Opinion The Senate’s victory on same-sex marriage should terrify the GOP

cigaretteman

HR King
May 29, 2001
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By Jennifer Rubin
Columnist |


The Senate advanced a bill on Wednesday to codify protections for same-sex marriage, attracting enough Republican votes to overcome the filibuster. Take a moment to consider the breathtaking shift in American attitudes that this represents.

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In 2008, President Barack Obama was not willing to embrace same-sex marriage. Now, even the Mormon Church has endorsed the bill. A critical mass of Republicans understand that same-sex marriage is here to stay. Whatever their personal views, they grasp that opposition to it signifies a level of bigotry even many GOP voters are unwilling to tolerate.

The simple political reality is this: Outside deep-red enclaves, Republicans cannot maintain their anti-same-sex marriage stance without marginalizing themselves. It’s part of a slow recognition that their adoption of Christian nationalist positions alienates a substantial portion of voters.







There might be some risk for Republicans embracing same-sex marriage. Right-wing gadflies such as Ben Shapiro have already called to excommunicate Republicans who support same-sex marriage. It’s possible that Wednesday’s vote sets up incumbent Republicans to face primary challengers from Christian nationalists.

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And therein lies the problem for the GOP. Republicans face a number of quandaries these days that force them to choose between loyalty to the MAGA cult and general-election viability. Do they reject former president Donald Trump in the primaries and risk him dragging down the party if he runs as an independent in 2024? Do they recruit more non-election deniers for House, Senate and state offices, understanding that those who question the legitimacy of elections are proven losers?
But no question looms larger than how they intend to win office while maintaining the support of Christian nationalists whose views are antithetical to a supermajority of Americans — and this goes beyond same-sex marriage. We saw what support for rigid abortion bans did to Republicans in the midterms. Michigan went entirely blue largely because independent women went overwhelmingly for Democrats to protect abortion rights. But if pro-forced-birth Republicans try to course-correct, dropping proposals for a national ban, they risk offending a large constituency.



As Robert P. Jones, president of the Public Religion Research Institute, explains in a Substack post, the midterms served as a reminder that “an overwhelming majority of Americans do not favor extreme policies like bans on abortion. Even in a red state like Kentucky, voters rejected an anti-abortion amendment.” He points out that polling has regularly revealed that “nearly seven in ten Americans and six in ten midterm voters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. That is the mainstream view on abortion.”
But it’s far from the mainstream view among elected Republicans. Indeed, Jones writes, “the percentage saying abortion should be illegal in ALL cases has dropped from 23% in 2020 to 11% in late 2022.”
Put differently, Republican officials find themselves held hostage by their most extreme primary voters. Virtually all GOP presidential primary candidates will feel compelled to adopt a strict antiabortion stance to have any hope of winning primaries. Meanwhile, if Republicans win the House majority, it might be impossible for them to resist the urge to put a nationwide abortion ban on the House floor. The next time Republicans are up for election (potentially with more abortion-related measures on the ballot), they might feel the wrath of voters again.



To some extent, rigid opposition to gun reform lands Republicans in a similar place. As voters (even Republicans) warm to reasonable limits on weapons of war, Republicans are caught between the demands of Second Amendment extremists and the desire to avoid being labeled as out of touch with the fears many parents have for their children’s safety.
Republicans are finding out there is a penalty to be paid for cultural extremism, but they have yet to show they are capable of preserving general-election viability. Over the next two years, as MAGA forces double down in the GOP House caucus and Trump fights with primary opponents for the support of the GOP base, Democrats will be delighted to watch Republicans marginalize themselves. During that time, Democrats will look for opportunities to put measures related to abortion and other cultural issues on the ballot in 2024. If that approach worked to drive Democrats to the polls in 2022, there is no reason to think it won’t work again in 2024.
This is what happens when a national political party becomes almost entirely dependent on a group whose views are far out of the American mainstream. One of the great revelations of the 2022 midterms was that Democrats can run on cultural issues and win outside of deep-blue districts and states. They’d be foolish not to try to re-create that success.

 

artradley

HR Legend
Apr 26, 2013
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Explain to me why there is even a hint of a national marriage law?

I would say to establish justice, and to secure the blessings of liberty.

But also because there are a lot of laws relating to marriage, spouse, etc so the federal government has an interest. Tell me, why is it important to you that some states be allowed to deny equal rights to gay people?
 

Colonoscopy

HR All-American
Silver Member
Feb 20, 2022
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Repubs have been beholden to their most extreme constituents for a long time. They've got 25-30% evangelical voters... but they're shrinking every year and becoming more and more irrelevant.

It's obvious gay marriage was going to be a losing battle for them and something they'd have to drop.
 

notlongago

HR Heisman
Jul 28, 2012
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If it should "terrify" anyone, it's extreme progressives. Just another bullet out of their chamber they can use to villify the opposition.
 
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DooBi

HR Heisman
Sep 18, 2006
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Repubs have been beholden to their most extreme constituents for a long time. They've got 25-30% evangelical voters... but they're shrinking every year and becoming more and more irrelevant.

