Opinion by
Greg Sargent
Columnist
Today at 11:04 a.m. EDT
Barely hours after Senate Democrats passed their $3.5 trillion reconciliation budget resolution, Sen. Joe Manchin III issued a statement that unleashed waves of dread across Twitter.
“I firmly believe that continuing to spend at irresponsible levels puts at risk our nation’s ability to respond to the unforeseen crises our country could face,” the West Virginia Democrat said, citing “serious concerns” that “inflation” could be exacerbated by “trillions in additional spending.”
There are reasons to be skeptical that this will end up mattering too much, however. And those reasons reveal important peculiarities about the moment, and about the true nature of the challenges Democrats now face.
The spending that Manchin is criticizing is a blueprint: The $3.5 trillion sets basic goals to be written into legislation by Democratic-controlled committees. That comes as the Senate just passed a bipartisan bill spending $1 trillion on “hard” infrastructure.
ADVERTISING
The reconciliation blueprint’s ambitious goals would boost the economic prospects of millions, while reorienting the economy toward the climate crisis. They would extend the child tax credit for most families; expand access to health care, Medicare and Medicaid; invest heavily in new green technologies; create universal pre-K; and much more.
The big challenge for Democrats now is keeping their caucuses united, both while the reconciliation bill is written and while the process is developed for ushering both to passage.
Paradoxically, this is why statements such as Manchin’s might help. They will give progressives more grounds for withholding support for the bipartisan bill in the House until the Senate sends over a finished reconciliation product.
Which in turn makes the whole delicate balancing act more likely to succeed.
As Politico reports, Republicans are counting on Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) to insist on lowering the reconciliation bill’s spending in exchange for their support. Republicans also hope divisions among Democrats will worsen. Some House moderates are demanding that the House pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill now, rather than wait for the reconciliation bill from the Senate.
But progressives are insisting this would squander their leverage to compel moderates to support the reconciliation bill at its current spending levels, or something close to them.
Progressives are right about this. And every time Manchin issues a statement such as this one, it confirms the point. The only way this works is if each faction makes the other happy: Once a reconciliation bill is sent over, the left supports the bipartisan bill, and moderates support the reconciliation one, and both pass.
By the way, in this scenario, moderates are not getting rolled. Yes, they aren’t getting an immediate vote on the bipartisan bill. But they, too, are exercising leverage: They are compelling progressives to support that bipartisan bill, and have made progressives swallow long delays to secure it, in exchange for moderate support for the reconciliation one.
We’re in an unusual situation: Each side exercising leverage on the other holds out the promise of a happier ending.
Of course, progressive must actually exert their leverage for all this to work. But in this case, most indications are that Biden and Democratic leaders want them to. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) continues to support this strategy. And Biden said this Tuesday:
Thus, plus the fact that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), as Budget Committee chair, had a big hand in negotiating the reconciliation budget resolution, suggests some parts of the left are taking on an inside-game role in service of progressive ends — another way this is an unusual situation.
To be clear, Manchin may well succeed in scaling down the reconciliation bill’s spending somewhat. But while Manchin insisted on concessions to pass the big covid-19 relief bill earlier this year, it still passed at around $2 trillion.
And Democrats can appeal to Manchin by proving him wrong. Economists say such fears about new spending fueling inflation are largely unwarranted, and they’ve offered a solid case that such fears must not cost us a unique opportunity to address multiple serious long-term national crises.
And if Democrats do a good job writing the portion of the package that would fund it with an array of taxes on corporations and the wealthy, his fears about being paid for could be assuaged.
Yes, this whole house of cards could collapse. Moderates could genuinely try to derail the reconciliation bill, or progressives could refuse to accept small concessions to keep Manchin and Sinema on board.
But here’s where Biden himself comes in. He can plausibly argue that both the bipartisan bill and something very close to the $3.5 trillion in the reconciliation bill are crucial to the success of the Biden presidency, the Democratic Party and the future of the country.
The reconciliation bill is not “the left’s” agenda. It’s the Biden agenda and the agenda of the whole Democratic Party. It would spend big on future-oriented infrastructure to tackle climate change and provide a lift to millions of families struggling to get into the middle class. Those are things that moderates and the left can unite behind.
So there’s good reason for Biden to want the left to exercise its leverage to make this happen. And with some luck, Manchin’s consternation can actually help in that regard.
