By Max Boot
Columnist
Today at 10:54 a.m. EST
Ever since Donald Trump shocked the world by winning the presidency over liberal icon Hillary Clinton in 2016, progressives have been fantasizing that he would go straight from the White House to the big house.
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Actor Robert De Niro spoke for many when he said in 2019: “I can’t wait to see him in jail.” Progressive purveyors of “fake news” even claimed in 2017 that the president had been named in a “sealed indictment.” Late-night host James Corden produced a hilarious — and, for progressives, cathartic — sketch of special counsel Robert S. Mueller III arresting Trump right in the Oval Office.
But Mueller’s investigation has come and gone. So have two impeachment trials and various other legal cases. Trump remains not only a free man but also the front-runner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
Yet hope springs eternal. “Yes, Donald Trump really is going to prison — and he’s not the only one,” screams a conspiratorial website with more than 400,000 followers on Twitter. A co-founder of the Lincoln Project tweets: “What if we just turn a federal prison into the Trump Presidential Museum and visitors can see the inmates/administration officials all in one place?” An MSNBC opinion piece asks plaintively: “Is 2022 the year Trump is charged with a crime?”
Expectations that Trump will finally wind up in the slammer were buoyed by three major developments last week. On Tuesday, New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) filed a 157-page court document alleging that the Trump Organization misrepresented the value of Trump’s properties and his personal net worth in filings with insurance brokers, lenders and tax authorities. On Wednesday, the Supreme Court turned aside Trump’s “emergency” attempt to protect his papers from a subpoena by the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 insurrection. And then on Thursday, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (D) requested a special grand jury to aid her investigation of whether Trump broke the law by trying to pressure Georgia election officials to overturn the results of that state’s presidential voting.
Maybe one of these cases will result in Trump being convicted, as so many fervently hope. But I wouldn’t get my hopes up.
James’s court filing is part of a civil probe that can result in fines but not prison sentences. Her office is conducting a parallel criminal investigation with the Manhattan district attorney, Alvin Bragg (D), but it would be hard to convict Trump of fraud given the legal language normally included in financial filings to shield executives from liability.
Moreover, given Trump’s habit of conducting business orally (he reportedly doesn’t even send emails), it would be difficult to prove that he was personally responsible for any wrongdoing. He can always deny criminal intent by saying that he was acting on the best advice of his lawyers and accountants. The best bet is to “flip” his longtime chief financial officer, Allen Weisselberg, who has been indicted, along with the Trump Organization, on charges of tax fraud. But there has been no public indication that Weisselberg is prepared to testify against his boss.
The Jan. 6 committee is uncovering a lot of evidence — such as a draft executive order to have the Defense Department seize voting machines — about Trump’s attempt to overturn the election results. While Trump’s actions were undemocratic and un-American, it would be hard to prove “beyond a reasonable doubt” that they were also illegal.
The founder of the extremist group Oath Keepers was charged with seditious conspiracy in connection with the assault on the Capitol, but there is no public indication that the Justice Department is even investigating Trump. The Post reports that FBI agents have not been interviewing Trump’s lieutenants or making document or interview requests to the Trump campaign. No special counsel has been appointed.
Legal experts caution that it would be difficult to build a case against Trump. He could claim that when he told the MAGA mob on Jan. 6 to “fight like hell” he was merely engaging in typical political hyperbole. He could also argue that when he demanded that the Georgia secretary of state “find” votes for him, he was acting under the genuine, if delusional, belief that voter fraud had occurred.
And so, as much as I would love to see Trump held legally accountable for his misconduct, I remain pessimistic that he will ever be indicted, much less convicted. Even in the unlikely event that he is ultimately found guilty of a felony, that alone won’t stop him from running for president. At least three candidates — most famously Socialist Party leader Eugene V. Debs in 1920 — have actually run for president while incarcerated. The Senate could have prevented Trump from running again, but that would have required convicting him of impeachable offenses.
Don’t get me wrong. I still think that Attorney General Merrick Garland needs to mount an aggressive investigation of Trump’s misconduct, and if the evidence warrants, pursue an indictment. But I’m not optimistic that the criminal justice system will save our democracy from the ordeal of another Trump term. It will be up to voters and politicians — not jurors and prosecutors — to stop this dangerous demagogue.
