Opening line: Iowa 9.5 pt dog
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After watching Gonzaga for just the first time last night I'm clearly no expert. But the thing that struck me is that they make .524 of their shot attempts, including .405 from the three!
KenPom loves them as the 7th best team in the country. 6th offensively and 41st on defense.
Since size, and so much more is similar, I almost see them as a better (on most days) version of us!
But, they didn't play the schedule we played. And hopefully that means their stats are exaggerated.
Easy money given 9.5? I'd bet on Iowa.
I think this game really comes down to if it is allowed to be a slug fest or not. It is getting to be repetitive, but once again, Iowa plays basketball very well but if a hockey game breaks out we're in trouble.
KenPom loves them as the 7th best team in the country. 6th offensively and 41st on defense.
Since size, and so much more is similar, I almost see them as a better (on most days) version of us!
But, they didn't play the schedule we played. And hopefully that means their stats are exaggerated.
Easy money given 9.5? I'd bet on Iowa.
I think this game really comes down to if it is allowed to be a slug fest or not. It is getting to be repetitive, but once again, Iowa plays basketball very well but if a hockey game breaks out we're in trouble.
td77 posted on 3/21/2015...
It actually opened at 5 and currently stands as -6
*This is more accurate. Danny Sheridan (not that I think he is Sam Rothsteen) has it at 5.5.
It actually opened at 5 and currently stands as -6
*This is more accurate. Danny Sheridan (not that I think he is Sam Rothsteen) has it at 5.5.
Put it on the bulletin board. That's a big time dog. I gotta believe this game is coming down to the last possession
I'm not taking anything away from Gonzaga, but their schedule was seriously soft. I looked at their results on ESPN and they only beat one team that was ranked (#22 SMU) and lost to #3 Arizona in OT on the road. It's hard to glean much from the rest of their schedule as BYU was their only other loss. Pepperdine pushed them a couple of times in single digit losses. The only time I watched them play I was very impressed with their bigs and thought that they would give Iowa serious trouble if they ever matched up. Well, guess what?
Iowa can cause match-up issues of their own. I think the biggest factor in this game is Iowa not being, or getting intimidated, by Gonzaga. If Iowa can force Gonzaga to play their game in transition, then I see no reason that the Hawks can't move on. Look at it this way: If Davidson had played Gonzaga's schedule, would you see any reason that they wouldn't have still advanced to the NCAA's?
Iowa can cause match-up issues of their own. I think the biggest factor in this game is Iowa not being, or getting intimidated, by Gonzaga. If Iowa can force Gonzaga to play their game in transition, then I see no reason that the Hawks can't move on. Look at it this way: If Davidson had played Gonzaga's schedule, would you see any reason that they wouldn't have still advanced to the NCAA's?
Too high.
Hawks are going to have to duplicate last night to have any chance against the Zags.
They are bigger and can shoot.
Posted from Rivals Mobile
Hawks are going to have to duplicate last night to have any chance against the Zags.
They are bigger and can shoot.
Posted from Rivals Mobile
Gonzaga / Seattle. This will feel like a road game. Advantage Hawks (.....or more accurately, "home court" advantage neutralized).
Hawkeyes have been road warriors this year.(+)
Iowa slayed the feared neutral court dragon last night (+)
and simultaneously buried the 14 year NCAA tourney win draught (+)
They should be loose and energized. Peter Jok is heating up again. Mike Gesell is playing semi-possessed. Gabe could be a match-up problem.
I believe the spread reflects the odds makers belief that this is a Gonzaga home court. I don't think it will have any effect.
Turnovers and Free Throws will should decide the outcome.
Hawkeyes have been road warriors this year.(+)
Iowa slayed the feared neutral court dragon last night (+)
and simultaneously buried the 14 year NCAA tourney win draught (+)
They should be loose and energized. Peter Jok is heating up again. Mike Gesell is playing semi-possessed. Gabe could be a match-up problem.
