RE: recruiting - Ferentz truly is a Belichick protege

[ghostOfHomer777]

The following is an excerpt from an article about Belichick's success in managing personnel. You can find the article here.

"Belichick basically makes two sorts of trades: He trades you a pick now for a pick that’s guaranteed to be better later, like when he dealt a third-rounder to the Panthers in 2010 for a second-rounder the following year. Failing that, the Patriots trade down and deal one pick for several selections, taking advantage of the league’s level of overcertainty in evaluation and its tendency to underestimate the value of midround picks. The 2013 trade with the Vikings that sent a first-rounder to Minnesota for second-, third-, fourth-, and seventh-round picks is a classic Belichick swap and one the Patriots are very happy to have made two years later."

While Iowa will certainly "invest" in trying to land highly-rated recruits ... Ferentz really seems to value exploiting the college recruiting equivalents of midround picks. In fact, he goes one step further ... because there are far more high school football players out there (than college players entering the NFL draft) and because there is typically far more uncertainty involved in evaluating such talent ... there consequently are a huge number of high quality recruits who "fall in the cracks" and are underestimated by most colleges. At Iowa, Ferentz encourages his staff to find some of those very guys.

 

[desihawk]

Agreed. Ferentz needs to up his strike rate though. If he improves by even 10% (let's say that results in 2 more 4-star equivalents per year) Iowa will be beating the hell out of everyone in the West.

 

[icwesthawk]

Sounds good but I'd sure like to see a few more highly rated kids come to Iowa especially after all the money we spent on facilities.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Sounds good but I'd sure like to see a few more highly rated kids come to Iowa especially after all the money we spent on facilities.

Upgrades in facilities, as much as anything, were simply a means of keeping up with the Jones's. Hopefully it continues to help in recruiting. However, winning and the production of NFL-ready talent is what usually gets highly touted guys to sign in February (at least for Iowa).

Thus, if you note our recruiting in '06 and '07 ... just as you suggest, if we get some 4-star guys like a Bulaga, Clayborn, and Ballard ... they help give the engine a little extra octane. However, the glue-guys like an Edds ... the "midround picks" like Sash, McNutt, Vandervelde, DJK, and Stanzi ... they help to keep the engine purring. But the guys who've tended to help make Iowa transition from good to great ... those are the under-recruited guys (the 2-star guys) and the walk-ons ... they're the guys that help keep the squad hungry and with the right "chip" on their shoulders. Here we're talking about guys like Donahue (2-star by rivals), Morse, Klug, Greenwood, Spievey, Daniels, Murphy, Murray, Haganman, and Geary ... their contributions cannot be underestimated.

 

[milehighhawkeye24]

There are not too many highly rated kids that are willing to work as hard as some of the undervalued chip on shoulder type kids, that just doesn't fly at Iowa and I am fine with that. There just are not too many 4-5 * kids that do not feel entitled and therefore not many would "fit" at Iowa. Which actually makes me even more of a fan of our program while others seem to hinge the programs success on the recruiting rankings as opposed to seeing how they pan out in 4-5 years. To each their own I suppose, but I generally tend to enjoy Iowa football more than the latter of the two examples

 

[mvhomerj]

Do 4* and 5* kids work hard to get that rating? If so, why wouldn't they keep that up to get to the next level... NFL?

 

[PHXIowaClub]

saying there aren't a lot of 4 and 5 star kids out there that work hard is laughable.

 

[Hawk_82]

saying there aren't a lot of 4 and 5 star kids out there that work hard is laughable.

i think your missing the point. those "can't miss recruits" who possess the desired work ethic, attitude, grades etc. are also recruited by the osu, Michigan, Alabama, Texas, and the other blue blood schools. so the players iowa wants are also a very high priority for the best schools in the nation. it really has to be a perfect storm for iowa to even be considered by a 5 star recruit

 

[Suterman]

i think your missing the point. those "can't miss recruits" who possess the desired work ethic, attitude, grades etc. are also recruited by the osu, Michigan, Alabama, Texas, and the other blue blood schools. so the players iowa wants are also a very high priority for the best schools in the nation. it really has to be a perfect storm for iowa to even be considered by a 5 star recruit

Like it or not, this is our reality.

 

[LakeviewHawkeye]

Y

Like it or not, this is our reality.

While this is absolutely true, to suggest Iowa isn't recruiting more 4 and 5 guys because those recruits don't work hard or are entitled as the previous poster did is absurd. Lack of mutual interest is the reason Iowa doesn't recruit the vast majority of those guys. Just like everyone else, Iowa goes after the best guys they think they can get.

