Prepare for NIT

[perryhawk]

I stole this from another site.....but I thought it interesting and pertinent to this discussion.......I think the RPI is crap, but that said I think this is totally realistic and an RPI of 39 would not seem to be a problem, would it?

A lot of people are worried about our RPI when it comes down to selection Sunday. If Iowa makes it to the Cayman Islands Classic final and loses to Cincinnati here is their RPI projection:


Iowa
W-L RPI* SOS
21-10 39 77

http://www.rpiforecast.com/

 

[nitewing]

I agree, his brother is a better prospect.

lets see Connor is a ESPN 4* TOP 100 PG and the best he can be is serviceable? what am I missing?

 

[And1Hawk]

what U should get straight is I think you are a moron for posting a thread Prepare for NIT after 3 games and then tell others to be objective & not drink the kool aid. NOW thats funny.

U obviously were not at the game last night..as U didnt get the yelling & the band part.

Where did I say we would make the NCAA? OR not....lets try this again..to judge this team from 3 games is brutally unfair and I would suggest there isnt a player on this team who wouldnt think they need fans like you like they need a toothache.

Better go back and read my earlier post because I clearly mentioned although I go to many games I elected not to go in person last night to Grambling and watch from home instead due to distance. What part of that was not clear?

Your opinion on 3 games plus 2 exhibitions is fine. It's yours and I have mine and that opinion has been clearly stated.

No koolaid, hyperbole or name calling needed in mine. That is we are not capable of playing enough defense to get us into the big dance this year because of our lack of quickness and inability to stop dribble penetration. I think we are in need of an additional good guard for our backcourt that can play both ends. I happen to think we should give Dailey a strong look to see if he can be that third guard. Not sure he can but looking at our prospects behind Moss & JBo he might have the most potential to be that player. Brady is really solid, real good shooter when open and does not make mistakes but against high level competition he struggles to impact the game and can't play enough defense on the ball. He has a role but we need another guard.

I think we will be good and win our share of games but struggle at times when quality teams with athleticism and quickness exploit our deficiency. That will put us on the bubble and our RPI and SOS will play against us putting us just out to the NIT.

That's my projection.

 

[DanL53]

I brought it up so it's on me. I think it was in relation to something disputed or being discussed. When we make the tourney this year which would be great you can hold this opinion over me forever. No problem from my end.

We had some excellent wins last year including wins over tourney teams ISU, Michigan, Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue, etc. and one ripped away at Minny. We some bad losses too including UNO. We tied at 10-8 for fifth in the B1G with 4 other teams and were the only one of the 4 not to get in. We lost Tyler Cook early in he season for a stretch which was not factored in. I'd argue we had as many good wins as many of the final 4-8 teams to get invited. I'd also bet there were a number of teams that got in that did not beat 5 different tourney teams. The RPI is total crap.

I'll keep looking for the predictions thread from last year. But the old thread I found shows posters calling for Fran's head...talking hot seat. When you use words like "Kool-Aid" drinkers, I think you've got the wrong idea about our little group of prognosticators. Of course, I'm sure most like to forget their reasonable opinions.

As I've said, I don't consider you to be a Lemon Sucker. But this "Prepare for the NIT" thread appears to be a reaction from one game. If so, and you are just blowing off steam...ok. But you sure made it your mission to defend the thoughts and you can see how that worked out for another poster last year.

Anyway, I'm glad you are a Hawkeye fan. Don't really care if you are certain of your evaluations...I don't really get too certain which is why I call them "guesswork". And I suppose I can live with being one of the "Kool-Aid" drinkers as it turns out Fran is certainly not a Jim Jones kind of coach.

 

[nitewing]

Better go back and read my earlier post because I clearly mentioned although I go to many games I elected not to go in person last night to Grambling and watch from home instead due to distance. What part of that was not clear?

Your opinion on 3 games plus 2 exhibitions is fine. It's yours and I have mine and that opinion has been clearly stated.

No koolaid, hyperbole or name calling needed in mine. That is we are not capable of playing enough defense to get us into the big dance this year because of our lack of quickness and inability to stop dribble penetration. I think we are in need of an additional good guard for our backcourt that can play both ends. I happen to think we should give Dailey a strong look to see if he can be that third guard. Not sure he can but looking at our prospects behind Moss & JBo he might have the most potential to be that player. Brady is really solid, real good shooter when open and does not make mistakes but against high level competition he struggles to impact the game and can't play enough defense on the ball. He has a role but we need another guard.