I believe the spread reflects the odds makers belief that this is a Gonzaga home court. I don't think it will have any effect.
Turnovers and Free Throws will should decide the outcome.
I don't care about betting lines but will make this observation. Last night the Zags beat NDSt by 10 points. We beat the same team by 31 back in November. This doesn't indicate any overwhelming edge for the Hawks, but it does show us that we can be competitive against the same teams as they are. Plus, I definitely believe that we have played much tougher opposition all year long and Gonzaga won't intimidate us in the least.
I am in the office on a Saturday trying to get some work done, but clearly not succeeding at that. A couple of observations:
(1) When you look at the starting lineups, the clearest mismatch either way is Jared Uthoff. Gonzaga starts a 3 guard lineup with 6'4 205lb Byron Wesley as the 3rd guard. Every other matchup is pretty similar, height-wise. They could theoretically go big against us with Karnowski, Sabonis, and Wiltjer in at the same time. But generally they seem to play Sabonis as the primary sub for both Karnowski and Wiltjer.
(2) While we might rag on their SOS, they played Arizona, Georgia, SMU, St. John's, and UCLA as non-conference opponents. Of those NCAA tournament teams, they lost only to Arizona, by 3, in overtime at Arizona. In conference, they split with BYU.
Gonzaga did what they needed to do out of conference in order to get respect for their schedule. They were 6-2 against RPI top 50, Iowa was 4-6. The difference is that Iowa was 2-5 against RPI top 25, while Gonzaga was 1-1. Gonzaga was 9-2 against the RPI top 100, while Iowa was 9-9. So Iowa played 7 more RPI top 100 opponents, and played 5 more RPI top 25 opponents.
Clearly, a lot of that is conference related. Other than BYU, the only conference opponent they faced with an RPI better than 100 was St. Mary's at 69.
(3) Looking at box scores in the games against NCAA tournament teams demonstrates why they have lost only twice this season. They have six legitimate threats to score in double figures in any game. It is hard to shut them all down.
(4) I think that depth is a factor that slightly favors Iowa. Gonzaga plays 8 players more than 10 minutes per game. I have not tried to figure out how much of that is affected by garbage time at the end of games, since Gonzaga on average outscored its opponents by 17 points per game. While Gonzaga played 9 players against NDSU, one of them logged only 2 minutes, and another logged 9 minutes. Pangos played the entire game, and Wiltjer and Bell both logged more than 30 minutes.
Iowa plays 9 players more than 10 minutes per game. White was the only player, at 35 minutes, who played more than 30 minutes for Iowa against Davidson.
(5) I am not going to try to make a prediction. Iowa can win if they shoot reasonably well. The matchup of Wiltjer vs. White will get a lot of attention, and I think that White has to win that matchup for Iowa to win. But I think that for Iowa to win, it will come down to Uthoff/Jok making enough shots on the perimeter to open things up inside.
(6) We have few common opponents. Collectively, those common opponents (Pepperdine and NDSU) were swept. Iowa beat Pepperdine 72-61. Gonzaga beat them 78-76, 56-48, and 79-61 (with the last in the conference tournament). Iowa beat NDSU 87-56. Gonzaga beat them 86-76.
(1) When you look at the starting lineups, the clearest mismatch either way is Jared Uthoff. Gonzaga starts a 3 guard lineup with 6'4 205lb Byron Wesley as the 3rd guard. Every other matchup is pretty similar, height-wise. They could theoretically go big against us with Karnowski, Sabonis, and Wiltjer in at the same time. But generally they seem to play Sabonis as the primary sub for both Karnowski and Wiltjer.
(2) While we might rag on their SOS, they played Arizona, Georgia, SMU, St. John's, and UCLA as non-conference opponents. Of those NCAA tournament teams, they lost only to Arizona, by 3, in overtime at Arizona. In conference, they split with BYU.
