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Reason for hope on Offense

ghostOfHomer777

HR Heisman
May 20, 2014
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Since Brian took over as our run-game coordinator (2013), Iowa's rushing O has been at its most consistent EVER during Kirk's entire tenure as head coach. Maybe some credit here is due to Greg Davis - I'm not certain. However, I do know that when Greg was in charge of running game, Iowa's average number of rushing yards per game was 50 ypg lower than it was with Brian as run-game coordinator.

However, as Iowa fans are acutely aware, Iowa's passing game has been the biggest issue since Greg took over. With Greg at the helm, Iowa's passing O has managed to average over 200 ypg only twice in a span of 5 years. Thus, only 40% of the seasons under Greg would we get 200 ypg or higher. In contrast, 76.9% of seasons under O'Keefe, the Hawks would average 200 ypg or higher. What is the implication here? Perhaps O'Keefe's system in the passing game is easier for WRs to understand? Perhaps the reads are easier for the QB?

So, my question is this ... with O'Keefe mentoring Brian in the passing game AND with Brian still at the helm of the running game ... are we going to see the "best of both worlds?" Or is there a caveat? Maybe Greg's passing game sucked at Iowa ... but it at least opened up the running game? I don't really buy it ... but it is a possibility. Similarly, maybe O'Keefe's passing game is good at Iowa ... but maybe it makes it easier to defend Iowa's running game? Again, I don't really buy that scenario either - we've seen plenty of evidence with O'Keefe offenses where the running game could be perfectly proficient (although it certainly seemed to be personnel-dependent).

Here is what I do know about O'Keefe passing games ... even in Kirk's first year in '99 ... the Hawk passing game still managed to average 206.8 ypg. That suggests that O'Keefe's passing game can be installed rather quickly. Iowa's worst passing year under O'Keefe was the '03 season ... and that year the WR personnel was comparable to the '16 WR personnel, the TEs may even have been weaker (in the receiving game), AND O'Keefe also had Nathan Chandler as a first-year starter! The '03 injury to Mo Brown was a close analog to the '16 injury to Matt VandeBerg. All the same, the '03 passing O still averaged 8 yards per game MORE than the '16 passing O!

In addition, there is other "NEW BLOOD" on the coaching staff for the Hawks on the offensive side of the ball. Kelton, the WR coach, is a protege of Jerry Kill ... an offensive-minded guy. Kelton was a QB as a player - and a mobile QB who set school records for rushing yards. Tim, the OL coach, was an OC for two years at NDSU and was also a passing-game coordinator for a time while at Wisconsin-Stevens Point. Tim also was a QB as a player - a prolific passing QB who set school records in several categories. Knowing how Kirk runs the program - he gives his assistant coaches great freedom - and they all get input into what Iowa does. The point here being that the "NEW BLOOD" could help influence Brian and impact the finished product that we see on the field. Heck, even O'Keefe, with his experiences with the Dolphins ... he's an old dog who's presumably learned some new tricks. Thus, the passing O likely won't be O'Keefe version 2.0.

While the '17 season necessarily will be a "transition year" for the passing game - and with it will come the usual problems associated with "transition years," there is also the advantage that opposing Ds will need new film in order to adapt to whatever might be Iowa's new tendencies. While I am tempering my expectations ... I still believe that in the longer-term things are looking brighter for the Iowa O!
 
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Although it is possible, it seems unlikely the passing game would be worse than the putrid performance of last year. If they even just improve slightly at wide receiver and utilization of Fant as a receiver at TE, enough to keep defenses honest when it comes to the primary offensive threat which is Wadley, they could be more productive.
 
I wish I knew what to expect as far as "changes" given the roster...something tells me it will be less consistent rushing, but the passing has nowhere to go but up.

How those translate to "effectiveness"...no clue.
 
Although it is possible, it seems unlikely the passing game would be worse than the putrid performance of last year. If they even just improve slightly at wide receiver and utilization of Fant as a receiver at TE, enough to keep defenses honest when it comes to the primary offensive threat which is Wadley, they could be more productive.
Usually performance issues on a team correlate with adversity faced by the team. When a team has really good leadership and has developed some depth ... sometimes they can overcome that adversity.

As for such correlations relating to Iowa's O:
'04: The Hawks effectively had ZERO rushing game (72.6 ypg). Why? Well, injuries and inexperience on the OL didn't help ... and similarly, Iowa faced a massive wave of injuries at RB (we may have observed the birth of AIRBHG that season). Given that Sam Brownlee was our top RB option for a time ... that tells the story.

'07: The Hawks were crazily young/inexperienced on the OL, we were featuring a new starting QB (Jake Christensen), AND, on top of all that, our 2 top receiving options (Brodell and Moeaki) went down to injury before conference play started. As a result, even with high-quality RBs like Young and Sims, our O had pretty poor production.

'12: The Hawks were learning a new system on O, had a lot of "newness" on the OL ... and two of the more promising O-linemen went down to injury in the Penn State game (Scherff and Donnal) ... and Iowa's season kinda went downhill from there. Also, Iowa was dangerously thin at RB ... and the '12 season marked the emergence of the Hebrew Hammer. Unfortunately, Weisman got injured toward the end of the MSU game ... and that didn't help us moving into that terrible affair against PSU.