Regarding Belicheck, his approach is driven by the constraints of the salary cap and almost always picking at the bottom of each round in the draft. It's all about collecting as much talent as possible for your system. Remove those constraints and his approach would be very different.

 

[mazda1]

To me the 4 stars are often guys with a similar talent level as high three stars, but have the measurable size to be ready to play at a college level.

The required development in the weight room is essential for the Hawkeye's, and the 4 stars often have less work to do in that area. They project to being on the field quicker and offer greater depth to the blue bloods because of that.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Regarding Belicheck, his approach is driven by the constraints of the salary cap and almost always picking at the bottom of each round in the draft. It's all about collecting as much talent as possible for your system. Remove those constraints and his approach would be very different.

Absolutely - if you're not constrained by roster number or by salary cap ... then you simply stockpile talent. That's what happened before with many of the old elites in college football ... their success and exposure permitted them to stockpile talent. It's essentially what I refer to as the S. Cerevisiae strategy - consume all you can ... and everybody else is left with the scraps (of course, the microbe also poisons their environment with alcohol in the process).

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

While this is absolutely true, to suggest Iowa isn't recruiting more 4 and 5 guys because those recruits don't work hard or are entitled as the previous poster did is absurd. Lack of mutual interest is the reason Iowa doesn't recruit the vast majority of those guys. Just like everyone else, Iowa goes after the best guys they think they can get.

For the most part, I think that you're completely correct. Iowa sends out mailers to essentially ALL of the top talent. However, their continued pursuit of a guy is dependent on whether the guy is perceived as a "fit" for the program AND whether the guy shows reciprocal interest. It's a misuse of resources if you go after guys who aren't genuinely returning your interest.

What IS so amusing is that seemingly a lot of Iowa fans (particularly those who take issue with Ferentz) think that Iowa doesn't go after highly rated recruits. However, that certainly is NOT the case. The scenario unfolds just as I mentioned above. Thus, unlike what folks seem to think - that Iowa's recruiters are "lazy" ... typically the opposite has been said about Iowa in recruiting. Many recruits, at least in the past, have stated that Iowa is the school that has sent them the most mailers, tried to remain in contact with them the most, and "recruited them the hardest." Those are hardly signs of a program that is lazy when it comes to recruiting.

However, given that Iowa is routinely described as a program that doesn't "sugar-coat" things ... it's no surprise that Iowa doesn't receive reciprocal interest from a lot of guys. There is a definite tendency among youth these days to feel that if something doesn't seem to come easily to you - then you must not be good at it. Consequently, such young people just "give up" ... and don't further pursue those avenues that present them with a challenge.

 

[Bill_D]

The following is an excerpt from an article about Belichick's success in managing personnel. You can find the article here.

"Belichick basically makes two sorts of trades: He trades you a pick now for a pick that’s guaranteed to be better later, like when he dealt a third-rounder to the Panthers in 2010 for a second-rounder the following year. Failing that, the Patriots trade down and deal one pick for several selections, taking advantage of the league’s level of overcertainty in evaluation and its tendency to underestimate the value of midround picks. The 2013 trade with the Vikings that sent a first-rounder to Minnesota for second-, third-, fourth-, and seventh-round picks is a classic Belichick swap and one the Patriots are very happy to have made two years later."

While Iowa will certainly "invest" in trying to land highly-rated recruits ... Ferentz really seems to value exploiting the college recruiting equivalents of midround picks. In fact, he goes one step further ... because there are far more high school football players out there (than college players entering the NFL draft) and because there is typically far more uncertainty involved in evaluating such talent ... there consequently are a huge number of high quality recruits who "fall in the cracks" and are underestimated by most colleges. At Iowa, Ferentz encourages his staff to find some of those very guys.

Are does he look for those players because he can't get any 4* players to play for Iowa? But the way Iowa recruits he does exploit 2 things. One is there are some 2* & 3* players that have the "potential" to be able to play and compete in the B1G and since these players are not as advanced as Rivals 250 players they stay around longer. So Iowa has the advantage of fielding some mature, experienced players who play well as a team. To me this is the "process" at Iowa.

Losing 3 or more 3 year players every year to the NFL is damaging. You lose a serious amount of experience and leadership as well as talent such as Fournette, Jamal Adams and DT Godchaux. This is why 3-5
freshmen wind up in the 2 deep. Then they leave in 3-4 years. It is kind of a rat race.

LSU has raised their talent level to about 27 elite players from a low of 17 in 2013. You need about 30 to compete for a NC. I think we are getting close.

