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Pete Buttigieg will follow the Obama Playbook. He'll win Iowa & take that Momentum to become...

Franisdaman

Franisdaman

HB King
Nov 3, 2012
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Franisdaman said:
the next President of the United States.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
A politician that is even keeled, moderate, thoughtful and articulate? My thought is he is a much needed breath of fresh air.

Pete stands a good chance of riding Iowa momentum early through the primary season, but unlike Obama he has yet to find a way to connect with minority voters after the issues in South Bend. If he can do that then he becomes a national front runner.

If it’s Pete vs. Trump in the general election then I would place a very large wager that Pete wins the presidency.
 
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hawkeyetraveler said:
A politician that is even keeled, moderate, thoughtful and articulate? My thought is he is a much needed breath of fresh air.

Pete stands a good chance of riding Iowa momentum early through the primary season, but unlike Obama he has yet to find a way to connect with minority voters after the issues in South Bend. If he can do that then he becomes a national front runner.

If it’s Pete vs. Trump in the general election then I would place a very large wager that Pete wins the presidency.
Click to expand...

The country is ready for a First Laddy. And most thought it was gonna be Bill Clinton!
 
hawkeyetraveler said:
A politician that is even keeled, moderate, thoughtful and articulate? My thought is he is a much needed breath of fresh air.

Pete stands a good chance of riding Iowa momentum early through the primary season, but unlike Obama he has yet to find a way to connect with minority voters after the issues in South Bend. If he can do that then he becomes a national front runner.

If it’s Pete vs. Trump in the general election then I would place a very large wager that Pete wins the presidency.
Click to expand...

I don't really see any hostility from PoC regarding Pete, I think a lot of it is drummed up by supporters of rivals far to his left, who are starting to feel pretty uneasy about what's happening. This is certainly an over-generalization but I think black voters in particular do stay loyal to people who've been around a long time and generally favor them. Even Obama did not actually lead hardly any South Carolina polls until AFTER the Iowa caucuses.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State..._2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries
 
There is potential that moderate republicans would vote for him but it all depends on his message after he secures the nomination. If he swings back to the center I can see him taking Some rhinos and independents away from Trump.

I’m a little scared what the far right will do though. I can easily see some false allegations thrown out there and it will be disgusting to have to watch a good person like Pete to have to defend himself over stupid accusations
 
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ihhawk said:
There is potential that moderate republicans would vote for him but it all depends on his message after he secures the nomination. If he swings back to the center I can see him taking Some rhinos and independents away from Trump.

I’m a little scared what the far right will do though. I can easily see some false allegations thrown out there and it will be disgusting to have to watch a good person like Pete to have to defend himself over stupid accusations
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It won’t bother this guy. He’s heard it all before. He is as cool as the other side of the pillow and is the only person who can stand up to Trump and beat him at his own game...
 
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ihhawk said:
There is potential that moderate republicans would vote for him but it all depends on his message after he secures the nomination. If he swings back to the center I can see him taking Some rhinos and independents away from Trump.

I’m a little scared what the far right will do though. I can easily see some false allegations thrown out there and it will be disgusting to have to watch a good person like Pete to have to defend himself over stupid accusations
Click to expand...

The far right will smear any Democrat regardless the candidate.

I will then look at the POS the far right supports and the hypocrisy they exhibit and my head will explode.
 
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BeepBeepInMyJeep said:
I don't really see any hostility from PoC regarding Pete, I think a lot of it is drummed up by supporters of rivals far to his left, who are starting to feel pretty uneasy about what's happening. This is certainly an over-generalization but I think black voters in particular do stay loyal to people who've been around a long time and generally favor them. Even Obama did not actually lead hardly any South Carolina polls until AFTER the Iowa caucuses.
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There doesn't have to be any hostility. They're telling you they want someone else.

Everyone is all giddy that Pete is leading Iowa. But it's 41 delegates make up 2% of the needed 1990. And at that, nobody would win even 1/3rd of the allocated delegates.

Based on current polling, allocation coming out of Iowa should look something like this:
Buttigieg - 13
Warren - 10
Biden - 9
Sanders - 9

Conversely, South Carolina (the first primary south of the Mason-Dixon) currently projects out:
Biden - 35
Warren - 19
Buttigieg - 0
Sanders - 0

Biden is doing well in Super Tuesday states. And that's a whole lot of delegates.

