###Pitt Win Looking Better Each Week###

[MTHawkeyes43]

Pitt just keeps on winning, which makes the Iowa win look that much better.

 

[JoeScaz]

Congrats!.. Us Pitt fans are excited and happy with Coach Narduzzi... never easy to win at GT... We have to keep rolling, and you do too!

 

[JStandefer]

Congrats!.. Us Pitt fans are excited and happy with Coach Narduzzi... never easy to win at GT... We have to keep rolling, and you do too!

I hope he stays at Pitt. He is a great coach. We have to keep him out of the B1G

 

[BondHawk]

Kill two birds with one stone and beat Notre Dame in a few weeks.

 

[TS568]

Pitt has beaten a 2-5 Georgie Tech, a 2-4 Virginia and a 3-4 Virginia Tech and Youngstown State each by one score. I don't know if beating them at home by a field goal will be the resume builder it takes to get into the top 4. The good news is Pitt doesn't play Florida State and the rest of the ACC is so bad that 10-2 should be just about a given and that will qualify as a good win by record. I think if the Hawks win out (13-0) there's no way they get left out of a playoff and the chances of going 12-0 right now are way north of 50%.

 

[mthawkeyes]

Pitt has beaten a 2-5 Georgie Tech, a 2-4 Virginia and a 3-4 Virginia Tech and Youngstown State each by one score. I don't know if beating them at home by a field goal will be the resume builder it takes to get into the top 4. The good news is Pitt doesn't play Florida State and the rest of the ACC is so bad that 10-2 should be just about a given and that will qualify as a good win by record. I think if the Hawks win out (13-0) there's no way they get left out of a playoff and the chances of going 12-0 right now are way north of 50%.

I don't know about way north of 50%.
Do your own probabilities for week-to-week wins, but here's mine:
Maryland: 90%
@ Indiana: 80%
Minnesota: 80%
Purdue: 90%
@ Nebraska: 60%
Multiply them together = 31%

Going undefeated is hard, even if you're a heavy favorite most of the time.

 

[GunnerHawk]

Winning in the BIG is tough, especially on the road. Nebraska is a very good team. 4 loses by 11 points, they are doubly tough at home. Indiana can throw the ball around, losing after being up 25 shows poor judgment throwing the ball around when your up. Indiana plays us tough at their place.

Maryland on paper should be our easiest but who knows what will happen to them with an interim ouch. Minnesota is always a big rivalry game so never easy. That leaves Purdue who played Wisconsin fairly tough at their place.

I'm sure this team will take it one game at a time. I know my butt will be in Kinnock.

Go Hawks!

 

[Hawked]

Need Nebby to get bowl eligible before the Iowa game. Do not need them to have any added motivation for our game.

 

[terrehawk]

Who on that remaining schedule can stop the run? That will be the main concern for any of them coming in to that week.

Nebraska has the worst pass defense in the country. Plus, they gave up 300 yds passing to Leidner yesterday.

 

[Birdmanil]

I don't know about way north of 50%.
Do your own probabilities for week-to-week wins, but here's mine:
Maryland: 90%
@ Indiana: 80%
Minnesota: 80%
Purdue: 90%
@ Nebraska: 60%
Multiply them together = 31%

Going undefeated is hard, even if you're a heavy favorite most of the time.

When you do the average like you're supposed to do it's 80%. When you're multiplying them together all you're saying is 60% of 90% of 80% and so on, each game should be independent of each other. But I still say it's 50/50. These schools all have big ten talent and we have to continue to execute as we gain more publicity each week

 

[mthawkeyes]

When you do the average like you're supposed to do it's 80%. When you're multiplying them together all you're saying is 60% of 90% of 80% and so on, each game should be independent of each other. But I still say it's 50/50. These schools all have big ten talent and we have to continue to execute as we gain more publicity each week

That's why you multiply them. The outcome of the Maryland game has no bearing on the outcome of the Indiana game.

 

[20Hawks14]

That's why you multiply them. The outcome of the Maryland game has no bearing on the outcome of the Indiana game.

Take each games imaginary win probability and multiple them be 20% (1 of 5 games left) then add them all up. Its basic physics.

 

[ANYCHawk]

I don't know about way north of 50%.
Do your own probabilities for week-to-week wins, but here's mine:
Maryland: 90%
@ Indiana: 80%
Minnesota: 80%
Purdue: 90%
@ Nebraska: 60%
Multiply them together = 31%

Going undefeated is hard, even if you're a heavy favorite most of the time.

 

[jsbailey324]

That's why you multiply them. The outcome of the Maryland game has no bearing on the outcome of the Indiana game.

Correct. The formula is as followed:
P(Wm and Wi and Wp and Wm and Wn).
You multiply them together seeing as they are independent events.

 

[mthawkeyes]

You simply multiply each estimated win probability to calculate the probability of all events occurring.
.9 x .8 x .8 x .9 x .6 = .31 = 31%
If you don't get this, you may have been an English major.

 

[MTHawkeyes43]

Pitt ranked #25 in most recent poll.