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Race to 270 . . . 6/3/2020 . . .

AuroraHawk

AuroraHawk

HR Heisman
Dec 18, 2004
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Latest data (6/3/2020) from 270towin.com: https://www.270towin.com

I'm far more interested in the state polling than national polling. I wanted to post this as it will be interesting to see how the percentages "shift" after this past week's activities. Looks like 12 states, including Iowa, will be the focus of the respective campaigns. This is my "go to" site for polling/trends.

Data as of today strongly suggests that this is going to be a really tight race. Biden may be leading in the state polling but there are a large number of undecideds and historical data doesn't necessarily trend well for him. Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania are the states that I'm watching most closely.

Electoral votes in states safe or likely for Biden: 209
Electoral votes in states leaning Biden: 14
Electoral votes in states tilting Biden: 36
TOTAL: 268

Electoral votes in states safe or likely for DT Barnum: 125
Electoral votes in states leaning DT Barnum: 56
Electoral votes in states tilting DT Barnum: 22
TOTAL: 203

Electoral votes in "toss-up" states: 66

Take out the "lean" states on both sides Biden has a 232-204 lead.

"Toss Up" states: Arizona, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Nebraska District 2. Latest polling averages in "Toss Up" states: https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/

Arizona (11 electoral votes): 47% Biden / 43% Barnum / 10% Undecided
  • In 2016, Barnum beat Clinton 48.1% to 44.6% (about 91,000 votes)
Wisconsin (10): 47% Biden / 41% Barnum / 12% Undecided
  • In 2016, Barnum beat Clinton 47.2% to 46.5% (about 23,000 votes)
Florida (29): 49% Biden / 46% Barnum / 5% Undecided
  • In 2016, Barnum beat Clinton 48.6% to 47.3% (about 113,000 votes)
North Carolina (15): 46% Biden / 46% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • In 2016, Barnum beat Clinton 49.8% to 46.2% (about 173,000 votes)

Latest polling averages in "Lean" states:

"Leaning" Biden (14 electoral votes):

Minnesota (10): 49% Biden / 44% Barnum / 7% Undecided
  • In 2016, Clinton beat Barnum 46.4% to 44.9% (about 44,000 votes)
New Hampshire (4): 50% Biden / 42% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • In 2016, Clinton beat Barnum 46.8% to 46.5% (about 2,700 votes)

"Leaning" Barnum (56 electoral votes):

Ohio (18): 46% Barnum / 43% Biden / 11% Undecided
  • In 2016, Barnum beat Clinton 51.3% to 43.2% (about 450,000 votes)
Texas (38): 46% Barnum / 42% Biden / 12% Undecided
  • In 2016, Barnum beat Clinton 52.3% to 42.3% (about 800,00 votes)

Latest polling averages in "Tilting" states:

"Tilting" Biden (36 electoral votes):

Pennsylvania (20): 48% Biden / 39% Barnum / 13% Undecided
  • In 2016, Barnum beat Clinton 48.2% to 47.5% (about 54,000 votes)
Michigan (16): 49% Biden / 43% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • In 2016, Barnum beat Clinton 47.3% to 47% (about 10,500 votes)

"Tilting" Barnum (22 electoral votes):

Georgia (16): 48% Biden / 47% Barnum / 5% Undecided
  • In 2016, Barnum beat Clinton 50.4% to 45.3% (about 211,000 votes)
Iowa (6): 48% Barnum / 46% Biden / 6% Undecided
  • In 2016, Barnum beat Clinton 51.1% to 41.7% (about 147,000 votes)



 
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Thanks for the post. It does confirm that Trump's path to victory might, perhaps, be even narrower than it was 4 years ago. Trump doesn't appear to be leading too many of those, and the fact that Texas could at the very least be competitive is a bad sign.
 
sober_teacher said:
Thanks for the post. It does confirm that Trump's path to victory might, perhaps, be even narrower than it was 4 years ago. Trump doesn't appear to be leading too many of those, and the fact that Texas could at the very least be competitive is a bad sign.
Click to expand...

It's early but . . . as currently structured and if those polls are accurate . . . the road is very narrow. Lots would have to break his way. Five months is a long time though.
 
Math wrong: 268 + 203 + 66 = 537 (not 538).

But Biden’s numbers (209, 36, 14) add to 259, not 268.

?
 
They're tied in the latest Texas poll. Good. Let Trump have to waste a ton of resources to win a gimme state.
 
