Post-vaccination behavior

Rifler

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Jan 26, 2011
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I am curious if you think that non-vaccinated people should be allowed into large group settings as we are still rolling out the vaccine or say end of '21 when most have had the opportunity to vaccinate.

I guess I'm curious as to how you think we would dis-allow non-vaccinated people from participating in large group settings?...
 
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hawkcub

HR Legend
Jul 18, 2005
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When I say everyone should be encouraged to go back to living their life immediately post-vaccine, I'm not talking about once the vaccine is readily available to all that want it. I agree that it's not great optics for health care workers to start partying.

But there's speculation that by April or May it could be available to anyone that wants it. At that point, if people refuse, it's on them, but the idea being promoted that we stay locked down and distanced for the rest of the year and beyond because COVID will still exist can get bent.

As for the small amount of people that CAN'T get they vaccine, then it will be THEIR responsibility to stay out of bars and movie theaters, but we can't stay shut down because they won't stay out of danger.
Excellent post. When in one breath it's said anyone can get a vaccine by April,May or possibly June. Then right after it's we must lock down and social distance till 2022. This just seems like the person saying it wants to keep the power they never dreamed of having.
 

Melmacian

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Excellent post. When in one breath it's said anyone can get a vaccine by April,May or possibly June. Then right after it's we must lock down and social distance till 2022. This just seems like the person saying it wants to keep the power they never dreamed of having.

Are we locked down now? And if you are, are people still suggesting we will be locked down until 2022?
 

hawkland14

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Are we locked down now? And if you are, are people still suggesting we will be locked down until 2022?
There are many businesses across this country that have not been operating since March because of government restrictions and are closed for good. There are kids in many states who haven't stepped foot inside a school since last March and suffering a lot of mental sh*& right now because of government restrictions. But hey your life is great so all is good.
 

Joes Place

HR King
Aug 28, 2003
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I think you are mostly reasonable, and you've admitted that you are risk averse. The CDC has flopped around so much, they don't have much credibility left with anyone who's been paying attention.

You don't "pay attention"

You listen to nonsense propaganda, and perpetuate it.
250,000 Covid deaths ago, you were on the Vitamin D bandwagon; before that, it was HCQ.


The answer to "moving forward" is that we can start having more gatherings, but mass gatherings of large crowds may need to wait until we have herd immunity in place. And mask mandates may be a "thing" for larger gatherings, particularly if there are outbreaks in some areas. But we can certainly get things back to "more normal" this summer; they just may not be exactly what they were like pre-Covid.

The wildcard here is that Covid doesn't morph into something more virulent and more transmissable, which our vaccines don't protect against. And the more people we infect, the higher likelihood that can happen. People like you will call that "fearmongering", but it is simply "fact".
 

onlyTheObvious

HR Heisman
Jan 3, 2021
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Students and many business owners would disagree.
My kid plays D1 at a non revenue sport at a small college a long way from home. He was in lockdown three different times at 10 days a pop. It has ruined so many once on a lifetime periods for countless people.

since the school isn’t power 5 the actions they take are little more than bullshit theatrics to appease the woke. Any medical professional could look at the details and say it was a waste of time.
 

Finance85

HR Legend
Oct 22, 2003
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You don't "pay attention"

You listen to nonsense propaganda, and perpetuate it.
250,000 Covid deaths ago, you were on the Vitamin D bandwagon; before that, it was HCQ.

You are a liar.

I posted a site that showed over 60 studies; some supporting VitaminD/HCQ combination, and some not.

You, on the other hand, supported a study that said 2.5 million people would be dead by now. You then tried moving the goalpost to :without mitigation, knowing full well there was already mitigation planned. You also said over and over that only 10% of people were asymptomatic, and anyone else was presymtomatic.

Go back to tripping out in your tripped out truck.
 