I think we will be good and win our share of games but struggle at times when quality teams with athleticism and quickness exploit our deficiency. That will put us on the bubble and our RPI and SOS will play against us putting us just out to the NIT.

That's my projection.

why was not last year 10-8 BT record and tied with these 10-8 MSU, 10-8 NW and 10-8 Michigan wasn't tough enough,

why is the same lame excuse year after year [just wait till the schedule gets tougher BS]

 

[ICTrojans99]

I bought my tickets to MSG last month when CyTwins & his life partner 1976 informed me we won't be invited to the dance.

 

[And1Hawk]

I'll keep looking for the predictions thread from last year. But the old thread I found shows posters calling for Fran's head...talking hot seat. When you use words like "Kool-Aid" drinkers, I think you've got the wrong idea about our little group of prognosticators. Of course, I'm sure most like to forget their reasonable opinions.

As I've said, I don't consider you to be a Lemon Sucker. But this "Prepare for the NIT" thread appears to be a reaction from one game. If so, and you are just blowing off steam...ok. But you sure made it your mission to defend the thoughts and you can see how that worked out for another poster last year.

Anyway, I'm glad you are a Hawkeye fan. Don't really care if you are certain of your evaluations...I don't really get too certain which is why I call them "guesswork". And I suppose I can live with being one of the "Kool-Aid" drinkers as it turns out Fran is certainly not a Jim Jones kind of coach.

Fair points but I should have included the 'Meltdown Warriors' too with the Koolaid drinkers. Bottom line is I find my perspective to be somewhere in the middle plus or minus a few bad moments. See the big picture and not melt down on every setback either. I'm not a blow-it-up person especially with Fran.

Again the NIT is not the end goal but there should no shame in making this tourney either. In fact a home NIT game can be a lot of fun surprisingly. Some of the better atmospheres at Carver.

You might say it's just 3 or 5 games but it has been a key issue dating back to last season and it's not solved yet so it's more than 3 games.

We look to be vastly improved in the front court with the addition of two excellent freshman in Garza and Nunge. Moss will and is taking a step forward and can play D when motivated to. We still need another really good guard that can play both ends. I love JBo and his skills plus moxy but he's not going to be known for defense ever. We need someone else to spell Moss or JBO on an off night or difficult match-up. We do not have that player. Connor will be solid too but he's not going to be mistaken for a lock down defender either.

 

[ICTrojans99]

I'll keep looking for the predictions thread from last year. But the old thread I found shows posters calling for Fran's head...talking hot seat. When you use words like "Kool-Aid" drinkers, I think you've got the wrong idea about our little group of prognosticators. Of course, I'm sure most like to forget their reasonable opinions.

As I've said, I don't consider you to be a Lemon Sucker. But this "Prepare for the NIT" thread appears to be a reaction from one game. If so, and you are just blowing off steam...ok. But you sure made it your mission to defend the thoughts and you can see how that worked out for another poster last year.

Anyway, I'm glad you are a Hawkeye fan. Don't really care if you are certain of your evaluations...I don't really get too certain which is why I call them "guesswork". And I suppose I can live with being one of the "Kool-Aid" drinkers as it turns out Fran is certainly not a Jim Jones kind of coach.

Did somebody say Grape Drank ?

 

[PCBHAWK]

lets see Connor is a ESPN 4* TOP 100 PG and the best he can be is serviceable? what am I missing?

I watched Connor play a few times and I didnt see anything special. Im betting if Fran was not his dad, his star rating would fall.

 

[hawk-i bob]

Better go back and read my earlier post because I clearly mentioned although I go to many games I elected not to go in person last night to Grambling and watch from home instead due to distance. What part of that was not clear?

Your opinion on 3 games plus 2 exhibitions is fine. It's yours and I have mine and that opinion has been clearly stated.

No koolaid, hyperbole or name calling needed in mine. That is we are not capable of playing enough defense to get us into the big dance this year because of our lack of quickness and inability to stop dribble penetration. I think we are in need of an additional good guard for our backcourt that can play both ends. I happen to think we should give Dailey a strong look to see if he can be that third guard. Not sure he can but looking at our prospects behind Moss & JBo he might have the most potential to be that player. Brady is really solid, real good shooter when open and does not make mistakes but against high level competition he struggles to impact the game and can't play enough defense on the ball. He has a role but we need another guard.

I think we will be good and win our share of games but struggle at times when quality teams with athleticism and quickness exploit our deficiency. That will put us on the bubble and our RPI and SOS will play against us putting us just out to the NIT.

