Ranking recruiting classes by offers instead of stars

May 17, 2021
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Unsurprisingly, there are a couple of ISU trolls who continue to talk down Iowa’s recruiting classes, esp 23 and 24, and make comparisons based on stars and rivals “team rankings”.

I actually think that the “team rankings “are only half meaningful, because usually the size of the recruiting class ends up distorting the quality. Makes the rankings somewhat silly at times. Just because certain teams have very uneven recruiting classes makes them jump up and down the rankings from year to year and it’s just a mess, so much noise in that data.

I realize that star rankings usually take into account offers - number of and prestige of programs - But what strikes me this year is the surprising similarity between star rankings of iowa and isu, but as a couple of Hawkeye posters have pointed out, the difference between the level of offers that Iowa State’s recruits have gotten compared to ours is absolutely staggering. In terms of offers, iOS recruits are two or three levels above Iowa State‘s, except for their quarterback, whom Iowa actually took a pass on and got their top target.

Has anybody made an attempt to quantify the quality of offers and rank recruits that way, not merely star rankings?

I never take a 5.5 3* very seriously if he’s got a couple of very low D1 offers compared to some two stars, who might get a couple of higher offers but never have their ranking raised, or a 5.6 3star who got a dozen high or mid division one offers.

As a matter fact, I almost always try to ignore the star rating and just look at who else has offered. Anyone else the same?

seems like services like rivals want to trust their own expertise in evaluating recruits and assigning stars, and view offers secondarily from teams whose coaches obviously are much better at evaluating talent, Especially because they get to evaluate them face-to-face and work with them, rather than look at videos or maaaybe catch a game live (rarely). Rivals evaluations are a spectator sport, but coaches’ evaluations and offers are the real thing.
 
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May 17, 2021
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I actually barely pay attention to Iowa State anymore, just noticed a couple of cyclones fans claiming that Iowas ‘23 class isn’t very “special“, and on par with Iowa State.

i’m just raising the larger issue of the class rankings and the methodology based on rivals stars being unreliable. I’d like to see recruiting classes compared based on the prestige and numbers of offers instead, because frankly, I trust coaches so much more than recruiting gurus, Even though information from recruiting gurus can be entertaining.

I just want reliable data and nothing is more reliable than the caliber and number of offers a recruit has garnered.
 

DodgerHawki

HR Heisman
Nov 19, 2002
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I actually barely pay attention to Iowa State anymore, just noticed a couple of cyclones fans claiming that Iowas ‘23 class isn’t very “special“, and on par with Iowa State.

i’m just raising the larger issue of the class rankings and the methodology based on rivals stars being unreliable. I’d like to see recruiting classes compared based on the prestige and numbers of offers instead, because frankly, I trust coaches so much more than recruiting gurus, Even though information from recruiting gurus can be entertaining.

I just want reliable data and nothing is more reliable than the caliber and number of offers a recruit has garnered.
Recruiting data is inexact. The services have improved a whole lot on differentiating between 5, 4 and 3 -star players in the last 20 years, mostly because more analysts review guys and more of the kids are going to camps where they compete directly against other good players. But football, more than any other sport, has a bunch of development that happens once the player gets on campus.

Offers from other schools is an indicator, just like the size/speed combo is an indicator and the game video is an indicator. Iowa seems to have got into a good niche where they are able to lock in on guys who they think will fit and turn into good players. This is especially so on defense. Iowa has a ton of guys who were good and had lots of other offers. Other guys were good and didn't have many. Linderbaum and Wirfs were great. They were great in high school and great athletes. They both committed early so they were never going to show many offers. Does that mean Iowa shouldn't have recruited them? Of course not. Same with a guy like Aaron Graves. Is a 4 or 5-star type athlete, but committed to Iowa as a freshman from a tiny school so his offer list was not great.

Anyway, it's one of those things where context has to be considered. Other offers is definitely an indicator, but isn't the be all, end all.
 
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Clermonthawk

Team MVP
Nov 11, 2002
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If I had the time to sit around and analyze the difference between a 5.5 and a 5.6 rating for a
high school athlete, all things considered, I'd pick up my rod and reel and go fishing.
 