Pinehawk

HR Legend
Sep 16, 2003
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I really wish schools or public health would start to release data on those that they have forced to quarantine.
I'm personally not aware of a single 'close contact' identified by contact tracing that had to quarantine, which subsequently became positive. But, many kids have had to quarantine and sit out of in person school and activities for 14 days.
How about we evaluate that and see if it is really necessary?
Because it sure seems that it has proven to be an unnecessary burden that isn't supported by data.
 
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Joes Place

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Aug 28, 2003
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You are a liar.

I posted a site that showed over 60 studies; some supporting VitaminD/HCQ combination, and some not.
You posted on Vitamin D multiple times.
Own it, cupcake.

Pretty sure you were also on the HCQ disinformation bus.
 

Rifler

HR Legend
Jan 26, 2011
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Soon the weather will be changing and as shorts an flip flops appear, masks will begin to disappear,.. Whether we're ready or not this thing is coming to a close.
 

UKGrad93

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Jun 20, 2007
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My mil (you don't want pics) has been locked down in her nursing home since she moved in in June. They did have about a 2 week window in late July that they allowed 30 min visits in a special plastic bound room. For a while, they were even hesitant to take residents out for medical appointments.

I can say without a doubt that the lockdown there did not do much good. Late August/early September, C-19 found its way in and spread like wildfire. Over 90% of residents were infected. All the staff and residents have had a chance for vaccine now. I'm not sure why they can't re-open for some visits.
 
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Ole Jim

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runkpanole

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Nov 17, 2002
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Whether Joe and his tripped out ride and the other guy who said he hasn’t changed anything want to admit it, things have definitely changed. No, we weren’t locked down in the sense that we were fully confined to our house under threat of law, but we have most certainly sacrificed a lot of businesses and activities and freedoms we are accustomed to. Some of those good, some of those bad.
 

Melmacian

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Dec 9, 2003
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There are many businesses across this country that have not been operating since March because of government restrictions and are closed for good. There are kids in many states who haven't stepped foot inside a school since last March and suffering a lot of mental sh*& right now because of government restrictions. But hey your life is great so all is good.

I am not sure why are you trying to make this confrontational with your last line, but I am more than happy to have a discussion. My point was twofold. First, we are not 'locked down', that is what we were doing as a country in March/April/May, but most places (I assumed all, but I could be wrong) have loosened restrictions by now.

Regarding the businesses, which businesses have been restricted from opening since March? I realize this can be very different across the country and could be a blind spot of mine, but I am not aware of any businesses here that are still required to be closed. Now places did go out of businesses, and we could argue over whether that was due to restrictions or people's self-imposed change in behavior, like not going out to eat (or doing it less). My non-businessman understanding is that places like restaurants have very thin margins, and even if 10-20% of their usual customers stopped going there it would be catastrophic.

Are there still people who, because of government restrictions, aren't going to in-person school at all? Again, this could be a blindspot of mine as I know different states are different, but I wasn't aware of wide-spread government-mandated school closures that were ongoing. In fact, my understanding was that the new administration is looking for ways to get kids back in school.

All of that being said, my initial point from the post I responded to was to dispute that all of this would still be ongoing in 2022. If these government-mandated restrictions are in place at places across the country currently, where are the quotes suggesting they will still all be necessary 1 year from now?
 

hawkland14

HR Heisman
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Feb 26, 2013
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Whether Joe and his tripped out ride and the other guy who said he hasn’t changed anything want to admit it, things have definitely changed. No, we weren’t locked down in the sense that we were fully confined to our house under threat of law, but we have most certainly sacrificed a lot of businesses and activities and freedoms we are accustomed to. Some of those good, some of those bad.
AGain to people like Joe this is no big deal. His life hasn't changed and it easy to call anyone that disagrees with these restrictive policies that have ruined the lives and children and business owners as 'stupid Magats'
 

Melmacian

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'Heavily restricted' is a better term.
And, it was done without data that ever showed that what was restricted, was actually the driver of rising infections.

Depending on what you are referring to, this evidence is out there. The initial lockdown was more wide-spread as we didn't really know what we were dealing with then, but the more recent restrictions were at least somewhat evidence based (bars, restaurants, gyms, church choirs, etc - basically maskless indoor congregating).