Gonzaga did what they needed to do out of conference in order to get respect for their schedule. They were 6-2 against RPI top 50, Iowa was 4-6. The difference is that Iowa was 2-5 against RPI top 25, while Gonzaga was 1-1. Gonzaga was 9-2 against the RPI top 100, while Iowa was 9-9. So Iowa played 7 more RPI top 100 opponents, and played 5 more RPI top 25 opponents.
Clearly, a lot of that is conference related. Other than BYU, the only conference opponent they faced with an RPI better than 100 was St. Mary's at 69.
(3) Looking at box scores in the games against NCAA tournament teams demonstrates why they have lost only twice this season. They have six legitimate threats to score in double figures in any game. It is hard to shut them all down.
(4) I think that depth is a factor that slightly favors Iowa. Gonzaga plays 8 players more than 10 minutes per game. I have not tried to figure out how much of that is affected by garbage time at the end of games, since Gonzaga on average outscored its opponents by 17 points per game. While Gonzaga played 9 players against NDSU, one of them logged only 2 minutes, and another logged 9 minutes. Pangos played the entire game, and Wiltjer and Bell both logged more than 30 minutes.
Iowa plays 9 players more than 10 minutes per game. White was the only player, at 35 minutes, who played more than 30 minutes for Iowa against Davidson.
(5) I am not going to try to make a prediction. Iowa can win if they shoot reasonably well. The matchup of Wiltjer vs. White will get a lot of attention, and I think that White has to win that matchup for Iowa to win. But I think that for Iowa to win, it will come down to Uthoff/Jok making enough shots on the perimeter to open things up inside.
(6) We have few common opponents. Collectively, those common opponents (Pepperdine and NDSU) were swept. Iowa beat Pepperdine 72-61. Gonzaga beat them 78-76, 56-48, and 79-61 (with the last in the conference tournament). Iowa beat NDSU 87-56. Gonzaga beat them 86-76.
^^^^ tremendous post, backed by stats, objective analysis, and rationale.
Has all the match-ups and makings of a great game.
Hope for a hard-fought, injury free contest.
Either team can win, I'd say based purely on results and stats, its a TOSS up.
Luck, rebound, clutch shots will determine the winner.
Has all the match-ups and makings of a great game.
Hope for a hard-fought, injury free contest.
Either team can win, I'd say based purely on results and stats, its a TOSS up.
Luck, rebound, clutch shots will determine the winner.
I haven't watched Gonzaga play and would think their players would be happier playing better teams in their conference. Probably how they can get ranked so high in a less than stellar conference is in their 18 conference and conference tournament games they averaged winning those 21 games by an average of more than 15 points a game which is considered a blow out for even one game at that point differential. All the players on the Gonzaga team except for point guard Pangos played less than 28 minutes per game all season or they probably could have won games by a lot higher scoring margin.
Sabonis who comes off the bench and shoots 68% shooting on the season is the freshman son of 7 3" Arvydas Sabonis who I used to love watching play for the Portland Trail Blazers.
Wiltjer who sat out last season after transferring from Kentucky is one of five finalists for the Naismith Karl Malone award for the best NCAA power forward, the other four being Perry Ellis (Kansas), Montrezl Harrell (Louisville), David Laury (Iona) and Georges Niang (Iowa State).
The first link goes to the Gonzaga schedule and the second one to their player stats. Gonzaga has the #1 shooting percentage in the nation yet still ranks 30th in the nation in rebounds.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/2250/gonzaga-bulldogs
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/2250/gonzaga-bulldogs
This post was edited on 3/21 11:24 AM by Myvue
This post was edited on 3/21 11:28 AM by Myvue
Sabonis who comes off the bench and shoots 68% shooting on the season is the freshman son of 7 3" Arvydas Sabonis who I used to love watching play for the Portland Trail Blazers.
