By Greg Sargent
Columnist |
September 14, 2022 at 12:02 p.m. EDT
Last month, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu warned fellow Republicans that nominating wild-eyed Trumpist Don Bolduc for Senate could be disastrous. Bolduc would make it “much harder” to win, said Sununu, slamming Bolduc as a “conspiracy-theory extremist.”
Sign up for a weekly roundup of thought-provoking ideas and debates
Apparently the state’s GOP primary voters saw that last bit as a feature, not a bug. On Tuesday, they gave the nod to Bolduc, who is on track to becoming the nominee against incumbent Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan.
In another death knell for New England moderate Republicanism, MAGA candidates are moving toward winning all three congressional primaries in New Hampshire. Along with Bolduc, full-blown Donald Trump acolyte Karoline Leavitt will be the GOP candidate in the 1st House District, and Trumpist Bob Burns prevailed in the 2nd.
The surprise MAGA sweep prompted analysts to note that taken together, the results will complicate the GOP’s midterm hopes. It could cost Republicans the Senate if the battle comes down to one seat. And the Cook Political Report has already shifted one of those House races from “Toss Up” to “Leans Democratic.”
ADVERTISING
Plainly, GOP primary voters were not swayed by the argument that being associated with MAGA will cost them general elections. That raises a question: What if the unwillingness or inability to entertain the idea that MAGA is an electoral loser is a feature of Trumpism itself?
Follow Greg Sargent's opinionsFollow
These MAGA victors are a case in point. Bolduc has lent support to Trump’s conspiracy theories about 2020 and has suggested the outcome was corrupted by socialists and Marxists, putting the American way of life in grave danger. He flatly declared “Trump won” and floated scrapping the FBI after the search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort.
Bolduc has also hit back at Sununu by alleging the governor is a “communist Chinese sympathizer” whose family “supports terrorism,” though Bolduc reportedly backed off those statements. In so doing, Bolduc has confirmed Sununu’s criticism of his extremism and conspiracy theorizing to be absolutely correct.
Leavitt is no less Trumpy. As the New York Times recently noted, the 25-year-old former Trump press aide has taken to “mimicking” Trump’s use of language and has declared support for impeaching President Biden regardless of whether hearings are held. She has also stated the 2020 election was “undoubtedly stolen.”
Central to the cult of Trumpism is the notion that it’s always winning, always dominant and always has its enemies on the run. Even when Trump loses, Trumpism actually triumphed, because the system could only have been rigged.
One question is whether this type of mania makes it less likely that voters will entertain the mere thought that being associated with MAGA might be a minority proposition.
Wayne Lesperance, a political science professor at New England College, points out that arguments about the need to win moderates and independents fell flat, even though such appeals have a history of success in the state.
“None of that carried the day,” Lesperance told me, chalking this up partly to Trump’s influence.
Lesperance pointed to a fascinating nuance. He noted that Sununu has repeatedly challenged Trump, which is one reason he’s popular with the New Hampshire electorate, including independents and some Democrats.
Yet when faced with this evidence of what has broad appeal, GOP voters went 180 degrees in the other direction, picking the Trumpiest candidates. “It’s denying reality,” Lesperance said.
There are deeper reasons that Trumpism has some attraction in New Hampshire. It’s the state where Pat Buchanan, whose right-wing populism prefigured Trumpism, famously surged in a 1992 primary against incumbent president George H. Bush.
“Trump's political appeal was presaged by the anti-establishment insurgency of Pat Buchanan,” GOP strategist Liam Donovan told me. “A MAGA primary sweep brings it full circle.”
Now, however, the assertion that Trump won in 2020 — that he cannot possibly have lost, that the very notion is unthinkable — has become an absolutely essential ingredient of these appeals.
Leavitt’s victory illustrates the point. Her primary opponent had decent Trump credentials himself, having served in the State Department under Trump. But he committed the fatal misstep of declaring confidence in New Hampshire elections, allowing Leavitt to out-MAGA him by declaring Trump won.
This got Leavitt’s opponent tagged as the “establishment candidate,” said Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire. Such establishment candidates, Scala told me, “don’t understand their base.”
If the inability of that base to entertain the idea that Trumpism is a losing proposition is itself what helps cost Republicans control of the Senate or House, that would be a fitting outcome indeed.