If you are referring to schools, as we have discussed before, there is some (passionate) disagreement, even among experts. It is pretty clear that school is safe with universal masking, distancing, etc, as would be expected. It is less clear (and IMO scientifically implausible) that schools would somehow be safe without masking and distancing in the setting of high community transmission, at least at higher grades. We know indoor, maskless, 'crowded', exposures for extended periods of time promote transmission, so it is not likely that schools are somehow protected from that, especially the higher ages where students are more similar to adults.
 

Melmacian

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You are a liar.

I posted a site that showed over 60 studies; some supporting VitaminD/HCQ combination, and some not.

You, on the other hand, supported a study that said 2.5 million people would be dead by now. You then tried moving the goalpost to :without mitigation, knowing full well there was already mitigation planned. You also said over and over that only 10% of people were asymptomatic, and anyone else was presymtomatic.

Go back to tripping out in your tripped out truck.

To be fair, that study very specifically said that those estimates were without mitigation. The whole point of the study was to show how important mitigation was, and that was the baseline they used. The math is simple. Based on the estimated R0 you could calculate the number of infections needed for herd immunity. From there, knowing the estimated mortality rate, you can get that number.
 

hawkland14

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Feb 26, 2013
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I am not sure why are you trying to make this confrontational with your last line, but I am more than happy to have a discussion. My point was twofold. First, we are not 'locked down', that is what we were doing as a country in March/April/May, but most places (I assumed all, but I could be wrong) have loosened restrictions by now.

Regarding the businesses, which businesses have been restricted from opening since March? I realize this can be very different across the country and could be a blind spot of mine, but I am not aware of any businesses here that are still required to be closed. Now places did go out of businesses, and we could argue over whether that was due to restrictions or people's self-imposed change in behavior, like not going out to eat (or doing it less). My non-businessman understanding is that places like restaurants have very thin margins, and even if 10-20% of their usual customers stopped going there it would be catastrophic.

Are there still people who, because of government restrictions, aren't going to in-person school at all? Again, this could be a blindspot of mine as I know different states are different, but I wasn't aware of wide-spread government-mandated school closures that were ongoing. In fact, my understanding was that the new administration is looking for ways to get kids back in school.

All of that being said, my initial point from the post I responded to was to dispute that all of this would still be ongoing in 2022. If these government-mandated restrictions are in place at places across the country currently, where are the quotes suggesting they will still all be necessary 1 year from now?
Sorry that was wrong of me as you are a well reasoned poster and don't resort to pot shot name calling as many others do(IE JOEs Place). There are currently four states that have not sent any kids back to in person schooling and thousands of districts across the country that have done the same. The psychological and educational damage we are doing to the youth in this country in my opinion may be irreplaceable and it angers me that so many are flippant about so many kids not being back to school and treating it as no big deal.
 

BelemNole

HR Legend
Mar 29, 2002
34,044
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JFC people, the US has had the weakest "lock downs" of any western country and you all still bitch. Just do your part, wear your masks for a few more months and stop acting like freaking children. Aren't half a million deaths enough?
 
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Melmacian

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My mil (you don't want pics) has been locked down in her nursing home since she moved in in June. They did have about a 2 week window in late July that they allowed 30 min visits in a special plastic bound room. For a while, they were even hesitant to take residents out for medical appointments.

I can say without a doubt that the lockdown there did not do much good. Late August/early September, C-19 found its way in and spread like wildfire. Over 90% of residents were infected. All the staff and residents have had a chance for vaccine now. I'm not sure why they can't re-open for some visits.

I think some nursing homes are starting to open up for visits. I really do feel back for people in nursing homes and those of that generation. I can't begin to imagine the feeling of isolation that they have had to endure, especially near the end of their lives. I have a great-aunt that is close to our family that has been 'locked' in a nursing this whole time, and my mom used to stand outside her window and talk on the phone to her. I can't imagine that being the only human interaction I had for this time.
 
