Race to 270 . . . 6/3/2020 . . .

Hoosierhawkeye

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Sep 16, 2008
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For me, no. It’s based on not being OK with the fate of the country being decided by several high-population urban areas. If it were decided by popular vote, you’d see candidates spend even more time in more limited places.

Five counties in New York City, covering 320-ish square miles, provided Hillary’s popular vote winning margin in 2016. Should anybody be OK with NYC alone picking our president?
NYC alone??

You act like NYC alone could outvote the whole nation. Just because they provided her winning margin doesn't mean all that much.

You take any winning candidate, go look up the areas of their strongest support, cut them out and pretend like those guys are the ones deciding all the elections.

Why should .18% of the voters in this country hold .56% of the authority?
 

sober_teacher

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Mar 26, 2007
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The original post showed how razor thin the margin was in 2016. Everything fell exactly right for Trump. The chances of the stars aligning again are slim now that he has a both and legislative and personal record to defend.
From the GOP primary season, thru having to face Hillary, the email scandal, etc. The sheer number of things that had to break for Trump in 2016 really is remarkable. If you simulated the 2016 race from start to finish 1000x, how many would trump win?
 
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artradley

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From the GOP primary season, thru having to face Hillary, the email scandal, etc. The sheer number of things that had to break for Trump in 2016 really is remarkable. If you simulated the 2016 race from start to finish 1000x, how many would trump win?
538 Had his odds at around 28%; which is why I was nervous. So my guess is he would have won 280 times.
 
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torbee

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From the GOP primary season, thru having to face Hillary, the email scandal, etc. The sheer number of things that had to break for Trump in 2016 really is remarkable. If you simulated the 2016 race from start to finish 1000x, how many would trump win?
About 100. Which is what the polls indicated. hRC was a 90 percent favorite. That doesn’t guarantee victory- it means the opponent needs every break to go their way. Which is exactly how it played out.
 

mjtommy

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Nov 22, 2003
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For me, no. It’s based on not being OK with the fate of the country being decided by several high-population urban areas. If it were decided by popular vote, you’d see candidates spend even more time in more limited places.

Five counties in New York City, covering 320-ish square miles, provided Hillary’s popular vote winning margin in 2016. Should anybody be OK with NYC alone picking our president?
The winner take all in the electoral college is what I have a problem with. Republicans in California basically have no vote for president and the same can be said for Democrats in a state like Georgia.
 

funksouljon

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Jan 26, 2004
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Ultimately all that matters is did he convince more people to vote for him than he has driven off? I don't think he has voters who didn't vote for him in 2016 that now think "Oh, he needs me to show up!" but he has certainly made people who sat out in 2016 say "Crap, I need to vote this time around." To me, that alone flips a couple states that he won <by small margin>.

Never say never, but.......

This ignores people who showed up just to vote against Hillary.
 
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sober_teacher

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Ultimately all that matters is did he convince more people to vote for him than he has driven off? I don't think he has voters who didn't vote for him in 2016 that now think "Oh, he needs me to show up!" but he has certainly made people who sat out in 2016 say "Crap, I need to vote this time around." To me, that alone flips a couple states that he won.

Never say never, but.......

This ignores people who showed up just to vote against Hillary.
Theoretically it should mean a lot that Hillary isn't on the ballot. We saw in the primary season how much of Bernie's support was simply anti-Hillary. Once the field narrowed, Bernie didn't have enough support to win.
 

tarheelbybirth

HR King
Apr 17, 2003
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For me, no. It’s based on not being OK with the fate of the country being decided by several high-population urban areas. If it were decided by popular vote, you’d see candidates spend even more time in more limited places.

Five counties in New York City, covering 320-ish square miles, provided Hillary’s popular vote winning margin in 2016. Should anybody be OK with NYC alone picking our president?
Bull. Shit. If those were the only votes she got she would have been crushed. This has to be the dumbest f'n analysis I've ever seen. Please tell us you're not this stupid.
 

funksouljon

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Jan 26, 2004
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The winner take all in the electoral college is what I have a problem with. Republicans in California basically have no vote for president and the same can be said for Democrats in a state like Georgia.
Law of large numbers says that likely balances out.
 

theiacowtipper

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Feb 17, 2004
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For me, no. It’s based on not being OK with the fate of the country being decided by several high-population urban areas. If it were decided by popular vote, you’d see candidates spend even more time in more limited places.

