At this point, there might be an overall positive correlation between predictions like this and what happens, but we really don't know. This one certainly includes a lot of data. I prefer to be more optimistic, because I would wonder why I am continuing as a fan, if all I could feel was negative and critical.
Iowa lost three players, who have been a big part of their team for the past few years. Iowa wasn't exactly wildly successful during that stretch, so maybe the loss created openings for improvement. Or, if the replacements are failures, and the other team members don't show clear improvement, then we might be in for a tough season. We won't know the answer until late this year, and that could be impacted by things like injuries that are out of anyone's control...
I don't want to get into bashing guys who left, but the analytics for Cook and Moss were not great. Our eyes saw the flashes of talent that are now gone. I personally think we will miss Baer even more, but I have always enjoyed watching the play off the ball and from a "helping the team" perspective (e.g., steals, deflected balls, help defense, understanding where the ball is going as the play develops), rather than just watching the guy shooting the ball. Those are winning plays that aren't captured in the box score, and we will need to step up as a team to compensate.
In addition to everyone staying healthy, I see JoeT and Nunge as the key players who will determine whether the team will be better or worse. I am confident that JoeW is going to be one of the most complete players Iowa has had, in many years. I am confident that the combination of Luka and Kriener makes Iowa stronger than most teams at center, although we need significant improvement in learning position defense and rebounding, especially from Luka. I am confident that JBo can shoot the ball and is nails in the clutch, if he and the coaches can figure out how to get him shots. I am confident that CMac is a hard-nosed, smart PG who can run a team's offense, but he needs to be able to shoot better from outside to open up the rest of the offense. Some other wild cards will be the health of Pemsl, who gives us attitude and ability to score around the basket, but he needs to either show drastic improvement in his game away from the basket or only be used as a post-up player on offense. CJF is a total wild card to me, but he definitely can shoot the ball (from anywhere on the court). I don't know whether B1G-level opponents will be able to shut that down or not, or how he plays on the defensive end. PMac also seems to be a wild card, and whether his length and talent can have an impact, probably depends on how he can be pieced in with the rest of the team. Overall, I see a team with tremendous offensive firepower, but I am concerned about the other end of the court, especially if JoeT gives us very little. We will see.