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Melmacian

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Dec 9, 2003
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Sorry that was wrong of me as you are a well reasoned poster and don't resort to pot shot name calling as many others do(IE JOEs Place). There are currently four states that have not sent any kids back to in person schooling and thousands of districts across the country that have done the same. The psychological and educational damage we are doing to the youth in this country in my opinion may be irreplaceable and it angers me that so many are flippant about so many kids not being back to school and treating it as no big deal.

No worries, I appreciate your response. I definitely am not one to diminish the potential psychological and educational damage that shutting down schools may have - we weighed the risks/benefits and put my daughter back in in-person pre-school in the late summer because we noticed distinct changes in her behavior that were developing over time, and a decrease in her curiosity and learning.

My stance has been that we should prioritize schools above all else to make them safer overall. We can limit transmission in hospitals, why not try to do similar things for schools? Mask mandates, distancing to the extent possible, improving ventilation, etc. I would also have favored increased restrictions elsewhere to decrease community transmission, thereby decreasing the risk of transmission in schools. When our state opened bars but had schools virtual I was scratching my head.

The often referred to data suggests that school transmission rates follow community transmission rates, so decreasing community rates would make schools (and therefore teachers, parents of other students, etc) safer.
 
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UKGrad93

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Jun 20, 2007
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A co-worker that has kids in school relayed to me his experience of going to a few high school football games this fall. He said most of the crowd were not wearing masks and were tightly packed into the bleachers. He, being very cautious, stood far away by himself with his mask on. His observation was that when some schools opened in the fall, the school was controlled, but the school related events (football games) were not controlled. His theory is that it was largely responsible for the fall spike in Iowa.

Basically it was that having some schools and some bars re-open signaled an 'All systems go' to many people.
 

billanole

HR Legend
Mar 5, 2005
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A question that is going to come up more and more is how much can we relax our behavior once we as individuals are vaccinated. It is a complicated question and I have seen varying opinions from smart people, but I will take a stab at answering the question here. There will be people at either extreme who won't change their behavior, but this is for those in the middle who are looking for some guidance. This might get a bit long, but it is a nuanced discussion - consider yourself warned.

The CDC has put out some messaging recently that could be confusing. While they are continuing to recommend people not change their behavior after vaccination, they recently said that people who are fully vaccinated don't have to quarantine. When taken at face value, these recommendations seem to contradict each other, and the first recommendation might dissuade people from getting vaccinated. So does getting vaccinated decrease your risk of COVID enough to warrant a change in behavior? That answer to that question requires many variables.

The variables that come into play are similar to those before vaccination, but vaccination changes some of the values. These include:
1. Community transmission - this factors into the risk that any one person you will come in contact with has COVID - The closer this gets to 0, the less the other factors matter
2. The overall riskiness of the gathering - how large is it? what will you be doing? are those you are gathering with vaccinated?
3. The prior behaviors of those you are gathering with
4. The effectiveness of the vaccine - does it prevent severe disease? mild disease? asymptomatic disease? transmission?
5. Your personal risk tolerance

What we know about the vaccine - Based on research studies and a recent 'real-life' study from Israel, these vaccines are very effective at preventing severe disease and symptomatic disease. They are 95% effective at preventing symptomatic disease and there have been very few severe COVID cases in those vaccinated. I think the Israel study showed for over 600,000 vaccinated individuals, only 608 were infected and 0 died.

We we don't know but can presume - The vaccine will likely decrease the rate of transmission. We know asymptomatic individuals are less likely to transmit the infection and we know that the vaccine significantly decreases symptomatic COVID, so it would stand to reason that this will decrease transmission to some extent, but the exact level is not known. My personal guess is that it will significantly decrease the risk of transmission, but we can't yet say that for certain.



So what is the real-life application of this once you are vaccinated? It depends on the scenario. Here are my thoughts:

A small group of fully vaccinated friends - It is highly unlikely that there would be any transmission among the group, especially if any other mitigation efforts take place. The risk of a fully vaccinated person having asymptomatic infection and passing it along to another fully vaccinated person would be exceedingly low. The risk of that 2nd vaccinated person having a serious case of COVID would have to be approaching 0.