Five counties in New York City, covering 320-ish square miles, provided Hillary’s popular vote winning margin in 2016. Should anybody be OK with NYC alone picking our president?
So? Answer this. Why does a vote in California, New York, Texas, and Florida count for less than one in Wyoming, Rhode Island, and Montana?
 

artradley

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Apr 26, 2013
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For me, no. It’s based on not being OK with the fate of the country being decided by several high-population urban areas. If it were decided by popular vote, you’d see candidates spend even more time in more limited places.

Five counties in New York City, covering 320-ish square miles, provided Hillary’s popular vote winning margin in 2016. Should anybody be OK with NYC alone picking our president?
Instead, it’s decided by a much smaller number of people in a random handful of states. One is no better than the other in that regard. However, popular vote has the advantage of giving every voter an equal say. One man, one vote.
 

FormerlyCyberCy

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Nov 17, 2005
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There are a lot of republicans in those 38 states. I think you’re too confident in your proclamation.
Republicans know they benefit from the EC. They control most of the small rural states. Why would those states give up the power the EC gives them? New York, California, then possibly WA, OR, MA would approve immediately. What other states?
 
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Greenway4Prez

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Jan 10, 2005
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Bull. Shit. If those were the only votes she got she would have been crushed. This has to be the dumbest f'n analysis I've ever seen. Please tell us you're not this stupid.
It was just an example of how a tiny area of the country can decide an election if we were to get rid of the electoral college.

The system isn’t perfect. I’m not sure any system WOULD be. But I will say this; if we did switch to a popular vote deciding the presidential election, the GOP would have to switch strategy in a hurry.
 

naturalmwa

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Feb 4, 2004
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Republicans know they benefit from the EC. They control most of the small rural states. Why would those states give up the power the EC gives them? New York, California, then possibly WA, OR, MA would approve immediately. What other states?
Because it isn’t giving those particular states power. I’m not suggesting the 12 states that get power from the EC vote against it. I’m suggesting the 38 states that get screwed vote against it. That’s all it takes.
 

DFSNOLE

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It was just an example of how a tiny area of the country can decide an election if we were to get rid of the electoral college.

The system isn’t perfect. I’m not sure any system WOULD be. But I will say this; if we did switch to a popular vote deciding the presidential election, the GOP would have to switch strategy in a hurry.
If you think about it, fewer than the number of votes that Clinton won by determined the EC winner when you consider how close the margins were in several of the swing states. As has been stated previously in this thread, it's the winner takes all that is not representative of the vote.
 
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Urohawk

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It is also mind bottling that there are so many people who are undecided. I mean, if someone doesn't have enough evidence at this point to help make up their mind, they likely won't be able to select which pants to wear to leave the house on the day they are supposed to go vote.
I think those people are hoping for one of the two craptastic candidates to have a widowmaker heart attack and then we get new candidates we are actually interested in voting for.
 

AuroraHawk

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Dec 18, 2004
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It has been a month since my last post re: www.270towin data and there have been recent polls released.

Projected total number of electoral votes in "Safe," "Likely," and "Lean" states remains identical to 6/3 and 6/17. Total electoral votes available in "toss-up" states remains at 66. https://www.270towin.com

"Toss Up" states: Arizona, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina (same as 6/3)

