By Christian Caryl
Op-ed Editor/International
Today at 1:35 p.m. EST
So, President Putin, you’ve finally done what the world long feared you would do: You have launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. You haven’t made a secret of your intentions. You want to put an end to the existence of an independent and democratic Ukraine, and make sure that it will never join the West. And you want to guarantee that Moscow will once again be in a position — as it was throughout the life of the Soviet empire — to run things in Kyiv. You want to be able, once again, to tell Ukrainians who they are, what their history is and what their values should be.
Opinions to start the day, in your inbox. Sign up.
You have made a terrible mistake. Many people will give their lives for this act of folly. But of one thing I am sure: Your assault in Ukraine will ultimately lead to the very outcomes you hoped to avoid.
Your 2014 annexation of Crimea and the proxy war in Donbas that you launched that same year succeeded in making Ukrainians more patriotic, more pro-European, and more protective of their statehood and their freedoms than ever before. Before 2014, support for NATO membership in Ukraine was lukewarm; since then, Russia’s actions have convinced many doubters that seeking better relations with the alliance is a must.
In my own dealings with Ukrainians, I have seen little evidence that they hate Russians, despite your efforts to convince the world they do. But over the past few years, Ukrainians (and the rest of the world) have seen more and more clearly the crass divide between your protestations of pan-Slavic brotherhood and the cynicism and corruption of your regime. Your speeches in recent days, in which you depicted Ukrainians as citizens of a half-imaginary country whose fate should be determined by the Kremlin, will only deepen the rupture between Russians and Ukrainians. Your insults sit deep.
Ukrainians now know what to expect from you and your regime. You can try to seize power through force and fear and lies — but you have already lost the war of ideas.
You will probably succeed in scoring military victories through the sheer force of superior numbers, but you will be able to stay in Ukraine only by bayonet — and that means you won’t be able to stay for long. It could be that you understand that you have neither the forces nor the will to maintain a long-term occupation of the country — but even if you try to terrorize Ukrainians into accepting a pro-Russian leader as your proxy, that effort will not endure, either. Ukrainians have been through that before. They won’t be willing to go back.
Ukrainians will never accept rule from Moscow again. From this day forward, Ukrainians will redouble their efforts to join the West. You can deny their nationhood all you want — but you will never succeed in telling Ukrainians who they are. Only they can do that.
By your actions, President Putin, you have confirmed Ukraine’s pro-Western choice. You have given the biggest boost yet to Ukrainian independence and self-awareness. You have done more for this cause than the most fervent Ukrainian nationalist ever could.
The big unanswered question is how your own people will react to this war of choice. When you annexed Crimea, many Russians supported you. But all-out war with Ukraine is different. Are Russians prepared to send their sons and daughters to die for the sake of subduing a country that has not attacked them? You’ve been trying to convince them that Ukraine is populated with Nazi hordes, eager to kill — but such fictions wear thin with time. The people know that this is your war, not Russia’s. You’re the one who started it, and you’re the one whose name will remain linked with it.
Some prominent Russians have publicly criticized your plans for war — despite knowing the high price they are likely to pay for speaking out — and others have already protested your assault on Ukraine. One wonders how long you can sustain the lies once the body bags begin to arrive.
You have launched this new war, President Putin, and it is indeed a frightening thing to behold. So I say this without any sense of triumph: It is a war you can’t win.
Op-ed Editor/International
Today at 1:35 p.m. EST
So, President Putin, you’ve finally done what the world long feared you would do: You have launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. You haven’t made a secret of your intentions. You want to put an end to the existence of an independent and democratic Ukraine, and make sure that it will never join the West. And you want to guarantee that Moscow will once again be in a position — as it was throughout the life of the Soviet empire — to run things in Kyiv. You want to be able, once again, to tell Ukrainians who they are, what their history is and what their values should be.
Opinions to start the day, in your inbox. Sign up.
You have made a terrible mistake. Many people will give their lives for this act of folly. But of one thing I am sure: Your assault in Ukraine will ultimately lead to the very outcomes you hoped to avoid.
Your 2014 annexation of Crimea and the proxy war in Donbas that you launched that same year succeeded in making Ukrainians more patriotic, more pro-European, and more protective of their statehood and their freedoms than ever before. Before 2014, support for NATO membership in Ukraine was lukewarm; since then, Russia’s actions have convinced many doubters that seeking better relations with the alliance is a must.
In my own dealings with Ukrainians, I have seen little evidence that they hate Russians, despite your efforts to convince the world they do. But over the past few years, Ukrainians (and the rest of the world) have seen more and more clearly the crass divide between your protestations of pan-Slavic brotherhood and the cynicism and corruption of your regime. Your speeches in recent days, in which you depicted Ukrainians as citizens of a half-imaginary country whose fate should be determined by the Kremlin, will only deepen the rupture between Russians and Ukrainians. Your insults sit deep.
Ukrainians now know what to expect from you and your regime. You can try to seize power through force and fear and lies — but you have already lost the war of ideas.
You will probably succeed in scoring military victories through the sheer force of superior numbers, but you will be able to stay in Ukraine only by bayonet — and that means you won’t be able to stay for long. It could be that you understand that you have neither the forces nor the will to maintain a long-term occupation of the country — but even if you try to terrorize Ukrainians into accepting a pro-Russian leader as your proxy, that effort will not endure, either. Ukrainians have been through that before. They won’t be willing to go back.
Ukrainians will never accept rule from Moscow again. From this day forward, Ukrainians will redouble their efforts to join the West. You can deny their nationhood all you want — but you will never succeed in telling Ukrainians who they are. Only they can do that.
By your actions, President Putin, you have confirmed Ukraine’s pro-Western choice. You have given the biggest boost yet to Ukrainian independence and self-awareness. You have done more for this cause than the most fervent Ukrainian nationalist ever could.
The big unanswered question is how your own people will react to this war of choice. When you annexed Crimea, many Russians supported you. But all-out war with Ukraine is different. Are Russians prepared to send their sons and daughters to die for the sake of subduing a country that has not attacked them? You’ve been trying to convince them that Ukraine is populated with Nazi hordes, eager to kill — but such fictions wear thin with time. The people know that this is your war, not Russia’s. You’re the one who started it, and you’re the one whose name will remain linked with it.
Some prominent Russians have publicly criticized your plans for war — despite knowing the high price they are likely to pay for speaking out — and others have already protested your assault on Ukraine. One wonders how long you can sustain the lies once the body bags begin to arrive.
You have launched this new war, President Putin, and it is indeed a frightening thing to behold. So I say this without any sense of triumph: It is a war you can’t win.
