ADVERTISEMENT

Prediction

Too early but the computer model isn’t buying the addition by subtraction narrative.

http://barttorvik.com/trankpre.php

No worries. Frederick, PMac, and Joe T will confound all computer models.

Cue the fans who know that this is worthless because Iowa players will improve during the off season and no other big ten players will.

Your computer also has every P6 school with at least 8 losses or more (iowa with13), which isn’t realistic at all. They have a lot of teams bundled up 1 - 50 in the 8 - 14 loss range.

Of course other teams will have players improved, just like every team has losses like Cook and Moss (and many with players a lot better then them) and incoming Freshman that will confound computer models in both a positive and negative way.

You make a point about Iowa fans not being realistic about their losses and suggesting they shouldn’t be optimistic about improvements and incoming players but yet every other team is dealing with the same things, some to a much larger extent and not with a team that has 7 rotational players (including Pemsl and Nunge) with Big Ten experience and 5 of top 7 players returning from a Round of 32 team.
 
This is not surprising at all actually.

I trust most reasonable posters have objective and analytical perspective, know the roster, the players that left with relative strengths and weaknesses, and what is coming aboard this next season.

I really think this next year's team surpasses last year's team. Deep down think about the relative strengths and weakness of the returning squad.

The following year is worrisome but let's see how the 2020 recruiting class turns out.
 
  • Like
Reactions: owenhawk
This is not surprising at all actually.

I trust most reasonable posters have objective and analytical perspective, know the roster, the players that left with relative strengths and weaknesses, and what is coming aboard this next season.

I really think this next year's team surpasses last year's team. Deep down think about the relative strengths and weakness of the returning squad.

The following year is worrisome but let's see how the 2020 recruiting class turns out.

The following year we only lose Bohannon & Kriener. We will still have a very good core. As long as the surrounding parts fit in 2019-2020, which most of us are hoping and/or believing to be so, we should be better in 2020-2021 regardless of who we bring in.

I think next year's team will be equally as good as this last year's team. With the definite Potential to be better (Joe T & CJ are my wildcards here on that. Patrick too IF he meets his weight goal set out by Fran). However, we may not surpass the 2018-2019 team with the schedule we have. It will be significantly harder. At least on paper...
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: skydog0784
OP, what do you say? Seems like you made your original supposition out of ignorance?

;)

Lolz

46 is better than 42? Does 46 say better than a 10 seed to you?

How many Big Ten teams predicted ahead of Iowa?

I’ll make it easy for you — 10 ( 6 last year).

No worries though, an “upper division” finish is still likely depending on the devisor selected.

I’m sure his ranking will be adjusted somewhat as the transfer scene solidifies. Just thought I’d point out that some of the dope smoking fruitcakes and cheating mother ****ers are already not on board with the expert prognosticators here. Barttorvik obviously missed the Tennessee game and CJ Frederick’s high school highlight vids.

They’ll all have to learn the hard way.
 
Last edited:
If Iowa finishes 6th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, they aren’t going 17-13

We won’t (We play in the Big Ten) but offense was never the problem.

If you can’t stop anyone from scoring, you’re going to lose a lot of league games. You can’t expect last second shots to break your way every time every season.

Are you expecting higher than a 10 seed this year? Be honest. A lot of people are discounting the effect a tougher schedule. The only way I can predict a better season this year than last is if they improve significantly on defense, and I don’t see that happening with what we’re plugging in. Neither does Torvik, I guess.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Vbeachawk
Too early but the computer model isn’t buying the addition by subtraction narrative.

http://barttorvik.com/trankpre.php

No worries. Frederick, PMac, and Joe T will confound all computer models.

Cue the fans who know that this is worthless because Iowa players will improve during the off season and no other big ten players will.
So what you're saying is............



National championship?
 
What was Iowa predicted by Torvik before the 2018-2019 season started? They finished 42 but what were they predicted. Because almost all predictions going into the season and were predicted 10th or 11th in conference and no NCAA tournament. So last year’s team surpassed expectations and predictions by a lot. Something you are saying can’t happen this coming year and people are really dumb to suggest.

Weird, these people doing predictions aren’t always 100% right. Your act is boring AF. Most people that are optimistic are saying they believe Iowa will be about as good and maybe a little better as the previous year (and they have all laid out reasons why they believe that). They aren’t predicting a Big Ten Championship or some ridiculous assertion. But you are being whiny crybaby because you are sad that Cook and Moss left. If you believe that they are such big losses that Iowa is going to nose dive to a losing record and being a cellar dweller, that’s your prerogative but your agenda shows when you refer to people as “dope smoking fruitcakes and cheating mf’ers” (however that relates to talking basketball?) because they don’t agree with you.
 