Tom Paris said:
It's mind boggling that this isn't a Reagan versus Mondale landslide. If ever a POTUS race shouldn't be close, it's this one.
Click to expand...

It is also mind bottling that there are so many people who are undecided. I mean, if someone doesn't have enough evidence at this point to help make up their mind, they likely won't be able to select which pants to wear to leave the house on the day they are supposed to go vote.


563007_v1.jpg
 
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Huey Grey said:
He is a sitting president. Even weak presidents are tough to take down.
Click to expand...

Yep. He’s a Moran. But many around him are not.

He’s got some talented people on voter turnout and micro targeting. He’s sitting on a huge war chest, he’s got the soft money behind that, and he’s got the bully pulpit. And a voter suppression operation in some key states.

There’s a reason why incumbents win. How many elected incumbents have lost since WWII - Two?
 
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St. Louis Hawk said:
Yep. He’s a Moran. But many around him are not.

He’s got some talented people on voter turnout and micro targeting. He’s sitting on a huge war chest, he’s got the soft money behind that, and he’s got the bully pulpit. And a voter suppression operation in some key states.

There’s a reason why incumbents win. How many elected incumbents have lost since WWII - Two?
Click to expand...

Three. I can take it a step further. Only 5 lost since 1900, and only 10 ever.
 
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markfromj said:
Meaning what? I get the “no one gets 270” deal but not any “it does not add to 538” deal.
Click to expand...

Yea, so every state stays the same except Biden wins the 1 EV from Maine and flips PA and Michigan. 269-269. House is one state, one vote, Rs have the most House members in 26 states
 
Tom Paris said:
It's mind boggling that this isn't a Reagan versus Mondale landslide. If ever a POTUS race shouldn't be close, it's this one.
Click to expand...
3.5 years of the destruction of norms, and the personalization of the federal government to respond to one man.
 
"What comes next".
Good discussion on Morning Joe today about the shocking slide towards autocratic rule in America. Anne Applebaum hit upon what should cause every American who loves the Constitution to be fearful. What comes next, is the attempt to steal an election.
The OP laid out statistics that show how divided politically the electorate is. Will members of the GOP conspire with Trump to steal an election? Will Republican politicians be willing to lose gracefully?
Trump has already started to lay the groundwork for disputing the election. He is attempting to delegitimize the election, he is attempting to constrict who is allowed to vote. And, he has laid the groundwork to normalize troops and federal agents swarming our streets. Call that hyperbole, or call that TDS, but Trump is paving the way to steal an election, and to quell dissent.
 
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AuroraHawk said:
Latest data (6/3/2020) from 270towin.com: https://www.270towin.com

I'm far more interested in the state polling than national polling. I wanted to post this as it will be interesting to see how the percentages "shift" after this past week's activities. Looks like 12 states, including Iowa, will be the focus of the respective campaigns. This is my "go to" site for polling/trends.

Data as of today strongly suggests that this is going to be a really tight race. Biden may be leading in the state polling but there are a large number of undecideds and historical data doesn't necessarily trend well for him. Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania are the states that I'm watching most closely.

Electoral votes in states safe or likely for Biden: 209
Electoral votes in states leaning Biden: 14
Electoral votes in states tilting Biden: 36
TOTAL: 268

Electoral votes in states safe or likely for DT Barnum: 125
Electoral votes in states leaning DT Barnum: 56
Electoral votes in states tilting DT Barnum: 22
TOTAL: 203

Electoral votes in "toss-up" states: 66

Take out the "lean" states on both sides Biden has a 232-204 lead.

"Toss Up" states: Arizona, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Nebraska District 2. Latest polling averages in "Toss Up" states: https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/

Arizona (11 electoral votes): 47% Biden / 43% Barnum / 10% Undecided
  • In 2016, Barnum beat Clinton 48.1% to 44.6% (about 91,000 votes)
Wisconsin (10): 47% Biden / 41% Barnum / 12% Undecided
  • In 2016, Barnum beat Clinton 47.2% to 46.5% (about 23,000 votes)
Florida (29): 49% Biden / 46% Barnum / 5% Undecided
  • In 2016, Barnum beat Clinton 48.6% to 47.3% (about 113,000 votes)
North Carolina (15): 46% Biden / 46% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • In 2016, Barnum beat Clinton 49.8% to 46.2% (about 173,000 votes)

Latest polling averages in "Lean" states:

