Be careful what you wish for. Republican zealots spent decades trying to erase the constitutional right to abortion. Last year, they finally succeeded — and now they are reaping the whirlwind.
Supreme Court Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr.’s smug and self-satisfied majority opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization took away fundamental rights of privacy and bodily autonomy that had been recognized, and protected, for half a century. It is now clear that the ruling also generated a backlash against the Republican Party, which is radically out of step with public sentiment on the issue of abortion.
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This was vividly illustrated in an election last week for a seat on Wisconsin’s Supreme Court, which is expected to rule soon on an 1849 state law banning practically all abortions — an outdated statute that became relevant again after Dobbs. The liberal candidate, Janet Protasiewicz, was explicit in her support for abortion rights. Her conservative opponent, Daniel Kelly, has written that abortion rights are “deadly to children” and that Democrats and women’s groups are pro-choice because they want “to preserve sexual libertinism.”
In a closely divided swing state, Protasiewicz defeated Kelly in an 11-point landslide, giving liberals a majority on the court. This means the old abortion ban, imposed decades before women were allowed to vote, is all but certain to be struck down. It also means that Wisconsin’s election maps — aggressively gerrymandered by Republicans to give their party enduring control in the state legislature and to send Republicans to Congress — will surely be challenged.
Ruth Marcus: The worst federal judge in America now has a name
The practical impact? Wisconsin’s congressional delegation includes six Republican and two Democratic U.S. representatives. Fairly drawn maps could change the mix to four and four. If two additional members join the Democratic caucus, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) will be delighted. Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), not so much.
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Every seat in Congress is crucial because Republicans so badly underperformed in last year’s midterms, failing to take the Senate and scraping together a fragile, bare majority in the House. What Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) called “candidate quality” was one factor in the GOP’s poor showing. The party’s fanatical opposition to abortion was another, as Democrats were able to use the Dobbs decision to galvanize voters.
They could do so because it is crystal clear that most Americans do not want to see abortion banned. A Pew Research Center poll taken last year, right after the Dobbs ruling was announced, showed that 62 percent of respondents said abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 36 percent said the procedure should be illegal in all or most cases. That is a decisive margin.
Gallup, which has been polling on abortion since the 1970s, found in its most recent post-Dobbs survey that 35 percent of respondents believe abortion should be legal “under any circumstances,” an all-time high for that question, while just 13 percent said it should be illegal “in all circumstances,” an all-time low. That leaves roughly 50 percent of Americans, according to Gallup, who have consistently said that abortion should be legal “under certain circumstances.”
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What these numbers mean is that while a vocal and uncompromising subset of the Republican Party base may want a society like that in “The Handmaid’s Tale,” in which women have no agency and no autonomy over their bodies, most Americans do not want to live in such a cruel dystopia.
This should not be a surprise. After Alito’s draft opinion in Dobbs was leaked, but before it was officially announced, Gallup polled on whether the Supreme Court should overturn Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 ruling that guaranteed abortion rights. Just 32 percent of respondents said that would be “a good thing,” while 63 percent said it would be “a bad thing.” Yet here we are, thanks to Alito and the rest of the Republican-appointed, antiabortion ideologues on the court.
Now that abortion is an issue for the states to decide, Republican governors and state legislatures are rushing to enact ever more draconian bans. Florida already bans abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, but the legislature is working to pass — and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is expected to sign — a six-week ban, barring abortion before many women even know they are pregnant.
Analysis: Why the GOP isn't celebrating that major antiabortion ruling
Yet even in deep-red states such as Kansas and Kentucky, voters have soundly rejected attempts to strip away protections for abortion rights that are enshrined in their state constitutions.
Crazy overreaches by antiabortion extremists serve only to energize the pro-choice majority. I refer to Friday’s ruling by U.S. District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk, an appointee of President Donald Trump, who absurdly imposed a nationwide ban on the drug mifepristone, used in more than half of U.S. abortions.
Republican strategists want the party to please stop talking so much about abortion. They should have told Alito.