  • Like
Reactions: HoustonREDHawk
What was Iowa predicted by Torvik before the 2018-2019 season started? They finished 42 but what were they predicted. Because almost all predictions going into the season and were predicted 10th or 11th in conference and no NCAA tournament. So last year’s team surpassed expectations and predictions by a lot. Something you are saying can’t happen this coming year and people are really dumb to suggest.

Weird, these people doing predictions aren’t always 100% right. Your act is boring AF. Most people that are optimistic are saying they believe Iowa will be about as good and maybe a little better as the previous year (and they have all laid out reasons why they believe that). They aren’t predicting a Big Ten Championship or some ridiculous assertion. But you are being whiny crybaby because you are sad that Cook and Moss left. If you believe that they are such big losses that Iowa is going to nose dive to a losing record and being a cellar dweller, that’s your prerogative but your agenda shows when you refer to people as “dope smoking fruitcakes and cheating mf’ers” (however that relates to talking basketball?) because they don’t agree with you.


I’m a whiny crybaby because I don’t agree with you?

Grow up, dude.

Dope smoking fruitcake refers to what someone on this board called me because I don’t think we’ll be better without Moss and Cook.

Please point out where I ever said Iowa would be a “cellar dweller”. Go ahead. You can’t. All I’ve ever said is that I don’t think we’ll be better than last year.

Torvik predicted Iowa fifth last year, fwiw.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Vbeachawk
Illinois at #17?!


Rutgers at #36?

Inconceivable!!!!

Be honest. Can you name three returning players on either of those teams? Can you name one incoming freshman?

In my opinion, these are reasonable predictions.

Will they be even 80% correct? Probably not but they only seem surprising to people who don’t follow this stuff closely.
 
We won’t (We play in the Big Ten) but offense was never the problem.

If you can’t stop anyone from scoring, you’re going to lose a lot of league games. You can’t expect last second shots to break your way every time every season.

Are you expecting higher than a 10 seed this year? Be honest. A lot of people are discounting the effect a tougher schedule. The only way I can predict a better season this year than last is if they improve significantly on defense, and I don’t see that happening with what we’re plugging in. Neither does Torvik, I guess.
Of course it wasn’t, but if you’re borderline top 5 offensively and 125th defensively, you should absolutely go better than four games over .500. That’s mediocre defense, but not terrible.

Don’t really know what to expect this year to be honest. There are a lot of unknown variables. I could see things not going so well and a 10 seed,or everybody clicking, defense improving, and something better. I’d be really disappointed if they don’t win a game in the tournament though
 
If you can’t stop anyone from scoring, you’re going to lose a lot of league games. You can’t expect last second shots to break your way every time every season.

Are you expecting higher than a 10 seed this year? Be honest.


Are you suggesting every last second shot broke Iowa’s way last season?

For the record, I am expecting a slight decline from last season as far as wins go. I’d guess 19-20 wins and squarely a bubble team. Hopefully I’m pleasantly surprised again next year. Last season was pretty fun.
 
Are you suggesting every last second shot broke Iowa’s way last season?

For the record, I am expecting a slight decline from last season as far as wins go. I’d guess 19-20 wins and squarely a bubble team. Hopefully I’m pleasantly surprised again next year. Last season was pretty fun.
This is how I see 2019-20 season as well.
 
At this point, there might be an overall positive correlation between predictions like this and what happens, but we really don't know. This one certainly includes a lot of data. I prefer to be more optimistic, because I would wonder why I am continuing as a fan, if all I could feel was negative and critical.

Iowa lost three players, who have been a big part of their team for the past few years. Iowa wasn't exactly wildly successful during that stretch, so maybe the loss created openings for improvement. Or, if the replacements are failures, and the other team members don't show clear improvement, then we might be in for a tough season. We won't know the answer until late this year, and that could be impacted by things like injuries that are out of anyone's control...

I don't want to get into bashing guys who left, but the analytics for Cook and Moss were not great. Our eyes saw the flashes of talent that are now gone. I personally think we will miss Baer even more, but I have always enjoyed watching the play off the ball and from a "helping the team" perspective (e.g., steals, deflected balls, help defense, understanding where the ball is going as the play develops), rather than just watching the guy shooting the ball. Those are winning plays that aren't captured in the box score, and we will need to step up as a team to compensate.