Greg Sargent
Columnist
Today at 11:04 a.m. EDT
Barely hours after Senate Democrats passed their $3.5 trillion reconciliation budget resolution, Sen. Joe Manchin III issued a statement that unleashed waves of dread across Twitter.
“I firmly believe that continuing to spend at irresponsible levels puts at risk our nation’s ability to respond to the unforeseen crises our country could face,” the West Virginia Democrat said, citing “serious concerns” that “inflation” could be exacerbated by “trillions in additional spending.”
There are reasons to be skeptical that this will end up mattering too much, however. And those reasons reveal important peculiarities about the moment, and about the true nature of the challenges Democrats now face.
The spending that Manchin is criticizing is a blueprint: The $3.5 trillion sets basic goals to be written into legislation by Democratic-controlled committees. That comes as the Senate just passed a bipartisan bill spending $1 trillion on “hard” infrastructure.
ADVERTISING
The reconciliation blueprint’s ambitious goals would boost the economic prospects of millions, while reorienting the economy toward the climate crisis. They would extend the child tax credit for most families; expand access to health care, Medicare and Medicaid; invest heavily in new green technologies; create universal pre-K; and much more.
The big challenge for Democrats now is keeping their caucuses united, both while the reconciliation bill is written and while the process is developed for ushering both to passage.
Paradoxically, this is why statements such as Manchin’s might help. They will give progressives more grounds for withholding support for the bipartisan bill in the House until the Senate sends over a finished reconciliation product.
Which in turn makes the whole delicate balancing act more likely to succeed.
As Politico reports, Republicans are counting on Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) to insist on lowering the reconciliation bill’s spending in exchange for their support. Republicans also hope divisions among Democrats will worsen. Some House moderates are demanding that the House pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill now, rather than wait for the reconciliation bill from the Senate.
But progressives are insisting this would squander their leverage to compel moderates to support the reconciliation bill at its current spending levels, or something close to them.
Progressives are right about this. And every time Manchin issues a statement such as this one, it confirms the point. The only way this works is if each faction makes the other happy: Once a reconciliation bill is sent over, the left supports the bipartisan bill, and moderates support the reconciliation one, and both pass.
By the way, in this scenario, moderates are not getting rolled. Yes, they aren’t getting an immediate vote on the bipartisan bill. But they, too, are exercising leverage: They are compelling progressives to support that bipartisan bill, and have made progressives swallow long delays to secure it, in exchange for moderate support for the reconciliation one.
We’re in an unusual situation: Each side exercising leverage on the other holds out the promise of a happier ending.
Of course, progressive must actually exert their leverage for all this to work. But in this case, most indications are that Biden and Democratic leaders want them to. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) continues to support this strategy. And Biden said this Tuesday:
That’s an express endorsement of this two-track strategy. Which underscores another unusual thing about this moment: Progressives are in a position to exercise leverage, and Democratic leaders appear to want them to use it.
Thus, plus the fact that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), as Budget Committee chair, had a big hand in negotiating the reconciliation budget resolution, suggests some parts of the left are taking on an inside-game role in service of progressive ends — another way this is an unusual situation.
To be clear, Manchin may well succeed in scaling down the reconciliation bill’s spending somewhat. But while Manchin insisted on concessions to pass the big covid-19 relief bill earlier this year, it still passed at around $2 trillion.
And Democrats can appeal to Manchin by proving him wrong. Economists say such fears about new spending fueling inflation are largely unwarranted, and they’ve offered a solid case that such fears must not cost us a unique opportunity to address multiple serious long-term national crises.
And if Democrats do a good job writing the portion of the package that would fund it with an array of taxes on corporations and the wealthy, his fears about being paid for could be assuaged.
Yes, this whole house of cards could collapse. Moderates could genuinely try to derail the reconciliation bill, or progressives could refuse to accept small concessions to keep Manchin and Sinema on board.
But here’s where Biden himself comes in. He can plausibly argue that both the bipartisan bill and something very close to the $3.5 trillion in the reconciliation bill are crucial to the success of the Biden presidency, the Democratic Party and the future of the country.
The reconciliation bill is not “the left’s” agenda. It’s the Biden agenda and the agenda of the whole Democratic Party. It would spend big on future-oriented infrastructure to tackle climate change and provide a lift to millions of families struggling to get into the middle class. Those are things that moderates and the left can unite behind.
So there’s good reason for Biden to want the left to exercise its leverage to make this happen. And with some luck, Manchin’s consternation can actually help in that regard.