Columnist
Today at 10:54 a.m. EST
Ever since Donald Trump shocked the world by winning the presidency over liberal icon Hillary Clinton in 2016, progressives have been fantasizing that he would go straight from the White House to the big house.
Opinions to start the day, in your inbox. Sign up.
Actor Robert De Niro spoke for many when he said in 2019: “I can’t wait to see him in jail.” Progressive purveyors of “fake news” even claimed in 2017 that the president had been named in a “sealed indictment.” Late-night host James Corden produced a hilarious — and, for progressives, cathartic — sketch of special counsel Robert S. Mueller III arresting Trump right in the Oval Office.
But Mueller’s investigation has come and gone. So have two impeachment trials and various other legal cases. Trump remains not only a free man but also the front-runner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
Yet hope springs eternal. “Yes, Donald Trump really is going to prison — and he’s not the only one,” screams a conspiratorial website with more than 400,000 followers on Twitter. A co-founder of the Lincoln Project tweets: “What if we just turn a federal prison into the Trump Presidential Museum and visitors can see the inmates/administration officials all in one place?” An MSNBC opinion piece asks plaintively: “Is 2022 the year Trump is charged with a crime?”
Expectations that Trump will finally wind up in the slammer were buoyed by three major developments last week. On Tuesday, New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) filed a 157-page court document alleging that the Trump Organization misrepresented the value of Trump’s properties and his personal net worth in filings with insurance brokers, lenders and tax authorities. On Wednesday, the Supreme Court turned aside Trump’s “emergency” attempt to protect his papers from a subpoena by the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 insurrection. And then on Thursday, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (D) requested a special grand jury to aid her investigation of whether Trump broke the law by trying to pressure Georgia election officials to overturn the results of that state’s presidential voting.
Maybe one of these cases will result in Trump being convicted, as so many fervently hope. But I wouldn’t get my hopes up.
James’s court filing is part of a civil probe that can result in fines but not prison sentences. Her office is conducting a parallel criminal investigation with the Manhattan district attorney, Alvin Bragg (D), but it would be hard to convict Trump of fraud given the legal language normally included in financial filings to shield executives from liability.
Moreover, given Trump’s habit of conducting business orally (he reportedly doesn’t even send emails), it would be difficult to prove that he was personally responsible for any wrongdoing. He can always deny criminal intent by saying that he was acting on the best advice of his lawyers and accountants. The best bet is to “flip” his longtime chief financial officer, Allen Weisselberg, who has been indicted, along with the Trump Organization, on charges of tax fraud. But there has been no public indication that Weisselberg is prepared to testify against his boss.
The Jan. 6 committee is uncovering a lot of evidence — such as a draft executive order to have the Defense Department seize voting machines — about Trump’s attempt to overturn the election results. While Trump’s actions were undemocratic and un-American, it would be hard to prove “beyond a reasonable doubt” that they were also illegal.
The founder of the extremist group Oath Keepers was charged with seditious conspiracy in connection with the assault on the Capitol, but there is no public indication that the Justice Department is even investigating Trump. The Post reports that FBI agents have not been interviewing Trump’s lieutenants or making document or interview requests to the Trump campaign. No special counsel has been appointed.
Legal experts caution that it would be difficult to build a case against Trump. He could claim that when he told the MAGA mob on Jan. 6 to “fight like hell” he was merely engaging in typical political hyperbole. He could also argue that when he demanded that the Georgia secretary of state “find” votes for him, he was acting under the genuine, if delusional, belief that voter fraud had occurred.
And so, as much as I would love to see Trump held legally accountable for his misconduct, I remain pessimistic that he will ever be indicted, much less convicted. Even in the unlikely event that he is ultimately found guilty of a felony, that alone won’t stop him from running for president. At least three candidates — most famously Socialist Party leader Eugene V. Debs in 1920 — have actually run for president while incarcerated. The Senate could have prevented Trump from running again, but that would have required convicting him of impeachable offenses.
Don’t get me wrong. I still think that Attorney General Merrick Garland needs to mount an aggressive investigation of Trump’s misconduct, and if the evidence warrants, pursue an indictment. But I’m not optimistic that the criminal justice system will save our democracy from the ordeal of another Trump term. It will be up to voters and politicians — not jurors and prosecutors — to stop this dangerous demagogue.