In addition to everyone staying healthy, I see JoeT and Nunge as the key players who will determine whether the team will be better or worse. I am confident that JoeW is going to be one of the most complete players Iowa has had, in many years. I am confident that the combination of Luka and Kriener makes Iowa stronger than most teams at center, although we need significant improvement in learning position defense and rebounding, especially from Luka. I am confident that JBo can shoot the ball and is nails in the clutch, if he and the coaches can figure out how to get him shots. I am confident that CMac is a hard-nosed, smart PG who can run a team's offense, but he needs to be able to shoot better from outside to open up the rest of the offense. Some other wild cards will be the health of Pemsl, who gives us attitude and ability to score around the basket, but he needs to either show drastic improvement in his game away from the basket or only be used as a post-up player on offense. CJF is a total wild card to me, but he definitely can shoot the ball (from anywhere on the court). I don't know whether B1G-level opponents will be able to shut that down or not, or how he plays on the defensive end. PMac also seems to be a wild card, and whether his length and talent can have an impact, probably depends on how he can be pieced in with the rest of the team. Overall, I see a team with tremendous offensive firepower, but I am concerned about the other end of the court, especially if JoeT gives us very little. We will see.
 
  • Like
Reactions: hawkeyeguy69
Which will still be just as good as this season, as our SOS will be considerably higher next season. I think we will be at or just above the bubble again...

What Fran needs to do is create a 2nd (late) season strategy, IMHO. He designs a strategy for his current players very well at the beginning of the season. However, once the B1G has gone through half the slate, teams have either play Iowa already, and/or they have plenty of film. They have Fran's strategy figured out.

Not sure how one does this, or if I am even close that this is the reason ("teams have his strategy figured out"), but my fuzzy logic brain thinks that is what needs to be done. That is, concoct a new set of defensive & offensive schemes throughout 2/3 of the season in practice - but not use them until late February.

Make the switch in strategy with one of our lesser B1G opponents. And roll with what works, incorporating that into our game with what has been working well... It is my belief/hope that it would throw teams off.

That make sense to any of you, coaches or none...?


This is how I see 2019-20 season as well.
 
At this point, there might be an overall positive correlation between predictions like this and what happens, but we really don't know. This one certainly includes a lot of data. I prefer to be more optimistic, because I would wonder why I am continuing as a fan, if all I could feel was negative and critical.

Iowa lost three players, who have been a big part of their team for the past few years. Iowa wasn't exactly wildly successful during that stretch, so maybe the loss created openings for improvement. Or, if the replacements are failures, and the other team members don't show clear improvement, then we might be in for a tough season. We won't know the answer until late this year, and that could be impacted by things like injuries that are out of anyone's control...

I don't want to get into bashing guys who left, but the analytics for Cook and Moss were not great. Our eyes saw the flashes of talent that are now gone. I personally think we will miss Baer even more, but I have always enjoyed watching the play off the ball and from a "helping the team" perspective (e.g., steals, deflected balls, help defense, understanding where the ball is going as the play develops), rather than just watching the guy shooting the ball. Those are winning plays that aren't captured in the box score, and we will need to step up as a team to compensate.

In addition to everyone staying healthy, I see JoeT and Nunge as the key players who will determine whether the team will be better or worse. I am confident that JoeW is going to be one of the most complete players Iowa has had, in many years. I am confident that the combination of Luka and Kriener makes Iowa stronger than most teams at center, although we need significant improvement in learning position defense and rebounding, especially from Luka. I am confident that JBo can shoot the ball and is nails in the clutch, if he and the coaches can figure out how to get him shots. I am confident that CMac is a hard-nosed, smart PG who can run a team's offense, but he needs to be able to shoot better from outside to open up the rest of the offense. Some other wild cards will be the health of Pemsl, who gives us attitude and ability to score around the basket, but he needs to either show drastic improvement in his game away from the basket or only be used as a post-up player on offense. CJF is a total wild card to me, but he definitely can shoot the ball (from anywhere on the court). I don't know whether B1G-level opponents will be able to shut that down or not, or how he plays on the defensive end. PMac also seems to be a wild card, and whether his length and talent can have an impact, probably depends on how he can be pieced in with the rest of the team. Overall, I see a team with tremendous offensive firepower, but I am concerned about the other end of the court, especially if JoeT gives us very little. We will see.
.