On 6/3, average of polls in Arizona (11 electoral votes) showed: 47% Biden / 43% Barnum / 10% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Arizona showed: 46% Biden / 43% Barnum / 11% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Arizona showed: 49% Biden / 45% Barnum / 6% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Wisconsin (10) showed: 47% Biden / 41% Barnum / 12% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Wisconsin showed 48% Biden / 41% Barnum / 11% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Wisconsin showed 47% Biden / 44% Barnum / 9% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Florida (29) showed: 49% Biden / 46% Barnum / 5% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Florida showed 48% Biden / 43% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Florida showed 51% Biden / 43% Barnum / 6% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in North Carolina (15) showed: 46% Biden / 46% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in North Carolina showed 46% Biden / 45% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in North Carolina showed 48% Biden / 47% Barnum / 5% Undecided
"Leaning" Biden (14 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polling in Minnesota (10) showed: 49% Biden / 44% Barnum / 7% Undecided
  • On 6/17, no change
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Minnesota showed 51% Biden / 38% Barnum / 11% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in New Hampshire (4) showed: 50% Biden / 42% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 6/17, no change
  • On 7/27, average of polls in New Hampshire showed 49% Biden / 42% Barnum / 9% Undecided
"Leaning" Barnum (56 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polls in Ohio (18) showed: 46% Barnum / 43% Biden / 11% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Ohio showed 45% Biden / 43% Barnum / 12% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Ohio showed 46% Barnum / 45% Biden / 9% Undecided
Texas (38): 46% Barnum / 42% Biden / 12% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Texas showed 46% Biden / 46% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 7/27, no change
"Tilting" Biden (36 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polls in Pennsylvania (20) showed: 48% Biden / 39% Barnum / 13% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Pennsylvania showed 49% Biden / 43% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Pennsylvania showed 50% Biden / 43% Barnum / 7% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Michigan (16) showed: 49% Biden / 43% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Michigan showed 50% Biden / 42% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Michigan showed 49% Biden / 43% Barnum / 8% Undecided
"Tilting" Barnum (22 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polls in Georgia (16) showed: 48% Biden / 47% Barnum / 5% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Georgia showed 45% Biden / 46% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Georgia showed 46% Biden / 48% Barnum / 6% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Iowa (6) showed: 48% Barnum / 46% Biden / 6% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Iowa showed 45% Biden / 46% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Iowa showed 48% Biden / 46% Barnum / 6% Undecided
https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/

In my amateur opinion, this state's polling results that have to give DT Barnum's campaign the biggest headache: https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/florida/ 6 of 8 polls have Biden sitting at 50% or more. Of the 5 polls of "Likely Voters," 4 of them have him at 50% or higher. If Barnum cannot collect Florida's 29 electoral votes, the path to re-election is incredibly difficult . . . if not impossible.

I'm not surprised that Wisconsin and North Carolina appear to be "tightening up."

Even though Arizona's polls have Biden in the lead, I am skeptical that Arizona will turn blue. But, damn, recent polling in Arizona has to be concerning to Barnum's camp: https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/arizona/
 

Hoosierhawkeye

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Sep 16, 2008
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It has been a month since my last post re: www.270towin data and there have been recent polls released.

Projected total number of electoral votes in "Safe," "Likely," and "Lean" states remains identical to 6/3 and 6/17. Total electoral votes available in "toss-up" states remains at 66. https://www.270towin.com

"Toss Up" states: Arizona, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina (same as 6/3)

On 6/3, average of polls in Arizona (11 electoral votes) showed: 47% Biden / 43% Barnum / 10% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Arizona showed: 46% Biden / 43% Barnum / 11% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Arizona showed: 49% Biden / 45% Barnum / 6% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Wisconsin (10) showed: 47% Biden / 41% Barnum / 12% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Wisconsin showed 48% Biden / 41% Barnum / 11% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Wisconsin showed 47% Biden / 44% Barnum / 9% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Florida (29) showed: 49% Biden / 46% Barnum / 5% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Florida showed 48% Biden / 43% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Florida showed 51% Biden / 43% Barnum / 6% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in North Carolina (15) showed: 46% Biden / 46% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in North Carolina showed 46% Biden / 45% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in North Carolina showed 48% Biden / 47% Barnum / 5% Undecided
"Leaning" Biden (14 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polling in Minnesota (10) showed: 49% Biden / 44% Barnum / 7% Undecided
  • On 6/17, no change
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Minnesota showed 51% Biden / 38% Barnum / 11% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in New Hampshire (4) showed: 50% Biden / 42% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 6/17, no change
  • On 7/27, average of polls in New Hampshire showed 49% Biden / 42% Barnum / 9% Undecided
"Leaning" Barnum (56 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polls in Ohio (18) showed: 46% Barnum / 43% Biden / 11% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Ohio showed 45% Biden / 43% Barnum / 12% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Ohio showed 46% Barnum / 45% Biden / 9% Undecided
Texas (38): 46% Barnum / 42% Biden / 12% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Texas showed 46% Biden / 46% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 7/27, no change
"Tilting" Biden (36 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polls in Pennsylvania (20) showed: 48% Biden / 39% Barnum / 13% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Pennsylvania showed 49% Biden / 43% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Pennsylvania showed 50% Biden / 43% Barnum / 7% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Michigan (16) showed: 49% Biden / 43% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Michigan showed 50% Biden / 42% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Michigan showed 49% Biden / 43% Barnum / 8% Undecided
"Tilting" Barnum (22 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polls in Georgia (16) showed: 48% Biden / 47% Barnum / 5% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Georgia showed 45% Biden / 46% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Georgia showed 46% Biden / 48% Barnum / 6% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Iowa (6) showed: 48% Barnum / 46% Biden / 6% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Iowa showed 45% Biden / 46% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Iowa showed 48% Biden / 46% Barnum / 6% Undecided
https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/