'16: Beathard had limited mobility, our OL personnel was juggled with frequency due to injury, our top WR was lost early in the season, and Kittle's effectiveness was limited through much of the season due to injury. On top of all that, many Iowa fans would also argue that we were limited schematically as well ... since our passing game mostly tested defenses on the edges and failed to test the middle of the field OR to stretch the field vertically.

Thus, the point here being that if the Iowa O can endure just a moderate amount of adversity (more of just your "normal" rash of injuries and whatnot) ... then that alone could give the '17 O a leg up on their '16 counterpart. If the schemes manage to facilitate player-learning/execution OR make it harder for defenses to exploit our offensive susceptibilities ... then that's just gravy.
 
That '04 season was just nuts. They had no rushing game, and every team they faced knew it. That they accomplished what they did given that severe limitation makes it for me one of the best seasons of Ferentz coaching career at Iowa.
Hopefully the Iowa receiving game next year won't be the equivalent of that '04 rushing attack.
The passing offense was terrible last year. It really should be better.
Better could be excellent, or it could be mediocre. Excellent would be a very welcome surprise. If they could even just make the step up from terrible to mediocre with the passing attack I would expect that to change things significantly for the better on offense.
 
That '04 season was just nuts. They had no rushing game, and every team they faced knew it. That they accomplished what they did given that severe limitation makes it for me one of the best seasons of Ferentz coaching career at Iowa.
Hopefully the Iowa receiving game next year won't be the equivalent of that '04 rushing attack.
The passing offense was terrible last year. It really should be better.
Better could be excellent, or it could be mediocre. Excellent would be a very welcome surprise. If they could even just make the step up from terrible to mediocre with the passing attack I would expect that to change things significantly for the better on offense.
In '16, between Beathard's limited mobility (due to a bum leg) and all the shuffling on the OL ... we could let most pass plays develop for long enough. A healthy Stanley or Wiegers offers us an instant improvement in mobility ... a healthy Boyle could afford us a huge improvement in terms of mobility. Who is the best option in terms of passing the ball? I have no idea ... but Stanley's ascent in '16 suggests that he is the most well-rounded of the QBs. He also may have ascended the college QB learning curve faster than the others too ... which could give him a leg-up too.

Going into '16, it sounded like Jerminic Smith may not have approaching the season quite as he should ... and consequently he didn't make as big of developmental strides as we'd need. Given that we lost Tevaun and Jacob ... he probably assumed that he'd instantly be one of the top 2 WRs ... and that may have fed into his complacency. Furthermore, given that both Scheel and Falconer were hampered by injuries ... that didn't really push forward much competition for Jerminic either.

Entering '17, Iowa has a more blue-collar WR coach ... a guy from the Coach Kill school of football ... so you can be assured that the "right values" are going to be instilled into our WRs. Furthermore, with an influx of 4 (or potentially 5, counting Creamer) scholarship WRs entering the fray during the summer ... that could further ramp up the competition at WR. Not only will it force the "older guys" to teach the younger guys ... which will help them improve in the process ... several of the younger guys might prove to be very "hungry" and motivated and that could force the more experienced guys to develop more too.

A big question could be at TE ... although we know that Fant has high potential in the receiving game. However, maybe Wieting will make strides too ... the kid saw a lot of reps as a blocking TE in '16. Hockenson is another guy who could contribute ... he was a glorified WR in high school (put up prolific numbers too). Who knows what a healthy Wisnieski is capable of? In '13, Kittle impressed the coaches enough that he saw some quality reps even as a redshirt freshman ... and that was even with a TE unit that seemed pretty loaded (the group that year included Fiedorowicz, Hamilton, and an emerging Duzey). Could Beyer emulate Kittle's '13 production? Everything else notwithstanding, Iowa enters the '17 season with 4 TEs who have seen quality snaps in games.
 
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The TEs are back in business since GD retired and that is a BIG plus, especially since that position appears to have some of the best starting talent ever under KF (and that is saying something). Two more years of Stanley + Hockenson & Fant = success.
 
I don't understand the premise....we had a terrible run game this year---under BF.
 
I don't understand the premise....we had a terrible run game this year---under BF.
The original thread was written last spring. The sentiment being that Brian knows about developing a good running game. The problem was that in his first year as an OC ... the running game WAS underwhelming ... but I would surmise that a lot of that was likely attributable to the fact that the passing game was receiving a disproportionate amount of attention by the staff given how dismal the passing game wss last year.

Of course, on top of the above concern, the O had to contend with the catastrophic loss of 2 returning SR OTs ... and the fact that many of our blockers on the periphery (TEs and WRs) were newbies.

Lastly, most Ds focussed on stopping our running game and daring a first year starting QB to try to win games with our passing game.

Thus, while the evidence from season 1 of Brian's tenure as our OC didn't support my original hypothesis ... nor does it disprove it. We'll simply need to benefit from more data to see what ultimately is "the truth."
 
It seems to me there are patterns that don't get fixed for Iowa football and Iowa basketball, and it has a lot to do with the A.D.

Would Barry Alvarez allow the pattern to keep repeating itself, with the offensive issues in football?

Would he allow the lack of a point guard and defensive deficiency pattern over several years in basketball?

Our AD would. Our AD does half his job (the fund-raising half.)
 
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