That's my projection.

Find where I posted or started a thread titled Prepare for NCAA....where I go on and on about how great I think our offense is & our ability to rebound compared to last year to state...WE'RE IN.

That is the difference between U & Me....U have to take it to a conclusion...its NIT folks....get prepared...sort of like the world is coming to the end...GET PREPARED...

its like because of my self ordained expertise we are not capable of playing defense to make the big dance. I see you fail to mention...when Iowa's defense held Grambling scoreless for over 6 minutes. OH wait ..doesnt fit...does it?

One has to be a real moron to start a thread like this after 3 games...fortunately the players on this team don't listen to people like you and your projection for March of 2018.

 

[doughawk]

Hey AND1, fellow Hawk fan here who is concerned about you. Anyone who is concluding that our team is doomed for the NIT after 3 regular season games while we are short 2 key players is clearly struggling with reality or depression.
I suggest you get on your bicycle in the morning and ride to the UI Childrens Hospital and ask for help. Tell the first Dr. you speak with that our team is only going to the NIT this season and it will be easy for him to diagnose your depression and get you the correct meds. Best of luck to you.
I'd stay away from watching further Iowa games to not drive you into further depression.
And for damn sure , don't watch our football team !

 

[Ronman]

It's amazing how one game, that I believe we won, can promote such controversy. How about if we wait until we lose one?

 

[RocknRollface]

Very bad luck with Connor getting Mono.

As to the game, once again we played man to man against a smaller, quicker opponent. Right up to the last when we shut them down with the zone.

Embrace the zone! With our length we can close out and cause problems for shooters.

I'm looking forward to seeing us use all the tools we've got in the Caymans.

I agree in part, we can clearly be more effective on d with a zone than this pitiful man to man.

But if Fran thought zone was the answere to everything, why even practice this man D?

Theres still going to be times when teams will shoot us out of a zone and will have to play man.

 

[DanL53]

I agree in part, we can clearly be more effective on d with a zone than this pitiful man to man.

But if Fran thought zone was the answer to everything, why even practice this man D?

Theres still going to be times when teams will shoot us out of a zone and will have to play man.

You answered your own question. The more work we get in man to man the better we will be when we have to be in it. We won't play all zone, we'll play a variety of zones plus man to man when we can get away with it. One thing for sure, with a near seven footer on the wing it is going to be tough for teams to defend him with a guard type guy. WE don't always have to be the team matching up, we can make them match up to us.

I'm not saying we'll be one of the best defensive teams in the Big Ten. But I think we can be decent. Our rebounding is already improved, that gives opponents less second chance opportunities. Our interior defense has already improved. If fact, I'm impressed with Garza's ability to not get in foul trouble. It took Woody three years to figure that out. I gotta say, watching Garza defend. He has these nasty little tricks with his arms and pressure points on his opponent. It's like, judo instead of boxing. And once guys like Cook learn to trust Luka they won't be coming over to help and leaving their guys open.

We still have problems defending penetration. But with better interior defense we won't get killed by it as often.

Here's something interesting, last years final standings and KenPom DE and OE:

Purdue 14-4, 23............................Wisconsin 9, 12-6......................Michigan 4
Wisconsin 12-6, 9.........................Minnesota 22, 11-7....................Purdue 24
Maryland 12-6, 64.........................Purdue 23, 14-4.........................Indiana 27
Minnesota 11-7, 22.......................Northwestern 32, 10-8................Wisconsin 33
Michigan State 10-8, 37................Illinois 35, 8-10...........................Maryland 41
Northwestern 10-8, 32..................Michigan State 37, 10-8.............Iowa 43
Iowa 10-8, 123..............................Penn State 51, 6-12...................Michigan St 58
Michigan 10-8, 69.........................Maryland 64, 12-6......................Northwestern 59
Illinois 8-10, 35.............................. Michigan 69, 10-8.....................Ohio State 60
Indiana 7-11, 104..........................Rutgers 70, 3-15........................Minnesota 77
Ohio State 7-11, 99.......................Nebraska 77, 6-12.....................Illinois 123
Nebraska 6-12, 77.........................Ohio State 99, 7-11...................Nebraska 157
Penn State 6-12, 51......................Indiana 104, 7-11.......................Penn State 168
Rutgers 3-15, 70............................Iowa 123, 10-8..........................Rutgers 231

Notice how there is a lot more correlation between offensive efficiency and actual results?