The way I see it right now, unless there are drastic polling swings, the only way Biden will lose is if this all goes to a brokered convention and Warren and Sanders combine delegates. And I'm not sure that will happen. Neither one of them would accept a deal where they take the Veep slot to the other's POTUS run.
 
damayason said:
The far right will smear any Democrat regardless the candidate.

I will then look at the POS the far right supports and the hypocrisy they exhibit and my head will explode.
Click to expand...
Biden is too old and will end up getting shredded, Bernie and Warren are too radical - nobody wants to pay for their programs that don’t help enough people and no other Dems have enough going for them to make a dent. Pete is the logical choice.
 
cmanole said:
Biden is too old and will end up getting shredded, Bernie and Warren are too radical - nobody wants to pay for their programs that don’t help enough people and no other Dems have enough going for them to make a dent. Pete is the logical choice.
Click to expand...
Biden is too old? He's 76. Sanders is 78 and Warren is 70.

But I don't disagree with you about your description of Sanders and Warren. Even though they know it will never pass Congress, they have their sights dead set on campaigning on M4A. And that is a loser for both of them.

Butigieg doesn't do with minority voters. And that will doom him. There are some big states where he is projected to get exactly 0 delegates. Most notably California.
 
theiacowtipper said:
African Americans are some of the most socially conservative people you will ever meet. Especially on gay rights. I think you might see them stay home rather than vote.
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I know he has said he wouldn't, but if Obama so much as hints at an endorsement of Biden, it's game over.
 
cmanole said:
It won’t bother this guy. He’s heard it all before. He is as cool as the other side of the pillow and is the only person who can stand up to Trump and beat him at his own game...
Click to expand...
I’m sure Pete can handle it....not sure about the voters. I can easily see some false sexual assault claims come up.
 
ihhawk said:
I’m sure Pete can handle it....not sure about the voters. I can easily see some false sexual assault claims come up.
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Those wouldn't work against Pete.

Unlike the current resident of the WH, people (even those who won't vote for Pete) believe he is a man of character.
 
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hawkeyetraveler said:
A politician that is even keeled, moderate, thoughtful and articulate? My thought is he is a much needed breath of fresh air.

Pete stands a good chance of riding Iowa momentum early through the primary season, but unlike Obama he has yet to find a way to connect with minority voters after the issues in South Bend. If he can do that then he becomes a national front runner.

If it’s Pete vs. Trump in the general election then I would place a very large wager that Pete wins the presidency.
Click to expand...

As to your point regarding minority voters, he was on a Sunday show a few weeks ago and the host asked him how he plans on connecting with religious minority groups given his sexual orientation. It will be interesting to see how all of that plays out.
 
theiacowtipper said:
African Americans are some of the most socially conservative people you will ever meet. Especially on gay rights. I think you might see them stay home rather than vote.
Click to expand...

This is a serious concern with Pete. On the other hand, Donald Trump being his opponent might be the only way he can overcome that.
 
BioHawk said:
This is a serious concern with Pete. On the other hand, Donald Trump being his opponent might be the only way he can overcome that.
Click to expand...
He has to get through the primaries first. And I just don't see that as doable for him. Disclaimer: At this point in time.
 
Hawk It Up said:
He has to get through the primaries first. And I just don't see that as doable for him. Disclaimer: At this point in time.
Click to expand...

I don't know if anybody has it locked up yet. If Pete can get minorities to vote for him he will be the Democrats strongest candidate. He's the "centrist" that the moderates can get behind but the progressive wing will also strongly support. We'll know how viable he is after South Carolina I guess.

Religious conservatives will come out to vote against him, but that's true for any democrat. Probably at least 80% of those idiots still think Obama was a Muslim terrorist sympathizer. It doesn't take very many bullshit facebook memes to get them riled up against somebody. The most easily manipulated group of people in America. Just look at how much money they piss away to televangelists.
 
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BioHawk said:
I don't know if anybody has it locked up yet. If Pete can get minorities to vote for him he will be the Democrats strongest candidate. He's the "centrist" that the moderates can get behind but the progressive wing will also strongly support. We'll know how viable he is after South Carolina I guess.
Click to expand...
Granted, most voters don't know much about candidates pasts. But primary voters tend to be more informed. I think that is safe to say.