AL does not have a problem as LSU does. AL has 40 or more elite players and have had for a number of years. Because of this they do not play freshmen that much their stars stay 4 years. They field a more mature team with experienced leadership and talent than any other team. They have been favored in all but 4 games from the beginning of the 2008 season. Three of those games they won. It is a wonder they have lost any. At least as long as Saban is there AL is the force with which to be reckoned.

 

[Phenomenally Frantastic]

All this conjecture aside, i'd still rather go out there with a Deshaun Watson or Ezekiel Elliot.

Shonn Greene in 2008 was a thing of beauty.

 

[kentadel]

KF will need to step it up, Nebby so far has 19 4 star recruits, which includes 15 of the rivals top 250, and 8 3 stars visiting for their spring game. Signing them is one thing but that is an impressive visit list.

 

[fan fav]

KF will need to step it up, Nebby so far has 19 4 star recruits, which includes 15 of the rivals top 250, and 8 3 stars visiting for their spring game. Signing them is one thing but that is an impressive visit list.

9 of their 20 recruits in 2016 went to that game.

 

[milehighhawkeye24]

saying there aren't a lot of 4 and 5 star kids out there that work hard is laughable.

Not sure what is so funny, I have experience coaching 13 players who have signed division 1 scholarships. The 4 stars (never had 5 star) that I had the opportunity to work with (3 of them) only one of them had what I would consider a strong work ethic. The other 2 simply relied on their freakishly god given ability. Not sure what is so funny about a statement in which I have first hand experience with.

 

[K OKeefe]

The following is an excerpt from an article about Belichick's success in managing personnel. You can find the article here.

"Belichick basically makes two sorts of trades: He trades you a pick now for a pick that’s guaranteed to be better later, like when he dealt a third-rounder to the Panthers in 2010 for a second-rounder the following year. Failing that, the Patriots trade down and deal one pick for several selections, taking advantage of the league’s level of overcertainty in evaluation and its tendency to underestimate the value of midround picks. The 2013 trade with the Vikings that sent a first-rounder to Minnesota for second-, third-, fourth-, and seventh-round picks is a classic Belichick swap and one the Patriots are very happy to have made two years later."

While Iowa will certainly "invest" in trying to land highly-rated recruits ... Ferentz really seems to value exploiting the college recruiting equivalents of midround picks. In fact, he goes one step further ... because there are far more high school football players out there (than college players entering the NFL draft) and because there is typically far more uncertainty involved in evaluating such talent ... there consequently are a huge number of high quality recruits who "fall in the cracks" and are underestimated by most colleges. At Iowa, Ferentz encourages his staff to find some of those very guys.

It sounds good on paper, but I do not see Iowa winning championships at a rate that is even remotely close to the Patriots. Therefore, what works in the NFL is not translating to the college level. Belichick has shown that NFL teams do not need flashy free agents to win championships. OSU, Alabama, Clemson, etc... have shown you need plenty of 4 and 5 star recruits to win championships.

 

[Philly Hawk]

Lack of mutual interest is the reason Iowa doesn't recruit the vast majority of those guys

I agree, but I don't think we help ourselves much as far as attracting attention or creating an appealing
image is concerned. Obviously winning is the biggest factor, but close behind that is having a dynamic
offense and not having losses to far inferior teams.

 

[LakeviewHawkeye]

Agreed. Iowa's scheme on offense has worked against them historically, particularly for highly ranked WRs. I hope this will change with BF at OC, at least enough to start bringing in average BIG WRs.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Agreed. Iowa's scheme on offense has worked against them historically, particularly for highly ranked WRs. I hope this will change with BF at OC, at least enough to start bringing in average BIG WRs.

I genuinely wonder how much of this is purely perception. Suppose Iowa ran the exact same offense, but Iowa's WRs dropped fewer balls and some of them saw tangible success in the NFL. Wouldn't the perception of Iowa's WR play be dramatically different? Wouldn't we be on the receiving end (pun intended) of more WR talent in the recruiting game?

If you want evidence, look no further than Michigan State's offense. Alternatively, look at the Pitt O under Wanny ... or the PSU O under O'Brien. In each case, you're looking at pro-style Os .... and squads that managed to lure in more high-end WRs than Iowa's managed to lure. Why? It wasn't style of play!

If you look at MSU ... they do have a tradition with WRs. That tradition has reaped rewards and they continue to man their WR corps with really nice talent. However, geography really does hurt either. Dantonio is also perceived as being a "players coach" too ... rather than Ferentz, who is perhaps viewed more as a father-figure type.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

It sounds good on paper, but I do not see Iowa winning championships at a rate that is even remotely close to the Patriots. Therefore, what works in the NFL is not translating to the college level. Belichick has shown that NFL teams do not need flashy free agents to win championships. OSU, Alabama, Clemson, etc... have shown you need plenty of 4 and 5 star recruits to win championships.

