It’s fair to say no pollster in America was more beloved this month than J. Ann Selzer, who oversees the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll. At least among Iowa Democrats.
“Sunday’s Iowa poll, from the legendary Ann Seltzer, showing Vice President Kamala Harris within 4% of Donald Trump, has sent a jolt of electricity through myself and so many Iowa Democrats,” House Minority Leader Jennifer Konfrst said in an email to supporters.
“Just three months ago, President Biden trailed Donald Trump in Iowa by 18 points. With just 50 days until Election Day, Harris has nearly closed that gap and has proved that Iowa is a PURPLE STATE, through and through,” Konfrst said.
Legendary? Wow.
It has been so long since we have felt hope here in Iowa,” she said.
It’s true. Iowa Democrats have been wandering largely powerless in the wilderness for years now, watching Iowa get redder than Darth Vader’s lightsaber. So, any sign of new hope is rapidly embraced by Democrats.
The Iowa Poll Konfrst is describing came out last week. It showed Trump leading Harris 47-43. And yes, that’s a lot more hopeful than Trump’s 18 point lead over Joe Biden. I’ve heard much has changed in the campaign since then. Can’t confirm.
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Then, this week, the Iowa Poll also reported 64% of Iowans polled support legal abortion in all or most cases. And 59% of respondents oppose the six-week abortion ban now in effect here. The opposition included 69% of women polled. Just 48% of men oppose it. Pregnancy is no big deal compared to our man colds.
Democrats see this as fresh evidence reproductive rights are a winning issue. But we live in strange times when voters, particularly conservatives, value pack loyalty over issues. In 2022, the Iowa Poll found that 33% of Iowans who support abortion access planned to vote for Gov. Kim Reynolds.
Reynolds’ job approval now is just 45 percent, the lowest of her tenure.
But abortion as an issue is far more real now that the ban is in place.
Does this reflect some momentum for Harris? Sure. That’s been happening nationally. The Democratic National Convention went well. Harris clobbered Trump in their first debate. People who thought Biden is too old are taking a new look at Harris.
But, then there’s history. In 2016, Trump led Hillary Clinton by 4 points in October. Trump won the state by more than 9 percent.
In a September 2022, Iowa Poll, Biden and Trump were tied 47-47. Trump won Iowa by roughly 6 percent.
Also in 2022, Democratic U.S. Senate hopeful Mike Franken pulled to within 3 percent of Chuck Grassley in a mid-October Iowa Poll. Grassley won by 12 percentage points.
A poll, as they say, is a snapshot. The picture always shifts. And recently, that’s been good for Republicans.
But, hey, let’s not pop the balloons just yet. Democrats are in far better shape now than they were four months ago, staring down a likely Trump win and possible red wave.
Maybe the revived enthusiasm among Democrats will prompt more of them to get involved in campaigns. That work could be critical in close races.
So, Democrats, when they tell you how bad your odds of winning are, glare at them with the steely eyes of a space smuggler and say, “Never tell me the odds.”
(319) 398-8262; todd.dorman@thegazette.com
www.thegazette.com
“Sunday’s Iowa poll, from the legendary Ann Seltzer, showing Vice President Kamala Harris within 4% of Donald Trump, has sent a jolt of electricity through myself and so many Iowa Democrats,” House Minority Leader Jennifer Konfrst said in an email to supporters.
“Just three months ago, President Biden trailed Donald Trump in Iowa by 18 points. With just 50 days until Election Day, Harris has nearly closed that gap and has proved that Iowa is a PURPLE STATE, through and through,” Konfrst said.
Legendary? Wow.
It has been so long since we have felt hope here in Iowa,” she said.
It’s true. Iowa Democrats have been wandering largely powerless in the wilderness for years now, watching Iowa get redder than Darth Vader’s lightsaber. So, any sign of new hope is rapidly embraced by Democrats.
The Iowa Poll Konfrst is describing came out last week. It showed Trump leading Harris 47-43. And yes, that’s a lot more hopeful than Trump’s 18 point lead over Joe Biden. I’ve heard much has changed in the campaign since then. Can’t confirm.
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Then, this week, the Iowa Poll also reported 64% of Iowans polled support legal abortion in all or most cases. And 59% of respondents oppose the six-week abortion ban now in effect here. The opposition included 69% of women polled. Just 48% of men oppose it. Pregnancy is no big deal compared to our man colds.
Democrats see this as fresh evidence reproductive rights are a winning issue. But we live in strange times when voters, particularly conservatives, value pack loyalty over issues. In 2022, the Iowa Poll found that 33% of Iowans who support abortion access planned to vote for Gov. Kim Reynolds.
Reynolds’ job approval now is just 45 percent, the lowest of her tenure.
But abortion as an issue is far more real now that the ban is in place.
Does this reflect some momentum for Harris? Sure. That’s been happening nationally. The Democratic National Convention went well. Harris clobbered Trump in their first debate. People who thought Biden is too old are taking a new look at Harris.
But, then there’s history. In 2016, Trump led Hillary Clinton by 4 points in October. Trump won the state by more than 9 percent.
In a September 2022, Iowa Poll, Biden and Trump were tied 47-47. Trump won Iowa by roughly 6 percent.
Also in 2022, Democratic U.S. Senate hopeful Mike Franken pulled to within 3 percent of Chuck Grassley in a mid-October Iowa Poll. Grassley won by 12 percentage points.
A poll, as they say, is a snapshot. The picture always shifts. And recently, that’s been good for Republicans.
But, hey, let’s not pop the balloons just yet. Democrats are in far better shape now than they were four months ago, staring down a likely Trump win and possible red wave.
Maybe the revived enthusiasm among Democrats will prompt more of them to get involved in campaigns. That work could be critical in close races.
So, Democrats, when they tell you how bad your odds of winning are, glare at them with the steely eyes of a space smuggler and say, “Never tell me the odds.”
(319) 398-8262; todd.dorman@thegazette.com
Polls stoke Democrats’ hope despite history
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally, Tuesday, July 30, 2024, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore) It’s fair …
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