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LampoonYou

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Jun 10, 2021
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If I had the time to sit around and analyze the difference between a 5.5 and a 5.6 rating for a
high school athlete, all things considered, I'd pick up my rod and reel and go fishing.
So true! It’s not the rating you start your college career with, it’s how you develop and how you rate when leaving. That said it’s nice to have well rated kids who are multi sport athletes that will embrace the grind and development. This is what make the U of Iowa steady although not flashy. My Christmas wish is to have an offense that imposes it’s will at any given moment of the game. If we need to do that with higher rated offensive specialists with NIL money then so be it.
 
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jthawk

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This caused me to try to remember the last time I read a post from a Cyclone fan. After thinking about it for a few minutes, and not being able to remember, I suddenly realized.....Who cares??
 

SoFla-Hawkeye

HR Heisman
Nov 12, 2001
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Offers are self-reported. Ive watched kids down here play and then looked at their “blessed to receive an offer from…” tweets. Not everyone is honest.
 

zella

HR MVP
Oct 4, 2001
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By the recruiting rankings Iowa should finish a record between 11-2 or 9-4 and Iowa State between 8-5 to 6-7.
 

Heathen Raider

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Offers mean nothing as someone said many are self reported and not actual or committable, Visits are a better metric. School brings a kid in for an Official then in most cases the offer is there and until the LOI is signed it is the wild wild west anyway .
 

Hawk_4shur

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Jan 2, 2009
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No one gets hardware for recruiting rankings.

The very idea of a recruiting service being able to accurately rank a thousand high school sophomores and juniors is pretty wild. And to have fans get concerned over the team ranking of "30" vs "25" is really silly.

Kudos to those kids that have the talent to get a bunch of stars and get noticed. But, their work is just beginning.
 
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zella

HR MVP
Oct 4, 2001
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No one gets hardware for recruiting rankings.

The very idea of a recruiting service being able to accurately rank a thousand high school sophomores and juniors is pretty wild. And to have fans get concerned over the team ranking of "30" vs "25" is really silly.

Kudos to those kids that have the talent to get a bunch of stars and get noticed. But, their work is just beginning.
Well said. Texas falls into the category of high rankings and no results to back up there high recruit rankings.
 

MitchLL

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Dec 26, 2018
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I've noticed where kids report an offer and then end up a PWO. I guess that's an offer.

I'd bet my left nut Iowa ends ranked higher than Ames CC when all is said and done.

A commitment from KP virtually guarantees that. Clones massive underperformance in 2021 didn't help them on the recruiting trail.
 
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LOLOLOLOLOL
It’s true, and a lot of the reason is because there is about 1/10 the amount of discussion on these boards about the cyclones. And that is because probably 1/10th of the number of cyclone trolls post on these boards anymore because unlike last year, when they were riding the hype train and reality didn’t hit the fan yet, they had thought they had passed the Hawkeyes by.

then the b12 broke up, iowa broke down isu in Ames, and isu broke with the aau, any one of which would be enough to demolish any remaining delusions of cyclones fans that Iowa State is on par with Iowa in any category, but all three of them were just devastating for cyclones fans, and that is the truth.

I honestly wasn’t even thinking about Iowa State recruiting class until a few posters were injecting their opinions about Iowa State‘s class into discussions about Iowa’s huge recruiting weekend.

And having looked at the rivals class rankings, and then glancing at the offer lists, it’s struck me as in and obvious example of the deficiencies in stars to rank classes alone.

Offers also can be deceptive as a percepted poster appointed up above, especially with someone like Erin Graves who really never even entertained offers from elsewhere and committed so early he didn’t have a chance to make the rounds and be offered by absolutely everyone, which they would have. That guy will be starting at Ohio State or Alabama or wherever you want. But still, by and large, offer list for me are the gold standard to see an athletes potential, even while knowing that character is, at this level, as important as raw talent. Or more. And it does make me proud to know that Iowa always puts character higher than raw talent when they evaluate and offer players. And part of that character is being a good student. We lose sight of the fact that this is a University and these are students and their work in the classroom is as important as their work as an athlete.
 
May 17, 2021
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I've noticed where kids report an offer and then end up a PWO. I guess that's an offer.