You're inferring causation from correlation. That's a massive statistical no-no. Please try again.

Look at Ohio State ... look at Alabama ... one of the key things that they have in common is elite coaching. Both Meyer and Saban are known as two of the best in the biz. On top of that ... they're not afraid of living on the edge of the rules. They're not too unlike Carroll in that regard ... and Carroll was also another one of those guys who was an elite college coach (turns out he's a pretty decent pro coach too).

Elite coaching brings success ... success brings exposure ... exposure brings excitement to the program ... and the combination of exposure and excitement bring the recruits in droves. If the elite coaching can still connect with the high-end recruits that they bring in droves ... then the process becomes relatively self-sustaining.

 

[HawkIDrummer]

analogies aren't for everybody...

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

analogies aren't for everybody...

Care to elaborate?

 

[LakeviewHawkeye]

I genuinely wonder how much of this is purely perception. Suppose Iowa ran the exact same offense, but Iowa's WRs dropped fewer balls and some of them saw tangible success in the NFL. Wouldn't the perception of Iowa's WR play be dramatically different? Wouldn't we be on the receiving end (pun intended) of more WR talent in the recruiting game?

If you want evidence, look no further than Michigan State's offense. Alternatively, look at the Pitt O under Wanny ... or the PSU O under O'Brien. In each case, you're looking at pro-style Os .... and squads that managed to lure in more high-end WRs than Iowa's managed to lure. Why? It wasn't style of play!

If you look at MSU ... they do have a tradition with WRs. That tradition has reaped rewards and they continue to man their WR corps with really nice talent. However, geography really does hurt either. Dantonio is also perceived as being a "players coach" too ... rather than Ferentz, who is perhaps viewed more as a father-figure type.

One big difference between Iowa and MSU you left out is MSU has generally been compentent throwing the ball. Iowa was consistently bad (or very bad) under Greg Davis, with one exception in 2015. This isn't just perception, there are plenty of stats that demonstrate Iowa's passing game was bad, not to mention Greg Davis' 'retirement'. It's naive to think the bad results and lack of NFL receivers don't impact recruiting.

That said, Iowa will very likely never excel at recruiting top WRs. That's OK. But, to compete consistently, they do need a receiving core that is on par with the other non-elite BIG schools. That means they can't have a passing game other programs can use against them in the recruiting process. Especially when geography will always be a challenge. IMO, consistently having below average WR talent is the difference between averaging 7 or 8 wins a year and 9 or 10.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

One big difference between Iowa and MSU you left out is MSU has generally been compentent throwing the ball. Iowa was consistently bad (or very bad) under Greg Davis, with one exception in 2015. This isn't just perception, there are plenty of stats that demonstrate Iowa's passing game was bad, not to mention Greg Davis' 'retirement'. It's naive to think the bad results and lack of NFL receivers don't impact recruiting.

That said, Iowa will very likely never excel at recruiting top WRs. That's OK. But, to compete consistently, they do need a receiving core that is on par with the other non-elite BIG schools. That means they can't have a passing game other programs can use against them in the recruiting process. Especially when geography will always be a challenge. IMO, consistently having below average WR talent is the difference between averaging 7 or 8 wins a year and 9 or 10.

Iowa's passing numbers weren't bad during EITHER the '14 or '15 seasons. However, I agree that Iowa's passing O wasn't as good under Greg Davis compared to how it was under Ken O'Keefe.

But, the argument about Iowa recruiting WRs has little to do with what our scheme as been over the past 5 years. In terms of formation and overarching perspective ... Iowa's offense is still fundamentally similar to what its always been under Ferentz. And, not surprisingly, we've largely relied upon converting high-potential athletes into WRs ... rather than taking elite WRs and letting them further hone their craft.

However, if you look at Iowa's QBs ... we've had the likes of Brad Banks, Drew Tate, Ricky Stanzi, and CJ Beathard. That's not a bad group of college QBs - they've been more than competent and passing the ball. If you look at MSU QBs ... you're looking at Stanton, Hoyer, Cousins, and Cook. They're definitely an excellent group too. However, as college QBs go ... MSU's guys aren't any quantum leap ahead of Iowa's guys.

So my lone point is that SCHEME isn't the reason why MSU has managed to get better WRs than Iowa has gotten. Also, I totally agree with you about the difference a more competent group of WRs would make as it relates to our overall record. It would certainly translate to the W-L column.