Perspective — B1G Points Per Game Departed

[Raptorpeeps]

FWIW...PPG departed from last season by team.

Minnesota — All of them (lol)
Iowa — 51
Michigan — 48
Penn State — 48
Wisconsin — 47
Nebraska — 39
Maryland — 34
Michigan State — 33
Illinois — 33
Rutgers — 30
Indiana — 29
Ohio State — 26
Northwestern — 15
Purdue — 4

Executive summary: Except for Purdue, every team has to replace significant points. Some teams, like Michigan, Ohio State and Maryland seem well-positioned to do so via recruiting/portal work. Most others still have significant questions. With 54 ppg to make up with our current personnel, I don’t see Iowa finishing anywhere close to 3d place this year. Minnesota and Penn State are almost certainly totally screwed.

 

[BBHawk]

This tells me what I pretty much knew, that outside of a handful of teams, trying to predict the rest is a crapshoot. So many variables.

 

[BoilerN]

FWIW...PPG departed from last season by team.

Minnesota — All of them (lol)
Iowa — 54
Michigan — 48
Penn State — 48
Wisconsin — 47
Nebraska — 39
Maryland — 34
Michigan State — 33
Illinois — 33
Rutgers — 30
Indiana — 29
Ohio State — 26
Northwestern — 15
Purdue — 3.9

Executive summary: Except for Purdue, every team has to replace a significant amount of points. Some teams, like Michigan, Ohio State and Maryland seem well-positioned to do so via recruiting/portal work. Most others still have significant questions. With 54 ppg to make up with our current personnel, I don’t see Iowa finishing anywhere close to 3d place this year. Minnesota and Penn State are almost certainly totally screwed.

Read this and thought, Purdue didn't lose any points? Forgot Wheeler transferred.

 

[2432Hawk]

Also with those points are minutes and shots. So somebody is going to get more minutes and shots.... and well points.

For Iowa the trade-off may be that we'll be less efficient on offense, but can we make up for it on defense?

 

[Raptorpeeps]

Also with those points are minutes and shots. So somebody is going to get more minutes and shots.... and well points.

For Iowa the trade-off may be that we'll be less efficient on offense, but can we make up for it on defense?

I don't see "a trade off" situation here. I see the loss of 2 NBA players, Nunge and Frederick, and really no one who can be reasonably expected to effectively replace them.

Sure, Keegan is going to get more points. Not 54 more. Rebraka? He'll get some points. Pat? Sure....

Who else? We'll see a lot of zone on O, and we are going to get abused inside on D.

 

[perryhawk]

I don't see "a trade off" situation here. I see the loss of 2 NBA players, Nunge and Frederick, and really no one who can be reasonably expected to effectively replace them.

Sure, Keegan is going to get more points. Not 54 more. Rebraka? He'll get some points. Pat? Sure....

Who else? We'll see a lot of zone on O, and we are going to get abused inside on D.

I think this is a matter of semantics….EVERY season a coach should adapt to the strengths of that specific roster. Offensive and defensive philosophy might not change, but depth, athleticism, experience, etc etc do change. Consequently a coach has to “trade off” or adjust to the strengths and weaknesses of that team.

An easy example is that this team and players for the upcoming season should generally be faster in running the court….in addition this team is generally made up of guys more able to press and run….

Will this team shoot, score like last year’s team; that would be a miracle.

Will this team be better able to defend, run, and rebound better than last year? They should be and they need to be…..will we win as many games. I would bet against it.

In two years however I think this team could be as good or better than last year.

 

[Raptorpeeps]

Will this team be better able to defend, run, and rebound better than last year?

No.

 

[Raptorpeeps]

In two years however I think this team could be as good or better than last year.

Words...

In 2 years Keegan won't be here. Who will be our NPOY 2 years from now? Who will be our second NBA draft pick 2 years from now?

 

[fivecardstud14]

No.

You're really down on this years time if you don't think they'll be as good on D as last years team.

 

[Raptorpeeps]

You're really down on this years time if you don't think they'll be as good on D as last years team.

How many seasons out of 11 has Fran had a good defense? I'll look at our kenpom average later but whatever it is, if you think we'll be above it, I just don't see any reason that should be true.

Better rebounding? Not seeing it.

 

[fivecardstud14]

How many seasons out of 11 has Fran had a good defense? I'll look at our kenpom average later but whatever it is, if you think we'll be above it, I just don't see any reason that should be true.

Better rebounding? Not seeing it.

Yeah I know, but I'm only talking about last season. They were 209th in defensive efficiency & 241st in OPP PPG. I think they will be better than that this season.

 

[Raptorpeeps]

Yeah I know, but I'm only talking about last season. They were 209th in defensive efficiency & 241st in OPP PPG. I think they will be better than that this season.

