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Puerto Rico In Economic Collapse

Nat Algren

HB Legend
Nov 23, 2014
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http://researchroom.economicpolicyjournal.com/2016/01/january-15-2016-honorable-paul-ryan.html

Sunday, January 17, 2016

January 15, 2016


The Honorable Paul Ryan
Speaker
U.S. House of Representatives
Washington, DC 20515

Dear Mr. Speaker:

I write to update you and your colleagues on Puerto Rico's debt crisis. I appreciate the recent
commitment by congressional leadership to produce a responsible solution for Puerto Rico. In
order to assist the 3.5 million Americans living in Puerto Rico, Congress must pass legislation
for the President to sign into law before the end of March.

Although there are many ways this crisis could escalate further, it is clear that Puerto Rico is
already in the midst of an economic collapse. As part of the Administration's longstanding
engagement with the Commonwealth, I will meet with community and business leaders in Puerto
Rico on the immense challenges the Commonwealth faces, and at Treasury we will continue to
bring our full capabilities to bear in the provision and delivery of assistance to Puerto Rico. But
our existing tools are not sufficient for a comprehensive solution.

Puerto Rico is already in default. It is shifting funds from one creditor to pay another and has
stopped payment altogether on several of its debts. As predicted, creditors are filing lawsuits.
The Government Development Bank, which provides critical banking and fiscal services to the
central government, only avoided depleting its liquidity by halting lending activity and sweeping
in additional deposits from other Puerto Rico governmental entities. A large debt payment of
$400 million is due on May 1, and a broader set of payments are due at the end of June.

Puerto Rico has been shut out of the municipal bond market for more than two years and ran out
of the funding sources traditionally used to finance government operations more than six months
ago. In response to the crisis, Puerto Rico has taken a series of dramatic steps to raise revenues
and reduce costs. Government spending, net of debt service, has already been cut to the lowest
level since 2005. More than 70 percent of the remaining central government employees are
teachers, nurses, firefighters, police officers, or other public safety workers.

More recently, Puerto Rico has resorted to a series of onerous and unsustainable emergency
liquidity measures, including selling assets from already depleted pension funds; borrowing from
the workers compensation and other insurance funds; and withholding hundreds of millions of
dollars in tax refunds owed to its citizens. Not only do these actions affect the most vulnerable
citizens in Puerto Rico, the unpaid obligations do not go away; they simply accumulate and make
long-term recovery even harder to achieve.

The worsening fiscal and economic situation means real suffering for the people of Puerto Rico:
basic healthcare, legal, and education services have been impaired. For example, the
government's cash flow squeeze has caused some hospitals to begin closing floors and curtailing
services. The unemployment rate, at over 12 percent, is more than double the U.S. average.

Nearly 10 percent of the population has left since 2006. In the first six months of2015, each
week nearly 3,000 Puerto Ricans left the Island in search of better opportunities on the mainland.
To address the crisis, Puerto Rico needs federal legislation that pairs an orderly process to
restructure its debts with strong, independent fiscal oversight to remedy its history of fiscal
mismanagement. This combination is not new and has proven effective in other jurisdictions in
the United States addressing financial crises like that facing Puerto Rico today. Federally
legislated restructuring and oversight would cost taxpayers nothing and is essential to put Puerto
Rico on a sustainable path forward. In addition, legislation that improves health care policies
and encourages work would help solve Puerto Rico's longer-run challenges. A broad array of
business, labor, and community leaders strongly support this package of proposals.
 
Seems to be doing okay to me...
641150b189dfdaf94b6d2db900fac5d6.jpg
 
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Reactions: ChrisVarick
We will still have to bail them out. That's what is going to happen. New York in the 1970s, the auto industry, Puerto Rico's problem can only be solved by a big cash infusion from Uncle Sam. I don't like it but that is my prediction.

The banks got a bail out. That's just what we do.
 
It's gorgeous there. Warm and sunny all the time. Plus, those people do magical things to make tasty pork dishes. I say help them out. Our insatiable appetite for illegal drugs is one of the bigger burdens on PR, so it is fitting that we help them out.
 
It should be the greatest vacation destination in the Caribbean. Instead, it's a mess thanks to government interference.


What's wrong?

Puerto Rico's problems aren't just a result of the financial crisis.

First of all, Puerto Rico is an island. As on any island, stuff is just more expensive there. Yet because of an obscure law known as the Jones Act, which bans foreign vessels from shipping goods between U.S. ports, businesses in Puerto Rico have to use the U.S. merchant marine to import anything. They can't just hire whatever boats and crew are available, which makes shipping even more expensive. The cost of transportation in Puerto Rico is twice that in the neighboring Caribbean nations, according to the report, which was written by economists Anne Krueger, Ranjit Teja and Andrew Wolfe.

The economists also note that the past decade's high oil prices have been hard on the island's economy, which relies on imported fossil fuels for power. A kilowatt-hour of electricity costs 22 cents, which is more than twice the average rate of 10 cents in the United States as whole.

For decades, Puerto Rico’s economy was powered by U.S. firms, particularly shoe factories and pharmaceutical firms. These companies set up factories that hired relatively low-cost workers and book profits under favorable tax laws.

Some economists say that the island's recent troubles began when a lucrative tax credit for manufacturers that was helping to prop up the economy was phased out in 2006.

Another problem is that just 40 percent of the population has a job—or is even looking for one. That figure has plummeted in recent years. In the United States as a whole, it is 62.9 percent.

Why are so few people working or looking for work?

The report cites one surprising problem: the federal minimum wage, which is at the same level in Puerto Rico as in the rest of the country, even though the economy there is so much weaker. There are probably some people who would like to work, but because of the sickly economy, businesses can't afford to pay them the minimum wage.

Someone working full time for the minimum wage earns $15,080 a year, which isn't that much less than the median income in Puerto Rico of $19,624.

The report also cites regulations and restrictions that make it difficult to set up new businesses and hire workers, although it's difficult to know just how large an effect these rules might or might not have on the labor market.

A report by the New York Fed also suggests that Puerto Rico has a relatively large underground economy employing a big part of the population. These workers aren't taxed or counted in formal employment numbers.

In any case, it's relatively expensive to hire and pay workers in Puerto Rico, which along with the high cost of transportation, energy and other goods, means that fewer tourists are planning trips to Puerto Rico than they were a decade ago and the number of hotel beds is the same as it was four decades ago, according to Krueger and her colleagues.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...are-getting-really-bad-what-you-need-to-know/
 
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