The common question: 2 unvaccinated parents with 2 kids in daycare/school, wanting to know about visiting their vaccinated parents/grandparents. If you look at the numbers, the risk of the grandparents getting severe COVID is low. I think the following math is correct. At the current cases/100K rate in Iowa, assuming we detect 1/2 of cases, the risk that any one randomly selected unvaccinated person has COVID is ~0.25% (rough estimate), making the total risk of 1 of those 4 having it being 1%. Risk of transmission to household contacts from prior studies is up to 15% (usually lower - could be much higher with new variants). Now assume 95% decrease in risk of getting COVID due to the vaccination, and the risk of each individual grandparent getting symptomatic COVID would be 1% * 15% * .05% x 2 (accounting for the fact that either grandparent could get it). My math shows a risk of 0.015% for one of the grandparents getting symptomatic COVID, or 1.5 in 10,000. The risk of getting severe COVID is likely much lower based on the low number of severe cases seen in the trials and replicated in Israel.

Now if you flip that question on it's head and ask what is the risk of the grandparents having asymptomatic infection and transmitting it to their children or grandchildren, we have to make an assumption of how much the vaccine will decrease risk of transmission. If we conservatively say 50% decrease in transmission (which is likely way too low) and no effect on decreasing asymptomatic infection (likely not true), the risk would still be in the 10-20/10,000 range. If the vaccine does better than that with decreasing transmission and decreasing asymptomatic infections, those numbers would be much lower. If we are talking otherwise young and healthy people, their risk of severe disease would be extremely low as well.

My personal question: 2 vaccinated adults with 2 unvaccinated young children visiting vaccinated parents. The main risk here is the unvaccinated kids (who are at daycare) transmitting it to their vaccinated grandparents. However, using the assumptions above, the risk of the grandparents getting symptomatic COVID from their unvaccinated grandchildren would be 7.5 in 100,000 (0.5% that either kid has it, 15% household transmission risk, 95% reduction in risk for the grandparents from being vaccinated). Again, that is just the risk for any symptoms, and the risk of severe disease is significantly lower than that.

What not to do: All of the above examples are small gatherings, and therefore the minuscule risk of transmission wouldn't likely contribute to many downstream infections that could affect additional (potentially unvaccinated or high risk) people. I would still avoid large gatherings, gatherings with high-risk unvaccinated individuals, or high risk activities, etc until we see a significant decrease in community transmission, but small, low-risk gatherings with vaccinated people are reasonable to consider depending on your risk tolerance.

Anyone who has been following my intermittent posts throughout all of this knows that I have been on the risk-averse side of these discussions. However, COVID risk isn't going to be 0 anytime soon, and as vaccination rates continue to increase and data of effectiveness start to accumulate, we need to start thinking about how to move forward with the next stage of the pandemic. These numbers take a lot of assumptions into account, but at least provide a sense of what risk we are talking about. Changes that could affect these calculations include new data that will come in regarding transmission after vaccination, an overall change in community transmission rates, the emergence of variants (increasing transmissability or decreasing vaccine effectiveness), etc.

Cue tl;dr and 'i was told there would be no math'. Thanks to all of those who made it this far for listening.
Thanks.
 

Joes Place

HR King
Aug 28, 2003
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Sorry that was wrong of me as you are a well reasoned poster and don't resort to pot shot name calling as many others do(IE JOEs Place).

Spare me, bro. YOU attacked ME AND OTHERS for being "fearmongering" back in the late Spring LAST YEAR.

Remember these nuggets?

Huey the Corona fanboy.

What’s our case rate per 100,000 compared to Italy? Death rate?

Narrator: Our Case Rate is almost DOUBLE Italy's today

10,000 cases a day? You literally are making stuff up.

Narrator: But it was just months later, the US hit 100,000 and 200,000 new cases a day.