That said, I (as do many others) have a problem with Buttigieg playing this "centrist" role now. He is an opportunist. He began a center shift when it became convenient. And Biden would be wise to beat him over his head with things like this tweet, particularly now that Pete has shifted paths on single payer.

 
Hawk It Up said:
Granted, most voters don't know much about candidates pasts. But primary voters tend to be more informed. I think that is safe to say.

That said, I (as do many others) have a problem with Buttigieg playing this "centrist" role now. He is an opportunist. He began a center shift when it became convenient. And Biden would be wise to beat him over his head with things like this tweet, particularly now that Pete has shifted paths on single payer.

View embedded media
Click to expand...

I think he truly wants Medicare for all but he is a realist compared to an opportunist. He obviously has a good head on his shoulders and understands the path to the White House is not being extreme. I think he understands that going full left or all out right is what is dividing this nation. I don’t see him being an opportunist at all but is actually seeing the problem in this country and making an effort to fix it.
 
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Hawk It Up said:
Granted, most voters don't know much about candidates pasts. But primary voters tend to be more informed. I think that is safe to say.

That said, I (as do many others) have a problem with Buttigieg playing this "centrist" role now. He is an opportunist. He began a center shift when it became convenient. And Biden would be wise to beat him over his head with things like this tweet, particularly now that Pete has shifted paths on single payer.

View embedded media
Click to expand...

Maybe he should, yet he's not. That says more about Biden as a candidate than Pete. Although, it's not that hard to defend that tweet. You just have to say that you support Medicare for All, but unless enough people that support it can get elected to Congress, it isn't a realistic policy goal. So, instead I favor any bill that provides healthcare for everyone and can reach the President's desk. For some reason, none of these candidates are campaigning on the realities of getting bills through Congress. It would seem to me that reminding their voters that they need to do more than just support the Presidential candidates would be beneficial for everyone.
 
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Hawk It Up said:
Granted, most voters don't know much about candidates pasts. But primary voters tend to be more informed. I think that is safe to say.

That said, I (as do many others) have a problem with Buttigieg playing this "centrist" role now. He is an opportunist. He began a center shift when it became convenient. And Biden would be wise to beat him over his head with things like this tweet, particularly now that Pete has shifted paths on single payer.

View embedded media
Click to expand...
Maybe he suspects, as I do, that they best way to ensure that the largest number of people have access to high-quality care is via a "MediCare" for all approach. But like me, he also understands the political barriers to this are high, but a public option approach is more palatable to many and will get us there eventually.
 
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mthawkeyes said:
Maybe he suspects, as I do, that they best way to ensure that the largest number of people have access to high-quality care is via a "MediCare" for all approach. But like me, he also understands the political barriers to this are high, but a public option approach is more palatable to many and will get us there eventually.
Click to expand...
Ima just leave this here. He has, in the past, said he supports single payer. It isn't realistic and he needs to man up and tell people why he changed his mind. Just about a month ago he attacked Warren on the debate stage over M4A. And she punched back.

Buttigieg also appeared to defend single-payer health insurance in a February 2019 interview on MSNBC's "Morning Joe."

"What is Medicare for All? It's a compromise," Buttigieg said then. "In the U.K., you've got national health care. That would be the true left-wing position. The true right-wing position is free for all, all corporate, and the compromise position is a single-payer system where you have private doctors but a public payer."
 
Hawk It Up said:
Ima just leave this here. He has, in the past, said he supports single payer. It isn't realistic and he needs to man up and tell people why he changed his mind. Just about a month ago he attacked Warren on the debate stage over M4A. And she punched back.

Buttigieg also appeared to defend single-payer health insurance in a February 2019 interview on MSNBC's "Morning Joe."

"What is Medicare for All? It's a compromise," Buttigieg said then. "In the U.K., you've got national health care. That would be the true left-wing position. The true right-wing position is free for all, all corporate, and the compromise position is a single-payer system where you have private doctors but a public payer."
Click to expand...
Politics is the art of the possible. I think that Buttigieg is smart enough and realistic enough to understand how to get there.
 
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BrunoMars420 said:
The majority of black voters are in the south where he wouldn’t win any way. I think it is more important to focus on the swing states.
Click to expand...
He isn't even registering in places like California.

There are only so many "swing" states. An they don't have enough delegates to push Pete over the edge. And what does a swing state have to do with race?

He's going to come out of Iowa and NH with a slim (probably single digit) lead in delegates) and then end up behind by more than that after NV and SC. He doesn't even register in either of state's polls. (Down 21 to Biden in NV and 25 in SC). He stands strong chance of being shut out in those two states.
 