In my amateur opinion, this state's polling results that have to give DT Barnum's campaign the biggest headache: https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/florida/ 6 of 8 polls have Biden sitting at 50% or more. Of the 5 polls of "Likely Voters," 4 of them have him at 50% or higher. If Barnum cannot collect Florida's 29 electoral votes, the path to re-election is incredibly difficult . . . if not impossible.

I'm not surprised that Wisconsin and North Carolina appear to be "tightening up."

Even though Arizona's polls have Biden in the lead, I am skeptical that Arizona will turn blue. But, damn, recent polling in Arizona has to be concerning to Barnum's camp: https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/arizona/
Even more concerning for Barnum is the fact that Texas is neck and neck.
 

AuroraHawk

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Even more concerning for Barnum is the fact that Texas is neck and neck.
If there is a set of polling numbers that I'm not putting a ton of stock in right now, it's Texas. Give me polling results in another 30-45 days before I really feel like Texas is "neck and neck." And, even then, I'm having a hard time seeing that state going anything less than +4 / +5 for Barnum.
 

StormHawk42

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Nov 3, 2009
14,122
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If there is a set of polling numbers that I'm not putting a ton of stock in right now, it's Texas. Give me polling results in another 30-45 days before I really feel like Texas is "neck and neck." And, even then, I'm having a hard time seeing that state going anything less than +4 / +5 for Barnum.
Yeah Texas is a red state until it proves it isn’t.
 

tumorboy

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Sep 24, 2002
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If there is a set of polling numbers that I'm not putting a ton of stock in right now, it's Texas. Give me polling results in another 30-45 days before I really feel like Texas is "neck and neck." And, even then, I'm having a hard time seeing that state going anything less than +4 / +5 for Barnum.
The good thing for Biden about Texas right now it makes Trump spend resources on it.
 
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Hoosierhawkeye

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If there is a set of polling numbers that I'm not putting a ton of stock in right now, it's Texas. Give me polling results in another 30-45 days before I really feel like Texas is "neck and neck." And, even then, I'm having a hard time seeing that state going anything less than +4 / +5 for Barnum.
It's not as red as it has been.

2018 - Cruz by 2
2016 - DT Barnum by 9
2014 - Cornyn by 27
2012 - Romney by 15
2012 - Cruz by 16

I mean all in all it's probably going to swing for Trump but the close polling puts Trump on the defensive in a state that he should win but has also seen a lot of COVID.
 

DFSNOLE

HR Heisman
Sep 25, 2002
8,900
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It has been a month since my last post re: www.270towin data and there have been recent polls released.

Projected total number of electoral votes in "Safe," "Likely," and "Lean" states remains identical to 6/3 and 6/17. Total electoral votes available in "toss-up" states remains at 66. https://www.270towin.com

"Toss Up" states: Arizona, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina (same as 6/3)