Good post. I too agree that Baer will be sorely missed. The other 3 early departures as well. But Baer had the intangibles(sorry Fran, but the guy had intangibles!) that none of the others had. His nose for the ball, his Bball IQ and his knack for being in the right place at the right time were all things that do not usually show up on a stat sheet.

Fran should make a tape, or a couple of tapes, showing what Nicholas did from baseline to baseline. Baer could have easily been the recipient of the Chris Street award every year.... His sneaky quickness cannot be taught. But his movements are something that could be replicated. Although anticipation of where a ball is going to go is a matter of having an eye for it, in a lot of cases. Getting yourself in position, And outright hustle Can be had by quite a few on this team.

Fran should push that all summer long. Every year. Make it known as Baer lore...
 
  • Like
Reactions: kceasthawk
I’m a whiny crybaby because I don’t agree with you?

Grow up, dude.

Dope smoking fruitcake refers to what someone on this board called me because I don’t think we’ll be better without Moss and Cook.

Please point out where I ever said Iowa would be a “cellar dweller”. Go ahead. You can’t. All I’ve ever said is that I don’t think we’ll be better than last year.

Torvik predicted Iowa fifth last year, fwiw.

I don’t know why you are a whiny crybaby, but you most certainly are. Most ISU fans I know spend time making up 12-0 football scenarios, not trolling the iowa basketball board.
 
  • Like
Reactions: owenhawk
Which will still be just as good as this season, as our SOS will be considerably higher next season. I think we will be at or just above the bubble again...

What Fran needs to do is create a 2nd (late) season strategy, IMHO. He designs a strategy for his current players very well at the beginning of the season. However, once the B1G has gone through half the slate, teams have either play Iowa already, and/or they have plenty of film. They have Fran's strategy figured out.

Not sure how one does this, or if I am even close that this is the reason ("teams have his strategy figured out"), but my fuzzy logic brain thinks that is what needs to be done. That is, concoct a new set of defensive & offensive schemes throughout 2/3 of the season in practice - but not use them until late February.

Make the switch in strategy with one of our lesser B1G opponents. And roll with what works, incorporating that into our game with what has been working well... It is my belief/hope that it would throw teams off.

That make sense to any of you, coaches or none...?

I don’t know many coaches who make plans to change things up when the season is going really well.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BBHawk
I don’t know many coaches who make plans to change things up when the season is going really well.

Nor do I know. But when you have something happen year after year, it becomes a trend. One that seems to obviously happen. So much so, that the Fran has noticed it himself. But saying, "I don't know" does not cut it. Fix it.

You can run the same play successfully over and over again. Eventually people figure it out through scouting and familiarity. Then the play is no longer successful to your frequent competition. Something has to change.
 
Which will still be just as good as this season, as our SOS will be considerably higher next season. I think we will be at or just above the bubble again...

What Fran needs to do is create a 2nd (late) season strategy, IMHO. He designs a strategy for his current players very well at the beginning of the season. However, once the B1G has gone through half the slate, teams have either play Iowa already, and/or they have plenty of film. They have Fran's strategy figured out.

Not sure how one does this, or if I am even close that this is the reason ("teams have his strategy figured out"), but my fuzzy logic brain thinks that is what needs to be done. That is, concoct a new set of defensive & offensive schemes throughout 2/3 of the season in practice - but not use them until late February.

Make the switch in strategy with one of our lesser B1G opponents. And roll with what works, incorporating that into our game with what has been working well... It is my belief/hope that it would throw teams off.

That make sense to any of you, coaches or none...?

What’s Fran’s record during the 1st half of the B1G schedule vs his record during the 2nd half of the B1G schedule(including the BTT)
 
Rutgers at #36?

Inconceivable!!!!

Be honest. Can you name three returning players on either of those teams? Can you name one incoming freshman?

In my opinion, these are reasonable predictions.

Will they be even 80% correct? Probably not but they only seem surprising to people who don’t follow this stuff closely.
Rutgers is going to be very good. Very athletic team that was young last year. Big and fast.

You really don’t know three players on Illinois? Trent Frazier has been good for two years. Ayo Dosunmu was a five star recruit who led the team in scoring and was all freshman along with your guy. Giorgi was an amazing find who was one of the best freshmen in the league. Had some huge games in the Big Ten including Illinois freshman record of 35. Heck, as bad as he has was this year, Kipper Nichols scored 31 against Iowa in the BTT a year ago.