Our average over 11 seasons is 98th. Bottom half of the league most years. Fran's best team '13 finished 24th (NIT team). That would be nice and probably even necessary in order to be competitive.

I like Perkins and Keegan. Who else on this team is capable of playing above average D? Joe T? Haven't seen it yet. Connor? Lol. Jbo? Double lolz.

I hope they prove me wrong but ... Not seeing it.

 

[perryhawk]

Words...

In 2 years Keegan won't be here. Who will be our NPOY 2 years from now? Who will be our second NBA draft pick 2 years from now?

In 2 years Keegan MIGHT not be here. Let’s hope it goes that well.

As you know…..having the NPOY is not required in order to be better than last year’s team…could we have more future NBA players on this or next year’s team? We could.

You and I have discussed issues before…we both know your intelligent and take a view of things that falls on the negative side. That might be the right/smart way to go to avoid disappointment…but it’s not nearly as enjoyable from my perspective.

 

[fivecardstud14]

Our average over 11 seasons is 98th. Bottom half of the league most years. Fran's best team '13 finished 24th (NIT team). That would be nice and probably even necessary in order to be competitive.

I like Perkins and Keegan. Who else on this team is capable of playing above average D? Joe T? Haven't seen it yet. Connor? Lol. Jbo? Double lolz.

I hope they prove me wrong but ... Not seeing it.

A lineup of Toussaint/Perkins/P. McCaffery/Murray/Murray would definitely be better. May get hurt on the glass but not having Bohannon/C. McCaffery/Garza out there for 30 minutes a game will definitely help the D.

 

[perryhawk]

No.

This is part of the fun…..we shall see what happens!

 

[perryhawk]

A lineup of Toussaint/Perkins/P. McCaffery/Murray/Murray would definitely be better. May get hurt on the glass but not having Bohannon/C. McCaffery/Garza out there for 30 minutes a game will definitely help the D.

I think that group could be really good rebounders….long and athletic. They just have to have the mentality that they want to get every board and then the aggressiveness to go do it.

 

[fivecardstud14]

I think that group could be really good rebounders….long and athletic. They just have to have the mentality that they want to get every board and then the aggressiveness to go do it.

True. If they all crash the glass that does hurt fast break opportunities, but after that Oregon game I'm looking forward to this years team. Don't need to see the Hawks get run off the floor like that ever again. They were picking on Bohannon & Garza.

 

[Raptorpeeps]

A lineup of Toussaint/Perkins/P. McCaffery/Murray/Murray would definitely be better. May get hurt on the glass but not having Bohannon/C. McCaffery/Garza out there for 30 minutes a game will definitely help the D.

Good post. Not convinced about “definitely“ yet but I like it.

I will say this, a lot of D is ‘want to’ (much more so than offense anyway). Pride and effort make a difference. We’ll see.

 

[perryhawk]

Good post. Not convinced about “definitely“ yet but I like it.

I will say this, a lot of D is ‘want to’ (much more so than offense anyway). Pride and effort make a difference. We’ll see.

100% agreement with the following:

a lot of D is ‘want to’ (much more so than offense anyway). Pride and effort make a difference.

This will take both the coaches and players having the belief/understanding that this is exactly what it will take to have a legitimate shot at post season….offensive rebounding was awesome under Tom Davis….that’s what we need from this group.

 

[BirdistheWord]

I don't see "a trade off" situation here. I see the loss of 2 NBA players, Nunge and Frederick, and really no one who can be reasonably expected to effectively replace them.

Sure, Keegan is going to get more points. Not 54 more. Rebraka? He'll get some points. Pat? Sure....

Who else? We'll see a lot of zone on O, and we are going to get abused inside on D.

Our perimeter D and transition O will be significantly better, not saying it makes up for 54 points but it will help.

 

[Hawkstrat]

I don't think anyone expects Iowa to be as good as they were last season, but if a few things go right they can compete for a tournament berth. After losing Garza and Joe, you can't complain about a season like that.

 

[Legend12]

FWIW...PPG departed from last season by team.

Minnesota — All of them (lol)
Iowa — 54
Michigan — 48
Penn State — 48
Wisconsin — 47
Nebraska — 39
Maryland — 34
Michigan State — 33
Illinois — 33
Rutgers — 30
Indiana — 29
Ohio State — 26
Northwestern — 15
Purdue — 4

Executive summary: Except for Purdue, every team has to replace significant points. Some teams, like Michigan, Ohio State and Maryland seem well-positioned to do so via recruiting/portal work. Most others still have significant questions. With 54 ppg to make up with our current personnel, I don’t see Iowa finishing anywhere close to 3d place this year. Minnesota and Penn State are almost certainly totally screwed.

Just for the sake of accuracy....Iowa is losing 50.6 PPG next season.