On 6/3, average of polls in Arizona (11 electoral votes) showed: 47% Biden / 43% Barnum / 10% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Arizona showed: 46% Biden / 43% Barnum / 11% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Arizona showed: 49% Biden / 45% Barnum / 6% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Wisconsin (10) showed: 47% Biden / 41% Barnum / 12% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Wisconsin showed 48% Biden / 41% Barnum / 11% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Wisconsin showed 47% Biden / 44% Barnum / 9% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Florida (29) showed: 49% Biden / 46% Barnum / 5% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Florida showed 48% Biden / 43% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Florida showed 51% Biden / 43% Barnum / 6% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in North Carolina (15) showed: 46% Biden / 46% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in North Carolina showed 46% Biden / 45% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in North Carolina showed 48% Biden / 47% Barnum / 5% Undecided
"Leaning" Biden (14 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polling in Minnesota (10) showed: 49% Biden / 44% Barnum / 7% Undecided
  • On 6/17, no change
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Minnesota showed 51% Biden / 38% Barnum / 11% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in New Hampshire (4) showed: 50% Biden / 42% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 6/17, no change
  • On 7/27, average of polls in New Hampshire showed 49% Biden / 42% Barnum / 9% Undecided
"Leaning" Barnum (56 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polls in Ohio (18) showed: 46% Barnum / 43% Biden / 11% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Ohio showed 45% Biden / 43% Barnum / 12% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Ohio showed 46% Barnum / 45% Biden / 9% Undecided
Texas (38): 46% Barnum / 42% Biden / 12% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Texas showed 46% Biden / 46% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 7/27, no change
"Tilting" Biden (36 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polls in Pennsylvania (20) showed: 48% Biden / 39% Barnum / 13% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Pennsylvania showed 49% Biden / 43% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Pennsylvania showed 50% Biden / 43% Barnum / 7% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Michigan (16) showed: 49% Biden / 43% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Michigan showed 50% Biden / 42% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Michigan showed 49% Biden / 43% Barnum / 8% Undecided
"Tilting" Barnum (22 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polls in Georgia (16) showed: 48% Biden / 47% Barnum / 5% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Georgia showed 45% Biden / 46% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Georgia showed 46% Biden / 48% Barnum / 6% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Iowa (6) showed: 48% Barnum / 46% Biden / 6% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Iowa showed 45% Biden / 46% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Iowa showed 48% Biden / 46% Barnum / 6% Undecided
https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/

In my amateur opinion, this state's polling results that have to give DT Barnum's campaign the biggest headache: https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/florida/ 6 of 8 polls have Biden sitting at 50% or more. Of the 5 polls of "Likely Voters," 4 of them have him at 50% or higher. If Barnum cannot collect Florida's 29 electoral votes, the path to re-election is incredibly difficult . . . if not impossible.

I'm not surprised that Wisconsin and North Carolina appear to be "tightening up."

Even though Arizona's polls have Biden in the lead, I am skeptical that Arizona will turn blue. But, damn, recent polling in Arizona has to be concerning to Barnum's camp: https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/arizona/
Haven't you learned from @IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life that it is better to cherry-pick one poll that confirms your bias than it is to look at an average of multiple polls for true results?
 
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AuroraHawk

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Dec 18, 2004
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It has been a couple of months since my last post re: www.270towin data and there have been some recent polls released.

According to 270towin.com, projected total number of electoral votes in "Safe," "Likely," and "Lean" states remains identical to 6/3, 6/17 and 7/27. Total electoral votes available in "toss-up" states remains at 66. https://www.270towin.com

"Toss Up" states: Arizona, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina (same as 6/3)

