR SO in 2002, Roth had the following stat-line:
48 tackles, 11 TFLs, 10 sacks, 0 pass deflections, 11 QB hurries, 1 forced fumble

I wonder if this points to the advantage of NOT having Epenesa worry about all the responsibilities of an every-down starter. Early on, Roth was essentially a point-and-shoot weapon. He'd either make a big play, make a big penalty, or the play would just go away from him. it is worth annotating the data and noting that the Hawks didn't quite face the same diversity of offenses in '01 and '02 as they've seen subsequently (with the greater proliferation of spread-type Os).

In contrast, as every down starters in '08, Clayborn and Ballard didn't quite have the same big uptick in disruption numbers.

As a RS SO in 2008, Clayborn had the following stat-line:
50 tackles, 8 TFLs, 2 sacks, 3 pass deflections, 2 QB hurries, 1 forced fumble

As a TR SO in 2008, Ballard had the following stat-line:
40 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, 1 pass deflection, 5 QB hurries, 1 forced fumble

AJ Epenesa now has a season of reps under his belt and he's been learning how to play at either DE spot. That should be able to allow the coaches to up the number of snaps that he sees. Thus, we'll likely see more of a 3-man rotation at DE as opposed to a 4-man rotation ... because if Epenesa has the conditioning to see the reps ... they'll likely want him to see as many as he can handle.

What was Jared devries stat line as a freshman?? I know Jared is a rarity but the amount of defenseive talent Iowa has had is just insane to think about.

 

[Harbinger273]

What was Jared devries stat line as a freshman?? I know Jared is a rarity but the amount of defenseive talent Iowa has had is just insane to think about.

Not sure on DeVries, but I know Kampman Had some fairly bonkers stats at Iowa. Indeed we have had some impressive Defensive talent here.

 

[Roy-munson]

Not sure on DeVries, but I know Kampman Had some fairly bonkers stats at Iowa. Indeed we have had some impressive Defensive talent here.

As a freshman 12 sacks 19 tfl

 

[Harbinger273]

As a freshman 12 sacks 19 tfl

Kampman or Devries?

 

[Roy-munson]

Kampman or Devries?

Devries. Dude was absolute monster as a freshman sophomore junior and senior..