Wiltjer who sat out last season after transferring from Kentucky is one of five finalists for the Naismith Karl Malone award for the best NCAA power forward, the other four being Perry Ellis (Kansas), Montrezl Harrell (Louisville), David Laury (Iona) and Georges Niang (Iowa State).
The first link goes to the Gonzaga schedule and the second one to their player stats. Gonzaga has the #1 shooting percentage in the nation yet still ranks 30th in the nation in rebounds.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/2250/gonzaga-bulldogs
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/2250/gonzaga-bulldogs
This post was edited on 3/21 11:24 AM by Myvue
This post was edited on 3/21 11:28 AM by Myvue
Something interesting I noticed was even though the spread went from -5 to -6, the money line went from Iowa +240 to Iowa +220. Tells me the public is betting the zags, but the smart money is taking Iowa to win.
Iowa was a 2-point favorite over the nation's greatest 3-point shooting team, Davidson. The game played out slightly differently.
If all the "experts" really were "experts," there'd be no need to play the games.
If all the "experts" really were "experts," there'd be no need to play the games.
I kind of expected it to be 6. That seems reasonable and we can certainly cover that. I have a feeling this will be yet another game decided in the final few minutes....as long as we can shoot decent enough and they don't go off for a higher than usual percentage, which is always possible because BAU...
Watched quite a few games of theirs this year. It seemed like every game I watched the last few weeks, they were usually down by 6+ at the half. By the first TV timeout, they usually had the lead back. I think it'll come down to how close things are at half and if we can stop them having a surge right out of the half.
watched a little bit of their game their big is heavier than Woodbury but did not look to be all that quick, IA also has 6-7 players that can score in DBL figures.
Jok was assigned to guard Davidson's leading scorer and their leading score had foul trouble because of that. Jok's defense is getting better with every game, Uthoff can present a matchup problem if he can be more consistent with his jumper. Gonzaga offers a better matchup than Davidson did,
are the Zags as good as Wisconsin? in my opinion No, they look more like Purdue and they had the advantage over IA with White out.
Jok was assigned to guard Davidson's leading scorer and their leading score had foul trouble because of that. Jok's defense is getting better with every game, Uthoff can present a matchup problem if he can be more consistent with his jumper. Gonzaga offers a better matchup than Davidson did,
are the Zags as good as Wisconsin? in my opinion No, they look more like Purdue and they had the advantage over IA with White out.
Gonzaga plays in a conference with two other teams that even have a pulse. How can you be considered great when you haven't played much less beat a team that fits that description? ESPN's love affair with a team that always gets over seeded and bounced in the second round is puzzling.
Well, then, here's Gonzaga's opportunity, just like Iowa's as well.
Works both ways, as I've been saying. Conference affiliation means nothing right now. Only the final 32 in NCAA Tourney and head-to-head results count.
Besides, it wasn't Gonzaga's fault that Memphis, UCLA, Georgia, St. Johns, SMU, BYU, et al weren't Top-10 teams. We did clash with one Top-5 team in fared OK, an OT loss in Tuscon Arizona by 3.
Also, we won the rest of those games, and BYU (another Tournament team) got us 1 of 3 times.
Within the frame of things, GU did OK. Next year's schedule is INSANE.
Works both ways, as I've been saying. Conference affiliation means nothing right now. Only the final 32 in NCAA Tourney and head-to-head results count.
Besides, it wasn't Gonzaga's fault that Memphis, UCLA, Georgia, St. Johns, SMU, BYU, et al weren't Top-10 teams. We did clash with one Top-5 team in fared OK, an OT loss in Tuscon Arizona by 3.
Also, we won the rest of those games, and BYU (another Tournament team) got us 1 of 3 times.
Within the frame of things, GU did OK. Next year's schedule is INSANE.
I have absolutely no issues with Gonzaga and think you have a very good program. I just haven't seen anything that leads me to believe you will wipe the floor with us. We'll see tomorrow...
