Petras vs. Stanley - 1st Year

[kwinks1]

Do we think Petras can best Stanley's first year numbers? (assuming a full schedule)

Petras inheriting compared to Stanley:
WR - better
RB - wash
Line - better?
TE - not two 1st rounders in the room, but still good

Stanley 1st year numbers:

PCT: 55.8
Yds: 2432
TD: 26
INT: 6
QBR: 135
Wins: 8 wins

It's near impossible to say, since we haven't seen Spencer play much but a fun discussion topic since we have nothing else to discuss.

I'll take Petras in PCT, Yds & Wins (9). I see a lot of TD's coming from Goodson and Sargent in the redzone that Stanley was able to get to TE's in 2017.

 

[Rifler]

Petras will have more quality targets than Stanley did his first year....

 

[RomanHawk]

I'm not interested in comparitive stats. IMO, quick, optimum decision-making, anticipation, and playing best when the situation is most critical are the difference makers. The mental aspects at QB are huge.

 

[712hawkeye402]

I’ll take confidence, QB IQ, and other non metrics . Stanley never developed in that area and hurt Iowa time and time again.

 

[TJHawkeye]

Petras will be more accurate and his receivers more proficient in getting separation. That means bigger numbers all around.

 

[Logon]

I think accuracy overall will be the biggest opportunity. Not just in completion %, but putting the ball on the receiver so they can get YAC. The tougher part for us average fans to see is how he processes information and is able to make changes at the line. I think Stanley did very well in this area.

 

[EpenesaEpenesa]

Stanley had a solid first year. Everyone remembers Wadley at Iowa State, but Stanley carried the offense that day. Multiple 3rd down completions in huge spots in his first road start

 

[Hawkeyes4Life32]

I’ll take confidence, QB IQ, and other non metrics . Stanley never developed in that area and hurt Iowa time and time again.

I don't think Stanley's QB IQ was ever an issue. His problems were usually due to him putting too much pressure on himself and not playing relaxed

 

[EpenesaEpenesa]

I don't think Stanley's QB IQ was ever an issue. His problems were usually due to him putting too much pressure on himself and not playing relaxed

Joe Boo’s rum would’ve been beneficial pregame

 

[West CO Hawk]

Petras will have longer completed receptions.
That equals more yards at the end of year.
2. It's hard to beat having fewer than 6 interception.

 

[Quintana]

Joe Boo’s rum would’ve been beneficial pregame

 

[desihawk]

Petras will have higher percent completions, about same yardage, much fewer TDs, but significantly more INTs. Despite this if rest of the O (particularly TGood) carries the load Petras may even receive the appreciation that was denied to Stanley at a similar stage.

 

[Hawkeye Marching Band]

Is very bad to steal Jobu's rum. Very bad.

 

[kceasthawk]

Petras will be more accurate and his receivers more proficient in getting separation. That means bigger numbers all around.

I continue to be shocked how everyone seems convinced that Petras will be more accurate coming in. There is ZERO evidence of what he'll be as a college QB, ZERO. He certainly may be, but there is no data to support what seems like a foregone conclusion to most. And please don't anyone say because he looked better in the spring game. Lets see him, against Michigan, OSU, PSU, or hell ISU when the heat is own and then we'll have something to gauge his performance.

 

[scotthawk1964]

Petras should have a better first season, considering he has much better WR's, a very good TE, TGood toting the ball and with Cronk and Jackson at his tackles will have a good OL. SO, I see better completion ratio, similiar TD totals and roughly the same Int's....I base this on nothing, but Petras was a 4* coming out of Cali, so my gut says he will at no worse equal Nate's first year. If not, Get Deuce in the lineup.

 

[Irwin Fletcher10]

Stanley had a solid first year. Everyone remembers Wadley at Iowa State, but Stanley carried the offense that day. Multiple 3rd down completions in huge spots in his first road start

I agree, but I also think the Hawks could have put almost 70 points on the board that day if not for multiple overthrows downfield with the receiver wide open

 

[Logon]

While I agree there is no college evidence on accuracy, I do believe this is an opportunity - we will see if it actually happens. This is not an attempt to knock Stanley, it was just never his strength. His IQ in running the offense, in my opinion was his biggest strength.

In his senior year in HS, Stanley's completion % was 48.6% (175 attempts). Petras was 60.6% (618 attempts) with a much higher number of attempts his senior year. For his career in HS, he was 58.8%.

So if I was looking for evidence that this could be an area we see improvement over time, this would lead me to believe, there may be a chance.

 

[not_mantiteo]

Petras should have a better first season, considering he has much better WR's, a very good TE, TGood toting the ball and with Cronk and Jackson at his tackles will have a good OL. SO, I see better completion ratio, similiar TD totals and roughly the same Int's....I base this on nothing, but Petras was a 4* coming out of Cali, so my gut says he will at no worse equal Nate's first year. If not, Get Deuce in the lineup.

As long as our guards are better. Our tackles and center are never a concern. Our guards have been turnstiles the past few years.