 

[combes]

FWIW...PPG departed from last season by team.

Minnesota — All of them (lol)
Iowa — 54
Michigan — 48
Penn State — 48
Wisconsin — 47
Nebraska — 39
Maryland — 34
Michigan State — 33
Illinois — 33
Rutgers — 30
Indiana — 29
Ohio State — 26
Northwestern — 15
Purdue — 4

Executive summary: Except for Purdue, every team has to replace significant points. Some teams, like Michigan, Ohio State and Maryland seem well-positioned to do so via recruiting/portal work. Most others still have significant questions. With 54 ppg to make up with our current personnel, I don’t see Iowa finishing anywhere close to 3d place this year. Minnesota and Penn State are almost certainly totally screwed.

I’m pretty confident that Illinois can replace the points. Ayo will be missed, of course, for his amazing last second shooting, but the overall points can be replaced. Curbelo will make a jump to the first or second best player on the team. His average should go up quite a bit. Add Plummer who averaged 14 in the Pac12 and was the second best three point shooter in that league. Add three top 100 recruits. Frazier probably scores more instead of deferring to Ayo. And Austin Hutcherson is likely the third best player on the team after Kofi and Curbelo. He is the best athlete and shooter on the team. After battling injuries last year, how fast will he get up to speed? But he is currently dominating workouts. Health is the key.

 

[Raptorpeeps]

Just for the sake of accuracy....Iowa is losing 50.6 PPG next season.

Thanks. Corrected.

 

[Raptorpeeps]

I’m pretty confident that Illinois can replace the points. Ayo will be missed, of course, for his amazing last second shooting, but the overall points can be replaced. Curbelo will make a jump to the first or second best player on the team. His average should go up quite a bit. Add Plummer who averaged 14 in the Pac12 and was the second best three point shooter in that league. Add three top 100 recruits. Frazier probably scores more instead of deferring to Ayo. And Austin Hutcherson is likely the third best player on the team after Kofi and Curbelo. He is the best athlete and shooter on the team. After battling injuries last year, how fast will he get up to speed? But he is currently dominating workouts. Health is the key.

Underwood seems to have worked the portal pretty well with Payne and Plummer. Plus 3 4* recruits that meet needs. Hate to say it but he's getting the job done so far.

I think the OA loss will hurt you though. Losing Schutt will hurt.

 

[Raptorpeeps]

I really want to hear from Big Eddy. Wisconsin doesn't look to be in great shape but I could be missing something.

 

[RocknRollface]

Our average over 11 seasons is 98th. Bottom half of the league most years. Fran's best team '13 finished 24th (NIT team). That would be nice and probably even necessary in order to be competitive.

I like Perkins and Keegan. Who else on this team is capable of playing above average D? Joe T? Haven't seen it yet. Connor? Lol. Jbo? Double lolz.

I hope they prove me wrong but ... Not seeing it.

So if I understand correctly the argument is that Iowa will be bad on defense because Fran teams are always bad on defense but not good on offense despite always being good on offense?

Thats poor logic.

The players matter way more than the coach.

Reality is Fran teams have been good on defense when there have been good defenders getting the majority of the playing time. That has only happened during the Woodbury Gessel years. Other than that Fran has never played good defensive players as a unit.

He will have no choice but to primarily play good defenders next year.

 

[RocknRollface]

How many seasons out of 11 has Fran had a good defense? I'll look at our kenpom average later but whatever it is, if you think we'll be above it, I just don't see any reason that should be true.

Better rebounding? Not seeing it.

3

The reasons are there, just need to be honest with yourself.

 

[RocknRollface]

A lineup of Toussaint/Perkins/P. McCaffery/Murray/Murray would definitely be better. May get hurt on the glass but not having Bohannon/C. McCaffery/Garza out there for 30 minutes a game will definitely help the D.

Won't get hurt on the glass.

Keegan was by far the best rebounder last year and there is no reason not to expect Kris will be similar.

 

[RocknRollface]

Our average over 11 seasons is 98th. Bottom half of the league most years. Fran's best team '13 finished 24th (NIT team). That would be nice and probably even necessary in order to be competitive.

I like Perkins and Keegan. Who else on this team is capable of playing above average D? Joe T? Haven't seen it yet. Connor? Lol. Jbo? Double lolz.

I hope they prove me wrong but ... Not seeing it.

What were you watching then?

He has a huge impact defensively.

Ulis is also a solid defender.

 

[Raptorpeeps]

What were you watching then?

He has a huge impact defensively.

Ulis is also a solid defender.

I was watching an average defender make a lot of mistakes and never come close to locking down anyone in any game I saw him play ever.

What were you watching?

Quickness is a necessary but insufficient. We are not automatically going to be a better defensive team and better in transition offense because Joe is quick.