Incoming recruit? Kofi Cockburn was a five star recruit for most of his time in high school. 7-0, 290.

Do you follow other teams at all? I can name 6-7 players on Iowa and I don’t follow them any more closely than any other Big Ten team other than Illinois.
 
  • Like
Reactions: foxb
Rutgers is going to be very good. Very athletic team that was young last year. Big and fast.

You really don’t know three players on Illinois? Trent Frazier has been good for two years. Ayo Dosunmu was a five star recruit who led the team in scoring and was all freshman along with your guy. Giorgi was an amazing find who was one of the best freshmen in the league. Had some huge games in the Big Ten including Illinois freshman record of 35. Heck, as bad as he has was this year, Kipper Nichols scored 31 against Iowa in the BTT a year ago.

Incoming recruit? Kofi Cockburn was a five star recruit for most of his time in high school. 7-0, 290.

Do you follow other teams at all? I can name 6-7 players on Iowa and I don’t follow them any more closely than any other Big Ten team other than Illinois.


Dummy.... is this post for me?

Can you read?

My point was that it is no surprise to see either of those teams projected as high as they are. I was criticizing Iowa fans for only knowing their own team. That’s why I said these predictions are only surprising for people who don’t follow this stuff closely.

Jeezus.
 
What’s Fran’s record during the 1st half of the B1G schedule vs his record during the 2nd half of the B1G schedule(including the BTT)

Well, since I am bored I'll send you a few numbers for your lazy arse.

This is not overly relevant, as you would need to figure out the strength of the opponent and include that. The B1G schedule can be weighted heavily in the beginning, like this season. But here are a few numbers from the Hawks down the stretch...
2019 7-7 1-1 in BTT
2018 2-9 Loss in 1st round of BTT
2017 6-4 Loss in 1st round of BTT
2016 4-6 Loss in 1st round of BTT
2015 8-2 Loss in 1st round of BTT
2014 they finished 1-7. Loss in 1st round of BTT. Ugh. That was a decent team too... Marble's senior year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Vbeachawk
Well, since I am bored I'll send you a few numbers for your lazy arse.

This is not overly relevant, as you would need to figure out the strength of the opponent and include that. The B1G schedule can be weighted heavily in the beginning, like this season. But here are a few numbers from the Hawks down the stretch...
2019 7-7 1-1 in BTT
2018 2-9 Loss in 1st round of BTT
2017 6-4 Loss in 1st round of BTT
2016 4-6 Loss in 1st round of BTT
2015 8-2 Loss in 1st round of BTT
2014 they finished 1-7. Loss in 1st round of BTT. Ugh. That was a decent team too... Marble's senior year.

2018 didn’t have a first rd loss in the BTT. Iowa beat Illinois two years in a row and then lost to Michigan.
 
I predict a top 3 conference finish since UM is soo blue from losing the B-man! MSU and Mich have been IA's kryptonite, can any other NBA team lure Izzy too?
 
Well, since I am bored I'll send you a few numbers for your lazy arse.

This is not overly relevant, as you would need to figure out the strength of the opponent and include that. The B1G schedule can be weighted heavily in the beginning, like this season. But here are a few numbers from the Hawks down the stretch...
2019 7-7 1-1 in BTT
2018 2-9 Loss in 1st round of BTT
2017 6-4 Loss in 1st round of BTT
2016 4-6 Loss in 1st round of BTT
2015 8-2 Loss in 1st round of BTT
2014 they finished 1-7. Loss in 1st round of BTT. Ugh. That was a decent team too... Marble's senior year.

My lazy arse has already looked at the numbers but I’ll post them again for the folks at home.

1st half B1G under Fran 37-45
2nd half B1G (including BTT) under Fran 45-50
 
My lazy arse has already looked at the numbers but I’ll post them again for the folks at home.

1st half B1G under Fran 37-45
2nd half B1G (including BTT) under Fran 45-50
Ssshh, facts aren't welcome here. They all think Iowa had the annual February swoon this past year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: unoHawkeye
Seems to be a growing consensus that if we are worse next year it is because of the loss of Baer.
If we are better it is because of the loss of Moss and Cook.
Baer has grown in stature after the to epic proportions while Moss and Cook has shrunk. Look for Baer in the NBA next year.
 
ADVERTISEMENT