 

[RomanHawk]

I continue to be shocked how everyone seems convinced that Petras will be more accurate coming in. There is ZERO evidence of what he'll be as a college QB, ZERO. He certainly may be, but there is no data to support what seems like a foregone conclusion to most. And please don't anyone say because he looked better in the spring game. Lets see him, against Michigan, OSU, PSU, or hell ISU when the heat is own and then we'll have something to gauge his performance.

I think you miss the point. Instead of Petras, let's say it's Joe Smo. Since Joe is considered likely to be the starter, it can be assumed that he has at least average accuracy for a P5 QB. That in itself, gives us an advantage over last year.

 

[not_mantiteo]

I think you miss the point. Instead of Petras, let's say it's Joe Smo. Since Joe is considered likely to be the starter, it can be assumed that he has at least average accuracy for a P5 QB. That in itself, gives us an advantage over last year.

Whoa there. You're not supposed to criticize Stanley on this board.

Petras will also have been in this program for 3 years when he plays. He was also a fantastic recruit out of high school and was rated a bit higher than Stanley. Obviously Stanley kept his job his entire tenure, but Kirk seems to value seniority over talent. You can see this in cases like Tyler Goodson not getting a lot of playing time until the later half of the season, but there are other times as well.

 

[TJHawkeye]

Petra's was in the top class in CA at Marin Catholic. He broke all Jared Goff's records in HS, 4157 yards, 50 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. He has been working against a very good defense in his time at Iowa. His 50 to 2 td to int ratio shows he makes good decisions. So although he hasn't started against B1G competition, the evidence is there.

 

[pharmdfd]

If he can’t beat Stanley’s deep ball accuracy he wins in my book.

 

[Walleye70]

But he is missing all this workout time with this virus

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Do we think Petras can best Stanley's first year numbers? (assuming a full schedule)

Petras inheriting compared to Stanley:
WR - better
RB - wash
Line - better?
TE - not two 1st rounders in the room, but still good

Stanley 1st year numbers:

PCT: 55.8
Yds: 2432
TD: 26
INT: 6
QBR: 135
Wins: 8 wins

It's near impossible to say, since we haven't seen Spencer play much but a fun discussion topic since we have nothing else to discuss.

I'll take Petras in PCT, Yds & Wins (9). I see a lot of TD's coming from Goodson and Sargent in the redzone that Stanley was able to get to TE's in 2017.

As you are suggesting and another poster explicitly stated ... Petras is entering into a better situation than Stanley was facing back in 2017 in terms of the quality of his receiving corps.

In '17, Fant was a TR SO and Hockenson was a RS FR ... so even though that TE duo developed into a pair of first rounders ... they weren't "there" yet at that point. In '20, I think that we're all optimistic about what LaPorta is capable of doing ... however, while we're excited about the overall "potential" of the TE room ... the guys there are still awful "green."

An understated attribute of Wadley was that he was arguably our best receiving RB since Albert Young ... and possibly even Ronnie Harmon (he obviously wasn't Ronnie's equal - but he was impressive, all the same). Are the '20 RBs as good in the receiving game? I'm not certain ... but Goodson and Sargent, at least, have resumes that suggest that its within their arsenal.

One of the greatest contrasting groups is the WR corps (obviously). In '17, VandeBerg was still not 100% from his foot issues. We otherwise primarily relied upon a walk-on transfer in Easley and two TR FR in Ihmir and Brandon.

However, here are a few other factors that may play to the advantage of Petras in '20 ....

- Stanley was protected by 2 freshmen OTs in '17. In contrast, the most likely scenario in '20 has Petras protected by a 5th year SR in Jackson (and multi-year starter) at LT and either a pretty experienced 4th year JR in Kallenberger or a veteran SR in Cronk at RT. The interior OL in '17 wasn't too bad ... largely powered by Welsh and Daniels. However, I feel like the '20 interior OL stacks up pretty well compared to the '17 group.

- Stanley had to learn a new O going from the '16 season to the '17 season. In contrast, Petras will benefit from continuity of scheme.

- Lastly, not only did Stanley have to learn a new O (and the new language that goes with it) ... but the Hawks also essentially had an all-new staff on the offensive side of the ball too. Presumably the staff is now better at what they've been doing now too.

 

[H4wkfan4life]

Do we think Petras can best Stanley's first year numbers? (assuming a full schedule)

Petras inheriting compared to Stanley:
WR - better
RB - wash
Line - better?
TE - not two 1st rounders in the room, but still good

Stanley 1st year numbers:

PCT: 55.8
Yds: 2432
TD: 26
INT: 6
QBR: 135
Wins: 8 wins

It's near impossible to say, since we haven't seen Spencer play much but a fun discussion topic since we have nothing else to discuss.

I'll take Petras in PCT, Yds & Wins (9). I see a lot of TD's coming from Goodson and Sargent in the redzone that Stanley was able to get to TE's in 2017.

I can tell you with those first round tight ends Stanley got more chances at touchdown passes inside the red zone than any Iowa quarterback I can ever remember so don't expect that to get touched.

