Projecting the final popular vote total

[TJ8869]

Several times this week I’ve seen posters claiming Harris got 13 million fewer votes than Biden and I have tried repeatedly to remind them that not all the ballots have been counted.

In order to get some idea what the final totals will look like, I extrapolated the current totals in DC and the 11 states that still have at least 3% of their ballots left to count - California, Colorado, Maryland, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Alaska, Nevada, New York, and Utah.

If my math is correct, if we assign the remaining votes to each candidate based on their current percentages in each of those states, Harris will get another 5,618,163 votes and Trump will get another 4,097,998 votes.

Harris currently has 70,355,827 and Trump currently has 74,263,792. That would result in a final tally of 75,973,990 votes for Harris and 78,361,790 votes for Trump.

Make of that what you will.

 

[pjhawk]

It looks like Trump very well may dip below 50% in the popular vote, restoring a little of my faith in the American people. Big landslide, 1.5% victory, much smaller than Bush in 04, Obama in 12 and Biden in 20. Big mandate.

Again, it's incredibly irritating that the great mass of the American people are going to think Trump won a much larger victory than Biden in 20 just because Trump is a fascist and a criminal and refused to concede once the election was called in the days after the election.

 

[The Tradition]

It looks like Trump very well may dip below 50% in the popular vote, restoring a little of my faith in the American people. Big landslide, 1.5% victory, much smaller than Bush in 04, Obama in 12 and Biden in 20. Big mandate.

Again, it's incredibly irritating that the great mass of the American people are going to think Trump won a much larger victory than Biden in 20 just because Trump is a fascist and a criminal and refused to concede once the election was called in the days after the election.

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You would think "Other" would have done better this year.

 

[Hawked]

You would think "Other" would have done better this year.

Not really. Those "not voting for Trump" voted for Trump.

 

[ottumwan in tx]

Not really. Those "not voting for Trump" voted for Trump.

most people I know are not scared to admit it

 

[pjhawk]

 

[ottumwan in tx]

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ok, so now the dems have a moral victory by not losing in a landslide. this is like iowa losing to ohio state by 20 instead of 30- like it is a good thing. nope. he won all of the states which were an issue. all of them, and the popular vote. that is a butt kicking. that is like a 50-10 football score.

 

[onlyTheObvious]

A Republican winning the popular vote by any margin is a butt kicking.

 

[BioHawk]

ok, so now the dems have a moral victory by not losing in a landslide. this is like iowa losing to ohio state by 20 instead of 30- like it is a good thing. nope. he won all of the states which were an issue. all of them, and the popular vote. that is a butt kicking. that is like a 50-10 football score.

True, but it does mean it is not the mandate they were hoping for. Not that not having an actual mandate will stop them from claiming they do and act like its a massive mandate anyway.

 

[The Tradition]

True, but it does mean it is not the mandate they were hoping for. Not that not having an actual mandate will stop them from claiming they do and act like its a massive mandate anyway.

Good grief. Now we're parsing mandates?

 

[pjhawk]

A Republican winning the popular vote by any margin is a butt kicking.

But it isn't for a Democrat, got it.

 

[Aardvark86]

If the total votes end up being close to 2020 count me as relieved. I am a total skeptic about the idea that 2020 was somehow fixed, and imo Covid created a strong presumption of normalcy to easily explain higher 2020 turnout.

But if the aggregate count had dropped to the degree people were suggesting, I might have had to reconsider whether that presumption was rebutted.

 

[pjhawk]

ok, so now the dems have a moral victory by not losing in a landslide. this is like iowa losing to ohio state by 20 instead of 30- like it is a good thing. nope. he won all of the states which were an issue. all of them, and the popular vote. that is a butt kicking. that is like a 50-10 football score.

So you're saying Biden and the Democrats won 50-10 in 2020?

 

[RagnarLothbrok]

Several times this week I’ve seen posters claiming Harris got 13 million fewer votes than Biden and I have tried repeatedly to remind them that not all the ballots have been counted.

In order to get some idea what the final totals will look like, I extrapolated the current totals in DC and the 11 states that still have at least 3% of their ballots left to count - California, Colorado, Maryland, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Alaska, Nevada, New York, and Utah.

If my math is correct, if we assign the remaining votes to each candidate based on their current percentages in each of those states, Harris will get another 5,618,163 votes and Trump will get another 4,097,998 votes.

Harris currently has 70,355,827 and Trump currently has 74,263,792. That would result in a final tally of 75,973,990 votes for Harris and 78,361,790 votes for Trump.

Make of that what you will.

Didn’t Biden get over 81 million? That means Harris is about 6 million behind him.

If Trump gets 78 million, that means 4 million more people voted for him this time around than 2020.

I understand not wanting to vote for Kamala. I will never understand wanting to vote for a child. Frankly, I don’t ever want to get it.

 

[TJ8869]

Didn’t Biden get over 81 million? That means Harris is about 6 million behind him.

Biden got about 81 million. Harris is probably going to end up with about 76 million, so about 5 million less.

 

[RagnarLothbrok]

Biden got about 81 million. Harris is probably going to end up with about 76 million, so about 5 million less.

Still significant in my book.

 

[RagnarLothbrok]

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This is nothing more than liberals trying to put lipstick on a pig.

Donald Trump is old, unhinged, an imbecile, and steadily approaching senility. Democrats could have put out any average candidate and would have won in a landslide. Instead, they went with Kamala and got their asses handed to them.

There is no other way to look at it.

 

[DirtyJohns97]

The record is what the record is and Trump is 2-1. That said he has a pretty weak SOS, the only time he went up against another male, he lost.

 

[pjhawk]

If the total votes end up being close to 2020 count me as relieved. I am a total skeptic about the idea that 2020 was somehow fixed, and imo Covid created a strong presumption of normalcy to easily explain higher 2020 turnout.

But if the aggregate count had dropped to the degree people were suggesting, I might have had to reconsider whether that presumption was rebutted.

Oh FFS. Look at the wanting to sound "reasonable" and "balanced" Federalist Society Maga. Every election a Democrat wins is automatically suspect until "proven" otherwise.

Fascists.

 

[onlyTheObvious]

But it isn't for a Democrat, got it.

It’s the third time since 1988.

You can argue against facts if you want.

 

[pjhawk]

It’s the third time since 1988.

You can argue against facts if you want.

Wut? What facts am I arguing against? You're saying any Republican popular vote win is a butt kicking but far bigger Democratic wins like Biden in 20 or any of Obama's wins aren't?

Trump is almost certainly going to win the popular vote by a smaller percentage margin than Hillary did in 2016. Did Hillary win in a "butt kicking" in 2016?

 

[Aardvark86]

Oh FFS. Look at the wanting to sound "reasonable" and "balanced" Federalist Society Maga. Every election a Democrat wins is automatically suspect until "proven" otherwise.

Fascists.

Precisely the opposite actually.

But if there had been a one time spike and reversion to the norm of the magnitude suggested, I’d tap the brakes.

 

[pjhawk]

 

[CarolinaHawkeye]

most people I know are not scared to admit it

Might the only thing you've posted, that I believe.