When I look at the brackets, it seems we have a good probability of playing in Omaha the 1st weekend if we can get a 4 seed. Kansas is definitely going to anchor one of the pods. However, the next team to anchor a pod is murky at best. Our competition seems to be either Colorado or Wisconsin. Am I missing something? The 1st weekend in Omaha would be a huge advantage.
Probability of Omaha
- Thread starter Teldar
- Start date
The Michigan St. loss and their corresponding surge hurts. Most B1G teams would get Omaha in that 4 seed range. Louisville may get it too.
Cleveland and Greensboro are almost locked up by Dayton, Maryland, Kentucky, and Duke. St. Louis is going to Baylor and probably Creighton.
Whoever is sitting at 14 is likely to get Omaha, 15 to Tampa and 16 out west to Sacramento.
Cleveland and Greensboro are almost locked up by Dayton, Maryland, Kentucky, and Duke. St. Louis is going to Baylor and probably Creighton.
Whoever is sitting at 14 is likely to get Omaha, 15 to Tampa and 16 out west to Sacramento.
So we need Maryland to crater so they go to Tampa & definitely root against MSU?
Maryland probably doesn't matter. They and PSU are the B1G teams that won't want Omaha since they're so far east. They'll want the Greensboro/Cleveland/Albany pods. Maryland is nearly a lock for Greensboro, Penn St. needs to win to get Albany from Seton Hall & Villanova.
Can someone help me out here? I'm seeing Omaha as the 8/9 seed games. Where does the 4 seed come in to play?
There are 2 pods per site. Kansas will take one (which is the 8/9 you're seeing). There isn't another team on lines 2 or 3 currently that would want the Omaha pod over other sites. So When you get to the 4 seeds, the remaining pods are something like Omaha, Tampa, Sacramento, and Spokane (depending on if Oregon is a 3 or 4 - they'll take Spokane).
I guess I'm confused on the process. So looking at Lunardi's projections right now, he has the Kansas 1/16 and 8/9 games in Omaha, as well as the Baylor 1/16 and 8/9 games. Are you saying those specific seeds being in Omaha isn't set in stone?
Right, they could be different seeds from different parts of the bracket. They try and give the top 4 seeds the closest commute possible to the first weekend games. If KU is the 1 in the Midwest region then that 1/16 game and the corresponding 8/9 game in that bracket would also be placed there.
The other group headed to Omaha could be Iowa if they were to get the 4 seed in the South bracket. The Iowa 4/13 game would go to Omaha along with the 5/12 game from the South bracket.
Thanks makes a little more sense. So if Kansas went to Omaha then Baylor couldn't also go to Omaha? Is that why the second Omaha pairing would move from the 1/16/8/9 games to the 4/13/5/12 games?
Baylor could still go.
It could literally be any other group from any bracket. It could be another 1/16 and 8/9 grouping or it could be a 2/15 and 7/10 grouping. Their only goal is to have the top 4 seeds travel the least amount of distance.
Most bracketologists actually have Baylor headed to St. Louis, as it is actually closer than Omaha. So if Baylor takes Omaha, you can slot in St. Louis as the hope for the Hawks, although there is more competition, as St. Louis is more centrally located and more preferable for certain East Coast schools.
Omaha or St. Louis should have a huge Hawkeye turnout.
The pod system is just breaking up the tournament into 16 4 team tournaments. Each of the 16 pods are independent from the others.
The committee moved to this system to help keep teams closer to their geographic preferences while maintaining balance as to a team's true seed.
Can Creighton even go to Omaha? Are they hosting that site?
You are correct that Creighton is the host school for the Omaha site, and cannot play an opening weekend game there
Thanks, slipped my mind while running through the scenario. That is why the Omaha site is likely to be open until the 4 seed line (unless the committee does actually assign Baylor & Kansas both there).
Don't really pay much attention to brackets until about now. As I see it, I would love to see Iowa in Spokane as a 4 or 5, and then come to Houston for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. Selfish, but possible, and I would try to be there in Houston.
If we landed in Omaha or St Louis and are not a 3 seed, it’s basically nothing but luck.
There are far more likely ways to die in Omaha than from coronavirus...
I still think we should take Creighton's projected 4 seed off their hands.
They don't really need it, after all.....
They don't really need it, after all.....
Iowa would Likely have to be the 1st 4 seed to get Omaha. Things would have to fall perfectly.
Louisville would be slotted there at this moment if we believe they are the first 4 seed.
Look at it like a draft for the top 16 teams by miles from campus to the playing location. The first thing they set is the region. So, Kansas being the overall 1 seed gets first pick. Indy and the Midwest region is closest to their campus. Then we need to place Kansas to the closest location for their 1st and second round games. Omaha for them and the 16, 8, and 9 seed which would complete their pod. Rinse and repeat for teams 2-16 being very literal from distance to campus to playing locations. Of course there are other rules like teams from same conference can’t meet until Regional final if both teams fall in the Top 16. Creighton and Seton Hall would be a good example if a 2 and 3 that can’t play until the Regional final
1 Seeds: Kansas (Omaha), Baylor (St Louis or Omaha), San Diego St (Sacramento), Gonzaga (Spokane)
2 Seeds: Seton Hall (Albany), Dayton (Cleveland), Maryland (Albany or Greensboro), FSU (Tampa)
3 Seeds: Kentucky and Louisville (Greensboro or St Louis or Cleveland), Villanova (Albany), Duke (Greensboro)
4 Seeds: Mich St , Creighton, Oregon (Sacramento or Spokane), Penn St
Omaha: Kansas (1)
St Louis: Baylor (1), Kentucky (3)
Sacramento: SDSU (1)
Spokane: Gonaga (1), Oregon (4)
Albany: Seton Hall (2), Villanova (3)
Cleveland: Dayton (2), Louisville (3)
Greensboro: Maryland (2), Duke (3)
Tampa: FSU (2)
MSU (4), PSU (4), Creighton (4)
I used ESPN's Bracketology to get the seed breakdowns. Iowa's chances of going to Omaha largely hinges on where the committee sends Baylor. There is no site close to Waco. St Louis and Omaha are both roughly 11ish hours away so not close. If Iowa can jump to the 3 line, Omaha is certainly in play.
2 Seeds: Seton Hall (Albany), Dayton (Cleveland), Maryland (Albany or Greensboro), FSU (Tampa)
3 Seeds: Kentucky and Louisville (Greensboro or St Louis or Cleveland), Villanova (Albany), Duke (Greensboro)
4 Seeds: Mich St , Creighton, Oregon (Sacramento or Spokane), Penn St
Omaha: Kansas (1)
St Louis: Baylor (1), Kentucky (3)
Sacramento: SDSU (1)
Spokane: Gonaga (1), Oregon (4)
Albany: Seton Hall (2), Villanova (3)
Cleveland: Dayton (2), Louisville (3)
Greensboro: Maryland (2), Duke (3)
Tampa: FSU (2)
MSU (4), PSU (4), Creighton (4)
I used ESPN's Bracketology to get the seed breakdowns. Iowa's chances of going to Omaha largely hinges on where the committee sends Baylor. There is no site close to Waco. St Louis and Omaha are both roughly 11ish hours away so not close. If Iowa can jump to the 3 line, Omaha is certainly in play.
Baylor is locked into SL because of distance. It’s really close but they are locked in.
True. The next closest is St. Louis and that's 475 miles. I would also be happy with this.
Right now Iowa is considered to be the last 5 seed per bracketmatrix. Unfortunately SL wouldn’t happen in that scenario. Think West. We need to finish really strong to get a good slot at the 4 or 5.