"Leaning" Biden (14 electoral votes):

Minnesota (10): 49% Biden / 44% Barnum / 7% Undecided
  • In 2016, Clinton beat Barnum 46.4% to 44.9% (about 44,000 votes)
New Hampshire (4): 50% Biden / 42% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • In 2016, Clinton beat Barnum 46.8% to 46.5% (about 2,700 votes)

"Leaning" Barnum (56 electoral votes):

Ohio (18): 46% Barnum / 43% Biden / 11% Undecided



    • In 2016, Barnum beat Clinton 51.3% to 43.2% (about 450,000 votes)
Texas (38): 46% Barnum / 42% Biden / 12% Undecided



    • In 2016, Barnum beat Clinton 52.3% to 42.3% (about 800,00 votes)
Latest polling averages in "Tilting" states:

"Tilting" Biden (36 electoral votes):

Pennsylvania (20): 48% Biden / 39% Barnum / 13% Undecided
  • In 2016, Barnum beat Clinton 48.2% to 47.5% (about 54,000 votes)
Michigan (16): 49% Biden / 43% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • In 2016, Barnum beat Clinton 47.3% to 47% (about 10,500 votes)

"Tilting" Barnum (22 electoral votes):

Georgia (16): 48% Biden / 47% Barnum / 5% Undecided



    • In 2016, Barnum beat Clinton 50.4% to 45.3% (about 211,000 votes)
Iowa (6): 48% Barnum / 46% Biden / 6% Undecided



    • In 2016, Barnum beat Clinton 51.1% to 41.7% (about 147,000 votes)
Click to expand...

Even the FauxNews poll has Drumpf losing Ohio

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehil...rails-biden-in-ohio-arizona-and-wisconsin?amp
 
BeepBeepInMyJeep said:
Yea, so every state stays the same except Biden wins the 1 EV from Maine and flips PA and Michigan. 269-269. House is one state, one vote, Rs have the most House members in 26 states
Click to expand...

I know. But the math in the OP added to 537, not 538.
 
It has been two weeks since the original post and a number of recent polls (post-protests) have started to "roll in."

Projected total number of electoral votes in "Safe," "Likely," and "Lean" states remains identical to 6/3. Total electoral votes available in "toss-up" states remains at 66. https://www.270towin.com

"Toss Up" states: Arizona, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina (same as 6/3)

On 6/3, average of polls in Arizona (11 electoral votes) showed: 47% Biden / 43% Barnum / 10% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Arizona showed: 46% Biden / 43% Barnum / 11% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Wisconsin (10) showed: 47% Biden / 41% Barnum / 12% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Wisconsin showed 48% Biden / 41% Barnum / 11% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Florida (29) showed: 49% Biden / 46% Barnum / 5% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Florida showed 48% Biden / 43% Barnum / 9% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in North Carolina (15) showed: 46% Biden / 46% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in North Carolina showed 46% Biden / 45% Barnum / 9% Undecided
"Leaning" Biden (14 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polling in Minnesota (10) showed: 49% Biden / 44% Barnum / 7% Undecided
  • On 6/17, no change
On 6/3, average of polls in New Hampshire (4) showed: 50% Biden / 42% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 6/17, no change
"Leaning" Barnum (56 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polls in Ohio (18) showed: 46% Barnum / 43% Biden / 11% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Ohio showed 45% Biden / 43% Barnum / 12% Undecided
Texas (38): 46% Barnum / 42% Biden / 12% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Texas showed 46% Biden / 46% Barnum / 8% Undecided
"Tilting" Biden (36 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polls in Pennsylvania (20) showed: 48% Biden / 39% Barnum / 13% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Pennsylvania showed 49% Biden / 43% Barnum / 8% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Michigan (16) showed: 49% Biden / 43% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Michigan showed 50% Biden / 42% Barnum / 8% Undecided
"Tilting" Barnum (22 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polls in Georgia (16) showed: 48% Biden / 47% Barnum / 5% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Georgia showed 45% Biden / 46% Barnum / 9% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Iowa (6) showed: 48% Barnum / 46% Biden / 6% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Iowa showed 45% Biden / 46% Barnum / 9% Undecided
https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/

Draw your own conclusions . . . individual polls in some toss-up, likely and lean states suggest that Biden's lead is increasing but if you average poll results in some type of effort to potentially minimize impact of "outlier" results, I think that the more accurate picture is that there remains a significant number of people in the "middle" who aren't yet locked in. I wouldn't conclude that the numbers paint a rosy picture for DT Barnum but I certainly don't look at these numbers and conclude that there is no viable route for him to be re-elected and . . . given what I listened to on Smerconish's XM program this week . . . if things "break" for him again, it may not be as close as people expect.
 