Columnist |
September 14, 2022 at 12:02 p.m. EDT
Last month, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu warned fellow Republicans that nominating wild-eyed Trumpist Don Bolduc for Senate could be disastrous. Bolduc would make it “much harder” to win, said Sununu, slamming Bolduc as a “conspiracy-theory extremist.”
Sign up for a weekly roundup of thought-provoking ideas and debates
Apparently the state’s GOP primary voters saw that last bit as a feature, not a bug. On Tuesday, they gave the nod to Bolduc, who is on track to becoming the nominee against incumbent Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan.
In another death knell for New England moderate Republicanism, MAGA candidates are moving toward winning all three congressional primaries in New Hampshire. Along with Bolduc, full-blown Donald Trump acolyte Karoline Leavitt will be the GOP candidate in the 1st House District, and Trumpist Bob Burns prevailed in the 2nd.
The surprise MAGA sweep prompted analysts to note that taken together, the results will complicate the GOP’s midterm hopes. It could cost Republicans the Senate if the battle comes down to one seat. And the Cook Political Report has already shifted one of those House races from “Toss Up” to “Leans Democratic.”
ADVERTISING
Plainly, GOP primary voters were not swayed by the argument that being associated with MAGA will cost them general elections. That raises a question: What if the unwillingness or inability to entertain the idea that MAGA is an electoral loser is a feature of Trumpism itself?
Follow Greg Sargent's opinionsFollow
These MAGA victors are a case in point. Bolduc has lent support to Trump’s conspiracy theories about 2020 and has suggested the outcome was corrupted by socialists and Marxists, putting the American way of life in grave danger. He flatly declared “Trump won” and floated scrapping the FBI after the search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort.
Bolduc has also hit back at Sununu by alleging the governor is a “communist Chinese sympathizer” whose family “supports terrorism,” though Bolduc reportedly backed off those statements. In so doing, Bolduc has confirmed Sununu’s criticism of his extremism and conspiracy theorizing to be absolutely correct.
Leavitt is no less Trumpy. As the New York Times recently noted, the 25-year-old former Trump press aide has taken to “mimicking” Trump’s use of language and has declared support for impeaching President Biden regardless of whether hearings are held. She has also stated the 2020 election was “undoubtedly stolen.”
Central to the cult of Trumpism is the notion that it’s always winning, always dominant and always has its enemies on the run. Even when Trump loses, Trumpism actually triumphed, because the system could only have been rigged.
One question is whether this type of mania makes it less likely that voters will entertain the mere thought that being associated with MAGA might be a minority proposition.
Wayne Lesperance, a political science professor at New England College, points out that arguments about the need to win moderates and independents fell flat, even though such appeals have a history of success in the state.
“None of that carried the day,” Lesperance told me, chalking this up partly to Trump’s influence.
Lesperance pointed to a fascinating nuance. He noted that Sununu has repeatedly challenged Trump, which is one reason he’s popular with the New Hampshire electorate, including independents and some Democrats.
Yet when faced with this evidence of what has broad appeal, GOP voters went 180 degrees in the other direction, picking the Trumpiest candidates. “It’s denying reality,” Lesperance said.
There are deeper reasons that Trumpism has some attraction in New Hampshire. It’s the state where Pat Buchanan, whose right-wing populism prefigured Trumpism, famously surged in a 1992 primary against incumbent president George H. Bush.
“Trump's political appeal was presaged by the anti-establishment insurgency of Pat Buchanan,” GOP strategist Liam Donovan told me. “A MAGA primary sweep brings it full circle.”
Now, however, the assertion that Trump won in 2020 — that he cannot possibly have lost, that the very notion is unthinkable — has become an absolutely essential ingredient of these appeals.
Leavitt’s victory illustrates the point. Her primary opponent had decent Trump credentials himself, having served in the State Department under Trump. But he committed the fatal misstep of declaring confidence in New Hampshire elections, allowing Leavitt to out-MAGA him by declaring Trump won.
This got Leavitt’s opponent tagged as the “establishment candidate,” said Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire. Such establishment candidates, Scala told me, “don’t understand their base.”
If the inability of that base to entertain the idea that Trumpism is a losing proposition is itself what helps cost Republicans control of the Senate or House, that would be a fitting outcome indeed.