Michigan, Indiana and Minnesota are really the only three outliers.

But defensive efficiency?

Illinois? Penn State? Maryland? Rutgers? Iowa?

Why? Michigan's OE ranking of 4 to Illinois' ranking of 123 have a difference of 15.1 points per 100 possessions. Wisconisin's DE ranking of 9 is just 10.4 points per 100 possessions better than Iowa's 123.

In fact. If Iowa could have been just five points better defensively for every 100 possessions? We'd have ranked about 57th!

From what I've read (no link...can't remember where) there are usually about 80 possessions per team in college basketball.

If we can prevent four more points each game, that will get us to that 56-57th spot on DE. KenPom projects us at 76 right now. They also project us at 41 in OE.

76 and 41. Last year Maryland finished tied for second in the standings. Their rankings? 64 and 41.

I gotta wonder....we've still got so many young guys. Our offense looks immensely better....and apparently KenPom believes our defense is....

Of course the games have to be played.

 

[Aleister_Crowley]

Duke better also get ready for the NIT after only beating Southern by 17.

 

[RocknRollface]

I was a slow footed point guard and as long as I knew where my help was coming from and trusted that it was there. I was able to put pressure on opposing guards by just know the scheme and what I needed to take away. That's why I stress playing 8 cause you have to know each other and each other's tendencies. Teams like Kentucky can just line up superior athletes and lock you down. But there are other ways. Who was the last Wisconsin defender that you said was just to quick. It's scheme and trust.

Thats a good point, smaller rotations help with familiarity on defense too.

 

[nitewing]

I watched Connor play a few times and I didnt see anything special. Im betting if Fran was not his dad, his star rating would fall.

Fran being his father has nothing to do with his rating, he got those rating because of what he did on the AAU Circuit and the NBPA Top 100 camp and Nike Top 100 camp.

but with your superior knowledge vs the ExNBA Players that run the NBPA Camp, we should just take your word for it,

oh by the way which NBA Team are you a paid scout for?

 

[nitewing]

I agree in part, we can clearly be more effective on d with a zone than this pitiful man to man.

But if Fran thought zone was the answere to everything, why even practice this man D?

Theres still going to be times when teams will shoot us out of a zone and will have to play man.

because not every team plays 4 guards and 1 forward.
nor are that many teams that can put as many 3 point shooters on those teams at the lower level teams do at one time.

 

[JAMAM]

Nit? Why y'all talking about ISU? This is a Hawkeye board

 

[hawk-i bob]

You answered your own question. The more work we get in man to man the better we will be when we have to be in it. We won't play all zone, we'll play a variety of zones plus man to man when we can get away with it. One thing for sure, with a near seven footer on the wing it is going to be tough for teams to defend him with a guard type guy. WE don't always have to be the team matching up, we can make them match up to us.

I'm not saying we'll be one of the best defensive teams in the Big Ten. But I think we can be decent. Our rebounding is already improved, that gives opponents less second chance opportunities. Our interior defense has already improved. If fact, I'm impressed with Garza's ability to not get in foul trouble. It took Woody three years to figure that out. I gotta say, watching Garza defend. He has these nasty little tricks with his arms and pressure points on his opponent. It's like, judo instead of boxing. And once guys like Cook learn to trust Luka they won't be coming over to help and leaving their guys open.

We still have problems defending penetration. But with better interior defense we won't get killed by it as often.

Here's something interesting, last years final standings and KenPom DE and OE:

Purdue 14-4, 23............................Wisconsin 9, 12-6......................Michigan 4
Wisconsin 12-6, 9.........................Minnesota 22, 11-7....................Purdue 24
Maryland 12-6, 64.........................Purdue 23, 14-4.........................Indiana 27
Minnesota 11-7, 22.......................Northwestern 32, 10-8................Wisconsin 33
Michigan State 10-8, 37................Illinois 35, 8-10...........................Maryland 41
Northwestern 10-8, 32..................Michigan State 37, 10-8.............Iowa 43
Iowa 10-8, 123..............................Penn State 51, 6-12...................Michigan St 58
Michigan 10-8, 69.........................Maryland 64, 12-6......................Northwestern 59
Illinois 8-10, 35.............................. Michigan 69, 10-8.....................Ohio State 60
Indiana 7-11, 104..........................Rutgers 70, 3-15........................Minnesota 77
Ohio State 7-11, 99.......................Nebraska 77, 6-12.....................Illinois 123
Nebraska 6-12, 77.........................Ohio State 99, 7-11...................Nebraska 157
Penn State 6-12, 51......................Indiana 104, 7-11.......................Penn State 168
Rutgers 3-15, 70............................Iowa 123, 10-8..........................Rutgers 231

Notice how there is a lot more correlation between offensive efficiency and actual results?