His minutes were limited for a reason.

"Ulis is also a solid defender."

I don't know what you're basing this opinion on but I'll take your word for it, I guess. Does "solid" mean above average in the big ten? I hope so.

 

[CO_hawk]

Didn't we play Perkins defensively on Ayo?

 

[RocknRollface]

I was watching an average defender make a lot of mistakes and never come close to locking down anyone in any game I saw him play ever.

What were you watching?

Quickness is a necessary but insufficient. We are not automatically going to be a better defensive team and better in transition offense because Joe is quick.

His minutes were limited for a reason.

"Ulis is also a solid defender."

I don't know what you're basing this opinion on but I'll take your word for it, I guess. Does "solid" mean above average in the big ten? I hope so.

Watch closer and you'll see a guy who gets his hands on a ton of balls, almost always keeps his man in front of him and is very determined to not be screened.

He does make some mistakes like doubling the post too aggressively and will occasionally go under a screen but thats the exception.

You're the only person I've encountered who wont admit JT is a pretty good defender.

Implying his minutes were limited because of anything to do with defense is clearly not being honest.

Yes, Iowa will automatically be a better defensive team just by having Perkins, JT, Ulis and Kris Murray on the floor.

Granted, Fran might fvck it up by playing Connor and JBO too often so you may ultimately be right.

But the potential was there if Fran didn't have the options to screw it up.

 

[unoHawkeye]

What was Iowa, #1 or 2 in points scored per game last year? Not disputing that we lose a ton of offensive firepower, and there were multiple games that Weezy/Garza basically carried us. % of PPG would give better context of what needs to be replaced though

 

[Raptorpeeps]

Watch closer and you'll see a guy who gets his hands on a ton of balls, almost always keeps his man in front of him and is very determined to not be screened.

He does make some mistakes like doubling the post too aggressively and will occasionally go under a screen but thats the exception.

You're the only person I've encountered who wont admit JT is a pretty good defender.

Implying his minutes were limited because of anything to do with defense is clearly not being honest.

Yes, Iowa will automatically be a better defensive team just by having Perkins, JT, Ulis and Kris Murray on the floor.

Granted, Fran might fvck it up by playing Connor and JBO too often so you may ultimately be right.

But the potential was there if Fran didn't have the options to screw it up.

I don't think he's an above average defender. Can he be? Yes, he definitely has the physical tools. I don't dispute that.

Will it even matter? Sounds like a stupid question but honestly, I think it depends a lot on the rotation Fran settles into. If we're seeing a lot of Connor and JBo, it probably won't.

 

[Ronman]

True. If they all crash the glass that does hurt fast break opportunities, but after that Oregon game I'm looking forward to this years team. Don't need to see the Hawks get run off the floor like that ever again. They were picking on Bohannon & Garza.

Garza picked back with his 36 points and nine boards.

 

[HawkLogic]

True. If they all crash the glass that does hurt fast break opportunities, but after that Oregon game I'm looking forward to this years team. Don't need to see the Hawks get run off the floor like that ever again. They were picking on Bohannon & Garza.

Weezy got burned and so did Fredrick and CMAC. Yeah Jbo got burned and wasn't scoring, but the entire starting 5 stunk defensively. At least Garza was scoring machine and made up for his lack of quicks on defense.

This year's team may be 0.500 in weak B1G. Better defensivley but how much. Until the coach puts an emphasis on defense and pulls players for giving up points and divy's playing time based on defense, Iowa will never be more than a team that cans score alot but never is competitor for B1G title or BTT title or more than a 1st round win in NCAA.

 

[perryhawk]

I don't think he's an above average defender. Can he be? Yes, he definitely has the physical tools. I don't dispute that.

Will it even matter? Sounds like a stupid question but honestly, I think it depends a lot on the rotation Fran settles into. If we're seeing a lot of Connor and JBo, it probably won't.

Would you admit that he’s better defensively in a matchup with a quick PG than JBO was last year?

 

[RocknRollface]

I don't think he's an above average defender. Can he be? Yes, he definitely has the physical tools. I don't dispute that.

Will it even matter? Sounds like a stupid question but honestly, I think it depends a lot on the rotation Fran settles into. If we're seeing a lot of Connor and JBo, it probably won't.

Only thing Joe needs to be a lock down guy is play more disciplined and under control. Take less chances.

Its all mental, physically his hands and feet are tremendous.

I agree with the second part.

If Fran is worried more about assist to TO ratio than getting stops its a wasted season.

The defense will still be better but to have a decent season it will need to be drastically better and thats not going to happen with the assist to TO guys out there.

 

[Raptorpeeps]

Would you admit that he’s better defensively in a matchup with a quick PG than JBO was last year?

haha

Of course but I'm talking about above-average compared to other guards in the league not JBo and Connor.