 

[nattybumpo]

Petras will likely have better numbers in his first year as starter than Stanley because he has:

1) More experience in passing offense in HS than Stanley.
2) Third year in program vs Stanley's second year.
3) Much better WR talent, depth, and experience.
4) Better OL.

First year starters typically do well under Ferentz. This is a push compared to Stanley, but it should remind us to expect Petras to be at least average for a first year Iowa QB. I'll be surprised if he does't complete roughly 59% of his passes for 2600 yds, 20-22 TD, and 8-10 ints.

 

[newmexhawk]

The big question everyone is missing is if Petras can get 4-5 yards on a QB sneak, consistently?

 

[madmustang4]

To gauge this years QB production I need to know if the O line is going to be better or worse or the same as last year.
Who’s going to be on both sides of Linderbaum.

 

[scotthawk1964]

As long as our guards are better. Our tackles and center are never a concern. Our guards have been turnstiles the past few years.

Well, the guards showed up vs. USC, so hopefully that is a sign of things to come.

 

[iafan44]

I agree, but I also think the Hawks could have put almost 70 points on the board that day if not for multiple overthrows downfield with the receiver wide open

How many did he over throw that game?

 

[iafan44]

I think you miss the point. Instead of Petras, let's say it's Joe Smo. Since Joe is considered likely to be the starter, it can be assumed that he has at least average accuracy for a P5 QB. That in itself, gives us an advantage over last year.

Stanley was plenty accurate last year. Guard play did him no favors a lot of the time.

 

[Rustys Dad]

I think Petras is going to rock it. This is his third year in the program (yes, no Spring ball this year) … I think we are really going to like him. With the weapons around him … I'm excited as hell about the potential with our passing game … So many fun options to choose from... A far cry from where we were sitting a few years ago at the WR position …

 

[kceasthawk]

I think you miss the point. Instead of Petras, let's say it's Joe Smo. Since Joe is considered likely to be the starter, it can be assumed that he has at least average accuracy for a P5 QB. That in itself, gives us an advantage over last year.

Outstanding, but I still don't see any proof that we know what he'll do when the bullets are flying. What you have is conjecture, and what you HOPE will happen, and my thoughts have nothing to do with Stanley. I know one thing for sure, and you can get your tablets out and carve this in stone. At some point this season Petras will make some bad plays or we'll lose a game and he won't play really well. Instantly the most popular guy on the team will be Padilla or Hogan, because thats just how it works here...

 

[grayhair81]

To gauge this years QB production I need to know if the O line is going to be better or worse or the same as last year.
Who’s going to be on both sides of Linderbaum.

Banwart/Schott on one side and Britt/Kallenberger/Ince on the other. If Banwart returns to pre-injury form, that is a huge win for the line. The problem at guard has not so much been the people playing it but the blitz-pickup schemes. Everyone who has played RG instantly doubles the A gap defender with the center and leaves the B gap wide open for a delayed blitz. Wisconsin especially has feasted on it the past few years.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

I don't think Stanley's QB IQ was ever an issue. His problems were usually due to him putting too much pressure on himself and not playing relaxed

Well, that and either rifling a ball when he needed touch, or putting too much touch on- oh lol who are we kidding.....Stanley's passes always started in 3rd gear and could shift all the way to 6th if needed......and sometimes even when it wasn't.

 

[NevadaHawk]

I just want Petras to be the best player he can be regardless of whether his stats are better than Stanley's. I don't see it as a contest between the two of them.

 

[RomanHawk]

Outstanding, but I still don't see any proof that we know what he'll do when the bullets are flying. What you have is conjecture, and what you HOPE will happen, and my thoughts have nothing to do with Stanley. I know one thing for sure, and you can get your tablets out and carve this in stone. At some point this season Petras will make some bad plays and he won't play really well. Instantly the most popular guy on the team will be Padilla or Hogan, because thats just how it works here...

I agree that he'll have a game or two where he doesn't play well. We just have to hope the rest of the team is clicking in those games.

I think "the second team QB" syndrome is a little unfair to the fans and has largely been fomented by the staff. We have had our share of poor QB performances over the years, but the absolute fewest snaps taken by backups.
Many fans aren't saying the backup is better, but rather "does it make any sense to not gave someone else at least a look?"

In many cases, it has not made any sense.

 

[Hawkeye Marching Band]

I agree, but I also think the Hawks could have put almost 70 points on the board that day if not for multiple overthrows downfield with the receiver wide open

We'll have to go look at a recording of the game. He was 27-41 (66%) for 333 yards, 5 TDs and 0 picks. True sophomore in his first start on the road and second overall. Really, what's not to love about that game.

 

[desihawk]

The big question everyone is missing is if Petras can get 4-5 yards on a QB sneak, consistently?

Not meant as a knock but no way Petras is going be the machine Stanley was at the sneak last year. BUT Stanley took a full 4 years to get there. Until 2019, he was downright bad at 3/4th and short costing us a some critical games.

 

[H4wkfan4life]

To gauge this years QB production I need to know if the O line is going to be better or worse or the same as last year.
Who’s going to be on both sides of Linderbaum.

I think better but we're not comparing to last year.