Michigan, Indiana and Minnesota are really the only three outliers.

But defensive efficiency?

Illinois? Penn State? Maryland? Rutgers? Iowa?

Why? Michigan's OE ranking of 4 to Illinois' ranking of 123 have a difference of 15.1 points per 100 possessions. Wisconisin's DE ranking of 9 is just 10.4 points per 100 possessions better than Iowa's 123.

In fact. If Iowa could have been just five points better defensively for every 100 possessions? We'd have ranked about 57th!

From what I've read (no link...can't remember where) there are usually about 80 possessions per team in college basketball.

If we can prevent four more points each game, that will get us to that 56-57th spot on DE. KenPom projects us at 76 right now. They also project us at 41 in OE.

76 and 41. Last year Maryland finished tied for second in the standings. Their rankings? 64 and 41.

I gotta wonder....we've still got so many young guys. Our offense looks immensely better....and apparently KenPom believes our defense is....

Of course the games have to be played.

so we dont have to get prepared for the NIT? well at least as of Nov 18th.
it certainly does come down to scoring...for and against.

last year we were 12th in rebounding margin as well as defensive rebounds in the B1G...with the addition of Garza/Nunge...a year of experience of Cook/Pemsl/Kriener ..I would think our defense (scoring margins) will be better just from the rebounding aspect alone.

 

[DanL53]

You just reach out and squeeze the other guys funny bone........

You think he's gonna be thinking of receiving a pass? Nasty sh!t. He won't stick his elbow out at you again!

 

[DanL53]

so we dont have to get prepared for the NIT? well at least as of Nov 18th.
it certainly does come down to scoring...for and against.

last year we were 12th in rebounding margin as well as defensive rebounds in the B1G...with the addition of Garza/Nunge...a year of experience of Cook/Pemsl/Kriener ..I would think our defense (scoring margins) will be better just from the rebounding aspect alone.

We were NCAA worthy through the Big Ten...but still kept improving. It was the start of the season that hurt. With all those freshmen? Wonder why?

And you are right...rebounding is already a punch to the nose to the nay sayers.

 

[hawk-i bob]

I might add we were 4th in the B1G in offensive rebounding...with the addition of Garza/Nunge...shoot we might be a better offensive rebounding team ...which allow for chances for put backs...adds to the scoring column...but also reduces our opponents (especially those speedsters) to get out on the break for easier buckets..

 

[hawk-i bob]

and we will be a better team once Baer & McCaffery get on the floor...allows Fran to keep a fresh defender at the front of the press & trapping..
and allows Brady to return to his natural position.

so I think I'll defer until we get the entire team on the floor.

 

[And1Hawk]

I stole this from another site.....but I thought it interesting and pertinent to this discussion.......I think the RPI is crap, but that said I think this is totally realistic and an RPI of 39 would not seem to be a problem, would it?

A lot of people are worried about our RPI when it comes down to selection Sunday. If Iowa makes it to the Cayman Islands Classic final and loses to Cincinnati here is their RPI projection:


Iowa
W-L RPI* SOS
21-10 39 77

http://www.rpiforecast.com/

Very cool site. If I read this correctly they are forecasting our record to be 17-12 with an RPI of 95.9. I assume this does not include the unknown matchups in the pre-season tourney and B1G conference tourney. We all agree 17 wins is lower than we think. Grambling's forecasted RPI is 320 by the way which is worse than Southern's.

According to this forecast there is less than a 8% chance of which of winning 21+ games. The primary % odds when you add them up (around 70%) is winning between 15-20 games.

Per forecast
20 wins - 53 RPI
19 wins - 65 RPI
18 wins - 79 RPI

Some of you know better than I do but I think the tricky spot of the NCAA bubble is around 65-70 RPI mark.

This is a forecast only and the RPI will be driven by who we beat and lose too within our W-L mark. The forecasts for a bid are in our favor if we get in the 20-21+ win mark with no major dings to bad RPI teams. If we end up around 19 with a ding or two that's where the sweating is going to take place. This all assumes health of JBO and other key players. I agree no ones prediction is valid if we have unexpected injuries.