On 6/3, average of polls in Arizona (11 electoral votes) showed: 47% Biden / 43% Barnum / 10% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Arizona showed: 46% Biden / 43% Barnum / 11% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Arizona showed: 49% Biden / 45% Barnum / 6% Undecided
  • On 9/22, average of polls in Arizona showed: 48% Biden / 43% Barnum / 9% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Wisconsin (10) showed: 47% Biden / 41% Barnum / 12% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Wisconsin showed 48% Biden / 41% Barnum / 11% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Wisconsin showed 47% Biden / 44% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 9/22, average of polls in Wisconsin showed: 50% Biden / 43% Barnum / 7% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Florida (29) showed: 49% Biden / 46% Barnum / 5% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Florida showed 48% Biden / 43% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Florida showed 51% Biden / 43% Barnum / 6% Undecided
  • On 9/22, average of polls in Florida showed: 48% Biden / 47% Barnum / 5% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in North Carolina (15) showed: 46% Biden / 46% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in North Carolina showed 46% Biden / 45% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in North Carolina showed 48% Biden / 47% Barnum / 5% Undecided
  • On 9/22, average of polls in North Carolina showed: 47% Biden / 46% Barnum / 7% Undecided
"Leaning" Biden (14 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polling in Minnesota (10) showed: 49% Biden / 44% Barnum / 7% Undecided
  • On 6/17, no change
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Minnesota showed 51% Biden / 38% Barnum / 11% Undecided
  • On 9/22, average of polls in Minnesota showed: 51% Biden / 42% Barnum / 7% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in New Hampshire (4) showed: 50% Biden / 42% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 6/17, no change
  • On 7/27, average of polls in New Hampshire showed 49% Biden / 42% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 9/22, average of polls in New Hampshire showed: 45% Biden / 42% Barnum / 13% Undecided
"Leaning" Barnum (56 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polls in Ohio (18) showed: 46% Barnum / 43% Biden / 11% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Ohio showed 45% Biden / 43% Barnum / 12% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Ohio showed 46% Barnum / 45% Biden / 9% Undecided
  • On 9/22, average of polls in Ohio showed: 48% Barnum / 47% Biden / 5% Undecided
On 6/2 average of polls in Texas (38) showed: 46% Barnum / 42% Biden / 12% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Texas showed 46% Biden / 46% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 7/27, no change
  • On 9/22, average of polls in Texas showed: 48% Barnum / 47% Biden / 5% Undecided
"Tilting" Biden (36 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polls in Pennsylvania (20) showed: 48% Biden / 39% Barnum / 13% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Pennsylvania showed 49% Biden / 43% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Pennsylvania showed 50% Biden / 43% Barnum / 7% Undecided
  • On 9/22, average of polls in Pennsylvania showed: 49% Biden / 45% Barnum / 6% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Michigan (16) showed: 49% Biden / 43% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Michigan showed 50% Biden / 42% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Michigan showed 49% Biden / 43% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 9/22, average of polls in Michigan showed: 49% Biden / 41% Barnum / 10% Undecided
"Tilting" Barnum (22 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polls in Georgia (16) showed: 48% Biden / 47% Barnum / 5% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Georgia showed 45% Biden / 46% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Georgia showed 46% Biden / 48% Barnum / 6% Undecided
  • On 9/22, average of polls in Georgia showed: 47% Barnum / 46% Biden / 7% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Iowa (6) showed: 48% Barnum / 46% Biden / 6% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Iowa showed 45% Biden / 46% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Iowa showed 48% Biden / 46% Barnum / 6% Undecided
  • On 9/22, average of polls in Iowa showed: 47% Barnum / 46% Biden / 7% Undecided
https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/

In the four key states of Arizona, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Florida, here are the "trends" from 6/3 to 9/22:

Arizona:
Biden (+1; 47 to 48%)
Barnum (Even at 43%)
NET: Biden +1 since 6/3

North Carolina:
Biden (+1; 46 to 47%)
Barnum (Even at 46%)
NET: Biden +1 since 6/3

Wisconsin:
Biden (+3; 47 to 50%)
Barnum (+2; 41 to 43%)
NET: Biden +1 since 6/3

Florida:
Biden (-1; 49 to 48%)
Barnum (+1 46 to 47%)
NET: Barnum +2 since 6/3

Most models show that Barnum needs to run the table with these four states. Barnum seems to have made some recent progress in Florida. For all practical purposes, recent polling has that state as being damn near a statistical tie. Arizona is interesting. Cindy McCain's endorsement may carry some weight in that state for those Republicans who may be struggling with the concept of not voting Republican. Wisconsin should expect lots of visits from both candidates.
 
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St. Louis Hawk

HR Legend
Gold Member
Feb 5, 2003
21,346
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For me, no. It’s based on not being OK with the fate of the country being decided by several high-population urban areas. If it were decided by popular vote, you’d see candidates spend even more time in more limited places.

Five counties in New York City, covering 320-ish square miles, provided Hillary’s popular vote winning margin in 2016. Should anybody be OK with NYC alone picking our president?
That’s because you attribute the entire margin to NY when the margin was built by a collection of all counties.

The electoral college will change if/when a couple traditional red states, now purple, go blue for an election or two.
 
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StormHawk42

HR Legend
Nov 3, 2009
14,122
11,995
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At this stage, it looks like Biden will hang onto MN and add Wisconsin and Michigan.

He needs either PA or AZ and hold serve elsewhere and he wins.

