By Greg Sargent
Columnist |
September 6, 2022 at 12:03 p.m. EDT
With the midterm elections hurtling into their final stretch, a group of Never Trumpers is pumping millions of dollars into ads aimed at defeating Republican candidates aligned with Donald Trump and his lies about the 2020 election.
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At the core of this effort is a big question: Can Trump’s continued domination of the news cycle, and the intensifying revelations about his lawlessness, alienate a small but meaningful enough fraction of GOP-leaning voters to affect the outcome?
The Republican Accountability Project, which is chaired by Never Trumper and conservative movement veteran Bill Kristol, is betting that it’s possible. A PAC linked to the group is spending money to try to defeat more than a dozen of the Trumpiest GOP candidates, those who support the “big lie” such as Doug Mastriano and Kari Lake, who are running for governor in Pennsylvania and Arizona.
The group’s ads highlight ongoing revelations about Trump’s effort to overthrow our constitutional order, culminating in the violence of Jan. 6, 2021. And the stunning disclosures about Trump’s hoarding of state secrets have made his lawlessness even more central.
I reached out to Kristol — who has been a fixture in the elite conservative and neoconservative establishments for decades — to discuss his group’s efforts, the future of the GOP, and the true nature of Never Trumpism. An edited and condensed version of our exchanges follows.
Greg Sargent: The fundamental premise of your efforts is that a percentage of Republican and GOP-leaning independent voters can in fact be peeled away from supporting GOP candidates, yes? How big is that percentage? Can they be induced to vote for Democratic candidates?
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Bill Kristol: We’ve always thought the percentage is 3 percent, 5 percent, something like that. Peeling away 5 percent of Republican voters to stay home, or better, vote against a Trumpy election denier — that seems doable. It seems consistent with the polling and the 2020 results.
Sargent: What do you say to these voters about candidates like Doug Mastriano or Kari Lake?
Kristol: A lot of what we do is simply publicize what they say. Convey the extremism of MAGA Republicans — and therefore the extremism of the Republican Party.
Sargent: The underlying principle here seems to be that Republican voters alienated by the MAGA takeover of the GOP should be willing to ally with Democrats, even if only temporarily.
Kristol: Correct.
Sargent: So let’s talk about the future of Never Trumpism. Let’s say Florida Governor Ron DeSantis becomes the Republican presidential nominee in 2024. Are you guys going to urge the GOP voters you’re targeting to vote instead for, say, Joe Biden?
Kristol: I certainly would. I don’t want to speak for the whole organization. But yes. Trump himself departing the scene by no means guarantees the de-Trumpification of the Republican Party.
If that happens more quickly than you and I think, and it’s Glenn Youngkin, not Ron DeSantis, and if Glenn Youngkin turns out not to be the Glenn Youngkin who pandered to all these people in 2021, and is a semi-responsible Republican, that’s a different story.
I personally have enough problems with the Republican Party having gone along with Trump — and I suppose I’ve done enough rethinking of some conservative dogmas — that I myself am unlikely to be returning to the Republican fold anytime soon.
The fact is, I have not voted for a Republican since Trump became president.
Columnist |
September 6, 2022 at 12:03 p.m. EDT
With the midterm elections hurtling into their final stretch, a group of Never Trumpers is pumping millions of dollars into ads aimed at defeating Republican candidates aligned with Donald Trump and his lies about the 2020 election.
Sign up for a weekly roundup of thought-provoking ideas and debates
At the core of this effort is a big question: Can Trump’s continued domination of the news cycle, and the intensifying revelations about his lawlessness, alienate a small but meaningful enough fraction of GOP-leaning voters to affect the outcome?
The Republican Accountability Project, which is chaired by Never Trumper and conservative movement veteran Bill Kristol, is betting that it’s possible. A PAC linked to the group is spending money to try to defeat more than a dozen of the Trumpiest GOP candidates, those who support the “big lie” such as Doug Mastriano and Kari Lake, who are running for governor in Pennsylvania and Arizona.
The group’s ads highlight ongoing revelations about Trump’s effort to overthrow our constitutional order, culminating in the violence of Jan. 6, 2021. And the stunning disclosures about Trump’s hoarding of state secrets have made his lawlessness even more central.
I reached out to Kristol — who has been a fixture in the elite conservative and neoconservative establishments for decades — to discuss his group’s efforts, the future of the GOP, and the true nature of Never Trumpism. An edited and condensed version of our exchanges follows.
Greg Sargent: The fundamental premise of your efforts is that a percentage of Republican and GOP-leaning independent voters can in fact be peeled away from supporting GOP candidates, yes? How big is that percentage? Can they be induced to vote for Democratic candidates?
ADVERTISING
Bill Kristol: We’ve always thought the percentage is 3 percent, 5 percent, something like that. Peeling away 5 percent of Republican voters to stay home, or better, vote against a Trumpy election denier — that seems doable. It seems consistent with the polling and the 2020 results.
Sargent: What do you say to these voters about candidates like Doug Mastriano or Kari Lake?
Kristol: A lot of what we do is simply publicize what they say. Convey the extremism of MAGA Republicans — and therefore the extremism of the Republican Party.
Sargent: The underlying principle here seems to be that Republican voters alienated by the MAGA takeover of the GOP should be willing to ally with Democrats, even if only temporarily.
Kristol: Correct.
Sargent: So let’s talk about the future of Never Trumpism. Let’s say Florida Governor Ron DeSantis becomes the Republican presidential nominee in 2024. Are you guys going to urge the GOP voters you’re targeting to vote instead for, say, Joe Biden?
Kristol: I certainly would. I don’t want to speak for the whole organization. But yes. Trump himself departing the scene by no means guarantees the de-Trumpification of the Republican Party.
If that happens more quickly than you and I think, and it’s Glenn Youngkin, not Ron DeSantis, and if Glenn Youngkin turns out not to be the Glenn Youngkin who pandered to all these people in 2021, and is a semi-responsible Republican, that’s a different story.
I personally have enough problems with the Republican Party having gone along with Trump — and I suppose I’ve done enough rethinking of some conservative dogmas — that I myself am unlikely to be returning to the Republican fold anytime soon.
The fact is, I have not voted for a Republican since Trump became president.