Recession on the horizon?

[Herky T Hawk]

When we had two straight quarters of negative GDP growth earlier this year, which has been the textbook definition of a recession in the past. The Biden administration said that it wasn't a recession because of the low unemployment rate. In Q3 the GDP went back into positive territory. But now the layoffs and hiring freezes are coming in fast, especially big money white collar jobs at the large tech firms. Additionally there are starting to be layoffs in the shipping/transportation industry, usually a canary in the coal mine for the economy, as demand slows. Meanwhile the CPI seems to be falling while the interest rates are rising.

So, what says the MENSA members of HROT? Is there a recession coming?

 

[anon_b29nm7v7dwp6r]

When we had two straight quarters of negative GDP growth earlier this year, which has been the textbook definition of a recession in the past. The Biden administration said that it wasn't a recession because of the low unemployment rate. In Q3 the GDP went back into positive territory. But now the layoffs and hiring freezes are coming in fast, especially big money white collar jobs at the large tech firms. Additionally there are starting to be layoffs in the shipping/transportation industry, usually a canary in the coal mine for the economy, as demand slows. Meanwhile the CPI seems to be falling while the interest rates are rising.

So, what says the MENSA members of HROT? Is there a recession coming?

Yep. Long overdue. Economy was too hot for too long. Had to take the pill eventually….if you don’t want to do rate increases when times are good this is what happens… part of the normal business cycle that we artificially postponed over the past 6 years.

 

[alaskanseminole]

So, are we looking at a recession in 2023? If so, how bad and how long?

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

3 different paths the economy could take in 2023

Inflation is expected to slow in the coming months, but that could also mean the United States tips into a recession.

www.vox.com

 

[ironside1]

3 different paths the economy could take in 2023

Inflation is expected to slow in the coming months, but that could also mean the United States tips into a recession.

www.vox.com

Thanks for posting the article. It appears we are headed for a mild recession or soft landing.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Thanks for posting the article. It appears we are headed for a mild recession or soft landing.

Hope so…

 

[ericram]

Not a fan of what the fed did with interest rates as I do think we need to have a recession. Hopefully things can settle down soon.

 

[dgordo]

The fed is telling us they want a recession.

 

[GOHOX69]

Yes and it will be brutal.

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

Curious how the retail numbers shake out for the holidays. You sure couldn’t tell there was rampant inflation or a recession by looking at the shopping center parking lots.

 

[OrlandNole]

Hope so…

Assuming no major global disruptions (looking at you, Russia and China).

 

[franklinman]

When we had two straight quarters of negative GDP growth earlier this year, which has been the textbook definition of a recession in the past. The Biden administration said that it wasn't a recession because of the low unemployment rate. In Q3 the GDP went back into positive territory. But now the layoffs and hiring freezes are coming in fast, especially big money white collar jobs at the large tech firms. Additionally there are starting to be layoffs in the shipping/transportation industry, usually a canary in the coal mine for the economy, as demand slows. Meanwhile the CPI seems to be falling while the interest rates are rising.

So, what says the MENSA members of HROT? Is there a recession coming?

Na, super soft landing, a big nothing burder.