I think Florida might be slipping away amazingly. The Dems overestimated their Latino support.
 

cigaretteman

HR King
Gold Member
May 29, 2001
58,840
35,596
113
At this stage, it looks like Biden will hang onto MN and add Wisconsin and Michigan.

He needs either PA or AZ and hold serve elsewhere and he wins.

I think Florida might be slipping away amazingly. The Dems overestimated their Latino support.
Florida Latinos are not like other Latinos. Most of them are Cuban exiles or their descendants and are pretty conservative.
 

AuroraHawk

HR All-American
Dec 18, 2004
4,401
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23 days since my last post re: www.270towin data and there have been lots of recent polls released.

According to 270towin.com, projected total number of electoral votes in "Safe," "Likely," and "Lean" states remains identical to 6/3, 6/17, 7/27 and 9/22. Incredibly stable. Total electoral votes available in "toss-up" states remains at 66. https://www.270towin.com

"Toss Up" states (66 electoral votes): Arizona, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina (same as 9/22)

On 6/3, average of polls in Arizona (11 electoral votes) showed: 47% Biden / 43% Barnum / 10% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Arizona showed: 46% Biden / 43% Barnum / 11% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Arizona showed: 49% Biden / 45% Barnum / 6% Undecided
  • On 9/22, average of polls in Arizona showed: 48% Biden / 43% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 10/15, average of polls in Arizona showed: 49% Biden / 46% Barnum / 4% Undecided (last 5 polls have Biden at either 49% or 50%; Barnum ranges from 43% to 47%)
On 6/3, average of polls in Wisconsin (10) showed: 47% Biden / 41% Barnum / 12% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Wisconsin showed 48% Biden / 41% Barnum / 11% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Wisconsin showed 47% Biden / 44% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 9/22, average of polls in Wisconsin showed: 50% Biden / 43% Barnum / 7% Undecided
  • On 10/15, average of polls in Wisconsin showed: 50% Biden / 43% Barnum / 7% Undecided (last 5 polls have Biden ranging from 47% to 51; Barnum ranging from 41% to 45%)
On 6/3, average of polls in Florida (29) showed: 49% Biden / 46% Barnum / 5% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Florida showed 48% Biden / 43% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Florida showed 51% Biden / 43% Barnum / 6% Undecided
  • On 9/22, average of polls in Florida showed: 48% Biden / 47% Barnum / 5% Undecided
  • On 10/15, average of polls in Florida showed: 49% Biden / 47% Barnum / 4% Undecided (last 5 polls have Biden ranging from 46% to 51%; Barnum ranging from 46% to 48%)
On 6/3, average of polls in North Carolina (15) showed: 46% Biden / 46% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in North Carolina showed 46% Biden / 45% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in North Carolina showed 48% Biden / 47% Barnum / 5% Undecided
  • On 9/22, average of polls in North Carolina showed: 47% Biden / 46% Barnum / 7% Undecided
  • On 10/15, average of polls in North Carolina showed: 49% Biden / 45% Barnum / 6% Undecided (last 5 polls have Biden ranging from 48% to 51%; Barnum ranging from 42% to 47%)
"Likely" Barnum (56 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polls in Ohio (18) showed: 46% Barnum / 43% Biden / 11% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Ohio showed 45% Biden / 43% Barnum / 12% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Ohio showed 46% Barnum / 45% Biden / 9% Undecided
  • On 9/22, average of polls in Ohio showed: 48% Barnum / 47% Biden / 5% Undecided
  • On 10/15, average of polls in Ohio showed: 47% Barnum / 46% Biden / 7% Undecided
On 6/2 average of polls in Texas (38) showed: 46% Barnum / 42% Biden / 12% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Texas showed 46% Biden / 46% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 7/27, no change
  • On 9/22, average of polls in Texas showed: 48% Barnum / 47% Biden / 5% Undecided
  • On 10/15, average of polls in Texas showed: 50% Barnum / 46% Biden / 4% Undecided
"Leaning" Biden (14 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polling in Minnesota (10) showed: 49% Biden / 44% Barnum / 7% Undecided
  • On 6/17, no change
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Minnesota showed 51% Biden / 38% Barnum / 11% Undecided
  • On 9/22, average of polls in Minnesota showed: 51% Biden / 42% Barnum / 7% Undecided
  • On 10/15, average of polls in Minnesota showed: 49% Biden / 42% Barnum / 9% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in New Hampshire (4) showed: 50% Biden / 42% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 6/17, no change
  • On 7/27, average of polls in New Hampshire showed 49% Biden / 42% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 9/22, average of polls in New Hampshire showed: 45% Biden / 42% Barnum / 13% Undecided
  • On 10/15, average of polls in New Hampshire showed: 53% Biden / 43% Barnum / 4% Undecided
"Leaning" Barnum (22 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polls in Georgia (16) showed: 48% Biden / 47% Barnum / 5% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Georgia showed 45% Biden / 46% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Georgia showed 46% Biden / 48% Barnum / 6% Undecided
  • On 9/22, average of polls in Georgia showed: 47% Barnum / 46% Biden / 7% Undecided
  • On 10/15, average of polls in Georgia showed: 48% Biden / 46% Barnum / 6% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Iowa (6) showed: 48% Barnum / 46% Biden / 6% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Iowa showed 45% Biden / 46% Barnum / 9% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Iowa showed 48% Biden / 46% Barnum / 6% Undecided
  • On 9/22, average of polls in Iowa showed: 47% Barnum / 46% Biden / 7% Undecided
  • On 10/15, average of polls in Iowa showed: 47% Barnum / 47% Biden / 6% Undecided
"Tilting" Biden (36 electoral votes):

