POLL: Predicting the Iowa-PSU 2019-20 NCAAs Finish - PART III

[slushhead]

HR Installment #3 for the NCAA TOURNAMENT as we are now just 6 weeks from March . . .

Part I (10/28) had Iowa winning with 57% of the vote (n = 49). The most common margin of victory was 5.5-10 pts.

Part II (12/29) had PSU winning with 82% of the vote (n = 97). The most common margin of victory was still 5.5-10 pts.

Sentiment jumped a few weeks
ago, and the Hawkeyes are kicking ass and taking names. Will they keep rolling in March?

 

[Hawky42]

Meh lets we got 7 more dual meets and big tens first

I'll wait it out

 

[slushhead]

As with the dual poll, I ran some numbers today on some hypothetical outcomes for Nationals. Holding Berge out of the lineup, I did a best-case, worst-case, and middle-of-the-road scenario for each team.

PSU Best-case: PSU 150, Iowa 113.5
Iowa Best-case: Iowa 198.5, PSU 66.5
Middle: Iowa 157.5, PSU 117

In the PSU best-case (also the Iowa worst-case), each team had 7 AAs. PSU had 5 finalists w/ 4 champs, plus a 3rd and a 5th, whereas Iowa had 1 champ, a 3rd, two 4ths, a 5th, and two 6ths.

In the Iowa best-case (PSU worst-case), where PSU wheels fall off and all of Iowa's guys reach their potential, I had PSU with 4 AAs (two 3rds, a 4th, and a 6th) and Iowa with 10 AAs (five 1sts, a 2nd, two 3rds, a 4th, and a 6th).

My middle-of-the-road plays it a bit conservatively for PSU and gives (IMO) nearly full credit to Iowa, so perhaps it's not quite down the middle. Anyway, it gives PSU 7 AAs (two 1sts, a 2nd, three 4ths, and a 7th), whereas Iowa pulls off the hat-trick and gets 10 AAs (one 1st, three 2nds, two 3rds, a 4th, a 5th, and two 7ths).

I want to learn more about where a couple of the PSU guys stack up before giving them too much benefit of the doubt. Hence, my leans could change in the next two editions of the poll.

 

[slushhead]

Last call on this vote, as the poll
closes ~5:30 PM.