Supreme Court Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr.’s smug and self-satisfied majority opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization took away fundamental rights of privacy and bodily autonomy that had been recognized, and protected, for half a century. It is now clear that the ruling also generated a backlash against the Republican Party, which is radically out of step with public sentiment on the issue of abortion.
Make sense of the news fast with our daily newsletterThis was vividly illustrated in an election last week for a seat on Wisconsin’s Supreme Court, which is expected to rule soon on an 1849 state law banning practically all abortions — an outdated statute that became relevant again after Dobbs. The liberal candidate, Janet Protasiewicz, was explicit in her support for abortion rights. Her conservative opponent, Daniel Kelly, has written that abortion rights are “deadly to children” and that Democrats and women’s groups are pro-choice because they want “to preserve sexual libertinism.”
In a closely divided swing state, Protasiewicz defeated Kelly in an 11-point landslide, giving liberals a majority on the court. This means the old abortion ban, imposed decades before women were allowed to vote, is all but certain to be struck down. It also means that Wisconsin’s election maps — aggressively gerrymandered by Republicans to give their party enduring control in the state legislature and to send Republicans to Congress — will surely be challenged.
Ruth Marcus: The worst federal judge in America now has a name
The practical impact? Wisconsin’s congressional delegation includes six Republican and two Democratic U.S. representatives. Fairly drawn maps could change the mix to four and four. If two additional members join the Democratic caucus, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) will be delighted. Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), not so much.
Follow Eugene Robinson's opinionsFollow
Every seat in Congress is crucial because Republicans so badly underperformed in last year’s midterms, failing to take the Senate and scraping together a fragile, bare majority in the House. What Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) called “candidate quality” was one factor in the GOP’s poor showing. The party’s fanatical opposition to abortion was another, as Democrats were able to use the Dobbs decision to galvanize voters.
They could do so because it is crystal clear that most Americans do not want to see abortion banned. A Pew Research Center poll taken last year, right after the Dobbs ruling was announced, showed that 62 percent of respondents said abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 36 percent said the procedure should be illegal in all or most cases. That is a decisive margin.
Gallup, which has been polling on abortion since the 1970s, found in its most recent post-Dobbs survey that 35 percent of respondents believe abortion should be legal “under any circumstances,” an all-time high for that question, while just 13 percent said it should be illegal “in all circumstances,” an all-time low. That leaves roughly 50 percent of Americans, according to Gallup, who have consistently said that abortion should be legal “under certain circumstances.”
Press Enter to skip to end of carousel
What these numbers mean is that while a vocal and uncompromising subset of the Republican Party base may want a society like that in “The Handmaid’s Tale,” in which women have no agency and no autonomy over their bodies, most Americans do not want to live in such a cruel dystopia.
This should not be a surprise. After Alito’s draft opinion in Dobbs was leaked, but before it was officially announced, Gallup polled on whether the Supreme Court should overturn Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 ruling that guaranteed abortion rights. Just 32 percent of respondents said that would be “a good thing,” while 63 percent said it would be “a bad thing.” Yet here we are, thanks to Alito and the rest of the Republican-appointed, antiabortion ideologues on the court.
Now that abortion is an issue for the states to decide, Republican governors and state legislatures are rushing to enact ever more draconian bans. Florida already bans abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, but the legislature is working to pass — and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is expected to sign — a six-week ban, barring abortion before many women even know they are pregnant.
Analysis: Why the GOP isn't celebrating that major antiabortion ruling
Yet even in deep-red states such as Kansas and Kentucky, voters have soundly rejected attempts to strip away protections for abortion rights that are enshrined in their state constitutions.
Crazy overreaches by antiabortion extremists serve only to energize the pro-choice majority. I refer to Friday’s ruling by U.S. District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk, an appointee of President Donald Trump, who absurdly imposed a nationwide ban on the drug mifepristone, used in more than half of U.S. abortions.
Republican strategists want the party to please stop talking so much about abortion. They should have told Alito.