It's obvious gay marriage was going to be a losing battle for them and something they'd have to drop.
And at the exact same time Democrats did the exact same thing but they did it out of the kindness of their hearts I'm sure. Lol
 

Slappy Pappy

HR Heisman
Nov 24, 2007
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Young people - Gen Z, Millenials - are massively gay tolerant, and progressive generally, while the elderly are the most conservative and bigoted. And every year 3.5m of the Republican's core Archie Bunker constituents die, while 3.5m woke Gen Zers get the vote. That's a 14m voter swing by the '24 election, and 22m+ new Gen Z voters by '28. And they vote.
 

tarheelbybirth

HR King
Apr 17, 2003
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I find it so incredibly sad that Iowa's own Chuck Grassley voted against this. I also think it's more than fair to label him a homophobic because of this.
I'm stunned that both NC senators voted to advance it.

This is what maurice wrote me in another thread. We all know his true feelings about gay people:

"mauricehawki said:

You lazy mother ****ing cheeto eating SOB government teat sucking fagggot go play with your queer friends.. not everything is rainbows and unicorn farts you just can't take it when you're proved wrong. Didn't your parents kick your ass enough when you were a child so you didn't turn out to be such a queer SOB."
The ignore button is your friend.
 

hawkland14

HR Heisman
Gold Member
Feb 26, 2013
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Young people - Gen Z, Millenials - are massively gay tolerant, and progressive generally, while the elderly are the most conservative and bigoted. And every year 3.5m of the Republican's core Archie Bunker constituents die, while 3.5m woke Gen Zers get the vote. That's a 14m voter swing by the '24 election, and 22m+ new Gen Z voters by '28. And they vote.
Geeze with those number I can’t believe a Republican would ever win another election again.
 

Slappy Pappy

HR Heisman
Nov 24, 2007
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Geeze with those number I can’t believe a Republican would ever win another election again.
For President, probably not. Republican Presidential candidates have only won the majority of votes once since 1988.

But of course these numbers are spread out nationwide, and there are still plenty of rural, racist enclaves to keep the Republican party alive for some years to come. But not forever. 56% of children under the age of 18 are brown or black.
 

mauricehawki

HR MVP
Feb 15, 2006
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For President, probably not. Republican Presidential candidates have only won the majority of votes once since 1988.

But of course these numbers are spread out nationwide, and there are still plenty of rural, racist enclaves to keep the Republican party alive for some years to come. But not forever. 56% of children under the age of 18 are brown or black.
Scary isn't. Who is going to work and provide for the next generation? Pretty soon the government teat will go dry then what. The providers will get tired of providing then what? Cause all I hear on HROT is how the big corps and farmers are republicans best friend.
 

Hoosierhawkeye

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Young people - Gen Z, Millenials - are massively gay tolerant, and progressive generally, while the elderly are the most conservative and bigoted. And every year 3.5m of the Republican's core Archie Bunker constituents die, while 3.5m woke Gen Zers get the vote. That's a 14m voter swing by the '24 election, and 22m+ new Gen Z voters by '28. And they vote.

Only problem is that this sort of stuff was said about the Millenials too and they only broke for Dems 52 to 48. In 2 to 6 years they could start breaking for Republicans.

Also I'm not sure there is going to be nearly as many Gen Zer's at least that are citizens that are aging into the vote as there are boomers dying. The boomers didn't have enough children to replace themselves, the Gen X'ers didn't have enough children to replace themselves and Millenials are not having enough children to replace themselves. Immigrants who received their citizenship are going to be making up a bigger and bigger part of the electorate. Now I havn't seen any numbers on those specific people but Hispanics are starting to abandon the Dems.

I don't see any great demographic victory for you.
 

binsfeldcyhawk2

HR Legend
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Oct 13, 2006
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Young people - Gen Z, Millenials - are massively gay tolerant, and progressive generally, while the elderly are the most conservative and bigoted.
Just because Grandpa thinks "boys can be girls and girls can be boys" or that calling mothers "birthing people" is crazy talk doesn't make him a "bigot".
 
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cigaretteman

HR King
May 29, 2001
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Only problem is that this sort of stuff was said about the Millenials too and they only broke for Dems 52 to 48. In 2 to 6 years they could start breaking for Republicans.

Also I'm not sure there is going to be nearly as many Gen Zer's at least that are citizens that are aging into the vote as there are boomers dying. The boomers didn't have enough children to replace themselves, the Gen X'ers didn't have enough children to replace themselves and Millenials are not having enough children to replace themselves. Immigrants who received their citizenship are going to be making up a bigger and bigger part of the electorate. Now I havn't seen any numbers on those specific people but Hispanics are starting to abandon the Dems.

I don't see any great demographic victory for you.
And we thought that in the '60s too. Turns our every generation produces its fair share of bigoted assholes.
 
