The contrast between Rep. Tim Ryan, the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate in Ohio, and his opponent, the Peter Thiel-funded, Trump critic-turned-sycophant J.D. Vance, could not be more stark. And so far, that is bad news for Republicans in a state they should be winning by a mile.
Sign up for a weekly roundup of thought-provoking ideas and debates
To review: Ryan is a blue-collar, native Ohioan running on kitchen-table issues and promising to return manufacturing to his state. Vance is a millionaire Yale Law School-educated author and venture capitalist. It turns out he’s also a rotten candidate. Republicans are in high panic over Vance’s terrible fundraising, as well as his gaffes on abortion and domestic abuse. Ryan seems like the only Democrat who might win the state; Vance might be the only Republican capable of losing it.
Kyle Kondik of Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball is changing the race from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican.” He explains, “The ‘Hillbilly Elegy’ author has been outraised, outspent, and outmaneuvered all summer by Rep. Tim Ryan … who has been using his superior funding to both hammer Vance and bolster himself.” Kondik adds: “Our understanding is that private polling in the race is good for Ryan and that an internal poll released several weeks ago by Ryan’s campaign showing him leading 48%-45% may actually understate his advantage compared to unreleased surveys on both sides.”
ADVERTISING
Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund is running a rescue mission with a $28 million ad buy, a sign Republicans understand that Vance is in trouble. While this might be a summer blip for Ryan, Kondik advises that “we also have to allow for the possibility that the internal polls we’ve heard about are correct and that Vance actually is in a good deal of trouble.”
One reason Vance might face tough sledding is the post-Dobbs phenomenon. “Since the Dobbs decision on [June 24], women have out-registered men by an 11 pt margin. In 2018, new registrants were slightly more women than men (.75 pt margin) and in 2020 they were more men (1.5 pt margin),” Tom Bonier of political data firm TargetSmart tweeted on Tuesday. “They are more likely to be Dems. Ohio doesn’t have party registration, so we model party.” He explains: “The women new registrants in Ohio in the ’20 cycle were modeled to be +5 GOP. The women new registrants since Dobbs? They are +15 Dem.” They are also younger and more urban — meaning they are more likely to vote Democratic.
The GOP can only plug so many leaks in the dam. Senate candidates Herschel Walker in Georgia, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, Blake Masters in Arizona and Sen. Ron Johnson in Wisconsin (who wants to sunset Medicare and says he was only involved in the 2020 coup for a “couple of seconds”) are all favorites of former president Donald Trump, all radically out of step with voters on abortion, and all running cruddy campaigns. Republicans will have to choose whom to cut loose and whom to rescue.
Meanwhile, supposedly vulnerable incumbent Democratic Sens. Mark Kelly in Arizona and Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada don’t appear to be in much trouble. This is a classic case of one party’s map expanding and the other’s shrinking.
Certainly, there are more than two months to go in the midterm campaign. Red states such as Ohio might revert to their historic preferences. But at this point, Ryan is running the best race Democrats could hope for in a Senate cycle that once looked promising for Republicans and now looks like a Trump-provoked belly-flop.
Sign up for a weekly roundup of thought-provoking ideas and debates
To review: Ryan is a blue-collar, native Ohioan running on kitchen-table issues and promising to return manufacturing to his state. Vance is a millionaire Yale Law School-educated author and venture capitalist. It turns out he’s also a rotten candidate. Republicans are in high panic over Vance’s terrible fundraising, as well as his gaffes on abortion and domestic abuse. Ryan seems like the only Democrat who might win the state; Vance might be the only Republican capable of losing it.
Kyle Kondik of Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball is changing the race from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican.” He explains, “The ‘Hillbilly Elegy’ author has been outraised, outspent, and outmaneuvered all summer by Rep. Tim Ryan … who has been using his superior funding to both hammer Vance and bolster himself.” Kondik adds: “Our understanding is that private polling in the race is good for Ryan and that an internal poll released several weeks ago by Ryan’s campaign showing him leading 48%-45% may actually understate his advantage compared to unreleased surveys on both sides.”
ADVERTISING
Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund is running a rescue mission with a $28 million ad buy, a sign Republicans understand that Vance is in trouble. While this might be a summer blip for Ryan, Kondik advises that “we also have to allow for the possibility that the internal polls we’ve heard about are correct and that Vance actually is in a good deal of trouble.”
One reason Vance might face tough sledding is the post-Dobbs phenomenon. “Since the Dobbs decision on [June 24], women have out-registered men by an 11 pt margin. In 2018, new registrants were slightly more women than men (.75 pt margin) and in 2020 they were more men (1.5 pt margin),” Tom Bonier of political data firm TargetSmart tweeted on Tuesday. “They are more likely to be Dems. Ohio doesn’t have party registration, so we model party.” He explains: “The women new registrants in Ohio in the ’20 cycle were modeled to be +5 GOP. The women new registrants since Dobbs? They are +15 Dem.” They are also younger and more urban — meaning they are more likely to vote Democratic.
The GOP can only plug so many leaks in the dam. Senate candidates Herschel Walker in Georgia, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, Blake Masters in Arizona and Sen. Ron Johnson in Wisconsin (who wants to sunset Medicare and says he was only involved in the 2020 coup for a “couple of seconds”) are all favorites of former president Donald Trump, all radically out of step with voters on abortion, and all running cruddy campaigns. Republicans will have to choose whom to cut loose and whom to rescue.
Meanwhile, supposedly vulnerable incumbent Democratic Sens. Mark Kelly in Arizona and Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada don’t appear to be in much trouble. This is a classic case of one party’s map expanding and the other’s shrinking.
Certainly, there are more than two months to go in the midterm campaign. Red states such as Ohio might revert to their historic preferences. But at this point, Ryan is running the best race Democrats could hope for in a Senate cycle that once looked promising for Republicans and now looks like a Trump-provoked belly-flop.