DanL posted an informative piece on data analytics with offensive and defensive efficiency and spelled out how close the margin is between being effective and ineffective. It's swings of 5-10 points per game. That's my thing. Do we have the ability to keep someone in front of us enough where we do not have to rely on junk defenses or doubling? I'm ok with some zone and the mixing of defense is something I love about Fran. The issue is if we have to rely to too heavily on junking only because we cannot stay in front and pressure the opponent at all. We have all seen the malee of doubling to stop penetration or lengthy zoning that leaves opponents wide open for easy looks. Issues lead to performances like UNO last year. Many think that's the game that kept us out as we finished with 19 wins. That's how close our margins are.

The Caymans trip will be big as Louisiana Lafayette has an RPI of 168 which is like UNO
last year. Then a matchup with Wyoming/SDSU - same thing. We need to win these first two games.

ISU's RPI is 150'ish. That could be a bad loss if they end up not having the type of year they normally have or not the good road win it typically could have been if we win. Talk about bad luck for us.

There's also going to be 5-10 one score, final possessions type contests where will need to get a stop. Can this team do it to put us over the top or will we be sweating like I am projecting.

 

[DanL53]

Very cool site. If I read this correctly they are forecasting our record to be 17-12 with an RPI of 95.9. I assume this does not include the unknown matchups in the pre-season tourney and B1G conference tourney. We all agree 17 wins is lower than we think. Grambling's forecasted RPI is 320 by the way which is worse than Southern's.

According to this forecast there is less than a 8% chance of which of winning 21+ games. The primary % odds when you add them up (around 70%) is winning between 15-20 games.

Per forecast
20 wins - 53 RPI
19 wins - 65 RPI
18 wins - 79 RPI

Some of you know better than I do but I think the tricky spot of the NCAA bubble is around 65-70 RPI mark.

This is a forecast only and the RPI will be driven by who we beat and lose too within our W-L mark. The forecasts for a bid are in our favor if we get in the 20-21+ win mark with no major dings to bad RPI teams. If we end up around 19 with a ding or two that's where the sweating is going to take place. This all assumes health of JBO and other key players. I agree no ones prediction is valid if we have unexpected injuries.

DanL posted an informative piece on data analytics with offensive and defensive efficiency and spelled out how close the margin is between being effective and ineffective. It's swings of 5-10 points per game. That's my thing. Do we have the ability to keep someone in front of us enough where we do not have to rely on junk defenses or doubling? I'm ok with some zone and the mixing of defense is something I love about Fran. The issue is if we have to rely to too heavily on junking only because we cannot stay in front and pressure the opponent at all. We have all seen the malee of doubling to stop penetration or lengthy zoning that leaves opponents wide open for easy looks. Issues lead to performances like UNO last year. Many think that's the game that kept us out as we finished with 19 wins. That's how close our margins are.

The Caymans trip will be big as Louisiana Lafayette has an RPI of 168 which is like UNO
last year. Then a matchup with Wyoming/SDSU - same thing. We need to win these first two games.

ISU's RPI is 150'ish. That could be a bad loss if they end up not having the type of year they normally have or not the good road win it typically could have been if we win. Talk about bad luck for us.

There's also going to be 5-10 one score, final possessions type contests where will need to get a stop. Can this team do it to put us over the top or will we be sweating like I am projecting.

Also, that four point swing I was talking about? Are we going to be any worse at stopping penetration than last year? Jok and Williams are gone...the rest remains the same except for a years experience. So if we are no better or worse in that area, won't our improved rebounding and interior defense mean something?

Thanks by the way for the report on our Cayman Island opponents. A great indicator of where we are at the moment is just days away.

 

[hawk-i bob]

I dont consider zone defenses or trapping or forcing the opponent to use some clock bringing the ball up (with even a soft press) as junk defenses...they are an effective way to limit your opponents ability & opportunity to shoot..let alone score.

When Grambling went cold and did not score a single basket for over 6 minutes..it was the zone along with shortened shot clocks via the token press that led to that.

 

[DanL53]

I dont consider zone defenses or trapping or forcing the opponent to use some clock bringing the ball up (with even a soft press) as junk defenses...they are an effective way to limit your opponents ability & opportunity to shoot..let alone score.

When Grambling went cold and did not score a single basket for over 6 minutes..it was the zone along with shortened shot clocks via the token press that led to that.

Yeah...having a Baer or a Nunge at the top of a 1-3-1 anticipating passes and enjoying layups off of steals? That's junk!

And if Garza get's in trouble for squeezing funny bones, he also has this neat way of putting a forearm right into a kidney.

