It has been a month since my last post re:
www.270towin data and there have been recent polls released.
Projected total number of electoral votes in "Safe," "Likely," and "Lean" states remains identical to 6/3 and 6/17. Total electoral votes available in "toss-up" states remains at 66.
https://www.270towin.com
"Toss Up" states: Arizona, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina (same as 6/3)
On 6/3, average of polls in Arizona (11 electoral votes) showed: 47% Biden / 43% Barnum / 10% Undecided
- On 6/17, average of polls in Arizona showed: 46% Biden / 43% Barnum / 11% Undecided
- On 7/27, average of polls in Arizona showed: 49% Biden / 45% Barnum / 6% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Wisconsin (10) showed: 47% Biden / 41% Barnum / 12% Undecided
- On 6/17, average of polls in Wisconsin showed 48% Biden / 41% Barnum / 11% Undecided
- On 7/27, average of polls in Wisconsin showed 47% Biden / 44% Barnum / 9% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Florida (29) showed: 49% Biden / 46% Barnum / 5% Undecided
- On 6/17, average of polls in Florida showed 48% Biden / 43% Barnum / 9% Undecided
- On 7/27, average of polls in Florida showed 51% Biden / 43% Barnum / 6% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in North Carolina (15) showed: 46% Biden / 46% Barnum / 8% Undecided
- On 6/17, average of polls in North Carolina showed 46% Biden / 45% Barnum / 9% Undecided
- On 7/27, average of polls in North Carolina showed 48% Biden / 47% Barnum / 5% Undecided
"Leaning" Biden (14 electoral votes):
On 6/3, average of polling in Minnesota (10) showed: 49% Biden / 44% Barnum / 7% Undecided
- On 6/17, no change
- On 7/27, average of polls in Minnesota showed 51% Biden / 38% Barnum / 11% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in New Hampshire (4) showed: 50% Biden / 42% Barnum / 8% Undecided
- On 6/17, no change
- On 7/27, average of polls in New Hampshire showed 49% Biden / 42% Barnum / 9% Undecided
"Leaning" Barnum (56 electoral votes):
On 6/3, average of polls in Ohio (18) showed: 46% Barnum / 43% Biden / 11% Undecided
- On 6/17, average of polls in Ohio showed 45% Biden / 43% Barnum / 12% Undecided
- On 7/27, average of polls in Ohio showed 46% Barnum / 45% Biden / 9% Undecided
Texas (38): 46% Barnum / 42% Biden / 12% Undecided
- On 6/17, average of polls in Texas showed 46% Biden / 46% Barnum / 8% Undecided
- On 7/27, no change
"Tilting" Biden (36 electoral votes):
On 6/3, average of polls in Pennsylvania (20) showed: 48% Biden / 39% Barnum / 13% Undecided
- On 6/17, average of polls in Pennsylvania showed 49% Biden / 43% Barnum / 8% Undecided
- On 7/27, average of polls in Pennsylvania showed 50% Biden / 43% Barnum / 7% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Michigan (16) showed: 49% Biden / 43% Barnum / 8% Undecided
- On 6/17, average of polls in Michigan showed 50% Biden / 42% Barnum / 8% Undecided
- On 7/27, average of polls in Michigan showed 49% Biden / 43% Barnum / 8% Undecided
"Tilting" Barnum (22 electoral votes):
On 6/3, average of polls in Georgia (16) showed: 48% Biden / 47% Barnum / 5% Undecided
- On 6/17, average of polls in Georgia showed 45% Biden / 46% Barnum / 9% Undecided
- On 7/27, average of polls in Georgia showed 46% Biden / 48% Barnum / 6% Undecided
On 6/3, average of polls in Iowa (6) showed: 48% Barnum / 46% Biden / 6% Undecided
- On 6/17, average of polls in Iowa showed 45% Biden / 46% Barnum / 9% Undecided
- On 7/27, average of polls in Iowa showed 48% Biden / 46% Barnum / 6% Undecided
https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/
In my amateur opinion, this state's polling results that have to give DT Barnum's campaign the biggest headache:
https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/florida/ 6 of 8 polls have Biden sitting at 50% or more. Of the 5 polls of "Likely Voters," 4 of them have him at 50% or higher. If Barnum cannot collect Florida's 29 electoral votes, the path to re-election is incredibly difficult . . . if not impossible.
I'm not surprised that Wisconsin and North Carolina appear to be "tightening up."
Even though Arizona's polls have Biden in the lead, I am skeptical that Arizona will turn blue. But, damn, recent polling in Arizona has to be concerning to Barnum's camp:
https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/arizona/