Presidential contests always bring national attention to closely divided Wisconsin. The past two were decided by less than one percentage point, with Donald Trump eking out a 0.77 percent win in 2016 and Joe Biden notching an even narrower 0.63 percent victory four years ago. This year, the Badger State is likely to produce another electoral-vote squeaker.
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But there’s another big election going on in Wisconsin this year, one that hasn’t gotten its fair share of attention elsewhere.
Democrats, for the first time in more than a decade, have the potential to loosen — or even break — the iron grip that Republicans have held on the legislature through aggressive gerrymandering. If they do, Wisconsin could actually begin to be governed like the narrowly divided state that it is.
With real competition in many places for the first time in a long time, money is pouring in; some races are expected to draw more than $1 million on each side.
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All of this could happen thanks to a redrawn set of district maps that Gov. Tony Evers (D) signed into law in February. “Wisconsin is not a red state or a blue state — we’re a purple state, and I believe our maps should reflect that basic fact,” Evers said in a statement he issued when he signed the new maps. “The people should get to choose their elected officials, not the other way around.”
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Republicans in the legislature supported the new maps, largely because they feared the state Supreme Court, where a liberal majority had recently replaced a conservative one, would impose a worse deal on them.
As state Sen. Van H. Wanggaard (R) put it: “Republicans were not stuck between a rock and hard place. It was a matter of choosing to be stabbed, shot, poisoned or led to the guillotine. We chose to be stabbed, so we can live to fight another day.”
The new maps have already made democracy healthier in Wisconsin: This year, voters will actually be able to choose between two major party candidates in 82 of the assembly districts, compared with only 73 districts being contested two years ago. At one point in recent years, the political situation had become so uncompetitive in Wisconsin that the two parties offered a choice of candidates in fewer than half the assembly districts across the state.
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With all 99 assembly seats on the ballot this year, Democrats are expected to make significant gains, though political handicappers are doubtful they can flip the 15, while holding all their incumbents, that it would take to win a majority.
“But it’s possible. It hasn’t been possible in a decade,” says John D. Johnson, a political scientist who studies public opinion at Marquette University Law School. “It’s going to feel like a victory, no matter what.”
The odds are steeper against gaining a majority in the state senate, where Republicans hold a two-thirds supermajority, because only 16 of its 33 seats are up this year. But if Democrats pick up even a few, they could be positioned to take control in 2026.
The maps are a much fairer representation of an evenly divided electorate. As things currently stand, the Wisconsin legislature, and especially powerful assembly speaker Robin Vos, have “governed as if this is a deep-red state even though it’s as purple as it gets,” says veteran Wisconsin journalist Dan Shafer, who writes a popular online opinion journal known as the Recombobulation Area.
For instance, during his first term as governor, Evers called a special session of the legislature to deal with gun violence prevention, including proposals supported by 8 out of 10 Wisconsinites to expand background checks and temporarily remove firearms from people who have been deemed dangerous. The Republican leadership “gaveled in” the session as required by law and adjourned it less than a minute later.
The same thing happened when Evers called sessions to consider joining 38 other states that have expanded their Medicaid programs under the Affordable Care Act and to repeal Wisconsin’s near-total abortion ban, passed in 1849, which once again became the law with the 2022 overturning of Roe v. Wade.
This kind of stalemate didn’t always exist. As recently as 2009, Democrats held control of the executive branch and both houses of the legislature in Wisconsin. But in 2010, Republicans swept all three and later, under Gov. Scott Walker, began the process of making the state one of the most gerrymandered in the country.
At a time when the country itself is so deeply polarized, it might be too much to expect that fairer elections can help breach the divide. But Wisconsin is making a start, and the rest of the country should be watching to see what happens next.
Sign up for Shifts, an illustrated newsletter series about the future of work
But there’s another big election going on in Wisconsin this year, one that hasn’t gotten its fair share of attention elsewhere.
Democrats, for the first time in more than a decade, have the potential to loosen — or even break — the iron grip that Republicans have held on the legislature through aggressive gerrymandering. If they do, Wisconsin could actually begin to be governed like the narrowly divided state that it is.
With real competition in many places for the first time in a long time, money is pouring in; some races are expected to draw more than $1 million on each side.
ADVERTISING
All of this could happen thanks to a redrawn set of district maps that Gov. Tony Evers (D) signed into law in February. “Wisconsin is not a red state or a blue state — we’re a purple state, and I believe our maps should reflect that basic fact,” Evers said in a statement he issued when he signed the new maps. “The people should get to choose their elected officials, not the other way around.”
Follow Karen Tumulty
Republicans in the legislature supported the new maps, largely because they feared the state Supreme Court, where a liberal majority had recently replaced a conservative one, would impose a worse deal on them.
As state Sen. Van H. Wanggaard (R) put it: “Republicans were not stuck between a rock and hard place. It was a matter of choosing to be stabbed, shot, poisoned or led to the guillotine. We chose to be stabbed, so we can live to fight another day.”
The new maps have already made democracy healthier in Wisconsin: This year, voters will actually be able to choose between two major party candidates in 82 of the assembly districts, compared with only 73 districts being contested two years ago. At one point in recent years, the political situation had become so uncompetitive in Wisconsin that the two parties offered a choice of candidates in fewer than half the assembly districts across the state.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin..._magnet-op2024elections _inline_collection_19
With all 99 assembly seats on the ballot this year, Democrats are expected to make significant gains, though political handicappers are doubtful they can flip the 15, while holding all their incumbents, that it would take to win a majority.
“But it’s possible. It hasn’t been possible in a decade,” says John D. Johnson, a political scientist who studies public opinion at Marquette University Law School. “It’s going to feel like a victory, no matter what.”
The odds are steeper against gaining a majority in the state senate, where Republicans hold a two-thirds supermajority, because only 16 of its 33 seats are up this year. But if Democrats pick up even a few, they could be positioned to take control in 2026.
The maps are a much fairer representation of an evenly divided electorate. As things currently stand, the Wisconsin legislature, and especially powerful assembly speaker Robin Vos, have “governed as if this is a deep-red state even though it’s as purple as it gets,” says veteran Wisconsin journalist Dan Shafer, who writes a popular online opinion journal known as the Recombobulation Area.
For instance, during his first term as governor, Evers called a special session of the legislature to deal with gun violence prevention, including proposals supported by 8 out of 10 Wisconsinites to expand background checks and temporarily remove firearms from people who have been deemed dangerous. The Republican leadership “gaveled in” the session as required by law and adjourned it less than a minute later.
The same thing happened when Evers called sessions to consider joining 38 other states that have expanded their Medicaid programs under the Affordable Care Act and to repeal Wisconsin’s near-total abortion ban, passed in 1849, which once again became the law with the 2022 overturning of Roe v. Wade.
This kind of stalemate didn’t always exist. As recently as 2009, Democrats held control of the executive branch and both houses of the legislature in Wisconsin. But in 2010, Republicans swept all three and later, under Gov. Scott Walker, began the process of making the state one of the most gerrymandered in the country.
At a time when the country itself is so deeply polarized, it might be too much to expect that fairer elections can help breach the divide. But Wisconsin is making a start, and the rest of the country should be watching to see what happens next.