On 6/3, average of polls in Pennsylvania (20) showed: 48% Biden / 39% Barnum / 13% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Pennsylvania showed 49% Biden / 43% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Pennsylvania showed 50% Biden / 43% Barnum / 7% Undecided
  • On 9/22, average of polls in Pennsylvania showed: 49% Biden / 45% Barnum / 6% Undecided
  • On 10/15, average of polls in Pennsylvania showed: 49% Biden / 44% Barnum / 7% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Michigan (16) showed: 49% Biden / 43% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 6/17, average of polls in Michigan showed 50% Biden / 42% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 7/27, average of polls in Michigan showed 49% Biden / 43% Barnum / 8% Undecided
  • On 9/22, average of polls in Michigan showed: 49% Biden / 41% Barnum / 10% Undecided
  • On 10/15, average of polls in Michigan showed: 49% Biden / 42% Barnum / 9% Undecided

https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/

In the four key states of Arizona, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Florida, here are the "trends" from 6/3 to 10/15:

Arizona:
Biden (+2; 47 to 49%)
Barnum (+3; 43 to 46%)

North Carolina:
Biden (+3; 46 to 49%)
Barnum (-1; 46% to 45%)

Wisconsin:
Biden (+3; 47 to 50%)
Barnum (+2; 41 to 43%)

Florida:
Biden (Even at 49%)
Barnum (+1 46 to 47%)

Most models show that Barnum needs to run the table with these four states. Biden now sits at 49% in 3 of those states and 50% in one of those states as the proverbial "water starts to settle."

The 270towin site also cites to 13 different "prediction" sites. In looking at them, I note that they all have categories for "Solid," "Likely," "Leaning," "Tilting" and "Toss Up."

I also found it interesting that all 13 "prediction" sources now have Biden currently at over 270 electoral votes if you count the states that are "Solid," "Likely," "Leaning" and "Tilting" for him. The counts range from 279 - 335 electoral votes in those categories. In contrast, DT Barnum ranges from 143 - 205 electoral votes in those categories. As far as toss-up states are concerned, the polls range from as few as 32 electoral votes to as many as 85 electoral votes. Those 13 polls identify "toss-up states" (depending upon the poll) as including: Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Arizona and Texas (one poll shows Texas as "toss up"; I don't buy it). All of the 13 polls have Wisconsin as now either "tilting" or "leaning" for Biden.
 

sober_teacher

HR Heisman
Mar 26, 2007
6,730
6,412
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I just can't get over how many states can potentially be considered battlegrounds or flappable at all. Been a long time since so many had that potential really, and in most of them the incumbent is losing. That's virtually unheard of.
 
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StormHawk42

HR Legend
Nov 3, 2009
14,122
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PA is more toss up than Wisconsin at this point.

Saw something today that nearly 18 million people have already voted, as opposed to just over 1 million at this time in 2016.
 
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