I'd bet my left nut Iowa ends ranked higher than Ames CC when all is said and done.

A commitment from KP virtually guarantees that. Clones massive underperformance in 2021 didn't help them on the recruiting trail.
My point is that it doesn’t really matter because if you actually look at the offer lists, even a few of the three star athletes committed to the cyclones have offers from exactly no one relevant, a couple of bottom feeder microbudget programs…. and isu.

right now Iowa is going head to head with Wisconsin, recruiting a level above Nebraska, head to head with Michigan State who always seems to recruit well, and that’s the real competition.

The game with Iowa State is just the obligatory spoiler test every year. All that the cyclones can play from now on is annoying spoiler. So Innoway it’s fine, just not on the level of competition with the Big Ten and the big boys in the country.

but back to the point of a thread: it’s been many many years since I’ve been so impressed with the offer lists of an Iowa recruiting class, whether the recruit is a three star or a four-star currently committed. Very very impressive group of young men!

Anyone else who commits from now on to me are just expanding upon an already awesome class. Doesn’t matter that most of them are three stars, because it really seems that they should be ranked higher based on their offer lists.
 

nu2u

HR Legend
Aug 10, 2006
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Recruiting data is inexact. The services have improved a whole lot on differentiating between 5, 4 and 3 -star players in the last 20 years, mostly because more analysts review guys and more of the kids are going to camps where they compete directly against other good players. But football, more than any other sport, has a bunch of development that happens once the player gets on campus.

Offers from other schools is an indicator, just like the size/speed combo is an indicator and the game video is an indicator. Iowa seems to have got into a good niche where they are able to lock in on guys who they think will fit and turn into good players. This is especially so on defense. Iowa has a ton of guys who were good and had lots of other offers. Other guys were good and didn't have many. Linderbaum and Wirfs were great. They were great in high school and great athletes. They both committed early so they were never going to show many offers. Does that mean Iowa shouldn't have recruited them? Of course not. Same with a guy like Aaron Graves. Is a 4 or 5-star type athlete, but committed to Iowa as a freshman from a tiny school so his offer list was not great.

Anyway, it's one of those things where context has to be considered. Other offers is definitely an indicator, but isn't the be all, end all.
It seems to me that Ferentz adds another layer over the top: character/work ethic, etc. The so-called "intangibles". Kirk has mentioned this a few times over the years. It probably isn;t as big a factor for elite targets but it seems that this is a igher priority item for lower ranked or lightly recruited guys with late offers and walk-on athletes.
 
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It seems to me that Ferentz adds another layer over the top: character/work ethic, etc. The so-called "intangibles". Kirk has mentioned this a few times over the years. It probably isn;t as big a factor for elite targets but it seems that this is a igher priority item for lower ranked or lightly recruited guys with late offers and walk-on athletes.
Exactly!

Other programs in fb and bb cut corners or sell out for “talent”, but Kirk and Fran almost always find high character guys who value family, team, university, community. Beautiful to see.
 

iahawkeyes17

HR Heisman
Apr 22, 2014
7,519
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No one gets hardware for recruiting rankings.

The very idea of a recruiting service being able to accurately rank a thousand high school sophomores and juniors is pretty wild. And to have fans get concerned over the team ranking of "30" vs "25" is really silly.

Kudos to those kids that have the talent to get a bunch of stars and get noticed. But, their work is just beginning.
Don't tell that to Husker fans. It's the only thing they can brag about anymore these days because there is nothing that happens on the field they can boast about.
 

SoFla-Hawkeye

HR Heisman
Nov 12, 2001
6,768
8,354
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What's an Iowa State?...

That is an IOWA state on the right. Oh, and that's a Neblander on the left!

Leave+it+to++Beaver+S01+E13+-+Voodoo+Magic+%252810%2529+copy.jpg
 
May 17, 2021
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With proctor committing, the remarkable thing about his offer list is that it’s not just a who’s who of college football, But also who isn’t. Not just the schools who never offered him because they knew they had no chance, but the number of schools that he just almost immediately asked, including programs even closer to his home than Iowa.

I was surprised it came down to Iowa and Alabama. I thought it would’ve been down to Ohio State and Iowa, or maybe Notre Dame.