In mid-March, less than a month after Russia invaded Ukraine, political scientist Francis Fukuyama offered a striking prediction: Ukraine will win.
Six months later, Ukraine is on the offensive, and is recapturing key territory amid signs of weakening Russian resolve. Reports indicate that weaponry and intelligence supplied by the United States and other allied nations are giving Ukraine’s counteroffensive a serious boost. The NATO alliance has remained durable and united behind Ukraine, despite Russia’s attempt to undermine that unity by limiting natural gas exports to Europe.
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While it’s impossible to say whether Ukraine will prevail, it’s now a real possibility. Fukuyama, who authored the “end of history” thesis and has a new book about liberalism’s travails, believes a defeat for Russia — and President Vladimir Putin — could reinvigorate liberal democracy and deal a blow to rising authoritarianism around the globe.
I spoke to Fukuyama about the latest developments and what a Russian defeat could mean. An edited and condensed version of our exchange follows.
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Greg Sargent: The last time we talked, you predicted a Ukrainian victory. Now Ukraine is on the offensive. What’s your prognosis now?
Francis Fukuyama: The Ukrainians are going to continue to rout the Russians. It’s hard to know exactly how long it’s going to take. But I think it’s going to happen sooner rather than later.
It’s now possible to contemplate the eventual liberation of Crimea, given the rate at which the Ukrainians are going. That creates a whole different geopolitical outlook for everyone.
If this kind of success continues to unfold, then you can think about an end to the war.
Sargent: What does it look like to get to a favorable resolution for Ukraine?
Fukuyama: The minimum condition is for the Russians to be driven out of the territories they conquered after Feb. 24.
Sargent: You identify one big looming uncertainty: Will Western democracies maintain support for Ukraine as we head into colder weather and energy prices continue rising?
The dynamic seems to be that if Ukraine can continue its gains, it becomes easier for Western leaders to make the case to their peoples to hold out.
Fukuyama: I don’t think there’s going to be any problem holding the Western alliance together this winter. Ukraine had to show that there was light at the end of the tunnel in terms of the military conflict. And they’ve done that in spades.
It will be relatively easy for European leaders to tell their people, “Yes, it’s bad. There’s inflation. You’re paying more for gas. But the Ukrainians are on the move. One winter will get us through and allow us to achieve this big victory for Ukrainian democracy.”
Sargent: The solidarity behind Ukraine seems rooted in a desire of citizens in Western liberal democracies to stand on one side of a conflict between liberal democracy and illiberal autocracy.
Do you think people in Western liberal democracies understand this as kind of a threshold conflict between ideological alternatives?
Fukuyama: I think Putin represents something very sinister in the minds of many people in the West.
A lot of people in Western democracies see that in their country, there’s a right-wing nationalist politician that is either supporting Putin or acts a lot like Putin. Matteo Salvini in Italy; Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen in France; Viktor Orban in Hungary. And Donald Trump.
So I do think there is a kind of awareness of more liberal-minded people that this alternative also exists in their country.
Sargent: It’s like a right-wing authoritarian Internationale. How do you think about the global right?
Fukuyama: I think it’s much deeper than most people realize. Russia has been giving support to every single one of these right-wing populists.
I don’t know of a single democracy that’s not been hit by mountains of Russian disinformation, all of which is trying to weaken people’s confidence and trust in their existing institutions and leaders.
Six months later, Ukraine is on the offensive, and is recapturing key territory amid signs of weakening Russian resolve. Reports indicate that weaponry and intelligence supplied by the United States and other allied nations are giving Ukraine’s counteroffensive a serious boost. The NATO alliance has remained durable and united behind Ukraine, despite Russia’s attempt to undermine that unity by limiting natural gas exports to Europe.
Sign up for a weekly roundup of thought-provoking ideas and debates
While it’s impossible to say whether Ukraine will prevail, it’s now a real possibility. Fukuyama, who authored the “end of history” thesis and has a new book about liberalism’s travails, believes a defeat for Russia — and President Vladimir Putin — could reinvigorate liberal democracy and deal a blow to rising authoritarianism around the globe.
I spoke to Fukuyama about the latest developments and what a Russian defeat could mean. An edited and condensed version of our exchange follows.
Follow Greg Sargent's opinionsFollow
Greg Sargent: The last time we talked, you predicted a Ukrainian victory. Now Ukraine is on the offensive. What’s your prognosis now?
Francis Fukuyama: The Ukrainians are going to continue to rout the Russians. It’s hard to know exactly how long it’s going to take. But I think it’s going to happen sooner rather than later.
It’s now possible to contemplate the eventual liberation of Crimea, given the rate at which the Ukrainians are going. That creates a whole different geopolitical outlook for everyone.
If this kind of success continues to unfold, then you can think about an end to the war.
Sargent: What does it look like to get to a favorable resolution for Ukraine?
Fukuyama: The minimum condition is for the Russians to be driven out of the territories they conquered after Feb. 24.
Sargent: You identify one big looming uncertainty: Will Western democracies maintain support for Ukraine as we head into colder weather and energy prices continue rising?
The dynamic seems to be that if Ukraine can continue its gains, it becomes easier for Western leaders to make the case to their peoples to hold out.
Fukuyama: I don’t think there’s going to be any problem holding the Western alliance together this winter. Ukraine had to show that there was light at the end of the tunnel in terms of the military conflict. And they’ve done that in spades.
It will be relatively easy for European leaders to tell their people, “Yes, it’s bad. There’s inflation. You’re paying more for gas. But the Ukrainians are on the move. One winter will get us through and allow us to achieve this big victory for Ukrainian democracy.”
Sargent: The solidarity behind Ukraine seems rooted in a desire of citizens in Western liberal democracies to stand on one side of a conflict between liberal democracy and illiberal autocracy.
Do you think people in Western liberal democracies understand this as kind of a threshold conflict between ideological alternatives?
Fukuyama: I think Putin represents something very sinister in the minds of many people in the West.
A lot of people in Western democracies see that in their country, there’s a right-wing nationalist politician that is either supporting Putin or acts a lot like Putin. Matteo Salvini in Italy; Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen in France; Viktor Orban in Hungary. And Donald Trump.
So I do think there is a kind of awareness of more liberal-minded people that this alternative also exists in their country.
Sargent: It’s like a right-wing authoritarian Internationale. How do you think about the global right?
Fukuyama: I think it’s much deeper than most people realize. Russia has been giving support to every single one of these right-wing populists.
I don’t know of a single democracy that’s not been hit by mountains of Russian disinformation, all of which is trying to weaken people’s confidence and trust in their existing institutions and leaders.