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Trump is at low ebb right now. I do expect him to rebound at some point. The questions are when, by how much, and what's the duration of said bounce?

I think we're mostly agreed that Biden is unlikely to win by 10+ points, though bettering Clinton's margin of victory in the popular vote from 2016 seems like a decent bet right now. What's of note to me are the sheer number of states that Biden is competitive/leading in vs ones that Trump is leading in. If the state polls are at all accurate (always a tricky proposition), that argues strongly that Trump's path to victory is extremely narrow at the moment.
 
lucas80 said:
"What comes next".
Good discussion on Morning Joe today about the shocking slide towards autocratic rule in America. Anne Applebaum hit upon what should cause every American who loves the Constitution to be fearful. What comes next, is the attempt to steal an election.
The OP laid out statistics that show how divided politically the electorate is. Will members of the GOP conspire with Trump to steal an election? Will Republican politicians be willing to lose gracefully?
Trump has already started to lay the groundwork for disputing the election. He is attempting to delegitimize the election, he is attempting to constrict who is allowed to vote. And, he has laid the groundwork to normalize troops and federal agents swarming our streets. Call that hyperbole, or call that TDS, but Trump is paving the way to steal an election, and to quell dissent.
Click to expand...
He stole the last one, of course he will try that again. There are no consequences after all.
 
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Again, my vote for President means nothing. A handful of the same states decide the Presidency every 4 years.

This will not change unless and until a big con state consistently goes blue ... like a Texas or Georgia or NC ...
 
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sober_teacher said:
Trump is at low ebb right now. I do expect him to rebound at some point. The questions are when, by how much, and what's the duration of said bounce?

I think we're mostly agreed that Biden is unlikely to win by 10+ points, though bettering Clinton's margin of victory in the popular vote from 2016 seems like a decent bet right now. What's of note to me are the sheer number of states that Biden is competitive/leading in vs ones that Trump is leading in. If the state polls are at all accurate (always a tricky proposition), that argues strongly that Trump's path to victory is extremely narrow at the moment.
Click to expand...
I think whether this is an ebb depends much on how Covid goes the next 5 months. If we are still seeing spikes all around the country in November, there is no college football, economy is still shaky, he is beyond toast. If we are semi-close to “normal” he will have a puncher’s chance.
 
Last edited:
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fezzador said:
Three. I can take it a step further. Only 5 lost since 1900, and only 10 ever.
Click to expand...

How about this one:

Since 1988 the GOP candidate has received the most votes once.

Once.

But they’ve won the election three times. So it’s damn tough for the Dems to win.
 
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I suspect Trump will close the gap a fair amount between now and November and lost the popular vote by something like 5-6%. I think this will enable him to eke out wins in a few of the tossup states, but I think he's toast in Michigan. Likely also in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Even North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona are probably leaning Biden at this point.

In kind of anti-climactic for me here in California as I think Biden is going to win by 30-35 points.
 
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naturalmwa said:
So 12 states get attention under the current system and people imagine it would be hard to get the other 38 to vote to eliminate the electoral college?
Click to expand...
Twelve in play at this point, but more are Republican than Democratic. No way a Republican state votes against the EC.
 
The original post showed how razor thin the margin was in 2016. Everything fell exactly right for Trump. The chances of the stars aligning again are slim now that he has a both and legislative and personal record to defend.
 
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swagsurfer02 said:
I hope Biden wins so the crying will stop. Then again if Trump wins again, those tears will be delicious.


Anyway Swag wins
Click to expand...
Trump will not go away quietly. Meaning he'll be on Foxnews , Twitter, OAN , etc. 24/7 he demands the spotlight.
 
Hoosierhawkeye said:
The defense of the electoral college is entirely based upon which party it advantages.
Click to expand...
For me, no. It’s based on not being OK with the fate of the country being decided by several high-population urban areas. If it were decided by popular vote, you’d see candidates spend even more time in more limited places.

Five counties in New York City, covering 320-ish square miles, provided Hillary’s popular vote winning margin in 2016. Should anybody be OK with NYC alone picking our president?
 
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