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kc78

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Nov 25, 2002
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Geeze with those number I can’t believe a Republican would ever win another election again.
people's political views change. Many progressives, especially white progressives who move into middle class and above, become a bit more conservative as they start feeling the brunt of taxes; and especially as they get older and their formerly progressive ideas are now attacked by a new group of progressives and called archaic.
 
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gohawks50

HR Heisman
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Dec 28, 2010
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Only problem is that this sort of stuff was said about the Millenials too and they only broke for Dems 52 to 48. In 2 to 6 years they could start breaking for Republicans.

Also I'm not sure there is going to be nearly as many Gen Zer's at least that are citizens that are aging into the vote as there are boomers dying. The boomers didn't have enough children to replace themselves, the Gen X'ers didn't have enough children to replace themselves and Millenials are not having enough children to replace themselves. Immigrants who received their citizenship are going to be making up a bigger and bigger part of the electorate. Now I havn't seen any numbers on those specific people but Hispanics are starting to abandon the Dems.

I don't see any great demographic victory for you.
us-population-share-by-generation.jpg

There's not really a lot of difference in population between the Boomer, X, Millennial, and Z generations.
 
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theiacowtipper

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Scary isn't. Who is going to work and provide for the next generation? Pretty soon the government teat will go dry then what. The providers will get tired of providing then what? Cause all I hear on HROT is how the big corps and farmers are republicans best friend.
By any reason this very fact should open a pathway for a fiscally conservative socially progressive third party. But it won’t. Because of the power the democrat and Republican parties have. Especially at the state level.
 

HawkRCID

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Guessing this will be struck down….after all the constitution says nothing about marriage….so….if you want to protect it….then amend the constitution….(I think I have the MAGA Supreme Court logic down!).

Laws mean nothing.
 

mauricehawki

HR MVP
Feb 15, 2006
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By any reason this very fact should open a pathway for a fiscally conservative socially progressive third party. But it won’t. Because of the power the democrat and Republican parties have. Especially at the state level.
I don't think fiscally conservative and socially progressive fit together very well.
 

theiacowtipper

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I don't think fiscally conservative and socially progressive fit together very well.
Why? Socially progressive doesn’t necessarily mean spending money. Abortion rights. Gay marriage. Targeted short term economic assistance for the poor. Investment in schools as that provides a return on investment. There’s a lot of fiscally sound ways to further a progressive agenda.
 

Hoosierhawkeye

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Guessing this will be struck down….after all the constitution says nothing about marriage….so….if you want to protect it….then amend the constitution….(I think I have the MAGA Supreme Court logic down!).

Laws mean nothing.

Unlikely they would have to first overturn Oberfell for the states to have standing anyways.
 

mthawkeyes

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This is what maurice wrote me in another thread. We all know his true feelings about gay people:

"mauricehawki said:

You lazy mother ****ing cheeto eating SOB government teat sucking fagggot go play with your queer friends.. not everything is rainbows and unicorn farts you just can't take it when you're proved wrong. Didn't your parents kick your ass enough when you were a child so you didn't turn out to be such a queer SOB."
Got to hand it to maurice. He really loves Jesus.
 

notlongago

HR Heisman
Jul 28, 2012
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Young people - Gen Z, Millenials - are massively gay tolerant, and progressive generally, while the elderly are the most conservative and bigoted. And every year 3.5m of the Republican's core Archie Bunker constituents die, while 3.5m woke Gen Zers get the vote. That's a 14m voter swing by the '24 election, and 22m+ new Gen Z voters by '28. And they vote.
Do you think people don't get more conservative as they age? This logic has thoroughly been debunked. If it held true, the country would be voting 70% blue years ago.
 
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gohawks50

HR Heisman
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Do you think people don't get more conservative as they age? This logic has thoroughly been debunked. If it held true, the country would be voting 70% blue years ago.
Seventy years ago segregation was the law of the land. Forty years ago people joked that AIDS was the gay plague and a punishment from god. Twenty years ago people claimed gay marriage would hurt the sanctity of marriage.

Now, for the most part those ideas are dismissed by society as backwards. People don't necessarily get more conservative as they age, but society progresses and becomes more accepting of differences while older people are often still clinging to their old beliefs. We are seeing it happen right now with transgender people. I think in forty years society will look back and wonder why pro nouns and sports were such a concern in the 2020s.
 

lucas80

HR King
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Jan 30, 2008
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Just because Grandpa thinks "boys can be girls and girls can be boys" or that calling mothers "birthing people" is crazy talk doesn't make him a "bigot".
Well, it does when Grandpa Grassley has spent 60 years in office trying to make sure people who aren't like him don't enjoy the full benefits the rest of society enjoys.
 

RileyHawk

HR Legend
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Aug 21, 2002
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If it should "terrify" anyone, it's extreme progressives. Just another bullet out of their chamber they can use to villify the opposition.
That "bullet" was put away until Clarence Thomas put it back in the chamber. Progressives, Democrats and Independents will be happy to put this away again which is why there is a legislative bill to do so.
 
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