But people like you and Joe and the MSM keep making these predictions that are so outlandish(2 millions deaths, 3000 deaths a day, hospitals not functioning in ten days) only to spark as much fear as possible just because Orange Man Bad syndrome has consumed you.

Narrator: The World currently stands at 2.5 Million deaths, with the US at about a half million of those (20%) with only 5% of the World's population. People like @hawkland14 and Orange Man got us here. And we had OVER A MONTH of >3000 deaths a day this winter.


So, spare me the "Joes Place is Bad because he called me names and told me I was wrong". You were completely wrong on this. And you continue to be.
 
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Mar 11, 2020
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JFC people, the US has had the weakest "lock downs" of any western country and you all still bitch. Just do your part, wear your masks for a few more months and stop acting like freaking children. Aren't half a million deaths enough?
"Two weeks to flatten the curve" has now turned into "wear your mask for a few more months."
 
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pablow

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Mar 14, 2010
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Yeah, the reputation of the CDC has taken a big hit in the past year. . . .

That being said, I think we will see that things will be different with their new leadership. From all I have seen, she is highly respected, highly regarded, and not politically driven. I might end up being wrong, but I am willing to give the ‘new’ CDC a chance.

The head of the CDC just walked back her prior statements on schools opening up. Not a good sign that things will be different under Biden.
 

Pinehawk

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Sep 16, 2003
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A co-worker that has kids in school relayed to me his experience of going to a few high school football games this fall. He said most of the crowd were not wearing masks and were tightly packed into the bleachers. He, being very cautious, stood far away by himself with his mask on. His observation was that when some schools opened in the fall, the school was controlled, but the school related events (football games) were not controlled. His theory is that it was largely responsible for the fall spike in Iowa.

Basically it was that having some schools and some bars re-open signaled an 'All systems go' to many people.

That is not what I experienced this fall. Attendance was heavily restricted, crowd was spaced and masks required.
Only place I saw some reduction in those precautions, were at smaller, more rural schools.

And, if that is was what responsible for the fall spike, then restaurants should not have been forced to pay the heavy financial price with severe restrictions which targeted their businesses specifically.
 

mauricehawki

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Feb 15, 2006
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This thread is unbelievable. Are people going to ask everyone you come in contact with if they have been vaccinated? Are you going to live your life based on the vaccination status of the people you are around? Excuse before I get in the checkout line behind you may I ask if you have been vaccinated. Yes if you are vaccinated you can return to normal life. Geez this virus is losing steam fast so get over the fear mongering. In case your wondering i am passing on getting vaccinated. No need herd immunity has been reached in my local area.
 

Kenneth Griffin

HR Legend
Jan 13, 2012
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Spare me, bro. YOU attacked ME AND OTHERS for being "fearmongering" back in the late Spring LAST YEAR.

Remember these nuggets?



Narrator: Our Case Rate is almost DOUBLE Italy's today



Narrator: But it was just months later, the US hit 100,000 and 200,000 new cases a day.



Narrator: The World currently stands at 2.5 Million deaths, with the US at about a half million of those (20%) with only 5% of the World's population. People like @hawkland14 and Orange Man got us here. And we had OVER A MONTH of >3000 deaths a day this winter.



So, spare me the "Joes Place is Bad because he called me names and told me I was wrong". You were completely wrong on this. And you continue to be.

not as bad as the guy who claimed there would only be 250 deaths lol

Euo722BVgAI4lpP
 
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LBoogie28

HR All-American
Feb 5, 2007
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You are a liar.

I posted a site that showed over 60 studies; some supporting VitaminD/HCQ combination, and some not.

You, on the other hand, supported a study that said 2.5 million people would be dead by now. You then tried moving the goalpost to :without mitigation, knowing full well there was already mitigation planned. You also said over and over that only 10% of people were asymptomatic, and anyone else was presymtomatic.

Go back to tripping out in your tripped out truck.

You claimed no one healthy, under the age of 60 dies from COVID. STFU with this finger pointing BS. People made terrible predictions, yourself included.
 
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