 

[And1Hawk]

Also, that four point swing I was talking about? Are we going to be any worse at stopping penetration than last year? Jok and Williams are gone...the rest remains the same except for a years experience. So if we are no better or worse in that area, won't our improved rebounding and interior defense mean something?

Thanks by the way for the report on our Cayman Island opponents. A great indicator of where we are at the moment is just days away.

I do agree that our interior looks improved and we have true depth so foul trouble is not as big of an issue along the front line when trying to defend the basket from dribble penetration. Increased rebounding should also help limit 2nd chance points. Those two things should improve our defensive efficiency some. The question is how much?

We still know there will be 5-10 last possessions, one score type games regardless where we need a stop in the man-2-man. You don't see zone as much in this tight late games for obvious reasons unless your Syracuse.

I'm already sweating more on the Caymans first two match-ups than I am a potential 3rd round matchup with Cincy. These first two are the ones we absolutely have to win. Louisiana Lafayette is exactly one of those sneaky bad RPI loss teams like a UNO. It's on a nuetral court with no energy so anything can happen. SDSU made the tourney last year and Wyoming is typically solid. I think we will have a better idea after this tourney of where we are at and who are the true players Fran trusts on both ends if we get into a dog fight.

 

[Ngnosis hwk scence]

Gibberish, all gibberish. Especially for those who post, go to some games and think they know it all.

Worse yet is they who post not in complete sentences or paragraphs.

Along with all of this nonsense the Hawks have played 3 home games and not one of us knows anything.

Go Hawks!!!

 

[nitewing]

Very cool site. If I read this correctly they are forecasting our record to be 17-12 with an RPI of 95.9. I assume this does not include the unknown matchups in the pre-season tourney and B1G conference tourney. We all agree 17 wins is lower than we think. Grambling's forecasted RPI is 320 by the way which is worse than Southern's.

According to this forecast there is less than a 8% chance of which of winning 21+ games. The primary % odds when you add them up (around 70%) is winning between 15-20 games.

Per forecast
20 wins - 53 RPI
19 wins - 65 RPI
18 wins - 79 RPI

Some of you know better than I do but I think the tricky spot of the NCAA bubble is around 65-70 RPI mark.

This is a forecast only and the RPI will be driven by who we beat and lose too within our W-L mark. The forecasts for a bid are in our favor if we get in the 20-21+ win mark with no major dings to bad RPI teams. If we end up around 19 with a ding or two that's where the sweating is going to take place. This all assumes health of JBO and other key players. I agree no ones prediction is valid if we have unexpected injuries.

DanL posted an informative piece on data analytics with offensive and defensive efficiency and spelled out how close the margin is between being effective and ineffective. It's swings of 5-10 points per game. That's my thing. Do we have the ability to keep someone in front of us enough where we do not have to rely on junk defenses or doubling? I'm ok with some zone and the mixing of defense is something I love about Fran. The issue is if we have to rely to too heavily on junking only because we cannot stay in front and pressure the opponent at all. We have all seen the malee of doubling to stop penetration or lengthy zoning that leaves opponents wide open for easy looks. Issues lead to performances like UNO last year. Many think that's the game that kept us out as we finished with 19 wins. That's how close our margins are.

The Caymans trip will be big as Louisiana Lafayette has an RPI of 168 which is like UNO
last year. Then a matchup with Wyoming/SDSU - same thing. We need to win these first two games.

ISU's RPI is 150'ish. That could be a bad loss if they end up not having the type of year they normally have or not the good road win it typically could have been if we win. Talk about bad luck for us.

There's also going to be 5-10 one score, final possessions type contests where will need to get a stop. Can this team do it to put us over the top or will we be sweating like I am projecting.

Iowa won 19 games with a far younger team and 10-8 in BT play, so with a year under the FR's belt and a full year of BT play, replacing a 1st Team All BT Player and 2nd Team AA who avg'd 18.9 ppg in Uthoff and 3 other SR's, why are you expecting this team to do worse?

it makes no sense. 5 of this years team started at one point. and they add 1 6'11 and 1 7' player this is what that team was missing last season.
JBo
Moss
Wagner
Cook
Pemsl

 

[And1Hawk]

Iowa won 19 games with a far younger team and 10-8 in BT play, so with a year under the FR's belt and a full year of BT play, replacing a 1st Team All BT Player and 2nd Team AA who avg'd 18.9 ppg in Uthoff and 3 other SR's, why are you expecting this team to do worse?

it makes no sense. 5 of this years team started at one point. and they add 1 6'11 and 1 7' player this is what that team was missing last season.
JBo
Moss
Wagner
Cook
Pemsl

Do we play the same schedule every year and no other teams return experience, bring in highly regarded freshman/transfers or return any experience? Only Iowa improves.