Hawk It Up said:
He isn't even registering in places like California.

There are only so many "swing" states. An they don't have enough delegates to push Pete over the edge. And what does a swing state have to do with race?

He's going to come out of Iowa and NH with a slim (probably single digit) lead in delegates) and then end up behind by more than that after NV and SC. He doesn't even register in either of state's polls. (Down 21 to Biden in NV and 25 in SC). He stands strong chance of being shut out in those two states.
Click to expand...

So if he wins Iowa and has that huge boost of momentum after Feb 2nd, do you think he won’t register in these states? His trajectory all over the place is only up
 
Hawk It Up said:
He isn't even registering in places like California.

There are only so many "swing" states. An they don't have enough delegates to push Pete over the edge. And what does a swing state have to do with race?

He's going to come out of Iowa and NH with a slim (probably single digit) lead in delegates) and then end up behind by more than that after NV and SC. He doesn't even register in either of state's polls. (Down 21 to Biden in NV and 25 in SC). He stands strong chance of being shut out in those two states.
Click to expand...

Pete’s goal in Iowa and NH is for credibility rather than delegates. If he does poorly in those two states he has no chance. If he does well, he can fight elsewhere.
 
BrunoMars420 said:
So if he wins Iowa and has that huge boost of momentum after Feb 2nd, do you think he won’t register in these states? His trajectory all over the place is only up
Click to expand...
No. I don't. At least not to a level that is going to win him the nomination. He is leading in Iowa because it is lily white. He doesn't even register in even slightly more diverse states. I can't, for the life of me, understand why that escapes you.

I could be wrong. And he would (at this point in time) be my second choice behind Biden, and would vote for him in the general. I would hold my nose and pull the lever for Warren if she is the nom, but I refuse to give Sanders my vote. I'll show up on election day, but only to vote for down-ballot races.
 
Franisdaman said:
the next President of the United States.

Thoughts?

The latest Iowa poll (Des Moines Register and CNN, Published Nov 16):

25%: Mayor Pete is the the first choice for 25% of would-be Democratic caucusgoers.

16%: Elizabeth Warren

15%: Joe Biden

15%: Bernie Sanders

06%: Amy Klobuchar!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ( @naturalmwa )

LINK: http://www.startribune.com/pete-but...nner-in-new-iowa-poll/565049112/?refresh=true
Click to expand...
Dem leadership are likely licking their chops at the possibility of a mayor Pete presidency. Talk about a rubber stamp candidate.
 
Hawk It Up said:
Ima just leave this here. He has, in the past, said he supports single payer. It isn't realistic and he needs to man up and tell people why he changed his mind. Just about a month ago he attacked Warren on the debate stage over M4A. And she punched back.

Buttigieg also appeared to defend single-payer health insurance in a February 2019 interview on MSNBC's "Morning Joe."

"What is Medicare for All? It's a compromise," Buttigieg said then. "In the U.K., you've got national health care. That would be the true left-wing position. The true right-wing position is free for all, all corporate, and the compromise position is a single-payer system where you have private doctors but a public payer."
Click to expand...

Compare his path with Warren's, who's dancing this way and that every day now on her health plans. I'll go with his.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...89b4e0-08ac-11ea-924a-28d87132c7ec_story.html
 
Hawk It Up said:
No. I don't. At least not to a level that is going to win him the nomination. He is leading in Iowa because it is lily white. He doesn't even register in even slightly more diverse states. I can't, for the life of me, understand why that escapes you.

I could be wrong. And he would (at this point in time) be my second choice behind Biden, and would vote for him in the general. I would hold my nose and pull the lever for Warren if she is the nom, but I refuse to give Sanders my vote. I'll show up on election day, but only to vote for down-ballot races.
Click to expand...

I can’t for the life of me understand how you don’t understand momentum. Where was Pete B in Iowa a month or two ago? It’s naive to think since he isn’t registering now he won’t register later. Idk if you notice but look at Biden’s complete downfall in Iowa. With more exposure, more debates, and more ads in these states as their primaries get closer you will see a big swing from Biden to Pete B as you are seeing in Iowa. Save this post and if I’m wrong bring it up so I can eat crow but I have been right on Pete B and what has been happening so far in Iowa and soon to be nationally.
 
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