 

[And1Hawk]

I dont consider zone defenses or trapping or forcing the opponent to use some clock bringing the ball up (with even a soft press) as junk defenses...they are an effective way to limit your opponents ability & opportunity to shoot..let alone score.

When Grambling went cold and did not score a single basket for over 6 minutes..it was the zone along with shortened shot clocks via the token press that led to that.

Fair point as I do like the 1-3-1 and/or zone press with Nunge/Baer type length up top. What Fran does best though is mix it up unless he finds something that's stifling an opponent.

I'm not a fan of doubling when in the man-2-man in the half court. Our doubling often comes though off of a break down from dribble penetration starting with the guards,,, usually the point. We also to do a poor job of hedging up top. Our bigs go too far picking up silly fouls or allowing the corner to be turned on dribble penetration putting us in a scramble position. Far too many easy baskets and great looks.

We were effective for the 6 minute stretch against Grambling so that's a valid point. I will say though part of what makes a team crappy and a 300+ RPI is an inability to complete a play. Was our defense great or did Grambling also contribute by missing some great looks/plays? Likely a little bit of both. The type of plays that were missed will likely be made when the quality of the opponent improves and thus exposure possibilities.

But I do agree with you and others in that because we cannot stop dribble penetration head up from one or both guard positions then we will likely have to junk it up and use what we do have and that's our length. We do not have great quickness especially laterally.

 

[Letsgohawks411]

It’s the same problem Iowa b-ball has always had TOO DAMN WHITE! Most white guys have their feet in cement on defense and struggle taking a defender off the dribble on offense. I know, I know, I must be a racist but it’s true. The same reason you never see a white cornerback in football. No lateral quickness. Again, I must be racist since there has not been a white cornerback in the NFL forever. Iowa hasn’t had a white cornerback for decades. Facts, not racism.

 

[hawkland14]

I totally agree that we do not have the foot speed in the backcourt. The big 10 is loaded with MSU, Minnesota, Purdue, Maryland, Northwestern and Wisconsin looks darn good too. I really like our guards, but they will get exposed against quicker guards.

 

[IllQChawk]

it looks like an NIT year. The biggest issue is the backcourt is in need of another vey good player. Not enough lateral quickness out front leads to a tremendous number of defensive break downs.

You're a moron...just like those that voted for our moron president, they too had an opinion, but it's only an opinion and nothing more. I hope at the end of the year you'll come back and revisit this site, your opinion is as worthless as the early season prognosticators predictions for the next NCAA tournament. This team is much better then you or anyone thinks and it will be proven on the court and not on any message boards...

 

[And1Hawk]

You're a moron...just like those that voted for our moron president, they too had an opinion, but it's only an opinion and nothing more. I hope at the end of the year you'll come back and revisit this site, your opinion is as worthless as the early season prognosticators predictions for the next NCAA tournament. This team is much better then you or anyone thinks and it will be proven on the court and not on any message boards...

Good analysis and insights. Why wouldn't I revisit?

 

[Phenomenally Frantastic]

lets see Connor is a ESPN 4* TOP 100 PG and the best he can be is serviceable? what am I missing?

An eye for talent?

 

[Phenomenally Frantastic]

Iowa won 19 games with a far younger team and 10-8 in BT play, so with a year under the FR's belt and a full year of BT play, replacing a 1st Team All BT Player and 2nd Team AA who avg'd 18.9 ppg in Uthoff and 3 other SR's, why are you expecting this team to do worse?

it makes no sense. 5 of this years team started at one point. and they add 1 6'11 and 1 7' player this is what that team was missing last season.
JBo
Moss
Wagner
Cook
Pemsl

Past results do not guarantee future outcomes.

 

[nitewing]

Do we play the same schedule every year and no other teams return experience, bring in highly regarded freshman/transfers or return any experience? Only Iowa improves.

that like saying none of Iowa players improved, basically the same players come back except Wiscinsin lost 4 starters and Iowa beat them at Wisconsin, Iowa won their last game @ Marylnd they lose Trimble and they are to get better, Purdue lost Swanigan and is going to be better.

and yet Iowa is going to get worse. not likely.